Real Estate Crash thread

[Tuckerman]

I just figured out I can move funds around in my 457, lets watch this thing sink like a stone now. No I had 100% in one fund for some reason I wounder if thats some kind of default.

[4matic]

I just figured out I can move funds around in my 457, lets watch this think sink like a stone now. No I had 100% in one fund for some reason I wounder if thats some kind of default.

What was the default fund?

[Tuckerman]

What was the default fund?

VT Vantagepoint MP All-Eq Grth

[4matic]

VT Vantagepoint MP All-Eq Grth

Not likely to be a default fund but you never know.

[Tuckerman]

Hold on, stock prices go up & down throughout the day. Mutual funds only go up & down on a daily basis?
But if funds are made up of a bunch of individual stocks won't the funds value change as well? If I move something in the am I'm stuck with that move even if I see that it looks like a bad move during the afternoon? Or can I cancel if I decide to?

I have not done much real work today.

[cramer]

25 years?? Why anchor yourself for that long? Is your job and marriage that secure. You'll never ever have to move, even for a career change? Shit, in the past ten years I've moved four times chasing better career oppurtunities, and I'm way older than most here.

No, my job is not that secure. I work for bofa, but have managed to last through 11 years of layoffs. My marriage, its ok, our sex life is non-existant if you must know. But we get it on every 6 months or so. We have a lovely daughter and I adore my wife and would never cheat on her besides xhamster.com (nsfw link). I would not change my job because it would require me to commute to SF. I did that for my previous job (2years) and it FUCKING SUCKED. I arrived at bart 1.5 hours before i had to be to work and I arrived home an hour after i got back on bart to go home. PERFECT lifestyle for a 23 year old buck working himself into alcoholism and ZERO responsibilities. Times have changed. I got married, had a kid, my commute is still shitty, but half of what it would be if i took more money and wanted to make 6 figures plus.

We live a simple life out in BFE with a newer house, that we can afford. We have a couple house payments in savings and if i get laid off i get 2 weeks of pay for every year ive worked there.

Im not looking for a career change. I keep educating myself. Sure, i could go pull 100+K in the city, but i dont live there. That does nothing for me. I'm not going to have anymore money in my account. i gotta pay for that commute, etc.

BOFA may kick me to the curb at some point, i dunno. They want you moving around, etc. But i'm an IT admin with a VP title and can touch any box on their network. I fix shit and the jobs they want me to move into are project bullshit.

Either way, you get my point.

actually i would like to anchor myself out here. Great schools for my kid, new developments and shopping centers and the houses cant drop much more. They are all new. They already dropped 60% in price over the last 6 years.

[Pow4Brains]

Are there any good residential only REITs out there? I think there's too much commercial space, but I would put my money behind apartment builders/operators.

Want to put your money where your mouth is?

[Benny Profane]

Well, duh.

No, seriously, I'm close to the grave, so I just want to fritter my hard earned savings away playing obscure investments. It's how I roll.

[4matic]

Hold on, stock prices go up & down throughout the day. Mutual funds only go up & down on a daily basis?
But if funds are made up of a bunch of individual stocks won't the funds value change as well? If I move something in the am I'm stuck with that move even if I see that it looks like a bad move during the afternoon? Or can I cancel if I decide to?
.

Answer is yes. Mutual funds are priced EOD (End of Day) to Net Asset Value (NAV). You can cancel or make a decision up to the last minute of trading each day as long as you get your order in before the bell and you will get the reference price for that day which is posted between 5-6pm Eastern every day and delivered through NASDAQ. It takes longer to price small cap and obscure funds because the data needs to be corrected and takes longer to verify.

http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.a...NASDAQFundData

Chances are good that my business prices your mutual fund. Fidelity tried hourly pricing on a few funds a couple decades ago to encourage trading but it never took off. At the inception of MF's Real-time pricing was much more difficult so the structure was set up for end of day and perhaps so they could be "sold" at a certain price each day.

ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds) are basically mutual funds but they are typically index based which makes them easy to price in real time (we do index valuation and pricing for some major indices also). Some times ETF's are backed by real assets and sometimes backed by performance bonds. Buyer beware because if the zombie apocalypse hits you might be left with nothing although that chance is extremely remote. That was the concern at the beginning of the ETF industry. The latest product is going to be portfolio managed ETF's administered by a fund manager and not an index. Not sure they will be successful.. Heck, there;s ETF's of ETF's now.. ETF's make money by charging very small amounts to your holdings each day which would add up to about .05% each year. Much less than mutual funds.

That's why when I'm looking to get into a fund I typically buy when the market is melting going into the close. Surprisingly, you can get some arbitrage benefit on International funds when there is a turnaround in US markets but that's foolish to assume.

Also, there have always been exchange traded mutual funds called Closed End Funds. These hold a fixed number of shares and trade plus or minus the NAV; whatever the market will bear.

Good luck!

[WICS]

Are there any good residential only REITs out there? I think there's too much commercial space, but I would put my money behind apartment builders/operators.

Two bellweathers are UDR and AIV.

IMHO, they are fully priced.

May possibly soon be looking, like all residential REITs, for more cheap money (think: equity) for asset purchases. Do work.



Best wishes, all.



cny .13

[Benny Profane]

Thanks. What's fully priced mean?

[WICS]

Thanks. What's fully priced mean?

AFAIK, it probably means every last newbie gaper jong has already longed the f*** out of it, NTTIAWWT.



Best wishes, all.

[Benny Profane]

Yeah, this whole REIT world seems to be run up steeply. Maybe time for a correction.

[cramer]

Renters Beware:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/...entry_id=86987

[cramer]

bay area had its best march for sales in 4 years. Seems like a decent sign for me. You would have thought the tax credit years would have been better.

http://www.mercurynews.com/real-esta...nclick_check=1

[4matic]

bay area had its best march for sales in 4 years. Seems like a decent sign for me. You would have thought the tax credit years would have been better.

http://www.mercurynews.com/real-esta...nclick_check=1

Dumb money Benny?:

"All-cash buyers and investors continue to be drawn in by the low prices.

Last month, all-cash buyers accounted for 27.8 percent of Bay Area sales, down from the record level of 30.5 percent in February. The monthly average is 11.7 percent. Absentee buyers, mostly investors, closed on 22.1 percent of transactions. The monthly average is 16.6 percent."

[Benny Profane]

Dumb money Benny?:

"All-cash buyers and investors continue to be drawn in by the low prices.

Last month, all-cash buyers accounted for 27.8 percent of Bay Area sales, down from the record level of 30.5 percent in February. The monthly average is 11.7 percent. Absentee buyers, mostly investors, closed on 22.1 percent of transactions. The monthly average is 16.6 percent."

Walking around with cash in your pocket isn't a sign of higher intellegence. Talk to all the geniuses who paid cash for junk in Florida two years ago.
Besides, over a quarter of sales for cash is hardly a sign of a healthy market.

[mcsquared]

Walking around with cash in your pocket isn't a sign of higher intellegence. Talk to all the geniuses who paid cash for junk in Florida two years ago.
Besides, over a quarter of sales for cash is hardly a sign of a healthy market.

Just curious, in your opinion Benny, when was the last time we had a healthy market? The Louisiana Purchase? And what would that market look like to you? Free houses at ski resorts for every cranky old man to live out their final days? I'm teasing you of course, but I am also seriously asking how you define a "healthy market".

[Tuckerman]

Wow I made like $100 maybe I should sell now.

[Benny Profane]

Just curious, in your opinion Benny, when was the last time we had a healthy market? The Louisiana Purchase? And what would that market look like to you? Free houses at ski resorts for every cranky old man to live out their final days? I'm teasing you of course, but I am also seriously asking how you define a "healthy market".

Oh, about 1995, when 20%down was considered normal.

[mcsquared]

Oh, about 1995, when 20%down was considered normal.

So 100% of buyers putting 20% down is healthy but 20% of buyers putting 100% down is a sign of the upcoming housing implosion?

http://johnmurphyreports.com/tag/cash-buyers/

The number of homes purchased with cash rose to 2,198 – 56.7% of all transactions – was the highest since at least 1994. The number of homes purchases financed with a mortgage fell to 1,681 – the lowest for any month since February 1995.

[Tuckerman]

when is a management fee of 1.43% too high? Is that a yearly fee? I see a fund that looks good but 1.43%?

[4matic]

when is a management fee of 1.43% too high? Is that a yearly fee? I see a fund that looks good but 1.43%?

Fees are annual and billed periodically or at a small percentage daily to add up to that fee.

You have to look at comparable fees to other funds in the category. Morningstar is a good source. Returns should be displayed after fees. There are also a lot of "hidden" fees so Morningstar is a good place to investigate.

For example, an SP500 index fund will have fees of around .05% while a managed fund with the SP500 as its benchmark might have fees of .50% (or more). You are paying .45% for a manager to beat the SP500 and typically less than 50% do.

Small cap and international funds will have higher management fees because, presumably, they require more work to analyze investments whereas most large cap names have plenty of existing fundamental data. That's a big advantage for ETF's in these categories but in these categories the performance of managers can very wildly.

Also be aware of trading fees, early exit fees, restriction periods. Etc.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/...aggon/0027.htm

[Benny Profane]

So 100% of buyers putting 20% down is healthy but 20% of buyers putting 100% down is a sign of the upcoming housing implosion?

http://johnmurphyreports.com/tag/cash-buyers/

In case you were out sick, housing has already imploded and is continuing to do so. A major contributing factor to the bubble was free and easy money to anyone with a pulse.

[cramer]

In case you were out sick, housing has already imploded and is continuing to do so. A major contributing factor to the bubble was free and easy money to anyone with a pulse.

id say the implosion ended for most areas back in 2008. Now its just a slow steady decline in prices. From 2006 to 2008 my house lost over 300K in value. From 2008 to now, my house has lost 9K in value.