Real Estate Crash thread

[Hutch]

That said, lets make a little bet. The Case Shiller Composite 20 Index was at 142.42 in December 2010.
I will paypal you $100 in 2012 if the December 2011 number is higher, you can send me the $100 if it is lower.
Deal?

That's the position you're willing to place a bet on, after daily predicting the fucking zombie apocalypse for the last 6 months? Way to put your money where your mouth is.

How about if I can still turn the lights on at my house in a year and afford to feed my children you send me $100. If not, I'll send you a lump of gold via pony express.

[iceman]

hahaha, I want in on that one.

btw, Case-Shiller says DC area is up 4.1% year over year. Guess where I live.

[liv2ski]

That's the position you're willing to place a bet on, after daily predicting the fucking zombie apocalypse for the last 6 months? Way to put your money where your mouth is.

How about if I can still turn the lights on at my house in a year and afford to feed my children you send me $100. If not, I'll send you a lump of gold via pony express.

Hutch, thanks for the good laugh. I really need to stop posting that shit up here, as I previously have said. The "position" isn't about the money, my investments are. I thought it would be fun to have something to look forward to next Feb. Then Ice can call me a big douche and go buy himself a bottle on me. As I have previously said, I want to be dead wrong on the doom and gloom shit. But I am positioned for it as best as I can figure out.

[4matic]

Hutch, thanks for the good laugh. I really need to stop posting that shit up here, as I previously have said. The "position" isn't about the money, my investments are. I thought it would be fun to have something to look forward to next Feb. Then Ice can call me a big douche and go buy himself a bottle on me. As I have previously said, I want to be dead wrong on the doom and gloom shit. But I am positioned for it as best as I can figure out.

What is that investment position? Cash, gold, Corn?

[iceman]

What is that investment position? Cash, gold, Corn?

He's got a freezer full of brains out in the garage to feed the zombies with so they leave him alone.

[mcsquared]

How about if I can still turn the lights on at my house in a year and afford to feed my children you send me $100. If not, I'll send you a lump of gold via pony express.

Ha! Imbecile. If you think the Pony Express will be operating after the bernanke apocalypse you are dumber than Greenspan. Have you seen the price of leather and feed these days!??!?!? Mail will be delivered by specially modified vehicles which are powered by the salty tears of the middle class.

[liv2ski]

hahaha, I want in on that one.

btw, Case-Shiller says DC area is up 4.1% year over year. Guess where I live.

Done. Remember to look at the composite 20 next February. Glad your area has hung in there while the other 17 tank.

[4matic]

Ha! Imbecile. If you think the Pony Express will be operating after the bernanke apocalypse you are dumber than Greenspan. Have you seen the price of leather and feed these days!??!?!? Mail will be delivered by specially modified vehicles which are powered by the salty tears of the middle class.

What middle class? It's been destroyed. Gone.

[liv2ski]

Ha! Imbecile. If you think the Pony Express will be operating after the bernanke apocalypse you are dumber than Greenspan. Have you seen the price of leather and feed these days!??!?!? Mail will be delivered by specially modified vehicles which are powered by the salty tears of the middle class.

Wow, wiping tears from my ears. You guys really do deliver the laughs sometimes. Off to work.

[iceman]

Done. Remember to look at the composite 20 next February. Glad your area has hung in there while the other 17 tank.

No I want in on the Pony Express-gold bet because it was hilarious. Then I pointed out the DC C-S index because I don't give a fuck what it does nationally. Why would I bet on that? My investments are my bets and I'm all right, Jack.

[XXX-er]

Vancover is percieved as a world class city or whatever , bottom lione is people are paying the cost to live there ,when the bubble is gona burst is anybodies guess but RE just does not go up forever ...except in vancover ?

Given the crazy overinflated prices I would be nervous holding RE in Van on which I owed a lot of $

[4matic]

Dr. Doom Marc Faber 2/25/2011:

Faber On Real Estate:

I think another avenue is to own farmland. I think that real estate prices in the US have come down – OK, they may go down another 10% – but relatively to other countries and internationally, after having declined, if you can find a house you like, it may not be a bad time to buy a house in the US. It may not go up in value, but it may preserve its value.

…

[WICS]

Reuters
February 28, 2011 A.D.

A Federal Reserve official said on Monday the economy can grow for a while before inflation pressures emerge and that policymakers should be wary of withdrawing their support for the economy too soon. "The economic outlook has improved considerably," NY Fed President William Dudley said at NYU's School of Business. "Despite this, we are still very far from achieving our dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability," he added.

Dudley, who has a permanent vote on the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, has a reputation as being one of the strongest supporters of aggressive Fed actions to bolster the economy. While seen as a dove on the spectrum of Fed officials, he is the vice-chairman of the FOMC and his views are influential in shaping the consensus behind policy.

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •



Let's not discuss this.

Happy Monday, ladies




$.02







Yo, L-2-S. I might consider taking $100 of risk off your hands, when Ice eventually accepts your $100 wager on the C-S Index.
Yo, Ice. I'd think about taking $100 of risk off your hands, after you go for $100 C-S Index bet with L-2-S.

[cramer]

Vancover is percieved as a world class city or whatever , bottom lione is people are paying the cost to live there ,when the bubble is gona burst is anybodies guess but RE just does not go up forever ...except in vancover ?

Given the crazy overinflated prices I would be nervous holding RE in Van on which I owed a lot of $

I had to google vancouver being a "world class city". I would have never thought so. Whats the allure of vancouver? Ive been there a couple times when i was younger. It was nice to visit, but theres no way i'd ever set up shop there for good. Why is it so expensive to live there?

[grrrr]

Vancouver > anything in the US. That said, I can't see how anyone can afford to live there.

[Benny Profane]

hahaha, I want in on that one.

btw, Case-Shiller says DC area is up 4.1% year over year. Guess where I live.

That's actually kinda embarrasing, for the country as a whole, wouldn't you think? Even the sleazy banker's NY metro is seeing drops. I shoulda been a lobbyist.

[liv2ski]

Vancover is percieved as a world class city or whatever , bottom lione is people are paying the cost to live there ,when the bubble is gona burst is anybodies guess but RE just does not go up forever ...except in vancover ?

Given the crazy overinflated prices I would be nervous holding RE in Van on which I owed a lot of $

I wish I could have found that cool Vancouver values roller coaster post LeeLau put up once. It was pretty sweet.
Also, for full disclosure (not that it matters) I too have started looking at buying in areas that have a strong ROI, as it is hard to imagine prices knocked down to $25 psf are going to go much lower, unless all the people just disappear in the area.

[Benny Profane]

Berkshire owns Clayton homes and a long list of housing related companies:

Benjamin Moore, Acme Brick, Johns Manville, Several home furnishing, and other building materials companies:

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/subs/sublinks.html

So he's talking up the crappy part of his book. Surprise, surprise.

[LeeLau]

Nothing goes up forever. Not even Vancouver RE.

But like pow11 says, you have to live somewhere.

http://vimeo.com/11211712

[skiballs]

That's actually kinda embarrasing, for the country as a whole, wouldn't you think? Even the sleazy banker's NY metro is seeing drops. I shoulda been a lobbyist.

Being that the governor of MD decided that no new houses can be build with septic tanks and all the existing sewer capacity is maxed out.
There will be no new housing built in MD anytime soon.
NoVA is Maxed out as well.
Base realignment adding 100k to 300k jobs to the region.
DC area = housing shortage.
The middle of the desert and swap land are not prime location.
The 15k property tax on the average NYC suburb is getting, well taxing.

[XXX-er]

I had to google vancouver being a "world class city". I would have never thought so. Whats the allure of vancouver? Ive been there a couple times when i was younger. It was nice to visit, but theres no way i'd ever set up shop there for good. Why is it so expensive to live there?

Van would be THE mildest climate in Canada that is not in the US so people coming there from SE asia like it ,the bedroom community of richmond probably has more asians than non I have been in schools where there were 30 asian kids and 3 white kids , 3 ski hills on the north shore which was also the birthplace of freeride biking ,whistler is only 2 hrs away , right on the occean , vancover sponsored a sucessful olympics which drove 2bil in spending for the big party

lots of reasons but at the root of it all mostly people wana be there ,even after the last big cluster fuck y'all created which would be the great american recession of 2008 ,even tho canada is tied to your economy Vancover buyers were in bidding wars on RE

Me I am from Van and for the last 15yrs I tend to be far from Vancover , I only go there when I have to ,nowdays if I lived down there ... I would need to get a job

[LeeLau]

WB said a housing recovery is at hand. Isn't that relevant? I'm simply trying to counter Liv2ski's Zerohedge-End of the world-gloom and doom and put my money where my mouth is. Since when is Padded room ski related? Did I miss something?

Edit: I've owned BRK.B for over a year now. I only short term trade on opportunity. I also looked at two investment properties and a profitable foreclosure pool this weekend.

I explained badly and your clarification is helpful.

Buffet has a time horizon that's orders of magnitude greater than many others because of the amount of capital he can deploy and that was my point. Your initial post mentioned "I tripled my investment in BRK.B on Wednesday last week prior to earnings fwiw" which I took to be just more dick-swinging. Kind of like casually mentioning that I have many shares in BRK.A at a cocktail party bad-taste which is what I thought you were doing.

Instead of just saying - Buffet thinks the housing market is going to go up so therefore the housing market is going to go up how about a bit more of your own thoughts? You're not a Benny Profane who parrots headlines just to meet his own agenda so why start going there?

My point about the Padded Room is that this is an obscure message board populated by people who presumably like skiing so I don't know who or why you are struggling so hard to impress with the many casual references you've dropped about the awesomeness of your trading strategies - or maybe I've just taken the times you've posted out of context.

[Benny Profane]

E

Being that the governor of MD decided that no new houses can be build with septic tanks and all the existing sewer capacity is maxed out.
There will be no new housing built in MD anytime soon.
NoVA is Maxed out as well.
Base realignment adding 100k to 300k jobs to the region.
DC area = housing shortage.
The middle of the desert and swap land are not prime location.
The 15k property tax on the average NYC suburb is getting, well taxing.

Sweet. My tax dollars hard at work. Trillion fucking dollar defecits, and DC cruises right through. Fucked up.

[4matic]

I explained badly and your clarification is helpful.

Buffet has a time horizon that's orders of magnitude greater than many others because of the amount of capital he can deploy and that was my point. Your initial post mentioned "I tripled my investment in BRK.B on Wednesday last week prior to earnings fwiw" which I took to be just more dick-swinging. Kind of like casually mentioning that I have many shares in BRK.A at a cocktail party bad-taste which is what I thought you were doing.

Instead of just saying - Buffet thinks the housing market is going to go up so therefore the housing market is going to go up how about a bit more of your own thoughts? You're not a Benny Profane who parrots headlines just to meet his own agenda so why start going there?

My point about the Padded Room is that this is an obscure message board populated by people who presumably like skiing so I don't know who or why you are struggling so hard to impress with the many casual references you've dropped about the awesomeness of your trading strategies - or maybe I've just taken the times you've posted out of context.

Thanks man. I absolutely agree with you and the context of some of my posts do come off as self serving and aggrandizing. Partially intended but mostly just to play provocateur. I'm just an individual investor trying to make it to the end. Any additional risk I take beyond the metric for my age keeps me awake at night, but, I have to do it. It's the only way I'm gonna get out with what I need to be secure. I have almost 30 years watching this stuff every day. I really do love it and am lucky to sit with a perfect view. I can't remember the last day I didn't check my charts and news on the major indexes and I monitor the Asian and European openings every single day. I got lazy in 2008 and therefore have had to be really aggressive the last two years.

[Benny Profane]

I explained badly and your clarification is helpful.

Buffet has a time horizon that's orders of magnitude greater than many others because of the amount of capital he can deploy and that was my point. Your initial post mentioned "I tripled my investment in BRK.B on Wednesday last week prior to earnings fwiw" which I took to be just more dick-swinging. Kind of like casually mentioning that I have many shares in BRK.A at a cocktail party bad-taste which is what I thought you were doing.

Instead of just saying - Buffet thinks the housing market is going to go up so therefore the housing market is going to go up how about a bit more of your own thoughts? You're not a Benny Profane who parrots headlines just to meet his own agenda so why start going there?

My point about the Padded Room is that this is an obscure message board populated by people who presumably like skiing so I don't know who or why you are struggling so hard to impress with the many casual references you've dropped about the awesomeness of your trading strategies - or maybe I've just taken the times you've posted out of context.

Here's a dick swing coming your way. In five years, when have I been wrong?

I've actually laid off the headlines a lot lately. Yves Smith is the one to go to for that. Or Patrick.net.