Real Estate Crash thread

[meatdrink9]

There seems to be only one maggot who has been successful doing that.

Actually there are more. I can't buy as many houses as I once could (and the good deals are coming faster) so I've been sending properties I wish I could buy to a few friends. In our little group we may close on 5 properties this month alone. The cheapest was a 2 bed 1 bath brick home for $25,500. I have a partial ownership in that one. It will easily rent for $650 after we put roughly $5-10K into it (all work hired out).

[meatdrink9]

BUT, there's no question this type of cheap pricing isn't going to disappear in the next couple of years and prices may continue to fall a little even in my "killbox" as one friend put it. We're playing cash flow and planning to hold long term. We're hoping to improve an entire downtown area in the coming years and raise all our property values. I think we're coming up on close to 40 properties completed so far. Lots of synergies. We've got 7 people working the remodels full time now. Stoked to help people out with jobs.

Make no mistake I'm still worried about the economy (and starting a food/water supply, etc...), but it's also another reason why we're all buying real things and not shares of paper.

[Benny Profane]

Hey, Meat, is that your design firm? (the first link) Cool stuff.

[skier666]

Just read an article that REIT owned multifamily housing may start to care more about rent increases than occupancy. If I understood correctly, they may make more money keeping occupancy rates at 93% but charging more rent without the worry of being at 100%. My whole philosophy has always been to slash rents if we have units sutting for a month...interesting idea though.

[meatdrink9]

Hey, Meat, is that your design firm? (the first link) Cool stuff.

Yeah. Thanks. My degree/background is in advertising and design. I still do a fair amount of design and illustration work, but most of my income comes from investing these days. My little studio is located right in the middle of the "killbox". Here are some photos of the studio from a few years ago. I need to snap some new pics as we've updated it quite a bit since then:

http://www.facebook.com/album.php?ai...8&l=3a617c4927

[rideit]

We are shopping for investment properties in the town of Jackson, there is a three bedroom in E. Jackson on Cache (desirable neighborhood) that is going for $399K we are putting an offer on.
Same house would likely have been $699 three years ago.

[cramer]

Yeah. Thanks. My degree/background is in advertising and design. I still do a fair amount of design and illustration work, but most of my income comes from investing these days. My little studio is located right in the middle of the "killbox". Here are some photos of the studio from a few years ago. I need to snap some new pics as we've updated it quite a bit since then:

http://www.facebook.com/album.php?ai...8&l=3a617c4927

Love the conference room table. I need to set something like that out back for picnic table instead of wasting money on a patio set next time. That would store easy in the garage in the winter as well. As well as add a bunch of seating compared to what i have now. Once again, TGR delivers.

[BFD]

We are shopping for investment properties in the town of Jackson, there is a three bedroom in E. Jackson on Cache (desirable neighborhood) that is going for $399K we are putting an offer on.
Same house would likely have been $699 three years ago.

The Rootskier thread about building from scratch had me thinking about this. I was looking at condos in Big Sky area. They were formally $300,000 but are now $150,000. Seems to me that is still more than the cost to build new. Are realestate and development costs that high in Montana. Seems to me the price should be right when you are getting the improvements for the value of the property, something like the 25,500 meatdrink9 deal.

[rideit]

That house got snapped up, closest equ1valent is $500K today.

[meatdrink9]

Seems to me the price should be right when you are getting the improvements for the value of the property, something like the 25,500 meatdrink9 deal.

That is one of the ways I assign value to properties. When the sum of the parts is worth far more than the purchase price... I start getting interested.

[4matic]

That is one of the ways I assign value to properties. When the sum of the parts is worth far more than the purchase price... I start getting interested.

Buyers in markets around the U.S. are snapping up homes in all-cash deals, betting that prices are at or near bottom and breathing life into some of the nation's most battered housing markets.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...975117950.html

[Benny Profane]

The WSJ is really pushing houses today with two articles trying to tell me it's the time to buy. Affordable? Try shopping in Westchester and get back to me on that.

Florida is an awesome buy right now, but, where are the Boomers? And, I.m not talking about the dude in the article. He's rich.

[4matic]

The WSJ is really pushing houses today with two articles trying to tell me it's the time to buy. Affordable? Try shopping in Westchester and get back to me on that.

Florida is an awesome buy right now, but, where are the Boomers? And, I.m not talking about the dude in the article. He's rich.

The smart money is buying Benny. Don't be left behind again.

[LeeLau]

If I lived in the US in a place like say Kansas City or Michigan I'd be in there hand over fist. Rent return compared to capex outlay is unreal

[Missing Sock]

The smart money is buying Benny. Don't be left behind again.

And have been doing it for a few months now.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2278...ses-sell-bonds

[Benny Profane]

The smart money is buying Benny. Don't be left behind again.

Just because you're flush with cash, doesn't make you smart. Some smart people bought last year and the year before that in Miami. Dumb.

There's still a ton of people down their underwater and in various stages of default. A ton. And, now that the foreclosure mills have been shut down after the robo signing problem (Florida was ground zero for that), the market has been shut down, because the market last year was foreclosures, and pretty much nothing else. How many people out there actually have the cash to dive into that situation?

I tell ya, though, a few nights in Miami would do me good right now. Fuck this NYC winter.

[Benny Profane]

And have been doing it for a few months now.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2278...ses-sell-bonds

He's been making all of his new money from gold, not houses. And, that's going south on him right now.

[4matic]

He's been making all of his new money from gold, not houses. And, that's going south on him right now.

No one rings a bell at the bottom.

[Tye 1on]

Heard somewhere, NPR? that banks in some superdistressed areas [michigan, etc] are just walking away from their worst foreclosures. Not foreclosing, just taking the loss and washing their hands of it. That's, like, harsh dude.

[Benny Profane]

No one rings a bell at the bottom.

Or the top.

ha! To the Top. Page 100, bitches.

[cramer]

Buyers in markets around the U.S. are snapping up homes in all-cash deals, betting that prices are at or near bottom and breathing life into some of the nation's most battered housing markets.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...975117950.html

Ya, its going to be the investors snatching up the houses on this 2nd wave of foreclosures. Everybody, i mean everybody i know that didnt get sucked into the mess already owns a house now. They all bought from 2008 and on. I bought end of 2008, my house value dipped went back up and is now dipping again. Im still above water, so it seems i timed it right. over 2 years in and value has pretty much stayed in the same 20K area up and down. I really just think it depends on location to whether its bottom yet. But for the most part, i dont think values are going to rise much for awhile. Anybody who wanted to buy a house bought. If people arent buying, values arent going to go up. Give it another year or 2 and all the folks who short sold / walked in 2007/2008 and so on will be back in the market for a house. FHA will give you a loan after 2 years on a short sale and 3 on a foreclosure as long as the rest of your bills are stellar during that time period.

[Benny Profane]

http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc..._20110209.html

[skier666]

^^^^^^^

Article on SF Gate separates it into a little more detail in the Bay Area...

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...BUC81HK33N.DTL

SF Home Value 4th Quarter 2010 (year over year change) = -4.5%
Bay Area Home Value 4th Quarter 2010 (year over year change) = -3.6%

4th Quarter 2010 - Homeowners....

Negative equity in SF = 7.6%
Entire Bay Area = 23%

[cramer]

^^^^^^^

Article on SF Gate separates it into a little more detail in the Bay Area...

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...BUC81HK33N.DTL

SF Home Value 4th Quarter 2010 (year over year change) = -4.5%
Bay Area Home Value 4th Quarter 2010 (year over year change) = -3.6%

4th Quarter 2010 - Homeowners....

Negative equity in SF = 7.6%
Entire Bay Area = 23%

The good news is the bay area is doing better than the national avg and california itself. Well if you want to call that good news, hehe.

[Benny Profane]

This is huge. If you hear that foreclosures are dramatically slowing down, don't interpret that as a market getting healthier. MERS touched 50% of mortgages.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02...-mers-invalid/