Real Estate Crash thread

[liv2ski]

This is from a local real estate agent but good info anyway.




As you can see, 2010 is really establishing itself as a year of recovery. Although we have only closed merely half the volume of 2007 (record breaking year), we are at least close to doubling 2009's total volume. With a reduction in pricing across the board, this is truly the best time in nearly 20 years to buy in the Vail Valley. I hope to see you this winter season.



YTD - September, 30
1992 $ 149,798,400.00

1993 $ 181,351,833.00
1994 $ 236,744,175.00
1995 $ 230,709,006.00
1996 $ 290,072,960.00
1997 $ 417,159,999.00
1998 $ 484,626,560.00
1999 $ 562,432,486.00
2000 $ 743,597,910.00
2001 $ 620,869,816.00
2002 $ 710,723,013.00
2003 $ 600,352,694.00
2004 $ 823,418,148.00
2005 $ 997,868,148.00
2006 $ 1,081,061,640.00
2007 $ 1,403,177,280.00
2008 $ 1,073,717,348.00
2009 $ 406,049,266.00
2010 $ 745,539,238.00
Average $ 611,873,926.78

How the fuck does that claim make any sense????
I don't care what total sale are, show me what comps have been selling for over the last 5 years? Comps are going
D
O
W
N

[Benny Profane]

If anything, that chart tells me that the high end stuff is getting dumped at whatever price, dragging up that simplistic "total volume" number. The Eurotrash is deserting the American ski scene. They have one closer to home, after all. Promote Vail to the new money - The Chinese, Aussies, Brazilians, Russian oil barons. I'm guessing the Mexican oil and drug lords are still flush.

[meatdrink9]

There is a 90-day period during which the lender can file an action for a deficiency judgment in the amount of the difference between the amount owed and the fair market value of the property on the date of the foreclosure. Many larger mortgage lenders are not pursuing these, but they could, and smaller banks typically will if the difference between the property value and the outstanding balance is significant enough to justify paying legal fees.

That's good info. I hadn't heard that before. Still I'd rather be in limbo for 90 days than 6 years.

[liv2ski]

There is a 90-day period during which the lender can file an action for a deficiency judgment in the amount of the difference between the amount owed and the fair market value of the property on the date of the foreclosure. Many larger mortgage lenders are not pursuing these, but they could, and smaller banks typically will if the difference between the property value and the outstanding balance is significant enough to justify paying legal fees.

Hutch, maybe I missed something, but the above is not true if your loan was for a purchase, not a refi. If you refi, the lender can hit you with a deficiency judgment. They can't hit you with a deficiency judgment on a purchase Deed of Trust.

[cramer]

prices are rising out here in oakley, ca and they are building new houses again. They just approved 2 new neighborhoods as well. Seems like i bought at the right time. Tough to get a loan right now. My refi was a streamlined, so it was easy. My buddy is trying to refi with bofa and they are scrutinizing him big time. "where did this 1200 deposit come from", etc. Watching his accounts that closely. Making him give statements all the time. Made him sign his tax returns and refax (he did his taxes online). Crazy weird shit like that. I think his will go through. He bought a fixer upper and fixed it up. Appraised fine and his wife makes bookoo bucks and both have stellar credit. It just shows you how hard it is right now though. Although going through a big bank like bofa right now, i would have probably found a loan officer off lending tree like i did originally and just went through him again. Big banks under the radar big time right now.

[Hutch]

Hutch, maybe I missed something, but the above is not true if your loan was for a purchase, not a refi. If you refi, the lender can hit you with a deficiency judgment. They can't hit you with a deficiency judgment on a purchase Deed of Trust.

In Utah they can.

http://le.utah.gov/~code/TITLE57/htm/57_01_003200.htm

[Benny Profane]

Matt Taibbi checks in about roboforeclosures:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/17390/232611

[meatdrink9]

Great article. Thanks for sharing. Page 5 really summed it up for me. They don't have the paperwork, because having the paperwork would be showing the evidence of the initial fraud. They need a second round of fraud to hide the first round.

[ass-to-mouth]

the excerpt from taibbi's new book is mindroasting.

[XXX-er]

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Featu.../ID=1631878670

cbc TV did a story on the same thing except it was about canadians coming down to buy the dream retirement home ,probably half of canada (which is like only half the pop of california)seen that story

[bostonjohn]

I am not sure if this has been covered in here but here is some good information. If you have a 2nd mortgage that 100% is upside down and you plan on keeping your home for some time. You can STOP paying the second mortgage and negotiate the balance for pennies on the dollar. I have numerous clients that our law firm has done this for. One example just settled last week. Client stopped paying their chase 2nd mortgage about 9 months ago with 165k balance. This loan was 100% underwater. We got chase to agree to release the lien and settle the debt for just under 30k. I have even seen 2nd lien holders come with offers before we even show our case to them. This is something I do not recommend doing unless you have an experienced law firm working for you and completely understand what it takes to accomplish this. PM me with any questions.

[Dantheman]

Matt Taibbi checks in about roboforeclosures:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/17390/232611

"But many of these homeowners are just ordinary Joes who had no idea what they were getting into. Some were pushed into dangerous loans when they qualified for safe ones. Others were told not to worry about future jumps in interest rates because they could just refinance down the road, or discovered that the value of their homes had been overinflated by brokers looking to pad their commissions. And that's not even accounting for the fact that most of this credit wouldn't have been available in the first place without the Ponzi-like bubble scheme cooked up by Wall Street, about which the average home­owner knew nothing — hell, even the average U.S. senator didn't know about it.

At worst, these ordinary homeowners were stupid or uninformed — while the banks that lent them the money are guilty of committing a baldfaced crime on a grand scale."


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[skideeppow]

I am not sure if this has been covered in here but here is some good information. If you have a 2nd mortgage that 100% is upside down and you plan on keeping your home for some time. You can STOP paying the second mortgage and negotiate the balance for pennies on the dollar. I have numerous clients that our law firm has done this for. One example just settled last week. Client stopped paying their chase 2nd mortgage about 9 months ago with 165k balance. This loan was 100% underwater. We got chase to agree to release the lien and settle the debt for just under 30k. I have even seen 2nd lien holders come with offers before we even show our case to them. This is something I do not recommend doing unless you have an experienced law firm working for you and completely understand what it takes to accomplish this. PM me with any questions.

Good talking to you the other day. Lets see if we can referer some business to each other.
Super busy and heading to mexico to surf but will be back on the 22nd.

[Benny Profane]

I am not sure if this has been covered in here but here is some good information. If you have a 2nd mortgage that 100% is upside down and you plan on keeping your home for some time. You can STOP paying the second mortgage and negotiate the balance for pennies on the dollar. I have numerous clients that our law firm has done this for. One example just settled last week. Client stopped paying their chase 2nd mortgage about 9 months ago with 165k balance. This loan was 100% underwater. We got chase to agree to release the lien and settle the debt for just under 30k. I have even seen 2nd lien holders come with offers before we even show our case to them. This is something I do not recommend doing unless you have an experienced law firm working for you and completely understand what it takes to accomplish this. PM me with any questions.

What that tells me is that all of that HELOC crap is being written away by the big banks because they are backed up by you and me, dear taxpayer. As a renter who missed out on the Home As Cash Machine party of the early 21st century, I don't even want to think about it too much, because my present and future tax payments are going to pay for some motherfucker's overpriced flat screen and X5 and ten trips to Vail and the 2.5 kids useless B.A.s and, of course, his mistress.
The numbers are not insignificant. HELOCs are valued in the trillions.

[Platinum Pete]

Holy cow, I looked at Portland home prices for the first time in six months today and nearly soiled myself. So many bargains, including a handful of places that you could cashflow from day 1 as rentals at the asking price (barring something major in the inspection) - and that's just a quicky search of the MLS.
I moved to the Bay Area a couple months ago for a handful of issues (including a bigger paycheck) and I am conjuring how to get back into the Portland property market. First step has to be re-financing my Portland rental property.
I know some people read this price slump as doom and gloom, but when you can buy an asset that puts money in your pocket monthly how bad can the market be?

[WICS]

From a real Irishman: "... wanking, fu****g bankers"

[Benny Profane]

Priceless.

Fuck off!

[liv2ski]

^^^^I laughed

[skiballs]

I always wondered where Robin Williams got some of his material.

[Benny Profane]

If you believe that demographics are a major force behind this (I do), then this will stop you in your tracks:

"The real value of home equity is down sharply. According to recent research by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, mean housing wealth for households of ages 57 to 62 went from $140,133 in 1992 to $200,315 in 2004, and to $121,810 in 2010. Mean mortgage debt rose from $56,088 in 1992 to $121,810 in 2010. Retirees are entering their elder years not only with shrunken portfolios, but also with less housing equity and more mortgage debt than an earlier generation."

http://www.businessweek.com/investor...814_page_2.htm

[XXX-er]

not only that but a lot of Oldsters did NOT move their retirement $ into investments with low risk or a guarrantied return as they got older cuz the returns were bad and besides this was gona go on forever right ?

[Rip'nStick]

Holy cow, I looked at Portland home prices for the first time in six months today and nearly soiled myself. So many bargains, including a handful of places that you could cashflow from day 1 as rentals at the asking price (barring something major in the inspection) - and that's just a quicky search of the MLS.
I moved to the Bay Area a couple months ago for a handful of issues (including a bigger paycheck) and I am conjuring how to get back into the Portland property market. First step has to be re-financing my Portland rental property.
I know some people read this price slump as doom and gloom, but when you can buy an asset that puts money in your pocket monthly how bad can the market be?

yep..... rates just jumped a point though. A recent refi on my "residence" garnered some extra cashflow though I lived in some pretty tight quarters for the summer. Just remember, location, location, location.

[liv2ski]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40704053...ate/?GT1=43001

Over the next year, hundreds of thousands of homeowners will face the question of whether to walk away as their mortgage payments spike.

Sharga said that $300 billion worth of adjustable rate mortgages are expected to reset upward over the next 12 to 15 months, adding on average $1,000 to monthly mortgage payments on homes that already are worth 30 percent to 50 percent less than their original sale price.

Roughly 23.2 percent of all single-family homeowners who have a mortgage are underwater on their property, according to third-quarter data from Zillow. (Zillow estimates that 40 percent of single-family homes are owned, with the rest mortgaged.)

Major banks, including Bank of America and Wells Fargo, are preparing to work with these owners through modification programs that may include principal reduction or temporary interest-only loan payments until markets improve and refinancing is possible, Sharga says.

But clearly, many homeowners may have motivation to walk. They’ll see their mortgage payments spike at a time when their home value is underwater the deepest.

American homeowners lost $1.7 trillion in home value during 2010, a far higher loss of equity than the $1 trillion lost during 2009, according to Zillow data released earlier this month. Zillow also reported on a blog that less than one-fourth of the 129 metro areas it tracks showed home value gains in 2010.

[St. Jerry]

Just refinanced my 30-year fixed for 4%. Process was simple and only took 6 weeks to close.

[liv2ski]

Just refinanced my 30-year fixed for 4%. Process was simple and only took 6 weeks to close.

I work in the mortgage industry and if you have the equity to do so, getting a loan is pretty much the same process it always was prior to about 2002, when they just started giving money away
The only negative that I really see in all the new changes is the appraisal piece. While I appreciate the idea no one should be able to influence the appraisers value judgment, I think the unwillingness of banks/mortgage companies to accept an appraisal that was ordered through X companies AMC, is horse shit as it results in multiple appraisals needing to be ordered and paid for on a tough deal that didn't get approved by the first company. That needs to change.
Also, I continue to look at properties in resort areas of Mammoth and Tahoe and feel the value trend is still down. I just wonder how far the market will tank, as many present values are 50% of their 2005 peak