Real Estate Crash thread

[liv2ski]

But, who's the lender? That's the whole point. Who has the note? Whom should I pay? Suppose you try to sell your home in ten years and the lawyers kinda murmur, "um, ahem, I'm sorry Mr. Liv2ski, but, um, there seems to be a problem. Your title is as dirty as a one year old's diaper. We have no clue who really "owns" your home. Therefore, you don't. Unless, heh heh, ahem, (fixing tie), we all just continue this charade and lie to the judges one more time. How 'bout it?!"

And the bankers just fucking laugh at us for being the stupid fools we always are.

Benny, if there is a title issue with a home I am trying to sell down the road, big deal. That is why you purchase title insurance whenever a new loan is put on the property. If the fuck nut bank doesn't want to accept the payoff because they are dumb enough to admit they don't know who owns the loan, cool I will keep the money. But that will never happen.
Regarding Bankers laughing at us, read my signature.

The macro "we need to blow through this shadow inventory" line is a greedhead argument, and I'm surprised to see liv2ski making it.

Hutch, I am just so over our society using every legal loophole to delay what needs to be handled, whether it is not paying your mortgage payment to perps walking from a murder charge, because of an evidence issue.
I am sick of banks "extending and pretending" these defaulted loans don't exist in their portfolios to side step liquidity requirements and the Fed let's them. I am tired of the guberment bailing out fucking wall street related banks for the questionable transactions that should have put those fuckers out of business.
So ya, not much sympathy in me anymore for anyone but children, animals and hard working people that try and do the right thing and are still getting screwed due to a tanking dollar, a fixed stock market, no real wage growth in the face of increasing prices, a failed guberment that has no interest in representing the peoples needs, etc, etc.
But really, I try not to think of all this shit and just concentrate on snow flying in a few short months

Meatdrink, Nice remodel

[Benny Profane]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/1..._n_769620.html

[liv2ski]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/1..._n_769620.html

Fucking dead on Benny and the average Joe has absolutely no idea. But really, if they did, would blood run down Wall St or would Dancing with the Stars and Monday Night Football satiate the savage beast?

[Benny Profane]

I've always been convinced that fast food has opiates injected in it. That's why I don't eat out of drive up windows.

[skideeppow]

Cabinets look great. Where are they from? Also like the floors.

Nice job as always

yeah where are the cabiinets from? those are sweet

[liv2ski]

I couldn't sleep, so I ended up reading a bunch. Here is a well written piece. Now I get just how fucked the banks are: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gon...s-only-way-out

Because of how the MBS’s were structured, there was an inherent ambiguity as to who actually held the mortgage notes. This is crucial, because only the note-holder has standing in court to foreclose and evict a delinquent homeowner. No tickee, no laundry applies doubly to mortgage loans: No note, no standing.

Anyway, it’s an open secret that the politicians on the Right are all in the banksters’ collective back-pocket. Who do you think tried to make law the Interstate Recognition of Notarizations Act, which would essentially have made it legal for banks to commit perjury in order to foreclosure on a homeowner?

Talk about violating the Rule of Law! By passing that act (via a cowardly voice vote, so as to collectively hide their hand), the Republican senators and congressmen didn’t just try to violate the Rule of Law—they tried to gang-bang it, murder it, and leave it in a heap by the side of the road!

But while the pundits and political riff-raff hee-haw and trumpet like donkeys and elephants, but with none of the sense of those fine animals—lo and behold!—the banks themselves are quietly fixing the problem.

They’re doing it through Mulligan Mortgages.

[meatdrink9]

Cabinets look great. Where are they from? Also like the floors.

Nice job as always

Thanks. Cabinets were a special order through Home Depot. I believe the company is American Classics. The door style is Shaker and the finish is Cognac. Door hardware from Ikea.

Floors were original. We refinished them. They were under numerous layers of linoleum and chipboard.

Backsplash was from Lowes and I had a friend make the concrete counters (turned out awesome).

[skideeppow]

^^ you want to come over to aspen and remodel my kitchen? Cant believe those cabinets are form the depot. Great stuff.

[Benny Profane]

Anyway, it’s an open secret that the politicians on the Right are all in the banksters’ collective back-pocket. Who do you think tried to make law the Interstate Recognition of Notarizations Act, which would essentially have made it legal for banks to commit perjury in order to foreclosure on a homeowner?

Talk about violating the Rule of Law! By passing that act (via a cowardly voice vote, so as to collectively hide their hand), the Republican senators and congressmen didn’t just try to violate the Rule of Law—they tried to gang-bang it, murder it, and leave it in a heap by the side of the road!

Whoa, whoa there brother. Only "the right'? Only "the Republicans??" Very wrong. The bill you speak of was passed in the senate by a unanimous voice vote! That means every fucker, Dem, Repub, whatever, just shrugged, barely looked up from their blackberries, and said, yeah, whatever, yes. And, I'll bet you 100 bucks that Obama would have signed it into law if the shit didn't fly off the fan with this "foreclosuregate" thing before it hit his desk. Amazing, too, because, in essence, they are trying to change centuries old property laws while everyone is shouting about deficits and immigration and abortion or something that doesn't really matter right now. ALL those fuckers are owned by the financial oligarchy, especially Mr. Change I Can't Fucking Believe In sitting in the White House. Have you heard any outrage from the west wing about this massive fraud? Nope. It's just, "well, hrumph, just a little paperwork problem, nothing to see, let's move along with the GREATEST FUCKING RAPE OF THE TAXPAYER IN HISTORY. cough cough, hey, they deserve it anyway, they didn't pay their mortgage, right? Let's get it on! Bonus time coming up. A lot of that, ahem, spills off the table into our campaign buckets......"




Anyway, here's a great article about this whole mess. Bloomberg took over Businessweek and improved it ten times over:


http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...1076208349.htm

[liv2ski]

Whoa, whoa there brother. Only "the right'? Only "the Republicans??" Very wrong. The bill you speak of was passed in the senate by a unanimous voice vote! That means every fucker, Dem, Repub, whatever, just shrugged, barely looked up from their blackberries, and said, yeah, whatever, yes. And, I'll bet you 100 bucks that Obama would have signed it into law if the shit didn't fly off the fan with this "foreclosuregate" thing before it hit his desk. Amazing, too, because, in essence, they are trying to change centuries old property laws while everyone is shouting about deficits and immigration and abortion or something that doesn't really matter right now. ALL those fuckers are owned by the financial oligarchy, especially Mr. Change I Can't Fucking Believe In sitting in the White House. Have you heard any outrage from the west wing about this massive fraud? Nope. It's just, "well, hrumph, just a little paperwork problem, nothing to see, let's move along with the GREATEST FUCKING RAPE OF THE TAXPAYER IN HISTORY. cough cough, hey, they deserve it anyway, they didn't pay their mortgage, right? Let's get it on! Bonus time coming up. A lot of that, ahem, spills off the table into our campaign buckets......"

Anyway, here's a great article about this whole mess. Bloomberg took over Businessweek and improved it ten times over:

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...1076208349.htm

Benny, I am totally with what you are saying above. I was quoting the linked article, not writing the stuff. Sorry I forgot the quotation marks at 4am

Edit: I read the above article and really, it is what I said to Hutch earlier. People don't make their mortgage payment, but because in the conversion from paper to electronic (paperless) documents, there is now a loop hole for the dead beats to use to stay in their homes.
The fact of the matter is they haven't paid on a secured lien, that means the servicer can foreclose in my world. But ya, let's support this kind of BS, it is the right think to do

[Benny Profane]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/23/bu...l?ref=business

"That’s why most people, myself included, have no sympathy for Bank of America’s legal predicament — and no patience for its “we’re not the bad guys here” arguments. It is absolutely true that the homeowners that Bank of America wants to foreclose on are in default on loans they should never have gotten in the first place. (Gee, whose fault was that?) But it simply does not follow that the bank therefore has an absolute right to take back the home. Under the law, it has to prove it has that right — by filing documents that show that the owner of the mortgage has conveyed that right to it. That’s why this affidavit scandal isn’t some legal nicety. It’s about the single most important value of American jurisprudence: due process."

[Benny Profane]

Chris Whalen is the new Roubini.

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010...-a-cancer.html

[retirwntm]

chris whalen should never be compared to roubini. please, just don't.

[Art Shirk]

Liv, this isn't some minor loophole. Lawyers muddle words, parse phrases, argue nuances, etc all the time. But the issue here revolves around the single most important element of civil law: Standing. Forget duty, breach, causation, damages. You want my home? You better own it. These guys threw book-keeping out the door along time ago with MERS and were making so much money, they didn't really care if that little insignificant document which states who owns the home was properly forwarded to the "true owner." These guys made their bed. I have little empathy for someone who doesn't pay their mortgage. But your Deed of Trust doesn't require a borrower pay his mortgage, but it does require the note holder to prove standing before foreclosing. Its all pretty black and white.

[Spats]

Liv, this isn't some minor loophole. Lawyers muddle words, parse phrases, argue nuances, etc all the time. But the issue here revolves around the single most important element of civil law: Standing.

Exactly.

Perhaps there is an object lesson for banks and corporations here, of the same sort that they dole out to us millions of times every day:

"Those are the rules. It doesn't matter if they're 'fair' or who's 'right'; you understood them, you agreed to them willingly, and now you must abide by them."

[powder11]

That’s why this affidavit scandal isn’t some legal nicety. It’s about the single most important value of American jurisprudence: due process."

which is why banks are going to take the next step in that process:

"So says you. In the meantime, unless you can prove otherwise, we are just going to carry on with business as usual."

[Benny Profane]

chris whalen should never be compared to roubini. please, just don't.

Why not?

[retirwntm]

because they are very different animals. whalen is certainly out on BB and CNBC and other places trying to establish himself for his firm, but he has years of experience especially with risk management and in the banking sector. he knows intimately what is both right and wrong with the banks and he has credibility. roubini was a professor who saw the leverage in the system and started crying that the sky was falling to whomever would listen. he happened to be right about it and now he is using that platform to confer himself to international man of mystery status. for every one thing he says that is true, he says ten that are ridiculous. he's a redneck cashing in on a lottery ticket.

[retirwntm]

for instance, go back and look at 10 clips of roubini's "prognostications" about certain things. if you hold him to any sort of time frame other than *ever* his accuracy is pretty low. he is shooting buck shot at the target, not bullets.

[liv2ski]

Liv, this isn't some minor loophole. Lawyers muddle words, parse phrases, argue nuances, etc all the time. But the issue here revolves around the single most important element of civil law: Standing. Forget duty, breach, causation, damages. You want my home? You better own it. These guys threw book-keeping out the door along time ago with MERS and were making so much money, they didn't really care if that little insignificant document which states who owns the home was properly forwarded to the "true owner." These guys made their bed. I have little empathy for someone who doesn't pay their mortgage. But your Deed of Trust doesn't require a borrower pay his mortgage, but it does require the note holder to prove standing before foreclosing. Its all pretty black and white.

Guys, when it is as clear as day that the borrower entered into a secured loan with the property as collateral, as far as I am concerned, the servicing lender has the right to foreclose for non payment. You have your take and I have mine. Just like if a murderer killed someone and then got off on a technicality, I would say fuck the technicalities. You guys want to defend the fine points or gray areas IMO. I am more black and white. Doesn't mean I am right, actually, per the law I am wrong. I just disagree with a lot of the law/technicalities. If I was dictator for life, laws would be more black and white, but you guys already know that about me

[Benny Profane]

for instance, go back and look at 10 clips of roubini's "prognostications" about certain things. if you hold him to any sort of time frame other than *ever* his accuracy is pretty low. he is shooting buck shot at the target, not bullets.

Find me some things he has said that are wrong besides market predictions, which he really shouldn't be doing, anyway. From what I've heard and seen, he's pretty much been spot on for the past five years. And, I use this hate of him by professionals in the business as proof that he still has credibility, something that 98% of others from that cesspool who spew their lies in the media have none of.

[Foggy_Goggles]

side note: HD and American Classics are not neccessarily cheap for cabinets (not overpriced either). That door and draw style is pretty standard. Check out Merrilat or Aristocraft for good value cabinets.

[retirwntm]

Find me some things he has said that are wrong besides market predictions, which he really shouldn't be doing, anyway. From what I've heard and seen, he's pretty much been spot on for the past five years. And, I use this hate of him by professionals in the business as proof that he still has credibility, something that 98% of others from that cesspool who spew their lies in the media have none of.

it is precisely the fact that he is spending almost all his time making market predictions that bothers me. there was (and could still be) a time and place for him, but restating over and over that there was a problem is so mid 2000's. everyone knows there was too much leverage now. some knew then but weren't in the position he was to expose it without peril to any of his potential clients. that was his strong hand. since then, he is simply stating the obvious, and often getting it wrong.

use your google skills, benny. he was calling for a double dip as a certainty. now he's calling for a long slog at subpar growth (new normal camp) and has demured from his former position that the world would end imminently. he wanted all the US (and all problem) banks nationalized. they almost all survived despite what will be a multi year mortgage standoff between homeowners in default, RMBS holders who will sue the banks and servicers, the servicers and the banks. could you imagine the absolute international shitshow that would have ensued if all the banks were nationalized?

some of his insights are quite good and this has given him a platform, but some of the ideas he floats are so absolutely horrible and krugmanesque that were they instituted would wreak absolutely unknowable havoc. this is why professors do not run businesses, they have no idea how implementation of an idea works A-Z in a process.

as to others talking their book, yes, initially, he was refreshing because he was not an "insider". now he has his own firm, RGE, and as such, can be claimed to be just as guilty of trying to create business a priori rather than being some honest whistle blower.

[Benny Profane]

it is precisely the fact that he is spending almost all his time making market predictions that bothers me. there was (and could still be) a time and place for him, but restating over and over that there was a problem is so mid 2000's. everyone knows there was too much leverage now. some knew then but weren't in the position he was to expose it without peril to any of his potential clients. that was his strong hand. since then, he is simply stating the obvious, and often getting it wrong.

use your google skills, benny. he was calling for a double dip as a certainty. now he's calling for a long slog at subpar growth (new normal camp) and has demured from his former position that the world would end imminently. he wanted all the US (and all problem) banks nationalized. they almost all survived despite what will be a multi year mortgage standoff between homeowners in default, RMBS holders who will sue the banks and servicers, the servicers and the banks. could you imagine the absolute international shitshow that would have ensued if all the banks were nationalized?

some of his insights are quite good and this has given him a platform, but some of the ideas he floats are so absolutely horrible and krugmanesque that were they instituted would wreak absolutely unknowable havoc. this is why professors do not run businesses, they have no idea how implementation of an idea works A-Z in a process.

as to others talking their book, yes, initially, he was refreshing because he was not an "insider". now he has his own firm, RGE, and as such, can be claimed to be just as guilty of trying to create business a priori rather than being some honest whistle blower.

First, you're just wrong about him making market predictions all the time. You know that's not right. He's just playing to the crowd at CNBC because, well, they asked him, and, I'll bet it's kinda fun playing that celeb thing. Let's face it, he's not a handsome man and he seems to have the personality of a DMV pitt boss, so, he probably got a few rock star blowjobs for the first time in his life after he hit the big time, and went with it. Wouldn't you? He's toned that down lately, along with losing more hair.
Here, tell me when he's pumping markets in this little speech. It's the most recent I've heard him talk:



And, I don't see it much on his site.

But, I see the problem here. I'm arguing with someone who believes the TBTF bank "bailout" was a smart and proper move, and, if it didn't happen in the manner it did, the world would be in "chaos" now. Or, at least, for the period from, oh, late '08 to late '09. And, the economy and our financial system is healing slowly and we'll all be back in the garden fairly soon. I can only assume that you are young and work in the business. If you are both, you have benefitted greatly from the greatest rape of taxpayer money in history, but, you are of the few, especially in your generation. So, it's a forest from the trees problem, and you are deep in there, not conscious of the pitchforks and torches on the periphery. At this point, you'll either get rich (relatively speaking), or be out of a job in a few years, I can't predict that one, yet. It all depends on politics, it seems. Check out what Whalen said in that clip. The political machine will take two or three election cycles to clear out the shit. That's a long time. Meanwhile, the high priced whores in office right now will bend to any bankers will, no problem.

You also think he was wrong predicting a double dip, which is kind of amazing, since we're most likely sliding into one as I type. As real estate goes, so goes our economy, and real estate is really really fucked. It was the bedrock of credit for the middle class, and, that game is just gone and not coming back for years. No HELOCS fueling consumption, 10% UE, Boomers starting to die off with no savings, and now Title Fright. Hoo boy. Bring on cheap western ski condos!


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...307890662.html

" "September and October are usually the height of the selling-season for us," says Rich Armstrong, who owns the brokerage Rare Properties in Jackson Hole, Wyo. "Now we are seeing a number of what we call 'fence sitters,' people who would have leapt in even a month ago, but now are waiting on the sidelines.""

[grrrr]

There's a house I noticed a few weeks ago in a nice neighborhood down the road a piece. At the time, it had just been cut from $229,000 to $195,000. Two weeks ago, they cut it to $185,000. Last week it went to $180,000. Today, they dropped it to $175,000.

Me likey this trend.