Real Estate Crash thread

[coreshot-tourettes]

"but they should have said, 'Hey, feel sorry for me because I just went into deep debt for 30 years.'"

Not to mention that you can't really own a house anyway. You can't own something that if you stop paying property taxes to the government, they take it away.

[meatdrink9]

Just to play counter to the woes of home ownership. In general I see the gloom and doom daily, but not a bad time to snap up property.

Here's one photo from our new house (currently in the remodel phase). Just finished up the floors on the top level this past weekend. This is a bedroom. Just one of 4 fireplaces. The house cost 160K and is 4800 sq ft. Interest rate at 4.25. Monthly cost of Taxes, Insurance and Interest to live in this house... roughly $500



I'll post more pics in the coming weeks.

We have spent about 30K remodeling 3,200 sq ft. and we did put 20% down.

[liv2ski]

We have spent about 30K remodeling 3,200 sq ft. and we did put 20% down.

MD, get the fuck out of here. $30k to remodel 3,200 sq ft? Bathrooms are at least $15k a piece, a kitchen, shit an easy $50k if you have my appetite. What did you do, replace some windows, paint and refinish the floors
Really, I want more pictures and info, as I am always blownin away by your projects.

[whatcomridaz]

MD, get the fuck out of here. $30k to remodel 3,200 sq ft? Bathrooms are at least $15k a piece, a kitchen, shit an easy $50k if you have my appetite. What did you do, replace some windows, paint and refinish the floors
Really, I want more pictures and info, as I am always blownin away by your projects.

Sounds like your appetite is kind of large. However, 30k doesn't go far in a remodel, not sure if you'd be willing to share before/after/this is what we spent but I'd love to know

[grrrr]

Here's one photo from our new house (currently in the remodel phase). Just finished up the floors on the top level this past weekend. This is a bedroom. Just one of 4 fireplaces. The house cost 160K and is 4800 sq ft. Interest rate at 4.25. Monthly cost of Taxes, Insurance and Interest to live in this house... roughly $500

Here's what's available for $160K here:



224 square feet, no running water and there's no way to get a septic permit because it's swamp land...but it is waterfront!

[montanaskier]

Eagle County real estate continues to exceed 2009



Real estate numbers for July were $88 million in dollar volume with 92 transactions, both exceeding the July numbers for 2009.



Vail Village was the main contributor to the dollar volume with more than 30% of the overall total with $27 million over 7 transactions. Four of these transactions were properties that sold for over $5 million, including 3 Solaris units. Solaris now has sold a total of 12 units at an average sales price of $7.6 million.



Beyond the scope of these high end properties, almost 75% of all transactions have sold for less than $1 million in July and nearly 70% year to date. However, 75% of the total dollar volume is accumulated through properties selling for more than $1 million.



Multifamily homes have been the most prevalent selling residential property type thus far in 2010, with 57% of all transactions. These transactions have an average sales price of nearly $1.2 million, an increase of 29% over 2009. They also host a price per square foot of $568 compared to $343 for a single family home.



July Highlights:



The highest sale in Eagle County was in the Solaris, selling for $7.5 million
Eagle had the most transactions with 11
Lionshead had the highest PPSF; a single family residence selling for $1,301 per foot

[Benny Profane]

Has anybody been following this?: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/21/bu...1&ref=business
You would if you lived in Florida or Vegas or Phoenix. NPR kinda broke the story, and this was today's follow up:http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=130065609

"ARNOLD: And Cox said the sheer volume of foreclosures appeared to make doing a thorough job impossible. Stefan testified he's signing between eight and 10,000 documents a month.

Mr. COX: That works out to be about one a minute. Some of those loan files contain a hundred or more documents.

ARNOLD: Housing advocates call employees like this robo-signers. They say they barely have a chance to glance at all the documents that they're asked to sign.

Mr. COX: Jeffrey Stefan testified that his only duty is to sign papers."


This, to me, is the true danger, beside the obvious physical plant issues, of buying a foreclosed house. Ten years from now, when the dust sorta settles, and you want to sell the house, you may discover that you don't legally hold title to it. Best argument to buy a brand new house.

[liv2ski]

Here is what 113k will get you in a good neighborhood 25 mins from snowbasin, 5 minutes from a University and fully remodeled ready to move in.[/IMG]

Daaaaammmnnn That is a nice looking place from the photos and way under $100 a sq ft. Jeebuz, GLWTS.

[4matic]

Saw an opinion on CNBC today: Allow purchases of homes to aliens in exchange for a green card. Must live in the home for 5 years and not rent it out..

[Benny Profane]

Funny you should bring that up. I've heard it too. If you remember, the initial shock of this crash was blamed on aliens and other people of color buying more than they could afford.

Tommy Lee Jones should have an opinion here.

[neck beard]

Saw an opinion on CNBC today: Allow purchases of homes to aliens in exchange for a green card. Must live in the home for 5 years and not rent it out..

Redefining the scope market participants on the demand side only is kind of like propping up a market via artificial means. One day that legislation will need to be changed and foreign investors barred once again. The RE lobby will scream out against it and you will be stuck with an artificial problem that will no doubt have unwanted side effect (social).

Don't do it.

Having said that, the Australian market which has boomed endlessly for a long time is looking toppish with little yield of value and if you read their property forums, they are all clambering for ways to buy yup big in the US. The relative value is out of this world! Open up to Singapore, Indians, Chinese, Malaysians etc and bam! Some areas would turn around instantly.

Foreigners can buy with ease in Japan and some ski resort areas are really benefiting - capital appreciation and thriving construction where the rest of the country is dead and depreciating.

You wouldn't even need to offer the green card (I'd buy for that!)

[liv2ski]

Redefining the scope market participants on the demand side only is kind of like propping up a market via artificial means. One day that legislation will need to be changed and foreign investors barred once again. The RE lobby will scream out against it and you will be stuck with an artificial problem that will no doubt have unwanted side effect (social).

Don't do it.

Having said that, the Australian market which has boomed endlessly for a long time is looking toppish with little yield of value and if you read their property forums, they are all clambering for ways to buy yup big in the US. The relative value is out of this world! Open up to Singapore, Indians, Chinese, Malaysians etc and bam! Some areas would turn around instantly.

Foreigners can buy with ease in Japan and some ski resort areas are really benefiting - capital appreciation and thriving construction where the rest of the country is dead and depreciating.

You wouldn't even need to offer the green card (I'd buy for that!)

Hohes, the issue is financing. Any foreigner can buy property in the US for cash. But they want to finance some of the purchase. That is a no go these days as all the US Portfolio lenders that would do a Foreign Natl loan failed in the last 2-3 years due to the all the shit SIVA, SISA and NINA loans they made to US citizens

[cramer]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The national housing market is shrouded in uncertainty. But in California, there are glimmers of stability.
Home prices are rising in virtually every corner of the state. They’ve climbed for nine consecutive months, and in July posted a 10.4% gain year-over-year. That puts the state’s median price at $315,000 — nearly twice the national median of $183,000.
And the news is even better in coastal cities.
San Francisco posted the biggest gain of any U.S. metro over the past year, rising 14.3%. The median price there is now more than $607,000. Meanwhile, San Diego has climbed 11.2% (median price: $389,000) and Los Angeles jumped 9.2% (median price: $345,000).
Meanwhile, Florida, Arizona and Nevada — California’s erstwhile bubble-state partners — continue to struggle. So where is the Golden State’s strength coming from?
“I think it comes from the fact that prices went down so far and so quick,” said Lesley Appleton-Young, California Association of Realtors’ chief economist. “That left a lot of people here saying, ‘Wow, affordable California housing.’”
However, a quick home price rebound was delayed by the crush of foreclosures that accompanied the subprime mortgage meltdown. California real estate had become so expensive that a basic single-family home required many buyers to overextend themselves with exotic loans.
CALCULATOR: What’s the home price forecast in your city?
That is no longer the case. Most of the subprime-related distressed properties have been flushed from the system. And when a foreclosure does hit the market, it’s snapped up. The median days it took to sell a home in July was just 44 — lightening fast.
“It’s the dearth of supply for distressed properties that has put pressure on home prices,” said Appleton-Young. “More than half the homes on the market last year drew multiple offers.”
Plus, the California economy is picking up. Even in a recession, it has remained one of the world’s 10 largest economies, mainly because it is driven by every major industry — aerospace, tech, software, finance, agriculture, tourism. So as more of those industries recover and employment picks up, demand for housing will jump.
“California is a much larger, stronger and more diversified economy than the other [bubble] states,” according to Stuart Gabriel, director of the Ziman Center for Real Estate at UCLA.
Another factor that has helped lift prices is a trend toward more short sales. Fewer of the distressed properties are going all the way through the foreclosure process. “The shift to short sales in itself would increase home prices,” said Mark Goldman, who teaches real estate at San Diego State University.
That’s because short sellers usually occupy and take care of the homes until they’re sold, leaving the properties in better condition and worth more than similar foreclosed homes.
Goldman added that California markets are, generally, more constrained than any of the other bubble states. Florida and Nevada, for example, still have room to develop and grow in most areas. But the lack of developable land is especially acute in California, pushing home prices up.
Condos for less than the price of a Corolla
Finally, the California state government has not sat idle. “California provided markets with more significant price support,” he said, “That played a role in elevating prices.”
The state support came in the form of tax credits of up to $10,000 for first-time homebuyers and buyers of new homes. Some purchasers were able to combine the state credit with one from the federal government to reduce their costs by $18,000.
For home sellers in other states, what’s happening in California is encouraging. Trends often begin on the coast, so they’re hoping the recovery will roll eastward

[liv2ski]

^^^^^ Well I like how that article is pumping de prices are coming back, as Zillo.com told me my homes depreciated 3.5% on average last month. I believe the Zillo numbers

Edit: I mean that article was such a bunch of crap, I really couldn't force myself to read it. I should have posted up the piece I read the other day about "shadow inventory" having CA at a 9 year supply of homes based on recent monthly sales, but I told myself I was over posting that crap.

[Benny Profane]

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/

[liv2ski]

I guess Benny read it too^^^^

"I’ve never made the giant attempt of gathering MLS data for every one of the 58 counties in California. Let us not even discuss gathering foreclosure data for each of the counties on an individualized basis. Yet this is necessary if we want an accurate count of shadow inventory. Over the weekend I went ahead and gathered MLS data and foreclosure data for each county to put together the full inventory for the entire state. What did I find? The data is startling because it shows that California, should it keep the current pace of things in the real estate market, won’t empty out the entire inventory for nearly 9 years! Let us first take a snapshot of total MLS data and also MLS + foreclosure data". http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/c...-foreclosures/
Edit: BTW, a healthy housing market is 6 months inventory of homes or less, in case you were not in class that day

[Benny Profane]

Another prediction that California metro area price peaks won’t return until 2025

By Kelli Galippo • Oct 4th, 2010 • Category: real estate

Home prices in most of California won’t return to the peak levels seen in 2006 until 2025 or later, according to a study by Fiserv. The data reflects an unprecedented real estate market cycle period of over 15 years.

Fiserv made more specific predictions for certain major cities. They posit the return of peak prices won’t occur until:

2022 in Santa Ana;
2024 in Oakland;
2024 in San Diego;
2026 in Los Angeles;
2028 in Fresno;
2032 in Riverside; and
2039 or later in Sacramento.
Predictions were calculated using the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (owned by Fiserv), which collects data on single family homes with at least two arms-length sales. Sales pairs for each home are compared, and any price change contributes to establish an equilibrium price trend.

In order to accurately measure changes in the value of a residential real estate market rather than changes in the value of an individual home, each sales pair is assigned a weight based on the price change and the home’s location.

Other factors considered in the data analysis include price anomalies, turnover frequency, time interval between sales and initial home value. Price peak recovery predictions were created using historical trend data and supplemented with data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

Editor’s note — All of these predictions were compiled in March 2010 before the new homebuyer tax credits temporarily boosted home sales by pre-selling homes to otherwise future buyers.

first tuesday take: Fiserv’s prediction that prices will return to the peak prices around 2025 is on par with first tuesday’s forecast. However, our separate processes of arriving at this projection were not nearly the same. [For more information regarding peak price predictions, see the September 2010 first tuesday article, Home sales volume and price peaks.]

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index sets the base years for collecting sales pairs at 1990 and 2000. Because 1990 was a peak price year, logically they should have chosen another peak price year for the 2nd base period. Using 2001 instead of 2000 to calculate price changes would have yielded a somewhat more accurate basis for their projections.

The report does not identify the cut-off date for data collection. Fiserv’s prediction may be evolving as more data is collected for 2010, so we will be keeping a close eye on any new forecasts they may release in the coming months.

In these projections, Fiserv has mastered the “art of the chartist” by basing future price movement on price trends of decades past, commencing in 1990 and 2000 (their base years), to then projecting the trajectory, set by the sale and resale of properties, into the future to predict when year-price increases will return to the peaks from early 2006. However, the purpose of looking back to history is to understand what drove past events, and then use that insight to make better-informed decisions to develop a forecast as an opinion about future prices — not to predict them by a mere projection.

History has shown us that home prices during the next couple of decades will rise close to the rate of consumer inflation (2% to 3%). We can safely infer that prices will continue to follow this inflationary pattern based on the decades following our Great Depression and its concurrent financial crisis of the 1930s, as well as the bond market’s analysis of inflation and dollar performance expectation in 30-year bonds.

Home pricing in the coming years will also be influenced by the retiring of the Baby Boomer generation (peaking in 2025) and the entry of the “Y” Generation into homeownership as first time buyers (peaking in 2018). These future events are used to support our forecast that California home prices will stabilize around 2014, with a “Y” Generation buying bump in prices around 2018, but won’t reach their 2006 peak again until around 2025. [For more information regarding demographics and California real estate trends, see the upcoming first tuesday article, The demographics forging California’s real estate market: a study of forthcoming trends and opportunities — Part I.]

[Benny Profane]

This has pretty much officially become a hot political football. But, what's most disturbing, is the action the senate just took on a unanimous voice vote in favor of this bill. WTF? I know the senate is way beyond corrupt, but, fucking unanimous?? At least try to fake it, motherfuckers.





October 7, 2010
Obama Will Veto Bill That Could Speed Foreclosures
By JACKIE CALMES and DAVID STREITFELD
WASHINGTON — As slipshod bookkeeping by some big mortgage lenders continued to rattle the housing market on Thursday, another major lender indicated it would suspend sales of foreclosed homes and White House officials said President Obama would not sign a bill that critics suggested could facilitate foreclosure fraud.

Demands for investigations and nationwide moratoriums also grew. Representative Edolphus Towns, the New York Democrat who is chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, called on lenders to voluntarily suspend foreclosures until they completed internal investigations. On Wednesday, Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. said that the Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force, which Mr. Obama created to examine financial fraud, is looking at the growing reports of foreclosure fraud.

The president’s pocket veto — rejecting a bill by withholding his signature while Congress is away — effectively kills the measure since lawmakers, who are out of town until after the Nov. 2 midterm elections, are not in position to override his decision with a two-thirds vote of the House and Senate.

The bill would have mandated that notarizations of mortgages and other financial documents done in one state, including those done electronically, be recognized in other states. By the time the bill arrived at Mr. Obama’s desk, however, it was caught in the controversy over major institutions’ acknowledgment of problems in processing documents for tens of thousands of foreclosures. Those included suspected forgeries and notaries’ failure to review the paperwork as required.

Critics, particularly consumer groups, said the measure for interstate notarizations would have made it even easier for banks and other lenders to rush the foreclosure process. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and GMAC Mortgage have stopped foreclosures in nearly half the states, pending investigations into the process.

A fourth major lender, PNC Financial Services Group, has also suspended sales of foreclosed homes for 30 days, according to a memo from a title insurer, Commerce Title, that works closely with the bank.

PNC is alerting title insurance companies that it is postponing the closings effective immediately, according to the memo. “We have been given notice from PNC Legal that there is a moratorium going into effect” on residential foreclosures, the memo from Commerce Title said.

A PNC spokesman, Frederick Solomon, declined to comment beyond saying that the lender was reviewing its mortgage servicing procedures.

PNC, which is based in Pittsburgh, became one of the country’s largest lenders with the acquisition of Ohio-based National City Corporation two years ago. National City, an aggressive lender during the housing boom, collapsed during the financial crisis.

Given the outcry over the far-reaching foreclosure crisis, Congressional aides said lawmakers were unlikely to take umbrage at Mr. Obama’s decision to let the notary measure expire. The White House, in announcing the pocket veto, indicated that it could work with Congress later on some alternative.

Mr. Obama’s communications director, Dan Pfeiffer, said Thursday in a statement, “We need to think through the intended and unintended consequences of this bill on consumer protections, especially in light of the recent developments with mortgage processors.”

“The authors of this bill no doubt had the best intentions in mind when trying to remove impediments to interstate commerce,” Mr. Pfeiffer added. “We will work with them and other leaders in Congress to explore the best ways to achieve this goal.”

The measure had sponsors from both parties and was so uncontroversial in Congress that it passed without roll-call votes — in the House by a voice vote in April and in the Senate by unanimous consent last week.

The president’s decision against signing the measure was his first veto intended to kill a bill; he has pocket-vetoed a measure once before, but only because it was duplicative of other legislation. President George W. Bush, who also came to office with his party in control of Congress, did not veto a bill in his first term.

Mr. Towns, the New York congressman, also asked the New York State attorney general, Andrew M. Cuomo, to investigate accusations of fraud by the lenders. At least a half-dozen other attorneys general have already begun investigations.

[liv2ski]

This has pretty much officially become a hot political football. But, what's most disturbing, is the action the senate just took on a unanimous voice vote in favor of this bill. WTF? I know the senate is way beyond corrupt, but, fucking unanimous?? At least try to fake it, motherfuckers.

October 7, 2010
Obama Will Veto Bill That Could Speed Foreclosures
By JACKIE CALMES and DAVID STREITFELD
WASHINGTON — As slipshod bookkeeping by some big mortgage lenders continued to rattle the housing market on Thursday, another major lender indicated it would suspend sales of foreclosed homes and White House officials said President Obama would not sign a bill that critics suggested could facilitate foreclosure fraud.

What a bunch of BS. Facilitate foreclosure fraud??? This is likely some Black Op by the FED to keep the Shadow Inventory off the MLS.
Bottom line, "are they 90 days delinquent??? They are? Foreclose on the damn property". All this latest BS about documents not being reviewed is just one more distraction to keep properties from being listed and upsetting property values.

[Benny Profane]

Think of the housing market as a little old lady walking down the hallway in much pain, using a walker, with a large male attendant on either side essentially carrying her along with much assistance (that's a metaphor for you and me, the taxpayer), and this event (the foreclosure fraud) is represented by the head nurse walking straight up into her face and saying "I'm sorry, Mrs. Profane, but you'll just have to stop right there until we, um, ahem, cough cough, fix a few things with the, er, uh, tiles down the hallway. Don't worry, we'll be right back. Please be patient. It won't be long"



http://www.cnbc.com/id/39577049



Bank of America's Big Freeze Chills Housing Recovery
Published: Friday, 8 Oct 2010
By: Diana Olick
CNBC Real Estate Reporter

It was bound to happen, and it did.

Bank of America extended its foreclosure freeze to all 50 states as it continues internal "assessments" of its foreclosure practices. "Our ongoing assessment shows the basis for our past foreclosure decisions is accurate," reads their statement.


AP
Bank of America extended its foreclosure freeze to all 50 states as it continues internal "assessments" of its foreclosure practices

Bank of America is one of the highest volume loan liquidators. This means we're going to see a huge slowdown in sales of bank owned properties in the coming months, which have been running at roughly one third of all home sales. It also says something about what happens next.

"It’s really only a matter of time before there is effectively a national foreclosure moratorium," notes Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance. "We already have moved way beyond having foreclosure concerns in just certain circumstances in certain states. There are concerns/challenges being raised about all foreclosures."

I put in the call to JP Morgan Chase [JPM 39.31 -0.21 (-0.53%) ] to see if they will follow. "No comment at this point," answered spokesman Thomas Kelly.

While some see today's announcement as something of an admission:

"The national moratorium is what would be expected if they are truly concerned about the legality of their internal policy, procedures and processes. This is because in non-judicial states it is even easier to commit fraud, or act irresponsibly with respect to the quality of legal documents, than in the 23 judicial states in question because there is no judge involved," says mortgage consultant Mark Hanson.


"This scandal has the potential to make the Subprime crisis look like a minor market correction and at the end of the day, the nation's largest banks will feel the most pain."

Mark Hanson
Mortgage Consultant
Others say it's just common sense:

"I see it as a recognition that it would be absurd to suggest any systematic problems they may identify would be isolated to 23 states," says Graham-Fisher's Josh Rosner.

Whatever it is, it surely opens the door to more litigation and more trouble for all the big banks.

It will also mean a huge wrench in the system of clearing out foreclosed properties and selling them out in the market.

The only way for housing to recover is for that to happen. Title companies, while largely tight-lipped, are raising big red flags.

Fannie Mae, which owns a huge number of the loans Bank of America services, is obviously faced with a new conundrum now that the freeze has gone national. They have been giving REO (bank owned) property buyers the option to get out of deals where the foreclosure might be in question or to stay in while the servicer guaranteed all was fine. "All transactions on potentially affected properties are currently on hold until the servicer can verify the issue has been rectified," spokesperson Amy Bonitatibus tells me. Fannie Mae has a special program called Home Path which offers REO buyers incentives, as the mortgage giant tries to unload its vast supply of foreclosed properties.

But selling houses is just one piece of the picture.

The domino effect cannot be underestimated.

"It will have an immediate negative impact on house sales volume, house prices, private label MBS investors, bank earnings, mortgage servicing values, and much more. It opens up all the servicers to a rush of litigation at an extent never experienced before from homeowners and investors alike. This scandal has the potential to make the Subprime crisis look like a minor market correction and at the end of the day, the nation's largest banks will feel the most pain," adds Hanson.

[Stu Gotz]

I think this will go beyond the foreclosure process and shine a light where the banks don't want it - that the securitization process allowed rampant fraud to take place and the banks are going to be on the hook for selling shizzle and lying about it. You can't claim that your conter-parties should have known better when you knowingly lied to them.


http://rortybomb.wordpress.com/2010/...nd-the-stakes/

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jan...apital-markets

[Benny Profane]

I think this will go beyond the foreclosure process and shine a light where the banks don't want it

In the end, it all had to come down to something like this. There's more to come, I hope. The second part of extend and pretend is getting thin. But, I'm skeptical that it will distract America from Idol and Lohan. The banks own us, it's obvious, especially the senate. The midterms will not change that at all.

Bread and Circuses, Bread and Circuses.

[cramer]

Another prediction that California metro area price peaks won’t return until 2025

By Kelli Galippo • Oct 4th, 2010 • Category: real estate

Home prices in most of California won’t return to the peak levels seen in 2006 until 2025 or later, according to a study by Fiserv. The data reflects an unprecedented real estate market cycle period of over 15 years.

Fiserv made more specific predictions for certain major cities. They posit the return of peak prices won’t occur until:

2022 in Santa Ana;
2024 in Oakland;
2024 in San Diego;
2026 in Los Angeles;
2028 in Fresno;
2032 in Riverside; and
2039 or later in Sacramento.
Predictions were calculated using the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (owned by Fiserv), which collects data on single family homes with at least two arms-length sales. Sales pairs for each home are compared, and any price change contributes to establish an equilibrium price trend.

In order to accurately measure changes in the value of a residential real estate market rather than changes in the value of an individual home, each sales pair is assigned a weight based on the price change and the home’s location.

Other factors considered in the data analysis include price anomalies, turnover frequency, time interval between sales and initial home value. Price peak recovery predictions were created using historical trend data and supplemented with data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

Editor’s note — All of these predictions were compiled in March 2010 before the new homebuyer tax credits temporarily boosted home sales by pre-selling homes to otherwise future buyers.

first tuesday take: Fiserv’s prediction that prices will return to the peak prices around 2025 is on par with first tuesday’s forecast. However, our separate processes of arriving at this projection were not nearly the same. [For more information regarding peak price predictions, see the September 2010 first tuesday article, Home sales volume and price peaks.]

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index sets the base years for collecting sales pairs at 1990 and 2000. Because 1990 was a peak price year, logically they should have chosen another peak price year for the 2nd base period. Using 2001 instead of 2000 to calculate price changes would have yielded a somewhat more accurate basis for their projections.

The report does not identify the cut-off date for data collection. Fiserv’s prediction may be evolving as more data is collected for 2010, so we will be keeping a close eye on any new forecasts they may release in the coming months.

In these projections, Fiserv has mastered the “art of the chartist” by basing future price movement on price trends of decades past, commencing in 1990 and 2000 (their base years), to then projecting the trajectory, set by the sale and resale of properties, into the future to predict when year-price increases will return to the peaks from early 2006. However, the purpose of looking back to history is to understand what drove past events, and then use that insight to make better-informed decisions to develop a forecast as an opinion about future prices — not to predict them by a mere projection.

History has shown us that home prices during the next couple of decades will rise close to the rate of consumer inflation (2% to 3%). We can safely infer that prices will continue to follow this inflationary pattern based on the decades following our Great Depression and its concurrent financial crisis of the 1930s, as well as the bond market’s analysis of inflation and dollar performance expectation in 30-year bonds.

Home pricing in the coming years will also be influenced by the retiring of the Baby Boomer generation (peaking in 2025) and the entry of the “Y” Generation into homeownership as first time buyers (peaking in 2018). These future events are used to support our forecast that California home prices will stabilize around 2014, with a “Y” Generation buying bump in prices around 2018, but won’t reach their 2006 peak again until around 2025. [For more information regarding demographics and California real estate trends, see the upcoming first tuesday article, The demographics forging California’s real estate market: a study of forthcoming trends and opportunities — Part I.]

This arcticle is stupid, theyll never return to those levels. Ill be happy with owning mine in 15 years and not having to pay rent or a mortgage anymore. All of the sudden, ill be loaded. Hello Vette, hehe.

[Benny Profane]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39634568

"The mortgage is still owed, but there's going to be a problem figuring out who actually holds the mortgage, and they would be the ones bringing the foreclosure. You have a trust that has been getting payments from borrowers for years that it has no right to receive. So you might see borrowers suing the trusts saying give me my money back, you're stealing my money. You're going to then have trusts that don't have any assets that have been issuing securities that say they're backed by a whole bunch of assets, and you're going to have investors suing the trustees for failing to inspect the collateral files, which the trustees say they're going to do, and you're going to have trustees suing the securitization sponsors for violating their representations and warrantees about what they were transferring."

[skier666]

Maybe we should package these mortgages and just sell them as securities....oh wait....