Oil Spill Predictions

[gunit130]

You just showed yourself to be one dumb Mo Fo. Religion has nothing to do with it. I used the word "faith' so you turn it into a religious thing? Everyone has faith in something. You have faith every time you get in a car that the guy in the other lane will stay on his side of the line. Does that make you a religious fanatic??

You have faith in the worlds biggest blind faith fantasy. Even bigger than religion....Government. Talk about lack of critical thinking and mind controlled programming. To place any "faith" in the all knowing, all seeing federal government requires a willing suspension of all common sense. Good luck following Obama as your God. Let me know how that works out for you.

Please pat yourself on the back for using terminology that you just read from my post. I truly hope you wiki'd that shit.

Sad, I am. I thought you would be able to understand his post, and mine.

Let me repeat Hohes post summary in a sentence:

Too few of the human race has the critical thinking capabilities needed to form a rational thought.

[neck beard]

Gunit -

don't love rationality too much. Being irrational is fun, easy and quite placating, like a drug. I do it quite often for those reasons and also because rationality leads me to conclusions that I don't like.


DBT-

1. For the record. Obama isn't my god, nor anything to me in the sense you imply. That's your odd slant on things tacked on at the end. And why do you suddenly claim that I have faith in government?? Just because I tend to think you are a dickhead, does not automatically imply that I have faith in govt, nor that Obama in my god. I am not part of your binary world clouded in ignorance.

2. Statistics, along with a common sense understanding of self-preservation, tells me that other drivers stay in their lane so reliably, for every mile driven, for every day since we have been driving, that driving today is safe. Faith has first class fuck all to do with it.

3. Don't confuse someone not bothering to think about the real world as having faith in it.

I am no smarter than the next guy and wrong just as often. But I am tempted to think you are the dumb mo fo.

[Downbound Train]

I admit. My last post was an alchohol aided rant that went off on a tangent.

My "faith" in the environment healing itself from this oil spill is based on years of watching people go apeshit about the enviro disaster of the day only to see the supposed disaster fade.

That and the realization that what Dex says is probably right. This oil is a drop in the bucket of the Gulf of Mexico. . I have "faith" that the gulf is a big fucking body of water that will deal with this amount of oil. I could be wrong. We'll see.

Saying "Faith" in this context is a shortcut for having to research for 20 minutes to find the volume of the gulf of Mexico and the volume of the oil and then figuring out the decomposition rate of oil based of the water temp and sun shine exposure combined with the action of the waves and the chemical dispersants used by BP, to develope a bogus theory based on facts and stats and numbers that you seem to think are the answer to everything. Five seconds of common sense, intuition and faith will usually trump a bunch of stats. How do you think I knew the stimulus wouldn't work when the big smart economists with reams of stats thought it would?

[jeremiahyawnson]

"If we don't learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it"

Here is a really well written report from a trip to just a couple of areas affected by the exxon spill, definitely worth the time to read it:

http://www.themudflats.net/2010/07/0...host-of-exxon/

[Triage]

Folks can decide for themselves whether or not unrestrained drilling, drag netting, and chemical runoff are worth it—whether or not it’s a market / government failure etc.—but the cumulative long term impact is real, if we define long term as 50+ yrs and not centuries/millennia.

For an overview of the impact over the past fifty years check out this video by coral reef ecologist Jeremy Jackson:

Jeremy Jackson: How we wrecked the ocean

Some of the stuff about rising ocean temps is contentious but the past and present pictures of the coral reefs and sport fish stocks make it worth watching regardless of political persuasion.

The phrase "the environment healing itself" is an odd phrase in this case since it is difficult to separate one spill, even a very big one, from everything else that has happened and everything that will happen. However, denying any impact through "faith" in the environment is like denying that the Gulf and the oceans have not already been adversely impacted and will continue to be adversely impacted.

[doughboyshredder]

If most of the spill area wasn't already a dead zone, maybe it would have done more damage?

[gh444]

AHAHAHAAHAHAH shit


"After adjusting for all non-operating items and fair value accounting effects, second-quarter underlying replacement cost profit was $5 billion compared to $2.9 billion in the second quarter of 2009. "

[Downbound Train]

My point is that the largest oil spill in history may be far less damaging than some people thought it would be. And that realization may have an impact on peoples negative perception of the oil industry. It may actually help the industry by letting people see how hard it is for even the worst case scenario to do major permanent damage.

Or all the oil is still hiding under water and we ain't seen nothing yet??

[gh444]

ahahahahaha shit


-- BP set aside $31B for Gulf costs and recorded a $10B tax refund.

[Mathematics]

My point is that the largest oil spill in history may be far less damaging than some people thought it would be. And that realization may have an impact on peoples negative perception of the oil industry. It may actually help the industry by letting people see how hard it is for even the worst case scenario to do major permanent damage.

Or all the oil is still hiding under water and we ain't seen nothing yet??

GoM event wasn't the worst case scenario, couldve been much much worse.

There are large plumes of oil under water, and huge miles wide pools of oil out in the middle of the gulf, that have yet to make it onto the publics radar because its not on their beach. There's also no way to know how the toxic dispersant they used is going affect things. Tourism, the fishery, local economies, etc are going to be adversely affected for years. Just because they capped the thing doesn't mean everythings going to be hunky dory...

As to changing the negative perception of the oil industry...doubtful. BP is in the spotlight now so they will pay, but as soon as that spotlight moves on I would bet money its going to be similar to Exxon Valdez...years of litigation & damage payments and environmental cleanup getting minimalized.

[Tippster]

Agreed.

We need a 3rd party to rule us all.

We need Aliens to arrive and take charge.

/everything covered in this thread.

We'll make great pets!

[Edgnar]

World ends in 2012.

Aliens nuke the gulf.

everyone gets full blown AIDES

[Tippster]

Aides? Like secretaries? Hope mine has nice boobz!

[Edgnar]

The radiation guaranties nice hudge titz

[ArmadaBC]

http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-sp...st_of_mis.html

There are alot more spills than most people realize

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2...ed_wellhe.html

[wcf3]

There is quite a bit of oil going into the oceans all the time. Major oil spills are a rather small proportion of the total, when averaged over time. Some data on this can be found at the following link:

http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources.../oilspills.htm

[Spats]

Alaska is still seriously contaminated from the Valdez spill...from well over a decade ago. This is many times worse.

Here's a disgusting video of what lies just under the surface of an apparently clean beach:
http://video.godlikeproductions.com/...or_generations

[Mathematics]

There are alot more spills than most people realize

There are, but I bet each one thats on US soil gets 100x the news coverage now. For instance this one in MI, right by where I went college:

http://www.wwmt.com/articles/margin-...ttom-page.html

State of emergency declared after oil spill
Comments 16 | Recommend 2
July 27, 2010 5:47 PM

WEST MICHIGAN (NEWSCHANNEL 3) – A state of emergency has been declared in response to the spreading oil spill in West Michigan.

Kalamazoo County's Office of Emergency Management has declared a local state of emergency in response to the leak.

The Emergency Operations Center has been activated to coordinate response efforts, and the Kalamazoo Chapter of the American Red Cross is preparing for possible sheltering of residents nearby.

Newschannel 3 has had crews out since Monday afternoon keeping on eye on the spill and the efforts to contain it.

A spokesperson for Enbridge Energy says it is the company's responsibility to clean up the spill, and the company will do so under the oversight of the DNRE and the EPA.

Before Enbridge tries to determine what caused the leak, the priority is containing all the oil.

“There's one boom further upstream, there's one right there,” said Kristine Boley-Morse when Newschannel 3 spoke to her near Marshall.

Boley-Morse grew up on the Kalamazoo River, and on Tuesday she was out helping to track the oil spill's damage.

“I spent many years on the Kalamazoo River,” said Boley-Morse, “trying to improve it, and it's kind of, we get knocked down to square one again.”

Boley-Morse works with the Calhoun Conservation District, just one of the agencies that's monitoring the spread of the 800,000 plus gallons that leaked into Talmadge Creek.

800k gallons in the world of oil spills is pretty small but its enough to affect the kzoo/marshall area adversely. and people are paying attention...I only caught this recent article because it was plastered allover my facebook from friends in the area.

[DJSapp]

BP is in the spotlight now so they will pay, but as soon as that spotlight moves on I would bet money its going to be similar to Exxon Valdez...years of litigation & damage payments and environmental cleanup getting minimalized.

Exactly this. BP has been making the right moves at the right time.

1. Allow the CEO to be a pariah during the worst of the event. Everyone hates that douchebag, because they need someone to hate. Behind the scenes work like hell to develop a plan to kill it. Cancel dividend and sell a minor asset that you were going to sell anyway to 'generate funds for the cleanup effort'

2a. When there is a light at the end of the tunnel, shitcan said pariah (even though he's going to work for the Russian/BP joint venture). Grab headlines, douchebag is out.

2b. Post quarterly earnings as a huge loss (write off entire disaster now to cover the fact that is was a very profitable quarter, and get a bonus tax break)

3. Finally kill off well, install new CEO, everything will be ok America! Boy did this hurt our company, look at those quarterly earnings. Here's the new CEO scrubbing a pelican (which will die within a month anyway). Hooray the new BP and Gulf Coast jobs!

4. Clean up the visible area's until the next scandal grabs the spotlight. Report 4 billion in 3rd qtr profits once nobody is looking. Restore dividend because retirees in England are counting on it.

5. Sweep the rest under the rug, reclaim 12 Billion of the cleanup fund over the next 4 years to avoid attention. The solution to pollution is dillution, and the gulf is really fucking big. That little bit of leftover oil you see is from the cruise ship, and the reason there is no fishing in the gulf is pesticides from farming in the midwest. I.E. YOU CAN'T PROVE SHIT MOTHERFUCKER.

This will be forgotten by 90% of Americans before the end of the year, if they kill the well in the next week.

and Gonehuckin gets it too.

[flyandski365]

DBT, is your avatar what I think it is? Because its blowing my mind right now.

[EZB]

Everyone has faith in something. You have faith every time you get in a car that the guy in the other lane will stay on his side of the line. Does that make you a religious fanatic??

You have faith in the worlds biggest blind faith fantasy. Even bigger than religion....Government. Talk about lack of critical thinking and mind controlled programming. To place any "faith" in the all knowing, all seeing federal government requires a willing suspension of all common sense.

First step: Get rid of all those white and yellow lines on the road.

[Downbound Train]

DBT, is your avatar what I think it is? Because its blowing my mind right now.

I don't know...What do you think it is?

Here's another article about the oil spill disapearing and some speculation as to what's happening.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews_excl/ynews_excl_sc3270

[Mofro261]

DJSapp FTMFW.

[montanaskier]

yep....it's basically all gone...nothing to see here.

http://www.noaa.gov/sciencemissions/...t_GU-10-02.pdf

[DJSapp]

yep....it's basically all gone...nothing to see here.

http://www.noaa.gov/sciencemissions/...t_GU-10-02.pdf

Your report is based on 2 month old information.

Jane Lubchenco, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said much oil had been "biodegraded by naturally occurring bacteria".

Full article: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-10791343

The same administration that put out your report is now saying the bacteria is eating it. Now what I'm afraid of is all of these oil rich bacteria clumping together and forming a sentiant life form, terrorizing small towns. I think they made a movie about it