Oil Spill Predictions

[Downbound Train]

The spill seems to be breaking up and being "absorbed" by nature pretty quickly. Is this article just wishfull thinking? Are there millions of gallons below the surface waiting to wreak havoc? Or will the oil just mostly break down at sea and peter out? Is the worst over for the coastline of the gulf?

http://abcnews.go.com/WN/bp-oil-spil...ry?id=11254252

"At its peak last month, the oil slick was the size of Kansas, but it has been rapidly shrinking, now down to the size of New Hampshire."



What do you think will happen?

[gunit130]

Dude, nobody knows what's going to happen.

And most people on this board sure as shit don't have a clue. We mostly all live away from the ocean.

[neck beard]

What do you think will happen?

What one thinks will happen in nature usually depends on ones political bias.

Nature and humans and politics are odd in that way.

[gunit130]

Global Warming is a hoax?

[Downbound Train]

What one thinks will happen in nature usually depends on ones political bias.

Nature and humans and politics are odd in that way.

So a conservative thinks the oil will absorb and not cause much more damage and a liberal thinks it will spread to the Atlantic and soil every beach between Florida and Iceland?

Or the other way around?

[neck beard]

Global Warming is a hoax?

AGW is real and happening now and you can do something about it!

...Yes, that kind of thing.

[OSECS]

^ DBT, one's an optimist and one's a pessimist.

[neck beard]

So a conservative thinks the oil will absorb and not cause much more damage and a liberal thinks it will spread to the Atlantic and soil every beach between Florida and Iceland?

That is what I would expect each to think (hope), thanks to their hardwired biases.

[gunit130]

^ And one bases their opinion on fact, reasoning and education.

[gunit130]

So a conservative thinks the oil will absorb and not cause much more damage and a liberal thinks it will spread to the Atlantic and soil every beach between Florida and Iceland?

I think you're right on with this. Two people at work were arguing about this a month ago. One was a clear cut Conservative and one was a clear cut Liberal. Neither had enough information to form a fact based opinion.

[neck beard]

^ And one bases their opinion on fact, reasoning and education.

Not so fast. There are Libs who are deeply irrational and cherry pick science for their own agenda as either their friend (AGW research, alternate energy), or, the tool of the evil capitalist (genetics, space exploration).

[gh444]

My over/under for their Q2 results is $5b profit. Announced tomorrow.

[OSECS]

Not so fast. There are Libs who are deeply irrational and cherry pick science for their own agenda as either their friend (AGW research, alternate energy), or, the tool of the evil capitalist (genetics, space exploration).

FTW, just as some conservs. do exactly the same thing.

[neck beard]

Yes, you can flip that statement around and it still works. At a guess, one is driven by irrational fear (Lib), and the other irrational greed (Con).

[gunit130]

My over/under for their Q2 results is $5b profit. Announced tomorrow.

BP?

gonehuckin knows what's up.

[Downbound Train]

I really think the spill will not be as bad as most people think. I have faith in the earth to repair. I could be totally wrong. If it does absorb most of the oil without much additional damage, we just lived through the nightmare oil spill scenario.

Will it cause the general public to be LESS fearfull of evil oil spills in the future? Therefore, being LESS interested in alternative energy?

There doesn't seem to be as big a ground swell to stop drilling for oil like you might have thought there would be as it is...

[neck beard]

I really think the spill will not be as bad as most people think. I have faith in the earth to repair.

You see there is the problem with things like religion, even if most people do not identify themselves as being religious, we live in a perversely religious society. That same irrational faith is dangerously transferred to areas of significant practical implications in the natural world. We are taught [programmed] not to inquire and think, rather to believe. We are programmed to put our interest before the interest of our host (the planet). We are programmed that cause and effect does not exist, or can be absolved with faith. It is not in our best interests as a species to be programmed like that.

[gunit130]

You see there is the problem with things like religion, even if most people do not identify themselves as being religious, we live in a perversely religious society. That same irrational faith is dangerously transferred to areas of significant practical implications in the natural world. We are taught [programmed] not to inquire and think, rather to believe. We are programmed to put our interest before the interest of our host (the planet). We are programmed that cause and effect does not exist, or can be absolved with faith. It is not in our best interests as a species to be programmed like that.

Hell yeah!

This is the problem as described by Hohes. Too few of the human race has the critical thinking capabilities needed to form a rational thought.

[ski_adk]

Hell yeah!

This is the problem as described by Hohes. Too few of the human race has the critical thinking capabilities needed to form a rational thought.

While I agree with your observations, I believe this has been going on ever since Ogg and Blogg had a disagreement about shitting in the cave...

[neck beard]

Agreed.

We need a 3rd party to rule us all.

We need Aliens to arrive and take charge.

/everything covered in this thread.

[Mathematics]

This spill is as bad or worse as you may think. Look at Nigeria, Ecuador, etc.. There are comparable, factual, real world situations you can look at that should immediately strike down any notion of "hey, that wasnt that bad".

[Dexter Rutecki]

This may go against the grain, but I'm one of those who wouldn't be too surprised if the overall effect of all this turns out to be not nearly as bad as some expect. Of course, anything less than permanent, catastrophic damage to thousands of miles of coastline would be less bad than what some seem to predict.

I began thinking about this spill in terms of the Exxon Valdez spill, and realized that even with the greater volume of oil (and different type of oil, although I don't know exactly what difference that makes), it might not be as bad due to the depth and hugely larger volume of water the oil's been released into. I don't know the exact dimensions of Prince William Sound vs. the Gulf, but I imagine it's several thousand times difference in size, and probably millions of times difference in terms of water volume. So even with a vastly larger amount of oil I would think the effects could be much less.

Maybe it's wishful thinking, and I don't doubt there will be (and already has been) some pretty terrible damage, but I really think it's possible that in a year or two most of the Gulf Coast could be in good shape.

[Downbound Train]

This may go against the grain, but I'm one of those who wouldn't be too surprised if the overall effect of all this turns out to be not nearly as bad as some expect. Of course, anything less than permanent, catastrophic damage to thousands of miles of coastline would be less bad than what some seem to predict.

I began thinking about this spill in terms of the Exxon Valdez spill, and realized that even with the greater volume of oil (and different type of oil, although I don't know exactly what difference that makes), it might not be as bad due to the depth and hugely larger volume of water the oil's been released into. I don't know the exact dimensions of Prince William Sound vs. the Gulf, but I imagine it's several thousand times difference in size, and probably millions of times difference in terms of water volume. So even with a vastly larger amount of oil I would think the effects could be much less.

Maybe it's wishful thinking, and I don't doubt there will be (and already has been) some pretty terrible damage, but I really think it's possible that in a year or two most of the Gulf Coast could be in good shape.

Mark the calendar. DBT agrees with DEX.

[gunit130]

DBT, how can anyone disagree with you and your sexy new avatar?

[Downbound Train]

You see there is the problem with things like religion, even if most people do not identify themselves as being religious, we live in a perversely religious society. That same irrational faith is dangerously transferred to areas of significant practical implications in the natural world. We are taught [programmed] not to inquire and think, rather to believe. We are programmed to put our interest before the interest of our host (the planet). We are programmed that cause and effect does not exist, or can be absolved with faith. It is not in our best interests as a species to be programmed like that.

You just showed yourself to be one dumb Mo Fo. Religion has nothing to do with it. I used the word "faith' so you turn it into a religious thing? Everyone has faith in something. You have faith every time you get in a car that the guy in the other lane will stay on his side of the line. Does that make you a religious fanatic??

You have faith in the worlds biggest blind faith fantasy. Even bigger than religion....Government. Talk about lack of critical thinking and mind controlled programming. To place any "faith" in the all knowing, all seeing federal government requires a willing suspension of all common sense. Good luck following Obama as your God. Let me know how that works out for you.