Israel to attack Iran

[Jer]

Is there even a difference, to most of the world?
The perception is Israel=US. And for good reason, obviously.

Well not quite, at least in Yurp Israel is seens as a sovereign country... Just backed up by US. I'm sure your perception is more the view of muslim world...

Nah - his perception is more the view of naive 17 year old Canuck internet warriors. And wingnut anti-semites.

The scary part is no one can really talk Israel out of doing anything. They will bomb anyone who is a perceived threat, no matter what the US, UN, or Jer says.

Actually - they listen to me. I'm not stopping them this time tho.

[Ankf00]

israel has f-15's & conformal external tanks that will provide them the range.

how many of them do they have?

[enlosandes]

Israel bombing Iran would get McCain elected, you heard it hear first.

[PNWbrit]

Israel bombing Iran would get McCain elected, you heard it hear first.

Do you do long term leases?

Availablity from November onwards?

Spanish lessons?

Dog friendly?

He read 1984 but didn't get the point

[Cono Este]

I know I am bit ahead of myself, but I want to blame the French for illicit weapon sales that cost the Israelis a plane or two.

[Big Balls]

Although Isreal has the capability to bitch slap everyone around it all at once, it does not have the ability to get the job done in Iran. They do have the ability to blow up Iran but I do not think a nuclear first strike is on the table. If we are talking strictly conventional then they can only dish out limited damage to Iran. What will probably happen is they strike and we are left to finish the job (after using some response on us by Iran as the excuse).

[Big Balls]

I know I am bit ahead of myself, but I want to blame the French for illicit weapon sales that cost the Israelis a plane or two.

I'm all about blaming the French any which way we can. I think with whatever problem there is in life one should always first blame the French and then blame others.

[Aussie_ripper]

Well, if they take on Iran, that sure will solve that tricky little Israel problem. Whipped right off the earth. Whew, now isn't that so much easier?

[Jer]

Well, if they take on Iran, that sure will solve that tricky little Israel problem. Whipped right off the earth. Whew, now isn't that so much easier?

I seriously doubt that Iran could "whip" Isreal off the face of the earth. More like the other way around there smart guy. Unless the Iranians intend to suffocate them with horrible body odor.

[MTT]

They bombed a plant in Iraq
They bombed a plant in Syria not long ago

Iran has stated very clearly that they wish to (DESTROY) Isreal, they are attempting to develop a wapon that could do the job, I belive thats a very real act of WAR and Isreal has every right to take action.

So is this something they are planning for the near future? I thought Iran was in the construction phase of an enrichment plant. Seems it should be a couple years before it would be productive.

Interesting problerm, Iran regardless of what I think of the leadership has a right to use nuclear power, they need enriched Uranium to run the plant.
Enriched Uranium is used for Nuclear wepons also.

Russia and a few other countries have offered to sell them fuel Uranium.

What Country wants to be relaint on another for thier power?

I know other Countries in the Mideast have Nuclear Power Plant, hwere do theu get thier Fuel rods?

[Big Balls]

Ok people you need to get something straight. Iran is TRYING to build a HANDFUL of LOW YEILD nuclear weapons that may be attached to inaccurate unreliable delivery systems. Isreal has many hundreds of high yeild high tech nuclear weapons on very solid and accurate delivery systems (submarines, cruise missles, ect, ect). If Iran is succesful in their endeavor they will have the ability to fry between 100k and 200k Isrealis. Isreal currently has the ability to put the entire country of Iran through an oven. So if it did come down to nukes Isreal would merely be damaged, Iran would be wiped off the map. That's a fact. It's been wargamed under many different scenarios and that is always the end result.

[MTT]

Ok people you need to get something straight. Iran is TRYING to build a HANDFUL of LOW YEILD nuclear weapons that may be attached to inaccurate unreliable delivery systems. Isreal has many hundreds of high yeild high tech nuclear weapons on very solid and accurate delivery systems (submarines, cruise missles, ect, ect). If Iran is succesful in their endeavor they will have the ability to fry between 100k and 200k Isrealis. Isreal currently has the ability to put the entire country of Iran through an oven. So if it did come down to nukes Isreal would merely be damaged, Iran would be wiped off the map. That's a fact. It's been wargamed under many different scenarios and that is always the end result.

Thats the point is it not? A nuclear war cannot happen. It has to stop before it starts. Popular world opionion is that the government in Iran is (NUTS) and would do something stupid like light of a nuke. Isreal, US anywhere as a terrorist attack. Yea there a several Contries that could nuke them into oblivion but who would want to? It can't start.

Why does Iran continue to fund war and Terror all over the Middeleast?
Lebanon, WestBank Isreal. Iraq. WTF they continue to create suffering and kaos all over the area.

It does not have to be this way.

[Big Balls]

I'm not saying we shouldn't bitch slap Iran, I'm just pointing out their limited capabilities. Btw, out of all the countries in the world I think the absolute scariest one in my mind to have nukes is Pakistan......... which happens to actually have nukes.

[Cliff Huckable]

Well not quite, at least in Yurp Israel is seens as a sovereign country... Just backed up by US. I'm sure your perception is more the view of muslim world...

Nah - his perception is more the view of naive 17 year old Canuck internet warriors. And wingnut anti-semites.

Cue your conspiracy theories about how teh jooooooooos control the US

It's a kind of automatic response from some people isn't it? If you're not praising Israel, you must be an anti-semite. Who's the naive keyboard warrior? Who's jumping to ridiculous conclusions? Tim-tsots Li Et Habeitsim Ha-seyrot, ffs.

My point is not what my perception is, but how it would be perceived world-wide.
Does Israel have just a normal relationship with the US? Does the US give every country $3,000,000,000/year for defence?

In Washington's eyes, Israel is to regular countries what Cuban-Americans are to regular Americans.

Israel hails US military aid rise
29 July 2007

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has confirmed that the United States is planning a significant increase in military and defence aid to Israel.

The package would reportedly amount to more than $30bn (£14.8bn) over the next 10 years.

Mr Olmert described it as an important element for the security of Israel.
....
More yadda yadda yadda here

[Jer]

What Country wants to be relaint on another for thier power?

The US?

It's a kind of automatic response from some people isn't it? If you're not praising Israel, you must be an anti-semite. Who's the naive keyboard warrior? Who's jumping to ridiculous conclusions?

It's called a joke there Yahoo Serious. You can't honestly tell me you've been posting here all this time and you still haven't seen The Big Lebowski? Really, Cliff, try to find some sort of sense of humor. That way you won't come off looking like a butthurt douche like you just did.



"War is just another game
Tailor-made for the insane
But make a threat at their annihilation
And nobody wants to play
If that's the only thing that keeps the peace
I'll Thank God for the bomb!" - O. Osbourne

[enlosandes]

Do you do long term leases?

Availablity from November onwards?

Spanish lessons?

Dog friendly?

He read 1984 but didn't get the point

Yes to all of the above, and if our place is booked, I'll personally fine you somewhere else!

[Gripen]

Doubtful that Israel could pull this off to be honest. The range is just too far, Israel had a very difficult time with the Osirak reactor in terms of fuel management. F-16's in particular. CFT's would certainly help but the range, in a straight line to Tehran is thousands of km's. The planes would be very heavily loaded, have no tanker support, no CSAR capability. Logistically I do not see these happening with manned aircraft. Simply put they don't have the force projection capability to undertake this kind of endeavor.

Remember that Iran has a very dense and high tech air defense system (including S-300's), has fairly well trained aircrews and aircraft. (Do not know the status of their AD forces off-hand, but could find out pretty quick.) Plus, flying low and fast through an AD saturated area burns fuel at an astronomical rate, without tanker support, if they are forced into a defensive posture I doubt they could even make it out of Iran without being critical on fuel.

It is simply to high risk for a first strike option.

BTW They did not overfly Jordanian territory for more then a few minutes when they struck Osirak, they took off from the Negev, very briefly (if it all over actually) Jordanian land then over Saudi Arabia for the majority of the flight. I have no doubts the Saudis would "look the other way" if a similar thing happened again.

Thats all I got for a short response. Maybe after a few beers and some thinking I can come up with a little more.

[Liberal Genius]

When are we going to send Obama in for the Iran/Israel peace talks?

[enlosandes]

Gripen, you sound like you know what your talking about. Perhaps you could advise the next president and do a better job than that dickhead Rumsfeld?

[Falldise]

Isreal is core when it comes to this stuff. They wiped their reactor earlier(year ago or so), they released pictures of it flattened not long ago in the news

[Ankf00]

Remember that Iran has a very dense and high tech air defense system (including S-300's), has fairly well trained aircrews and aircraft.

while true and an obstacle not to be easily dismissed, israel also has formidable EW capabilities. note that in the syrian raid, syrian capability was blacked out for a portion of time. and syria does have some of russia's best AA systems.

[Dexter Rutecki]

If this happens it will mean that Iran is pretty close to being nuclear capable. Israel has very good intelligence on Iran (no doubt Persian Jews still in Iran, and others, help quite a bit) and wouldn't try anything if it weren't necessary (the 1981 strike in Iraq set the Iraqi program back decades--and probably forever, given what's happened since).
And they won't do it if there's a good chance it wouldn't work. Obviously it would be tricky with range/overflight issues, but if it comes to it I would guess the USAF might find a way to have a stray tanker or two available, even if no one would admit to it later.

Obviously it would be better if no strike were necessary, and Iran has really been trying to play innocent recently, but I just read that nuclear experts who analyzed the photos of Ahmadinajaineinaanadanedad touring the nuke plant identified the centrifuges as the types that do enrichment for bomb fuel, so...

We'll see. I wouldn't count on anything happening too soon, and the Iranians learned from the Iraqi strike and have really fortified the plants.

[Big Balls]

but if it comes to it I would guess the USAF might find a way to have a stray tanker or two available, even if no one would admit to it later.

I was kind of thinking that too, but then again it's kind of hard to have plausible deniability when a squadron of planes should have run out of fuel and crashed over Iraq but by some miracle of god they were SOME HOW able to instead continue on a thousand more miles.

[Gripen]

while true and an obstacle not to be easily dismissed, israel also has formidable EW capabilities. note that in the syrian raid, syrian capability was blacked out for a portion of time. and syria does have some of russia's best AA systems.

Noted, but what platforms were they using to do so? Highly doubtful they could escort said fighters to Iran.

Syria is also their backyard, ELINT isn't hard for them to come by. The Iranians have played with the US enough in the Gulf to be smart enough to be hiding true electronic signatures to a large degree.

Plus, the dispersion of the targets in Iran would prove large scale ECW limited. The dispersion would be a huge difficulty in itself. In order not to "wake up" air defenses prematurely the ingress and egress of the strike packages would have to be incredibly well orchestrated. Something that the aforementioned fuel management issues would reek havoc with.

I do think there are way Israel *might* deal with this, but I think I'll leave it at that for now.

[Dexter Rutecki]

A very detailed MIT analysis of a possible strike on Iran, and it clarifies that Israel has ways of solving the range problem--most probably by using their own KC-707 tankers over the Mediterranean. Kind of interesting, but too long for general interest: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/....7?cookieSet=1