Colorado to get pounded (map pic)

[truth]

meh

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/gra...sWeek.php#tabs

[Kya]

November 20. The very best day for snow to fall since '73

Happy Birthday I infer

[samuelf]

I think utah is going to get pounded. All the forecasts are looking good. Go UTAH!

[funkendrenchman]

The latest forecasts aren't too optimistic, but we know what can happen when only a couple of inches are predicted.

[daver]

[JINX] anyone know a cheap place on the front range to get tires mounted and balanced? still haven't found a good shop [/JINX]

[alldownhill]

[JINX] anyone know a cheap place on the front range to get tires mounted and balanced? still haven't found a good shop [/JINX]

Discount Tire is pretty cheap. There's one on 28th street.

[skiHOG]

got new tires on the truck a couple weeks ago from discount tire. best prices, and i had my truck back ready to go in 1.5 hours.

[goldenboy]

Happy Birthday I infer

Yeah, can't get anything by you

[Deep Days]

What have you sacrificed lately?

My peach fuzz that I've been growing since April.

To be honest, a long list of factors, including the recent drought, have contributed to an all-time low for Gosey ski "stoked"ness. So that would reeeeally help me out.

If that happens... I'll be a happy man. Please, please.

[BigJay]

I'm going to sacrifice my liver to Ullr. Tonight.

[funkendrenchman]

I haven't heard one forecast use the words heavy snow since this post was made.

0 days of skiing so far in November makes me very unhappy!!!! And no I don't wanna pay to go ski groomers and there isn't anywhere within a reasonable travel distance that has conditions so awesome I want to spend time and money to travel.

[CoAlpha]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...ield2=-106.047

"stick with it, stick with it..."

temps are finally going down

[Name Redacted]

Looks like it'll be an upslope = bad for summit

[Rontele]

Yeah, can't get anything by you

Perchance do we celebrate the same birthday? (the 20th?)

If so, tomorrow is a great day.

[Rontele]

I haven't heard one forecast use the words heavy snow since this post was made.

0 days of skiing so far in November makes me very unhappy!!!! And no I don't wanna pay to go ski groomers and there isn't anywhere within a reasonable travel distance that has conditions so awesome I want to spend time and money to travel.

Yup. The forecasters are kind of shitting the bed this fall. They would be better off tempering their expectations given the models inability to reach solutions more than 36 hours out...

They should KNOW this shit and not word their forecasts to give us hope that we may actually get a significant snow storm. I knew it was kind of doomed when I read that the subtropical moisture tap was getting cut off...

[smmokan]

Awesome. Now we can build on the killer base we have with this 4" storm that's coming. If we're lucky. Maybe next week we'll get 6".

[KansasBoarder]

I'll be out of town during that time. This will ensure the snow will happen.

Ditto, I'm leaving the mountains mid-day Tuesday, returning the following Tuesday...snow is forecasted to fall Tuesday night through the next Monday.

[pappag]

I too will be out of town from Wednesday morning through Saturday morning, so I expect lots of snow that will be crusted out by the time I return.

Godspeed.



And about local news sensationalizing snow storms, maybe if we had more shootings and maybe if the Broncos were undefeated, they wouldn't have time to fill up airtime with 100% inaccurate predictions about a storm that is more than a week away (real predictions shouldn't even occur until 36 hours before the storm is scheduled to hit). Then again, as I've come to do my own research and forecasting for surfing, maybe more people should incorporate that with skiing and leave the hype off the board completely.

[montanaskier]

This storm is a definate no go. 3-6 inches looks to be the most likely, but I am a negative nelly so I say more like just a couple. I would say that we will be lucky to get 75% of our our normal snow. I hate La Nina!


http://www.vaildaily.com/article/20071119/NEWS/71119006

[Rontele]

This storm is a definate no go. 3-6 inches looks to be the most likely, but I am a negative nelly so I say more like just a couple. I would say that we will be lucky to get 75% of our our normal snow. I hate La Nina!


http://www.vaildaily.com/article/20071119/NEWS/71119006

The problem is that what Klaus is saying doesn't agree with their long-lead forecasts. 75% of normal is still close to 300inches of snow.

And isn't this your first winter here too?

One of two things can happen. It can either snow or it won't snow, neither of which any of our nerdy forecast can control. Everyone has huts trips and wants it to snow, not just you.

[funkendrenchman]

NOAA doesn't seem to completely agree with what was said in the Vail Daily article. While they are forecasting above normal temps for the winter, they are have equal chances of dry or wet conditions for most of Colorado, with a 33% chance of a wetter than normal winter in N. Utah. It does look like I will need to plan a trip or two to the PNW or BC.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...07_midsize.jpg

[FrankZappa]

Read Marshal's lips:

it snows roughly the same amount of snow every year. the less it snows now, the more it snows later. not a big deal.

[Rontele]

NOAA doesn't seem to completely agree with what was said in the Vail Daily article. While they are forecasting above normal temps for the winter, they are have equal chances of dry or wet conditions for most of Colorado, with a 33% chance of a wetter than normal winter in N. Utah. It does look like I will need to plan a trip or two to the PNW or BC.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...07_midsize.jpg

Also look at the Feb/Mar./Apr. long-lead map on the CPC page.

Right. Their long-lead forecasts differ from what they said. There is a contrarian set of algorythyms and modeling, which produces the result that Wolster is getting in the article. I don't have time to look for it now, but if you google "Colorado and La Nina," I believe it is the 2nd link.

It calls for a far drier winter. Marshal has hit it on the head, however, it is very rare for Colorado to have a freak winter--like 2002--so eventually it will snow, maybe not 400 inches, but 75% of that is still 300 inches.

[SILENCER]

From 9News today, the last sentence didn't have me jumping for joy:


KUSA - After what seems like weeks and weeks of dry weather and above average temperatures, Colorado is going to have an abrupt change to winter conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.


Monday will be yet another warm and dry day across the Centennial State. Highs in the 70s and even low 80s are possible in eastern Colorado Monday with 50s and 60s in the mountains and western valleys.

A cold front with Polar air will be slamming into the state from the north during the day on Tuesday. Areas in northern Colorado will feel temperatures drop very quickly during the middle of the morning with communities in the central and southern portions of the state having a few more hours of warmth before the front moves in later in the day Tuesday

Very light snow showers will develop in the Front Range mountains Tuesday afternoon with flurries forming later in the evening hours in the Denver-Boulder-Ft.Collins areas.

Wednesday will be cloudy and cold along the Front Range with light snowfall. 9NEWS Meteorologist Marty Coniglio says that while it will be very, very cold right now he doesn't see any indication that the snowfall will be anything but modest for Denver and surrounding communities. There will be an accumulation of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with just flurries late Wednesday afternoon in the Denver area and along the Front Range.

For skiers hoping for a last-minute blast of snow to create ideal holiday skiing conditions this storm is bound to be a disappointment. Some of the ski areas in the northern half of the state will see a few inches of snow, but this storm will not blanket the entire high-country with loads of powder.





(Copyright KUSA*TV, All Rights Reserved)

[Rontele]

Here is Klaus Wolster's article

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/SWcasts/

Scroll down about 2/3 of the way to get to the jist of his argument.