Real Estate Crash thread

[Kevo]

Things are really slowing down here in Teton Valley.

My neighbor across sold for in two days back in Feb

Seems like the bottom dropped out sometime around April.

Comparable houses are now sitting unsold at 20% less than that house across the street for months and months. Inventory is rising significantly.

I think the inventory on the market would have to be priced 30% or more below recent valuations to transact today.

[MultiVerse]

This year there will be more homeowners with rates over 6% than below 3%:

- 20.7% of mortgaged homes have a rate <3%
- 32.7% have a rate 3.0 - 3.99%
- 17.9% have a rate 4.0 - 4.99%
- 9.9% have a rate 5.0 - 5.99%
- 18.8% have a rate >= 6%

Source: National Mortgage Database (NMDB) statistics

[liv2ski]

"Comparable houses are now sitting unsold at 20% less than that house across the street for months and months. Inventory is rising significantly.

I think the inventory on the market would have to be priced 30% or more below recent valuations to transact today".

Not yet the case in my hood, but it is the beach and a nice one at that. I would love to see a 30% mark down in San Diego. Then my youngest could afford a place.

[yeahman]

Then my youngest could afford a place.

I'd like the same for my kids in the next few years. Unfortunately a drop like that would inevitably come with a tough job market just as they are graduating college.

[yeahman]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...isk-Zones.html

Another article about the home insurance crisis.

[406]

House on my block same floor plan (smallest) sold in a week, 50k over asking, and closed escrow in 30, moved in already so I'm assuming owner occupied. I was shocked market still that hot. Most inventory I have seen. Inland San Diego.I always keep an eye on Missoula, tons of inventory but still crazy high prices.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Showed a really nice house in desirable sub with adjacent trails a couple weeks ago. Priced very well. Good clean house, good views, great landscaping, etc. Sellers aren't in lala land clearly. 13 showings in the first 18ish hours on the market. They paused a couple days to review all offers. Under contract that night. Will be curious to see how much over asking when it closes. It wasn't a fire sale price, it was just well thought out. Good work by the listing agent and I'm sure sellers will be happy.

The demand is there. Problem is too many overpriced listings that just sit. Some very nice houses that are 200-300k+ too high which will go 250+ DOM and seller will get wrecked in the process.

[yeahman]

Buddy who is in Candlelight Meadows condos at Big Sky says his HOA got dropped by their insurance company.

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[4matic]

It’s actually a lot cheaper to rent than buy now. Almost record level spread: US Rents were down [emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]].[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]% over the last year, the [emoji638][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]th consecutive month with a YoY decline. Renting a home is cheaper than paying a mortgage in all [emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]] of the largest metros in the US.

[liv2ski]

In HCOLA rent has always been less than the initial PITI. It is over time that the rent goes up and the PITI stays the same. Eventually you end up with a paid off loan, so just taxes & insurance, which is way cheaper than rent 30 years down the road.
Paying rent is a foolish way to go through life if you have any other alternative IMO.

[californiagrown]

In HCOLA rent has always been less than the initial PITI. It is over time that the rent goes up and the PITI stays the same. Eventually you end up with a paid off loan, so just taxes & insurance, which is way cheaper than rent 30 years down the road. Paying rent is a foolish way to go through life if you have any other alternative IMO.

If you save $1k/month by renting (assuming rent is lower than mortgage, no maintenance/upkeep fees etc), and you invested in the S&P500, over the last 30 years you would have ~2.3million. Not a bad ROI.

REally though, the benefit is the freedom to move easily, and not being tied down and dependent on the RE market (though, you would now be dependent on the stock market instead). Different strokes for different folks.

[up an down]

... financial projections all depend on the assumptions.. cost of maintaining a home are usually ignored when comparing ownership to rental... As are the real estate taxes .... And there can be some other uncommon $$ surprises...one of which I experienced years ago.. and it&#39;s usually a lot cheaper to move from one rental to another instead of having to sell and move from one owned house to another if circumstances change.. yeah there is often a capital gain when selling.. but it can be reduced by the capital gain tax...... It&#39;s all a lot of guess work .. but the cliche lives on because there is some truth to it some of the time..

[californiagrown]

there is some truth to it some of the time..

Yep. With a wife and kid and a <3% interest rate it made sense to buy a house in a great neighborhood and have that great situation locked down long term.

If i was single, or wanted more freedom in my life then renting might have made more sense. I think a lot depends on the person and what they want out of a living situation... buying or renting isnt inherently better than the other IMO.

[Danno]

Rent vs own is very complex as is mentioned, but there are advantages to owning vs renting too. Yes, renting gives more flexibility but sometimes that is forced upon you: landlord evicts you, decides to sell, raises the rent more than you want to spend, etc. Also, when you own you get to do what you want with the property, you don't have to ask for approval or whatever. And if you have pets, owning is way easier.

I get wanting "freedom and flexibility", but IMO rent vs own each provides their own version of freedom and flexibility; it is not like one or the other wins in those categories.

[nickwm21]

Paying rent is a foolish way to go through life if you have any other alternative IMO.

It’s just simply. not. possible. for a massive chunk of the population now; Any place desirable is $800k min, then 7% APR. The math is essentially impossible without help or a superstar career.

I hope you all scooped up second properties pre-2022 to pass to your kids, otherwise they are fucked.


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[byates1]

^^

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[up an down]

Vans by the river are beyond average persons means now.. ..much more likely to be able to afford a refrigerator box by the landfill.

[Name Redacted]

Rent vs own is very complex as is mentioned, but there are advantages to owning vs renting too. Yes, renting gives more flexibility but sometimes that is forced upon you: landlord evicts you, decides to sell, raises the rent more than you want to spend, etc. Also, when you own you get to do what you want with the property, you don&#39;t have to ask for approval or whatever. And if you have pets, owning is way easier. I get wanting &quot;freedom and flexibility&quot;, but IMO rent vs own each provides their own version of freedom and flexibility; it is not like one or the other wins in those categories.

^^that
The great thing is, interest rates fluctuate, as do housing prices. Being patient and waiting for the right conditions before you buy can pay off. I know it is easier said than done, of course.

[fastfred]

... financial projections all depend on the assumptions.. cost of maintaining a home are usually ignored when comparing ownership to rental... As are the real estate taxes .... And there can be some other uncommon $$ surprises...one of which I experienced years ago.. and it&#39;s usually a lot cheaper to move from one rental to another instead of having to sell and move from one owned house to another if circumstances change.. yeah there is often a capital gain when selling.. but it can be reduced by the capital gain tax...... It&#39;s all a lot of guess work .. but the cliche lives on because there is some truth to it some of the time..

do you know how many homes I look at with decades of defered maintence? it&#39;s nutty they want 500k for a kitchen faucet that has been leaking for ten years

most people put in the absolulte minimum to upkeep then demand the highest dollar amount when selling

its crazy to me

[californiagrown]

do you know how many homes I look at with decades of defered maintence? it&#39;s nutty they want 500k for a kitchen faucet that has been leaking for ten years most people put in the absolulte minimum to upkeep then demand the highest dollar amount when selling its crazy to me

thats because in most high COLA, you are selling/buying the land more than the structure itself. In desireable areas land is expensive, and permitting new housing is expensive and time/soul consuming so a house in a good area with the cliche description of Having Good Bones is still extremely desireable. A well maintained house with fixtures/finishes from the 90&#39;s is gonna get gutted/renovated by folks buying it for 1mil anyways. So who really cares about a leaky faucet and water damage behind the fridge if the buyer is planning to redo the kitchen in the first 6months anyways? Same with a leaky shower, and decades old cracked caulking in the bathroom... that shits gonna get redone down to studs anyways. Showing Pride of Ownership is a descriptor that now screams outdated everything and sellers have overpriced it thinking buyers wont want to change a thing.

Also, if a person isnt DIY inclined, then its a tough pill to swallow to do maintenance if its minimum $500 for a tech/trade to just show up at your house, let alone actually having to do work. For many people, if they think that a remodel/renovation is coming in the next 5-10 years why would they bother maintaining that portion of the house if its gonna be super expensive.

[XXX-er]

Area dependant but here abouts I know people who were la-la-la-ing 15 yrs ago just renting, now they can not find anywhere to live and if they could they can not afford to pay the going price for rent

so They ask how can an LL justify those prices to which i replay they donot have to cuz the market is driving it

My long term tennant never complained aabout broken shit becuz they were used to the average LL not fixing anything so now I got her trained up and now she tells me right way

If he is gona be late with rent its not ok but its not the end of the the world so just tell me whats going on so now have her trained to pay on PAC direct deposit when her welfare check comes in not a bad person just bad luck and basicly the federal government is paying me the rent ever month

She is cutting the lawn/ tending flowers when I am loading the mtn bike into the truck

[BmillsSkier]

Anecdotal evidence post: I tend to lurk in this thread and the river of poo home reno thread as we have been evaluating in tandem either adding on to our house or just saying fuck it and moving. The builder estimates for our plans have doubled since January for a variety of reasons so we’re leaning towards moving. Been seeing a lot more signs in yards around the neighborhood and several articles touting how much more favorable the market is for buyers, cool we thought. Last week we put in a bid on a house we loved with no contingencies, a short inspection period and close and $60K over list as we knew there was one other offer on the table. We ended up losing out because the other buyer put $5K of signing bonus money in (not applicable to purchase price) which to me is insane. I thought we were past the market silliness, but I guess not. Wife is crushed and now is completely soured on building so I guess we sit and hope the accepted offer falls through or we find something else in the neighborhood we like. Le sigh.

[yeahman]

That sucks but who knows, may have been a blessing in disguise.

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[Foggy_Goggles]

Wait, "signing bonus money" as in an envelope of green at closing and that is written into the contract? Do they 1099 that? I wonder what the RE ethics pundits way about that.

CAG, you paint with a broad bush which makes you wrong a lot. Many buyers are financed to the hilt and are not able or willing to put money into a remodel. Challenge is that the RE industry can and frequently does opine about the construction costs of projects their potential buyer is considering.

And yes, many homes are train wrecks. I worked on a $1million remodel that may or may not be a construction defects suit. The day it got finaled (again) the basement hose bib leaked and ruined the brand new hardwoods. Hack homo work that the County passed.

Another brand new home I worked on, the septic has backed up three times because the sparky wired it wrong.

[californiagrown]

CAG, you paint with a broad bush which makes you wrong a lot. Many buyers are financed to the hilt and are not able or willing to put money into a remodel. Challenge is that the RE industry can and frequently does opine about the construction costs of projects their potential buyer is considering.

Yep, itd be tedious to talk about broad topics with a thin tip.

IME, living in HCOLA (Seattle and Bay Area), it is extremely common to renovate kitchens/bathrooms within a few years of move in on houses built 20+ years ago. In my neighborhood in particular (most houses built in late 70s/early 80s), over the last 5 years living here, it is extremely common to see a construction dumpster outside a house within the first year of purchase.