Is the stock market going to tank?

[liv2ski]

I am assuming rates are going to trend down, so for cash doing gt 4 percent cds or t-notes on 2-5 y terms. If they end up going up or need the cash, easy enough to close them early.

Inflation, rates going down? Cuz we will have stagflation? I am confused.

Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

[The AD]

The last three rate changes by the Fed have been decreases.

[dan_pdx]

I assume we'll have inflation and rate increases in the near to mid-term. We have a big chunk of our "cash" in laddered CDs: three CDs with six month terms started 2 months apart. When one matures, we buy another six month CD. A little fiddly but keeps the funds pretty accessible. We had been getting five and a half percent, but now more like four and a half percent

[4matic]

[emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji638][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]]What happens if BTC drops back to [emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]? Unpossible

What happens if there's a US Civil War? Unpossible

Could happen..

Point, as I’m sure you see, is that these two plays are so oversubscribed. I’m guessing NVDA becomes a long term investment in a lot of short term trader accounts

[Brock Landers]

TSLA has the same p/e as GME: fundamentals don't apply to either. Having said that, I think TSLA holders are less likely to HODL in the face of continued bad news than the GME crowd. It will take a lot to dent the optimism, but we might be seeing the start of that.

P\E is not fundamentals. Do not apply P/E to companies growing over 30% the last 5,10 years. It’s a different equation, different variables, different inputs. The E in P/E is bullshit for these types of Growth companies.

It could also be unwise to look for and latch onto any possible reason to short a stock (no one here is actually shorting anyway) because you don’t like the CEO.

[dan_pdx]

Not claiming that p/e = fundamentals, just a note that both are similarly overvalued in ways not supported by traditional criteria. TSLA isnt priced to grow 30 percent over five years, more like 500 percent, which is objectively nonsensical. Dont fanboy a stock just because you like the CEO. I bought TSLA at IPO and made something like 20x before I sold it, but the stock is now priced based on online sentiment about Musk, not business prospects, which is a tricky investment criteria

[singlesline]

I did have some money in a CD, but it seems like lately many saving accounts have higher interest so switched over. I'll probably switch back if the savings account interest rates continue to trend down.

I've also been looking at CDs lately. I'm looking at a pool of money that I might not actually get to keep...so not really willing to put it in the market right now. CD at least guarantees your rate over the term.

The CD issuers appear to believe rates will be dropping. Highest right now is on a 9 month CD and they drop off with longer terms.

[Name Redacted]

What rates are you seeing? I'm seeing 4.5%. That's only .5% over what I'm getting out of my savings account.

[bfree]

HYSAs are so 2018. Ok I'm partially kidding but money markets and SGOV have beaten them handily the past few years so I've mostly been out of them except for a modest amount for easy transfers.
4.4% HYSA is quite good in today's environment but who knows how long that will last.

[singlesline]

What rates are you seeing? I'm seeing 4.5%. That's only .5% over what I'm getting out of my savings account.

Yeah, 4.5% is sort of the max, most are lower. But it is locked in--and given the banks are showing an inverted yield curve, that means the banks expect rates to be lower in the future...which means the rates on the HYSA will drop too.

If it is money you don't want to touch anytime soon, locking it up for promised return might be worth it,.

[4matic]

Deleted. Emojis. Bearish..

BTC didn’t make a new low. Green shoots

[J. Barron DeJong]

They took over a very good economy and are crashing it at record pace, for no reason at all: “The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19.” https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

[dschane]

This thread is 18 years old and 758 pages long (at this point) and has seen one solid crash with the "Great Recession" and I'm not sure what to call the pandemic drop -- a rapid crash, blip, bounce? In any event, while I wouldn't bet the house on it or make Naked Shorts bold predictions, things are looking rocky and sentiment seems negative. Blowout year for bonds/debt?

[J. Barron DeJong]

They took over a very good economy and are crashing it at record pace, for no reason at all: “The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19.” https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

GDPNow is now forecasting -2.8% for the quarter.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

[Bunion 2020]

Not to worry, MAGA will scream FAKE NEWS and the FED is against TFG

[4matic]

Long term chart of ten year rolling over. If four doesn’t hold them much lower possible.

[Kevo]

"BIDENS MESS IS FINALLY CATCHING UP" "THEY ARE FINALLY REPORTING REAL NUMBERS THE BIDEN NUMBERS WERE FAKE" "THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU STOP THE WASTE AND FRAUD" "TRUMP WANTS TO CRASH THE ECONOMY TO HELP THE MIDDLE CLASS"

[shroom]

the market hates transparency!

[DougW]

funny US market is down a lot more than Canadian even with I think a misunderstanding that oil will be 25% so Canadian oil stock way down 5-8 % across board and that is big component of TSX. So auto parts are down the least as already baked into price.

[The SnowShow]

And of course Fox News has nothing on their website front page about the market tanking.

[LeeLau]

Sold my LMT. Reasoning.

- Doge going after defence. Incumbents going to lose margins and cost plus fat contracts.

- US going to isolate itself. LMT has fat pipeline but will be under export control. Will lose non US contracts. Will lose trust and will lose non US customers.

Some Euro defense stocks to replace it including an ETF EUAD.

Problem is the ETF is tiny. It's NAV is 3Mn. Putting in 100K puts you high on the cap table

[jono]

Any simple way to buy bonds from EU defense contractors?

[LeeLau]

Trying to post pic of model port. Forum fail. Csv instead.

Will screen for non-US as any US company now will have much less TAM and be subject to export controls

CCJ
EUAD
DRSHF
ONDS
RDW
SPAI
SPIR
UMAC
RCAT
ACHR
CYBQF
DPRO

[shroom]

I just want to stay rich

https://youtu.be/S7N7_gb-0iE?si=cpZcmthfbu7WGKt8

[Tips^Up]

<p>
The market will march higher. So far this term, Trump has not publicly gone after JPow and the Fed, begging for rate cuts. The Fed has a dual mandate: to stabilize prices and maximum employment. We&#39;re about to see the unemployment rate increase +.25% (combo of immigration crackdown and federal layoffs). This will force the Federal Reserve&#39;s hand to lower rates, spurring corporate spending, lowering mortgage rates (and subsequently increasing consumer spending). Don&#39;t fight the Fed - number goes up. (Scared boomers can ignore the following advice) Keep dollar cost averaging into low-cost index funds. It&#39;ll go up, it&#39;ll go down, but by the time you need it, it&#39;ll be higher than it is now.</p>