Is the stock market going to tank?

[dan_pdx]

One thing about a sovereign wealth fund: do we get equity when we bail out banks, airlines, etc. or are those loans? If we didn't do it already, might be worthwhile to start taking some equity at distressed prices.

[summit]

Billionaire and donor class can get their political pets to use public money to invest in their own companies.

And of course even more senators and representatives with the right contacts trading ahead of the wealth fund trades to profit, not to mention the leaders and employees inside the wealth fund and their buds.

Crystal ball: somehow Kushner is put in charge raking in 8 figure "management fees."

[liv2ski]

Elon's come comeuppance are coming soon.

Tesla Sales Plunge 63% in EU’s Second-Biggest EV Market

[summit]

Canada Tariffs are cancelled now...

One thing about a sovereign wealth fund: do we get equity when we bail out banks, airlines, etc. or are those loans? If we didn't do it already, might be worthwhile to start taking some equity at distressed prices.

Maybe they'll buy some Rivians...

[Bunion 2020]

And TRump will use the newly created SWF to buy Tik-Tok.

[The Nuclear Option]

I took a portion 10% out yesterday. Tempted to pull to 50% to cash for a correction.

Bubbles everywhere. Stocks esp tech, BSCoin, real estate, and now Trumps trade wars. Smells like 2000/2008 or maybe 1929 to me. Just waiting for a trigger. What’s the needle this time?

[skaredshtles]

I took a portion 10% out yesterday. Tempted to pull to 50% to cash for a correction. Bubbles everywhere. Stocks esp tech, BSCoin, real estate, and now Trumps trade wars. Smells like 2000/2008 or maybe 1929 to me. Just waiting for a trigger. What’s the needle this time?

Trying to time the market is a fool's errand.

[m2711c]

Fools need something to do too….

[The Nuclear Option]

Here’s the question - what makes you think that there is still upside?

[skaredshtles]

Has your risk profile changed? If so, please - exit away. Seems like a pretty decent time to exit the market if you're looking to get out permanently.

[The Nuclear Option]

So you think it’ll be Dow 60K end of ‘25?

What makes you confident in this economy?

[summit]

Moving to a slightly more conservative position, being positioned to grab opportunities, that's not terrible strategy eh? Downside is you miss the gains of being more aggressive.

[skaredshtles]

Listen - if you want to exit the market, please have my blessing. I just wanted to point out that trying to time the market is a fools errand and has been since time immemorial.

[Iowagriz]

WFC (Wells Fargo). Up 52% in the last 6 months, up 25% in the last 3. Consent Orders are getting cleared up, 9 of them cleared since 2019. I suspect the asset cap will get lifted under Trump, maybe this year. I see another 10% gain when that happens. Decent dividends as well.

Full disclosure: Former long-time employee with large chunk in WFC, but no longer have any insight to the inner workings. Just an avid reader of their news.

[SkiLyft]

Time in the market >> timing the market folks!

Granted I’m fifteen to twenty years from retirement so my calculus is different.

[The Nuclear Option]

What if you looked at it this way.? I wouldn’t be “timing the market,” but rather mirroring Buffet’s portfolio if I went to 30% cash.

BTW someone forgot to tell Buffet about this timing being a fool’s errand thingy.

[skaredshtles]

Have at it, man.

[CascadeLuke]

I keep seeing fund managers and big dog financial experts saying the days of passive investing where you set, forget, and moon - is over. That the future will be much more nuanced and complicated. And that this last historic bull run and anti-fundamental, momentum environment of animal spirits are lulling people into false complacency. Only time will tell.

[406]

30% cash doing 4-6% doesn't seem like a bad idea to me for someone >40 yo. That is about what I am.

I'm not increasing my percentage cash or selling any index funds...yet. FWIW, I went 90% cash mid Feb 2020, but can't imagine I will ever be that "smart" again.

[californiagrown]

Pulled a chunk from, or entirely liquidated my holdings in INTC, AVB, VGK, and SPY, and put 90% of it into BINC, with the other 10% into NVDA on a flier.

the plan is to let my runners run (VST, META, etc), and slowly transition a bunch of my more mediocre performers (that i see as very economy dependent) into "safer" high yield stocks and funds. I still have nice exposure to "hot stocks" if the irrational bull continues, but am trying to transition to kind of a more binary highrisk or lowrisk portfolio and remove the medium risk-medium reward stocks at this point (seems like they are now just high risk, medium reward with the idiocracy ruling).

I kind of just want to sit back for the next 12 months and get a better feel for the gongshow. Its been a crazy ride the last 5 years.

[AdironRider]

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One thing about a sovereign wealth fund: do we get equity when we bail out banks, airlines, etc. or are those loans? If we didn&#39;t do it already, might be worthwhile to start taking some equity at distressed prices.

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[Name Redacted]

Question for all yous guys doing your own investing: What kind of rate of return percentage are you guys getting over extended time periods? Anyone tracking that, like over 5 or 10 years and have accurate data on it?

[LeeLau]

Question for all yous guys doing your own investing: What kind of rate of return percentage are you guys getting over extended time periods? Anyone tracking that, like over 5 or 10 years and have accurate data on it?

8.2% averaged over 24 years on a covered call dividend portfolio. Caveat is the dividend yields were high as the port was started in 2008-9 when yields were high following financial meltdown. Caveat2 is the port uses hedging strategies so commissions can be between 0.2 to 0.8% YoY. Back of envelope is that port would return between 5.5-6% if normalized for less crazy timea

More on a Yolo portfolio but with much higher swings

[J. Barron DeJong]

As a benchmark, the S&P 500 Total Return Index has averages 8.98% annual returns over the past 24 years, if I did my math right.

[John_B]

Question for all yous guys doing your own investing: What kind of rate of return percentage are you guys getting over extended time periods? Anyone tracking that, like over 5 or 10 years and have accurate data on it?

I'm at 10.9% since the beginning of 2017 which for some reason is as far as I can look back in my Schwab portfolio. I have a small amount of Meta, Apple etc but the vast majority has been in a variety of low cost Schwab mutual funds with currently 6% in a money market fund.

That includes a period where I pulled out money as a down payment on a house but otherwise I sit back and let it ride. Minus a period of being a dumbass in 2020 and trying to time the COVID crash.

And for comparison the S&P over that period is 15.2%.