Is the stock market going to tank?

[Cono Este]

Interesting. Thanks for the vxx comment. Maybe easier than the Rydex Inverse fund I used back in 2007?

I’m a terrible investor, but I know risk very well.

Bonds have been getting hammered. That’s the big elephant in the room right now. Id hold out for a new low, and lock in 6-7%. I may do that with the big pimco bond fund. Or, take a shot like I am, and wait for a real sell off and buy that Schwab dividend fund.

But it womt sell off as hard.

[skaredshtles]

IMHO you should be allocated based on your needs and not based on what Goldman says.

Even if you did believe them, there is a 70% chance stocks don’t go down.

People have been predicting major corrections since 2020.

This. If you're trying to time the market, the chances of getting it correct are almost nil (just ask Naked Shorts). If you're doing it for risk-tolerance (or other) reasons, have at it.

[LeeLau]

Long DJT for inauguration pump. Short 47calls

[skaredshtles]

Long DJT for inauguration pump. Short 47calls

Up over 21% today? lol

[LeeLau]

Up over 21% today? lol

Quite the lemming effect from this morning

[4matic]

I don’t think this means much as the wealthiest boomers have generational wealth now and no need to sell anything:

“The share of equities held by people who are at or near retirement age fifty five + has climbed to about eighty percent up from sixty percent two decades ago, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data by Rosenberg Research. And Americans seventy and older now have an "astonishing" thirty percent share.”

[NBABUCKS1]

so we are all biding our time waiting for boomers to die so we can get their multiple massive houses and money.

[Kevo]

so we are all biding our time waiting for boomers to die so we can get their multiple massive houses and money.

The assisted living industrial complex will do an excellent job of extracting money from upper middle class boomers.

[byates1]

Yep^

[SkiLyft]

Speaking as an entrepreneur in the senior living space, big YUP!!


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[frorider]

Was recently reading somewhere about rich boomers dying & leaving a trust to take care of their pets, which has created in turn assisted living facilities for elderly pets at $6,000 / month.

Allegedly.

[Cono Este]

I sold more big cap tech, bought my jnj, pep, back. Added more VIX.

I don’t even like buying the jnj, pep, but I’m 50% cash in qualified accts. They are long term keepers.

At some point, we’re gonna need to hit the reset button.

The only original gamble I have 100% left of from 2 yrs ago is square/block,p and Tesla, I doubled down at 180. Blocks bitcoins appreciated 10 billion, it’s my only crypto play left and i should dump,it, but i bought that fucker way too soon. Tesla I’m giving to my grand children.

Perfectly happy making 5.25 in a mm, and if bonds see a new low, I’ll throw it into BOND long term.

[4matic]

I like BINC better than BOND for now. A lot less treasury with short duration and better yield. AAPL looks like another 10% lower. Not convinced that leads market lower though.

[liv2ski]

Deflation helps the working class?

Like during the Great Depression, or are we picturing some fantasy version of deflation that doesn’t come along with mass unemployment?

As I remember when we had the last good asset reprice around 2007 thru 2013, there wasn't massive unemployment except amongst realtors and lenders.

Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

[JimmyCarter]

Deepseek has NVDA down about 12% pre-market, other AI adjacent plays down 4-5%

[J. Barron DeJong]

liv2ski, unemployment went up to 9.9% during the Great Recession, from 4.4% prior to the recession. The biggest increase in unemployment since the Great Depression. This lead to poor wage growth for working class Americans post-Great Recession: https://www.clevelandfed.org/publica...reat-recession

[californiagrown]

hahaha holy shit. I have been holding VST since 2020/21 and just seen it explode in the last 18months. A couple months ago my wifes financial manager chided me about holding it once it had hit $160,and then dropped back to $140 as he thought is was way overplayed. I said "meh" let it run cause i feel like i am playing with house money at this point, but then I sold off about half my holding late last week at ~$192ish. Woke up this morning to an absolute freefall, and it being all the way back down at $140 (~25% drop overnight). So i just bought a bunch more, and put a sell limit for the same amount at 155 today. Im hoping for a deadcat bounce and an easy 1day profit, but worse case i still think its a good stock/company/utility long term and much more valuable than $140.


What are folks thoughts on REITs in the near/medium term? Im looking for a somewhat safer play with a dividend for the next couple years and i already own a chunk of O, and a chunk of CTRE (a senior living facility REIT). Seems like rent is stabilizing, wage growth is catching up, and folks are going defaulting on loans,and trump/DOGE may be deregulating many of the markets that REITs operate in... so maybe REITs are a good play?

[fastfred]

As I remember when we had the last good asset reprice around 2007 thru 2013, there wasn't massive unemployment except amongst realtors and lenders.

Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

dude I sat around and barely worked for 2 years in construction
unemployment was off the charts
shit was dismal for many many people

crazy how people forget how truely shitty it was
the boomers were all clutching there purses looking at all the value and pretend money the stock market had made them as it was ripped away

we need another 2007/2008 to really get people

[Kevo]

Deepseek has NVDA down about 12% pre-market, other AI adjacent plays down 4-5%

Deepseek is allegedly way more efficient than closed source models like ChatGPT, Gemini, etc.

It seems to me that makes the barrier to entry for companies needing AI tech lower (you no longer need as many GPUs for the same output), which should expand the market to the long tail and increase the size of the addressable market.

NVDA may sell less GPUs per customer, but could sell more GPUs in total since the size of the addressable market increased.

[JimmyCarter]

Market seems to be trying to figure out if it’s a CCP scam or a VC scam. I’d guess more a CCP scam, but people have been calling the VCs out a bit

[Kevo]

As I remember when we had the last good asset reprice around 2007 thru 2013, there wasn't massive unemployment except amongst realtors and lenders.

Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

That was a very difficult time to graduate college and start a career.

I do think that deflation can be good for an economy though. There is a major bias against it because the only times that there has been significant asset deflation in recent history has coincided with severe economic downturns.

"The Price of Time" (very thoroughly researched) and "The Price of Tomorrow" (more speculative) are books that both argue that deflation is healthy for the economy and that asset price deflation is good for the working class if it doesn't coincide with a severe downturn.

[J. Barron DeJong]

How does the book suggest deflation will come about without the severe downturn? Does it address the reason that the Fed and other central banks target positive inflation is to avoid the deflation, because deflation leads to people hoarding money (which is now going up in value without being invested) which leads to less spending, which leads to recession?

[liv2ski]

Ya, after I posted that comment, I thought you should of looked up the numbers, as I forget shit that doesn't matter to me very easily.
I sure would welcome another market correction like that. RE values tanked 40% to 50% in San Diego.
Shit, my youngest might be able to buy something if that happened.

[Kevo]

How does the book suggest deflation will come about without the severe downturn? Does it address the reason that the Fed and other central banks target positive inflation is to avoid the deflation, because deflation leads to people hoarding money (which is now going up in value without being invested) which leads to less spending, which leads to recession?

Working class ownership of assets goes up as wages and asset prices become more aligned.

Leveraged capital has to unwind, but the price elasticity of demand makes it so that labor gets to better participate in asset ownership at prices they can afford.

The idea that "people hoard money because they expect that assets will deflate forever" isn't necessarily true. People are still economic actors, and price elasticity of demand is still a driving economic factor during times of deflation. Lower prices necessarily attract more demand, which balances out falling prices.

"But labor won't have jobs in a deflationary environment"

Not a truism throughout economic history.

Perpetually backstopping asset owners (which policy makers have done for decades now) is a moral hazard that creates massive wealth disparities and gives asset owners significant leverage over labor. It also encourages more leverage, which leads to more risk in the long term.

[liv2ski]

Ya, after I posted that comment, I thought you should of looked up the numbers, as I forget shit that doesn't matter to me very easily.
I sure would welcome another market correction like that. RE values tanked 40% to 50% in San Diego.
Shit, my youngest might be able to buy something if that happened.