Is the stock market going to tank?

[californiagrown]

Anyone want to talk about their biggest winners and losers?

i got into investing during the early days of the pandemic, just like a lot of people. Not for the meme stocks, but because i figured that was a once in a generation entry-point, and i had some free time on my hands to actually do some research (back when SeekiingAlpha was free to give me ideas). So, i havent been doing it that long and am fairly risk averse so my 1 Etrade account is setup to be a bit of a YOLO account, and then i have another Etrade account that is their straightup retirement account using their standard forumla for my portfolio (this is where i dump monthly contributions into)... the YOLO account is where i will put in money from work bonuses, or other extra money that i have in my checking account at the end of each quarter. (and i also have a separate 401k and moneymarket savings account at ~4%).


Biggest Loser: Back in late 2020 i thought that AliBaba was going to become the next Amazon and take over the world. I thought that they captured the Chineese market and would therefore monopolize chineese goods and EVERYONE would have to run through them. So i put a large chunk into BABA at around $250 and rode it all the way down to ~$80 before finally giving up hope a couple years later. just prior to that i had put a couple hundred bucks into Luckin Coffee (the chineese starbucks) and had it go bankrupt and get delisted on my 2 months after my purchase haha. Lesson learned that Chineese companies do not operate under the same rules and are subject to the whims of the politburo. Up until that point, everything i had ever bought had been a big winner because of when i started investing (04/20) so it was also a wakeup call that the market wasnt a free moneymaking machine.

Biggest Winner: Back in late 2020 i also purchased a bunch of Vistra Energy stock. I did it based on an article in SA talking about its financials, strong outlook in traditional energy, but also it was one of the biggest investors/innovators in large utility scale batteries for storing and distributing renewable energy. I thought it was really cool they were on the cutting edge of that aspect of the energy sector and was hoping that would make them extremely valuable. And then a few months later that big ice/cold storm in texas happened and crashed the stock like 20% overnight. I figured that my original reason for liking the stock was still valid and the stock was waaay cheaper now, so i more than doubled down and bought an irresponsibly large amount more (at least irresponsible for how big my portfolio was at the time). Well, ive sold some off, and bought some more since, but im still sitting on a cost basis of $22 and the stock is at ~$140 having gone as high as $168 recently.

[MultiVerse]

FWIW, folks here advised against your BABA purchase. And yeah, the overall energy sector was a big winner post-pandemic

[LeeLau]

This year? In the Yolo account

Biggest winner SOUN. Pure play voice AI. Bought at 3s Sold at 22.70

Biggest loser FRCB. Bank I thought would get bailed out last year. Bought at 18s. Sold at 0.0002.

Took the FRCB loss to partially offset capital gains in SOUN.

[MultiVerse]

Biggest 24' winner was 7X on Palladyne AI corp (PDYN). Biggest loser was a 'safer' high yield derivative bond ETF

[californiagrown]

FWIW, folks here advised against your BABA purchase.

Yeah, some lessons are best learned the hardway haha. I lost a lot of % on that, but not too much actual $.

Biggest winner SOUN. Pure play voice AI. Bought at 3s Sold at 22.70

Biggest 24' winner was 7X on Palladyne AI corp (PDYN).

Where do you guys get your ideas for some of these high risk/reward stocks? Just your existing network, reddit, blogs?

[MultiVerse]

I just read a lot. Not necessarily having anything to do with investing per se, just making connections. BABA, for example, might be one of the most undervalued stocks in history but if a person was aware of what Xi was doing to persecute Jack Ma and other successful entrepreneurs in China's tech sector you had advanced warning well before China's economy (un)officially tanked

[4matic]

MTN getting crushed. Patrol strike in Utah pissed off the Wall Street jongs vacationing

[gravitylover]

Best is SOFI, worst is EVGO. Both were bought before 2024 though.

[4matic]

Berkshire beat SPY last year with twenty-eight percent cash.

[LeeLau]

Yeah, some lessons are best learned the hardway haha. I lost a lot of % on that, but not too much actual $.





Where do you guys get your ideas for some of these high risk/reward stocks? Just your existing network, reddit, blogs?

I've worked with clients in AI for 8 years now since the days of neural networks and machine-learning. It's been a "this time it's different" tech ie all hat and no cattle for the better part of 4 decades so was annoyed to miss the NVDA chip hype. I started screening and reading up on pure play small cap AI focused stocks. Almost all the better plays were private or large cap or stock scam hype.

SOUN was pretty bad financials wise (I learned how to speed read SEC filings a while back) but was legitimate and had growth potential. So I took a flyer via stock and calls. It meme'ed, I sold $ 20 covered calls, they were called away and I took the profit

[gravitylover]

Best is SOFI, worst is EVGO. Both were bought before 2024 though.

Well, maybe not as good on SOFI as a few days ago ...

[byates1]

https://youtube.com/shorts/TbJeaKM8C...7n2Byfo2O0IR07

[LeeLau]

https://youtube.com/shorts/TbJeaKM8C...7n2Byfo2O0IR07

The TGR is the dumb money. Look at the Park City Patrollers strike thread. The number of people reciting their dogma that MTN is a real estate company. Dumbbbbbb....can't even read quarterlies

[LeeLau]

Continuing in the same vein as the stock market being predatory; with dumb DeJong money being food for others, I am short QSI.

There has been a recent quantum computing bubbled hyped by reddit, tiktok and stocktwit investors re Google's quantum chipset and speculation that quantum computing can crack crypto. Leaving aside the scientific stupidity of this; QSI develops hardware/software for protein testing. QSI is tiny and openly discloses in website, product docs and filings that they have zero to do with quantum computing.

Dumb investor chatter has hyped them as being in quantum computing; from the mid 1st to mid 5s with just enough option volume to short and hedge.

Today NVDA's CEO was asked about quantum computing and said that it was "30 years" away. QSI tanks. Thank you dumb money

[J. Barron DeJong]

Continuing in the same vein as the stock market being predatory; with dumb DeJong money being food for others, I am short QSI.

There has been a recent quantum computing bubbled hyped by reddit, tiktok and stocktwit investors re Google's quantum chipset and speculation that quantum computing can crack crypto. Leaving aside the scientific stupidity of this; QSI develops hardware/software for protein testing. QSI is tiny and openly discloses in website, product docs and filings that they have zero to do with quantum computing.

Dumb investor chatter has hyped them as being in quantum computing; from the mid 1st to mid 5s with just enough option volume to short and hedge.

Today NVDA's CEO was asked about quantum computing and said that it was "30 years" away. QSI tanks. Thank you dumb money

Congratulations. But I’m not sure why I should care about how it affected my holdings.

It’s still up like 275% in the past 6 months. Were you long the past six months and just shorted it yesterday?

Today’s move looks like it would have moved my US stock holdings down about 0.00012%. As someone whose career is not trading, why should I care about that?

I’d suggest it would be dumb of me to focus on short term moves like that since I’m not able to spend the time necessary to become (and stay) a talented trader (if I even could).

I’d also say it would be dumb of me to not have my retirement savings invested in stocks.

[4matic]

Five months ago $SPX was 5200 and rates were considerably lower.

[liv2ski]

Goldman thinks there is a 30% chance of a tank this year. I asked my FA to move me way more conservative.

[NBABUCKS1]

Goldman thinks there is a 30% chance of a tank this year. I asked my FA to move me way more conservative.

never sell and none of this matters

[Cono Este]

Goldman thinks there is a 30% chance of a tank this year. I asked my FA to move me way more conservative.

Don’t buy their shitty structured products,


I’m 50% cash in qualified accounts, since the summer time. Long vix, just chillin.

[skaredshtles]

Goldman thinks there is a 30% chance of a tank this year. I asked my FA to move me way more conservative.

Maybe NakedShorts will *finally* be right!

[liv2ski]

never sell and none of this matters

Funny, but if you do plan on selling at some point prices matter.

[liv2ski]

I’m 50% cash in qualified accounts, since the summer time. Long vix, just chillin.

Interesting. Thanks for the vxx comment. Maybe easier than the Rydex Inverse fund I used back in 2007?

[Kevo]

IMHO you should be allocated based on your needs and not based on what Goldman says.

Even if you did believe them, there is a 70% chance stocks don’t go down.

People have been predicting major corrections since 2020.

[4matic]

[emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]ski;[emoji[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]]Goldman thinks there is a [emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]]]% chance of a tank this year. I asked my FA to move me way more conservative.

There’s a fifteen to [emoji638][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]% chance every year so it’s not much of a stretch.

[4matic]

The chance of a ten percent correction every year is like 100%.