Real Estate Crash thread

[summit]

That is an issue we discussed previously. Dense housing needs parking somewhere. In my hood they go underground.

NO PEASANT, NO CAR FOR YOU. RIDE THAT BUS that stops a whopping 6ft from your front door threshold every 20 mintues at your 3% appreciation capped "house" that you "own" with an 8% mortgage tied to your continued employment within a specific boundary (like a peasant on a lord's manor) with no yard and a window that looks into your neighbor's bathroom 2ft away because 12inch setbacks support padding developer pockets! At least the bus line gets you to your office manager job within your lord's manor, paid for by a tax on the peasants, which also funds your... AFFORDABLE HOUSING FOR ALL!

[liv2ski]

Sigh, and this is why I intend to leave as much as possible to the kids and grand daughter. Life has become to fucking expensive.

[4matic]

Apartments that were $1500-$2000 just 18 months ago are $944 in Austin, TX.

[4matic]

Sigh, and this is why I intend to leave as much as possible to the kids and grand daughter. Life has become to fucking expensive.

There’s the conundrum. So much legacy wealth tied up in inflated assets. The average boomer has $200k in savings but has 1.5 houses worth *x what they paid. It’s an illusion. A significant decline in asset prices will have boomers curled up in a ball throwing up.

3 different boomers brought up their Tesla stock to me. Too many have concentrated wealth in a narrow asset band.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/baby-boom...201602997.html

[4matic]

Emoji hell delete

[RootSkier]

[liv2ski]

There’s the conundrum. So much legacy wealth tied up in inflated assets. The average boomer has $200k in savings but has 1.5 houses worth *x what they paid. It’s an illusion. A significant decline in asset prices will have boomers curled up in a ball throwing up.

3 different boomers brought up their Tesla stock to me. Too many have concentrated wealth in a narrow asset band.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/baby-boom...201602997.html

4matic, if you own something that you have no intent in selling, it's price doesn't matter. I would welcome a substantial decrease in property values, but I don't see a catalyst yet.
Now having your speculative stock portfolio crater would be a different situation as you do plan to sell at some point.

[summit]

Justice Department sues 6 corporate megalandlords rental corps for collusion to fix prices
https://apnews.com/article/algorithm...dab5c84088ff53
One of the 6 has already rolled over on the other 5! Corporate prisoner's dilemma!

[skaredshtles]

<snip>
Now having your speculative stock portfolio crater would be a different situation as you do plan to sell at some point.

That's the thing - there are a LOT of people that have their retirement "savings" invested in the stock market. In fact, I'd wager a whole *SHITLOAD* of those people don't even view it as speculative, even though it is.

Those asset prices crater, and I GUARANTEE there are going to be a boatload of Boomers curled up in a ball throwing up.

[skaredshtles]

Justice Department sues 6 corporate megalandlords rental corps for collusion to fix prices
https://apnews.com/article/algorithm...dab5c84088ff53
One of the 6 has already rolled over on the other 5! Corporate prisoner's dilemma!

[Toadman]

That's the thing - there are a LOT of people that have their retirement "savings" invested in the stock market. In fact, I'd wager a whole *SHITLOAD* of those people don't even view it as speculative, even though it is.

Those asset prices crater, and I GUARANTEE there are going to be a boatload of Boomers curled up in a ball throwing up.

Yes, this would cause a massive projectile vomiting scenario that would lead to a recession in the US and the rest of the world. The fetal position would be assumed after the vomiting as the ulcers start to set in.

[4matic]

The $SPX at 4500 would still be a 10% annualized gain from pre pandemic 2020

[skaredshtles]

Yes, this would cause a massive projectile vomiting scenario that would lead to a recession in the US and the rest of the world. The fetal position would be assumed after the vomiting as the ulcers start to set in.

And to be clear - probably few of us would not feel the hit of a world-wide recession.

Except, of course, the rich. Because they were likely told ahead of time of the impending implosion and would have made arrangements.

[406]

Don't worry, the huge crash that takes 10+ years to recover from will happen right after the boomers are dead/cashed out and just cause pain for us GenX'ers.

[rideit]

I would imagine that there will be more than a few tire-kickers here from the swanky parts of burned-out L.A. in the next few months.

[liv2ski]

That's the thing - there are a LOT of people that have their retirement "savings" invested in the stock market. In fact, I'd wager a whole *SHITLOAD* of those people don't even view it as speculative, even though it is.

Those asset prices crater, and I GUARANTEE there are going to be a boatload of Boomers curled up in a ball throwing up.

Shit, you just need to go back to the 2008? Crash and read 4matics posts. Dude had a full on melt down.

[dan_pdx]

Aren't you supposed to shift your allocation towards bonds in retirement for exactly that reason?

[skaredshtles]

Aren't you supposed to shift your allocation towards bonds in retirement for exactly that reason?

[neckdeep]

I would imagine that there will be more than a few tire-kickers here from the swanky parts of burned-out L.A. in the next few months.

Tell them you can run but you can't hide. It's just trading Santa Ana winds for late summer dry thunderstorms. New fact of life: the more mountain home you own, the more some insurance company owns you. This is going to turn into a price appreciation gobbling machine in ski towns when fire insurance premiums shoot up to 3% of home value for houses in the wildland interface. I mean, shit, the Rockies gets high winds so frequently we don't even bother to come up with pet names for them.

[406]

^^^yeah, I would say just about any town in the west with trees/significant vegetation is at equal risk or will be soon. A lot of fuel load in lands surrounding towns, that could easily spread into neighborhoods if wind is blow the wrong way.

Will be interesting if the few remaining home insurance companies in CA pull out. Home prices might really drop when we can't get home insurance or are all on the state version.

[rideit]

West, East, South, North.
https://apps.npr.org/us-wildfires-im...limate-change/

[4matic]

Shit, you just need to go back to the 2008? Crash and read 4matics posts. Dude had a full on melt down.

You mean when I bought Berkshire on margin and went 150% long equity? Changed my life for sure.

And just for the record. I own zero equities now. I’m 100% bonds with a blended yield of 8%. Duration less than 5y:

BINC 35%
HYS 30%
PDI 30%
PAXS 5%.

I would probably buy some equity with SPX in the 4K range. But with yields where they are compared to stock valuations I prefer bonds.

[east or bust]

Tell them you can run but you can't hide. It's just trading Santa Ana winds for late summer dry thunderstorms. New fact of life: the more mountain home you own, the more some insurance company owns you. This is going to turn into a price appreciation gobbling machine in ski towns when fire insurance premiums shoot up to 3% of home value for houses in the wildland interface. I mean, shit, the Rockies gets high winds so frequently we don't even bother to come up with pet names for them.

I was wondering about this recently. It sounds like you might already know that Teton County expanded its WUI to include all private lands within the county.

Fire Marshall says it won’t impact premiums but I have a hard time believing that.

[whipski]

A buddy is building a concrete block home with metal framing and roof for a retirement home no plans to insure it

[NBABUCKS1]

probably not the worst idea, outside of an earthquake, good luck destroying that home.

The place where I built my tiny home / will hopefully build a real home burned in 2018 - figure I'm good for a solid 20-30 years.