Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[MakersTeleMark]

Here, I drew a picture.

Attachment 509435

ETA: yes, simplified to not talk about ever changing flows from individual wallets and whatnot.

I highly suggest you start thinking outside of the box. There is no rationalizing with you as you fundamentally do not understand the asset.

[J. Barron DeJong]

I highly suggest you start thinking outside of the box. There is no rationalizing with you as you fundamentally do not understand the asset.

If miners pull out real money for coins they earned not bought, then where is the money coming from that allows the other red outflow to exceed the green inflow? Where is the inflow I’m missing?

[stalefish3169]

If miners pull out real money for coins they earned not bought, then where is the money coming from that allows the other red outflow to exceed the green inflow? Where is the inflow I’m missing?

Is the red outlfow in the room with us right now?

[MakersTeleMark]

If we put a shitton of more complex BTC and lightning network transactions aside, and just deal with spot, do you fail to understand that for every seller, there must be a buyer, and that is how market books work, and markets in general, and that is how the price is set?

Here are some more colors for you to understand. I see you like colors. Like a 5 year old.

https://www.coinglass.com/merge/BTC-USD

[J. Barron DeJong]

If we put a shitton of more complex BTC and lightning network transactions aside, and just deal with spot, do you fail to understand that for every seller, there must be a buyer, and that is how market books work, and markets in general, and that is how the price is set?

No, I do not fail to understand that.

If there’s more money buying than selling the spot price goes up. If there’s more money selling than buying the spot price goes down.

But go on…

[J. Barron DeJong]

I can very easily explain where the money comes from to make all stockholders come out ahead, to make all bond holders come out ahead, to all investors in a private business come out ahead, for a bank borrowing short and lending long to come out ahead.

If you can’t explain where the money is coming from for all bitcoin buyers to come out ahead, maybe it’s because that money doesn’t exist.

[MakersTeleMark]

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/c...ses-in-profit/

I've hit maximum facepalm. I'm sorry I can't help you understand just about anything about this other than the postage stamp example.

[J. Barron DeJong]

If we put a shitton of more complex BTC and lightning network transactions aside, and just deal with spot, do you fail to understand that for every seller, there must be a buyer, and that is how market books work, and markets in general, and that is how the price is set?

Here are some more colors for you to understand. I see you like colors. Like a 5 year old.

https://www.coinglass.com/merge/BTC-USD

Yes, if you convince someone to buy your Bitcoin for more than you paid, you’ve come out ahead. Where does that leave the guy who just bought it? Hmm…

[J. Barron DeJong]

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/c...ses-in-profit/

I've hit maximum facepalm. I'm sorry I can't help you understand just about anything about this other than the postage stamp example.

It’s only ‘profit’ on paper. My point is that the money isn’t there for everyone to cash out at the current price if they wanted to. It is literally impossible. And for everyone who does cash out at a profit, it mathematically means that other Bitcoin buyers have to suffer further loses sooner or later.

[MakersTeleMark]

Yes, if you convince someone to buy your Bitcoin for more than you paid, you’ve come out ahead. Where does that leave the guy who just bought it? Hmm…

In the same position as if he holds his amazon stock and sells it when it goes higher than his cost basis.

[J. Barron DeJong]

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/c...ses-in-profit/

I've hit maximum facepalm. I'm sorry I can't help you understand just about anything about this other than the postage stamp example.

Help me understand where the money for profits comes from other than from other bitcoin buyers. That’s how you could help.

But you can’t do it, because there is no other money. And if there is no other money, then you’ve just made your profits by taking it away from the other bitcoin buyers. And that’s how the miners make their money too.

[J. Barron DeJong]

In the same position as if he holds his amazon stock and sells it when it goes higher than his cost basis.

But why does Amazon stock go up? Why was it $0.50 in 2001 and $228 now?

Hint:

[MakersTeleMark]

Help me understand where the money for profits comes from other than from other bitcoin buyers. That’s how you could help.

But you can’t do it, because there is no other money. And if there is no other money, then you’ve just made your profits by taking it away from the other bitcoin buyers. And that’s how the miners make their money too.

First of all, miners make their money by investing a significant amount of money into energy out of their pockets which gets converted to a block reward + transaction fees. Just like any other asset, you make your money by selling to a buyer at a profit. BTC is no different than Tesla in that regard. This of course is completely massively ignoring the futures market.

[MakersTeleMark]

BTC goes up because it is verifiable, scarce, immutable, and decentralized. That is its core value. It's a tenant, or a utility, not a good or a service. You need to think outside of what you may think is "tangible" and focus on the technological ideology which is so powerful. Just like the internet bred the value of Amazon and thousands of other firms.

Just go buy some fartcoin and sell it at the peak.

[J. Barron DeJong]

BTC goes up because it is verifiable, scarce, immutable, and decentralized. That is it's core value. It's a tenant, not a good or a service. You need to think outside of what you may think is "tangible" and focus on the technological ideology which is so powerful. Just like the internet.

I thought it went up when there was more money wanting to buy Bitcoin than wanting to exit Bitcoin, but maybe it’s just the ephemeral values after all.

[MakersTeleMark]

It’s only ‘profit’ on paper. My point is that the money isn’t there for everyone to cash out at the current price if they wanted to. It is literally impossible. And for everyone who does cash out at a profit, it mathematically means that other Bitcoin buyers have to suffer further loses sooner or later.

Google network effects.

[MakersTeleMark]

I thought it went up when there was more money wanting to buy Bitcoin than wanting to exit Bitcoin, but maybe it’s just the ephemeral values after all.

You are completely dismissing the utility of BTC.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Have you tried to understand the MVRV metric that shera provided?

Yesterday it was at 2.385, with a Bitcoin price of $98,319.

That means the average coin was purchased for $$41,224. That’s the actual reflection of the money inside the black box. What percentage of those wallets are positive when the price is $41k instead of $98k?

Unless, of course, you can tell me where money is entering the Bitcoin network other than the buyers.

It’s pure Greater Fool, as was recently pointed out once again.

[J. Barron DeJong]

You are completely dismissing the utility of BTC.

Utility is usually something you are willing to pay for, not expect to profit from. You still need a revenue source if you want to have profits!

[MakersTeleMark]

Have you tried to understand the MVRV metric that shera provided?

Yesterday it was at 2.385, with a Bitcoin price of $98,319.

That means the average coin was purchased for $$41,224. That’s the actual reflection of the money inside the black box. What percentage of those wallets are positive when the price is $41k instead of $98k?

Unless, of course, you can tell me where money is entering the Bitcoin network other than the buyers.

It’s pure Greater Fool, as was recently pointed out once again.

I guess you don't place value on adoption, or any of the many other principles I've pointed out. That's fine, you can ignore them, but there are a half of billion people and 2 trillion dollars in market cap that hold the opposite view.

I'm also curious what value you place on hedging monetary debasement and inflation. Is that worth anything to you?

Money doesn't enter the bitcoin network. Capital comes and goes into the bitcoin market based upon supply, demand, and a lot of other factors. Big distinction.

I think what it comes down to is that you are unwilling to attribute economic value on something that is not a good or a service, and thus if there is no value, then you can't profit from it. Your concept of what is economically valuable, or capable of creating additional capital, is false, as proven by the market itself, not by the price of BTC.

[jono]

Quick question just to clarify, MTM: Are you saying deJong is right that there are no other inflows of cash besides buyers of BTC, but that that fact should not matter?

It sounds like you are ready to move on to defining value or future price predictions etc in other ways, I just want to make sure I'm not misinterpreting your arguments if that's not your intention. Thanks!

[Vt-Freeheel]

Probably nothing


why-bitcoin-price-is-dropping-suddenly-after-recovery-to-102k/

[MakersTeleMark]

Quick question just to clarify, MTM: Are you saying deJong is right that there are no other inflows of cash besides buyers of BTC, but that that fact should not matter?

It sounds like you are ready to move on to defining value or future price predictions etc in other ways, I just want to make sure I'm not misinterpreting your arguments if that's not your intention. Thanks!

There are a shitton of inflows of cash. I'm sorry if that wasn't clear to you. Indeed, new BTC gets mined every ten minutes.

[stalefish3169]

Probably nothing


why-bitcoin-price-is-dropping-suddenly-after-recovery-to-102k/

Thank god you posted. Just sold all my Bitcoins based on your analysis.

[Vt-Freeheel]

Thank god you posted. Just sold all my Bitcoins based on your analysis.

Thanks for Koming back, you've brought the Klown Komedy level up to its previous high.