PARK CITY (and all) SKI PATROLLERS DESERVE MORE.

[BobMc]

I hope all the PC refugees were enthused on the Cottonwoods driving experience and don’t return. My honest opinion? Book a vacation at a shitty resort and don’t be surprised it sucked. I’m really kinda surprised to hear folks here had their vacations ruined. Seriously, anyone that has read this board for a while should’ve realized a long time ago Park City sucks.

[XavierD]

MTN isn’t a ski company. They’re a hotel/hospitality company that owns some ski resorts.

Eh, they’re a ski area company that gets some hotel revenues. Lodging is 2-3% of mountain revenues

[Woolly the Mammoth]

MTN is actually a real estate company that owns things like ski areas and golf courses to help them sell real estate.

[tang]

This investor preso is a pretty interesting flip through…

https://investors.vailresorts.com/st...6-2d33ca11354d

Their prices have outpaced inflation
Subscription model
75% of lift revenues from pre season passes
25% of total revenue from rentals, lessons and dining
Ebitda (profits) was up year over year despite much lower snowfall
Making a push on gear rentals - average customers skis like 5 days per year but over 1/2 own their gear
Alotta interesting nuggets
Lots o’ slides

[XavierD]

MTN is actually a real estate company that owns things like ski areas and golf courses to help them sell real estate.

Huh? Real estate is <1% of earnings.

[Kevo]

Old goat has it wrong. XavierD has it right.

MTN doesn't compete with other ski areas. MTN competes with activities other than sliding on snow. Activities like gaming, hockey, soccer.

MTN has a high PE ratio and is in the business of delivering a discretionary recreational product to customers. When seasons passes renewals drops (as they have over the past 2 years) that business model of a big cash float up front looks quite vulnerable

I tend to agree with this take.

I also wonder how long the business model can sustain itself.

A destination ski vacation at an epic and icon resort is a pretty terrible product. You spend $10k or $15k to take your family to Breckenridge or Steamboat or Utah or Tahoe for a week and spend hours and hours everyday standing in lines and dealing with crowds. Everything has to be on a schedule to deal with crowds- when do you head to the hill? Will there be parking? How long will you be stuck in whatever lift line- will you make it to ski school in time to pick up your kid? Same considerations for lunch and dinner and any other activities.

You could take the entire family to the South Pacific or Europe or Asia and spend less money and have a way better time. When are people going to realize that they aren’t having fun in these epic and icon towns?

Sadly there are very few alternatives for skiing medium or large acreage resorts in North America where you won’t get screwed by epic and icon crowds.

[old goat]

Why do you think the stock price will be up in a year? Seriously. There is no guarantee sales or margin will go up. They are fucking this up and pissing customers off, when they report a serious drop in pass renewals the stock will likely go down. Fuck, it’s likely going to go down in anticipation of lower returning sales.
Also, there are restrictions on executives selling and buying stock and they are required to disclose the sale/purchase in a scheduled manner. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MTN/...-transactions/

Vail clearly does compete on price and value. It’s fucking luxury recreation; if they price it past perceived value people won’t buy it. I’m guessing a lot of families who are split on skiing vs beach for Christmas vacation will be choosing Cabo next year.

Do you really think the executives are just hanging out in Denver right now laughing and smoking cigars while counting their cash?

Re the stock price--it's been coming down for two years, it's currently above what it was in August, there's obviously a problem with the company or the industry as a whole that is far more significant than this strike. I don't know why MTN's stock price has been dropping and I don't really care. I don't see the strike having a long term effect on the stock price because it's the kind of event that drops stock prices and then is forgotten by summer. As far as the execs selling their stock, that was sarcasm. The execs will come out okay because they always do--that's how the system is rigged.

As far as competing--I don't believe that most people who plan ski vacations or buy ski passes consider skiing interchangeable with scuba diving or drinking mai tais on the beach. Skiing is a sport that people tend to be passionate about--even the folks who only get to do it a week a year. The industry may be having it's problems but nobody who was at Sugar Bowl Saturday--a one foot of fresh sunny day--would say that people are leaving the sport. So I stand by that--Ikon and Epic don't compete on price. People who buy one or the other choose for other reasons.

Meanwhile pass prices keep rising because the companies are still trying to find out what the market will bear and where is the point where the loss of pass buyers more than offsets the increased revenue from higher prices. Frankly the patrollers strike is more likely to be an excuse to raise prices more rather than a reason to.

Personally I would never invest in the ski business because climate change.

[Cono Este]

Old goat has it wrong. XavierD has it right.

MTN doesn't compete with other ski areas. MTN competes with activities other than sliding on snow. Activities like gaming, hockey, soccer.

MTN has a high PE ratio and is in the business of delivering a discretionary recreational product to customers. When seasons passes renewals drops (as they have over the past 2 years) that business model of a big cash float up front looks quite vulnerable

This is logical, but to add to it.

We’re replaceable. They don’t need our $$$. I’ve hit 5 epic resorts the last month. It’s a real mix of rich people. I’m particularly aware meeting the Latins. A mkt that’s didn’t exists 25 yrs ago.

Id love to see a more elaborate break down of revenue. We’re are like nothing I bet. They don’t give a fuck.

I skied Park City yesterday, I can’t even call it skiing in my opinion. Im sure a local can have a nice 24” Utah day, but where wouldn’t you. The terrain is not my cup of tea.

[Shredhead]

Rich Mexicans/Brazilians have been a significant market for 50 years.
It's just Vail had a lock on them for a long time. They never went anywhere else, until the Epic Pass.

[skiJ]

Old goat has it wrong. XavierD has it right.

MTN doesn't compete with other ski areas. MTN competes with activities other than sliding on snow. Activities like gaming, hockey, soccer.

MTN has a high PE ratio and is in the business of delivering a discretionary recreational product to customers. When seasons passes renewals drops (as they have over the past 2 years) that business model of a big cash float up front looks quite vulnerable

This is logical, but to add to it.

We’re replaceable. They don’t need our $$$. I’ve hit 5 epic resorts the last month. It’s a real mix of rich people. I’m particularly aware meeting the Latins. A mkt that’s didn’t exists 25 yrs ago.

Id love to see a more elaborate break down of revenue. We’re are like nothing I bet. They don’t give a fuck.

I skied Park City yesterday, I can’t even call it skiing in my opinion. Im sure a local can have a nice 24” Utah day, but where wouldn’t you. The terrain is not my cup of tea.

Thank you - Ii appreciate these posts ^^

in other 'news((?)' , PCMPSPA and PCMRs are scheduled to return to mediation / medicated-negotiations today.

I hope you have a good week --

skiJ

[skiJ]

mediated - negotiations.

I love Autocorrect.

[AdironRider]

I tend to agree with this take.

I also wonder how long the business model can sustain itself.

A destination ski vacation at an epic and icon resort is a pretty terrible product. You spend $10k or $15k to take your family to Breckenridge or Steamboat or Utah or Tahoe for a week and spend hours and hours everyday standing in lines and dealing with crowds. Everything has to be on a schedule to deal with crowds- when do you head to the hill? Will there be parking? How long will you be stuck in whatever lift line- will you make it to ski school in time to pick up your kid? Same considerations for lunch and dinner and any other activities.

You could take the entire family to the South Pacific or Europe or Asia and spend less money and have a way better time. When are people going to realize that they aren’t having fun in these epic and icon towns?

Sadly there are very few alternatives for skiing medium or large acreage resorts in North America where you won’t get screwed by epic and icon crowds.

The Vail model is incredibly more sustainable than the prior setup of praying it snowed and then selling day tickets. That prior setup led to literally hundreds of areas closing up shop in the 70s and 80s when the snow didn't come but the bills still did.

ASC really invented the pass product conceptually, but they were much more leveraged in real estate to pay off their acquisitions. After their collapse in the early 00s Vail took the season pass concept and ran with it and dumped the real estate leverage side as ski condos proved to be just as volatile as the weather financially.

[bamboocoreONLY]

Rich Mexicans/Brazilians have been a significant market for 50 years.
It's just Vail had a lock on them for a long time. They never went anywhere else, until the Epic Pass.

They're a force in Breck lately, even in the summer. The good thing is they hardly ski, just walk around town and spend money so I welcome it.

[Bunion 2020]

A destination ski vacation at an epic and icon resort is a pretty terrible product. You spend $10k or $15k to take your family to Breckenridge or Steamboat or Utah or Tahoe for a week and spend hours and hours everyday standing in lines and dealing with crowds. Everything has to be on a schedule to deal with crowds- when do you head to the hill? Will there be parking? How long will you be stuck in whatever lift line- will you make it to ski school in time to pick up your kid? Same considerations for lunch and dinner and any other activities.

From my viewpoint, it looks exhausting.

I skied Park City yesterday, I can’t even call it skiing in my opinion. Im sure a local can have a nice 24” Utah day, but where wouldn’t you. The terrain is not my cup of tea.

Skis a huge ski area on a holiday weekend during a labor dispute that has totally disrupted mountain operations and left a lot of the good terrain shuttered and has this for a comment. Priceless.

Historical data reveals that with a 42? average snow pack for last week, 34 lifts and 177 trails (50% of the mountain) should have been planned to open, compared to just 18% actually available.

[NBABUCKS1]

Monday after holiday break:



The rest of ikon resorts in Utah (which are the comparable resorts) are >90% open.

[FigureELEVEN11]

From my understanding and word of month within the industry Alterra is much better than Vail. Alterra is much more inclined to leave existing management and emps in place. Which in the case of mt flatchelor sounds like it might not be ideal. However Vail is guaranteed to run a mountain according to their front range corporate bs and there’s zero chance of that being a positive development. Of all the towns in Oregon, Bend is completely unrecognizable to me compared to 20 years ago these days, it’s basically an outdoor magazine advertisement. Which must be highly enticing for either of the big 2. My guess is that Alterra buys it as there’s no real estate at the base of the mountain which is Vails number one priority

There should be enough wealthy folks in Bend that can purchase it similar to how Killington was just sold to locals.

Only problem is that billionaires in general don't have any interest in owning ski resorts and dealing with the hassle. Fail's failure in PC of course won't make anyone want to get into the business I'm sure the local courts will be slammed for the next few years dealing with all the lawsuits that are coming.


Do any PC locals know what those courts are like and if you can sue and actually get a judgement. I was told in Jackson WY once don't ever go to that hospital for surgery or anything because you simply can't sue there they can kill you and egregiously fuck up and will never be held liable.

[Cono Este]

Rich Mexicans/Brazilians have been a significant market for 50 years.
It's just Vail had a lock on them for a long time. They never went anywhere else, until the Epic Pass.

Dude, don’t tell me that. I grew up with those uber rich Brazilians, Chileans etc. it’s the AMOUNT of people that moved up in class since them, it’s a tremendous number, from all developing nations.

Anywhere in the world, the demographics of tourism has changed. China etc. didn’t exist 40 yrs ago. Go to London 40 yrs ago, they weren’t there, and they werent at whistler either. .

Latin American middle class took off in the 90’s, people that lived on dirt floors and had no car, their kids are know traveling to Disney land, Miami to buy air Jordan’s, I’ve witnessed it personally. My dad’s lawyer went from that to a Ferrari because her husband set up a debt collection agency in a country where only the uber rich had credit cards in the 8o’. again, I was there, still am, always will be.

Many of my millionaire Chilean family friends, are now billionaires, it makes my rich Californian friends look poor.

[californiagrown]

Many of my millionaire Chilean family friends, are now billionaires,

Hyperbole? There are 6 Chilean billionaires.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...s_by_net_worth

[Canada1]

Don't come here to ski Park City. They have done a terrible job. We are at 100% of average snow pack, and they have massive tracts of chairs that are not under exposure closed. The only explanation is that management didn't staff due to the strike. There are lines of people coming down to ski the front side when I make my commute every day. If you've bought an epic pass, try to switch it up for another resort. I feel so bad for all of the people standing in these lines and skiing the WSD's like it is opening weekend with 80% more skiers. While I am angry at the thousands I have into passes for this poor experience, my heart bleeds for all of you that spent money to come here to be treated this way.

[TBS]

There should be enough wealthy folks in Bend that can purchase it similar to how Killington was just sold to locals.

Only problem is that billionaires in general don't have any interest in owning ski resorts and dealing with the hassle. Fail's failure in PC of course won't make anyone want to get into the business I'm sure the local courts will be slammed for the next few years dealing with all the lawsuits that are coming.

There is a local group trying to put something together but it doesn’t seem to have much traction.
- There’s not the kind of money here that there is in the Boston area. You’d need a bunch of people to put this together, not just two like @ Kmart. Makes things a lot more complicated, with a lot more big egos involved.

- People understand there is not much chance of ever earning a decent ROI at the $180million Powdr thinks it’s worth. Especially with all the work needed to fix the lifts so that customers don’t have to hike out every couple of weeks. Or as somebody suggested, install a surface lift to haul those people out from NWX, OBX & CCX (all well below the elevations of the lodges & parking lots)

[Meadow Skipper]

Frankly the patrollers strike is more likely to be an excuse to raise prices more rather than a reason to.

This.

[summit]

MTN is in the low 180s from 188 when this thread started. 52 week performance is slightly above par vs luxury goods sector, which is my best guess comparo, but it is not a good one... really hard to compare MTN to any sub sector.

I still can't believe how dumb MTN leaders had to be to get into this situation. It would have been easy and relatively cheap to up starting wages in PCMR to look more like say Copper Mountain.

[old goat]

MTN is in the low 180s from 188 when this thread started. 52 week performance is slightly above par vs luxury goods sector, which is my best guess comparo, but it is not a good one... really hard to compare MTN to any sub sector.

372 November 2021. The ups and downs since the strike mean nothing.

[summit]

372 November 2021. The ups and downs since the strike mean nothing.

The drivers from Nov 2021 are very different, many expected.

[Dantheman]

I hope all the PC refugees were enthused on the Cottonwoods driving experience and don’t return. My honest opinion? Book a vacation at a shitty resort and don’t be surprised it sucked. I’m really kinda surprised to hear folks here had their vacations ruined. Seriously, anyone that has read this board for a while should’ve realized a long time ago Park City sucks.

Heard on the lift this weekend:

"Next time we should go to Snowbasin even if there's less snow."

Probably Ikoners and not PC refugees, but that still warmed my heart.