Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[stalefish3169]

Stalefish posting disingenuous arguments as the new year starts is the kind of dependable stability we need in this messed up world.

So do you agree with Jong that "just holding Bitcoin has a negative expected return" or not?

[bennymac]

Why are you jumping back to Jongs comments and skipping over what Jimmy said? Hmmm

Quit deflecting and post up your chart but replace BTC with all cryptocurrencies. Then at least you could make an honest argument.

[J. Barron DeJong]

So do you agree with Jong that "just holding Bitcoin has a negative expected return" or not?

Does Bitcoin have any revenue stream outside of the people buying coins? No.

Do miners earn coins instead of buying coins, for services provided? Yes.

That results in a negative expected return. So what the fuck are you on about?

“I’m up at the craps table, so how can you say that the expected return of playing this game is negative?”

[skaredshtles]

<snip> all cryptocurrencies.

Apropos of nothing really: I went to Coinbase to do a little research a couple weeks back on... stuff, and whilst there I discovered that there are over 17,600 different cryptocurrencies.

[stalefish3169]

Why are you jumping back to Jongs comments and skipping over what Jimmy said? Hmmm

Quit deflecting and post up your chart but replace BTC with all cryptocurrencies. Then at least you could make an honest argument.

We all knew you wouldn't answer the simple question because you're a low self-esteem troll.

This is the Bitcoin thread, Benny. Anybody with an IQ above 80 knows that Bitcoin and Hawk Tuah coin are not the same thing.

[stalefish3169]

Does Bitcoin have any revenue stream outside of the people buying coins? No.

Do miners earn coins instead of buying coins, for services provided? Yes.

That results in a negative expected return. So what the fuck are you on about?

“I’m up at the craps table, so how can you say that the expected return of playing this game is negative?”

Maybe your brain is breaking because you're trying to apply models to something for which they are not applicable?

[bennymac]

We all knew you wouldn't answer the simple question because you're a low self-esteem troll.

This is the Bitcoin thread, Benny. Anybody with an IQ above 80 knows that Bitcoin and Hawk Tuah coin are not the same thing.

Just like every stock in the S&P is not the same thing - we now see your IQ wasn’t over the number needed to realize that.

Thanks for playing!

[J. Barron DeJong]

Maybe your brain is breaking because you're trying to apply models to something for which they are not applicable?

Maybe your brain is already broken and that’s why you can’t understand what you’ve bought.

[stalefish3169]

Just like every stock in the S&P is not the same thing.

Thanks for playing!

"We believe Bitcoin is an asset class in itself.” - Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock

What exactly are your credentials? I don't think being a cunt qualifies your opinion above Larry's.

[J. Barron DeJong]

We’ve all decided to store our water in this leaking water tower, but don’t worry, as long as we keep getting new people to bring buckets of water we’ll be able to get all our water back and more!

Great, what happens when you run out of new people?

How much water should the bucket brigade expect to get back?

[bennymac]

"We believe Bitcoin is an asset class in itself.” - Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock

What exactly are your credentials? I don't think being a cunt qualifies your opinion above Larry's.

“Tradfi is the devil - unless they talk my bag.”

You seem very agitated by the way. This is the padded room - no need to stroke out being this irritable and intense LOL.

Meanwhile where is Shera to tell us it’s those of us critical of the cult that are bringing all the hate? Yet she welcomes you back while you call me a cunt…ok.

You guys are transparent. Try parking the personal insults and actually use adult behavior. Or just whine more about how you’re a special persecuted snowflake…let’s hear it.

[JimmyCarter]

"We believe Bitcoin is an asset class in itself.” - Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock

What exactly are your credentials? I don't think being a cunt qualifies your opinion above Larry's.

By which he means it doesn’t trade like other crypto, kinda like NVDA!
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/stor...class-a00c9dfe

So we’ve addressed the trading issue, now address the diversification issue and why you would compare returns like that!

[stalefish3169]

“Tradfi is the devil - unless they talk my bag.”

You seem very agitated by the way. This is the padded room - no need to stroke out being this irritable and intense LOL.

Meanwhile where is Shera to tell us it’s those of us critical of the cult that are bringing all the hate? Yet she welcomes you back while you call me a cunt…ok.

You guys are transparent. Try parking the personal insults and actually use adult behavior. Or just whine more about how you’re a special persecuted snowflake…let’s hear it.

You don't get to be an obvious troll and then get up on your high horse dude. Trolls who aim to disrupt rather than adding to the conversation in good faith deserve no respect.

Jong's arguments may be wildly wrong, but at least he's not trying to just be a nefarious troll. At least not anywhere near the level you do.

[bennymac]

You keep trying to attack me as a person in an obvious effort to avoid responding to Jimmy’s comments about BTC.

Read that twice so it really sinks in.

It’s just proving me right though so thanks for that I guess.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Jong's arguments may be wildly wrong…

Can you explain where my description of Bitcoin’s accounting has gone wrong?

Like where the fuck does the money come from so that every Bitcoin buyer comes out ahead on average?

Line goes up (so far) isn’t an answer. Neither is 1 BTC=1 BTC.

[Bunion 2020]

[stalefish3169]

Can you explain where my description of Bitcoin’s accounting has gone wrong?

Like where the fuck does the money come from so that every Bitcoin buyer comes out ahead on average?

Line goes up (so far) isn’t an answer. Neither is 1 BTC=1 BTC.

You have to acknowledge that saying "just holding Bitcoin has a negative expected return" and "where the fuck does the money come from so that every Bitcoin buyer comes out ahead on average?" are not the same things.

Sure, people who FOMO in during large upswings have potential to get rekt if they sell for short-term losses. But that's not really any different than what happens with stocks.

[stalefish3169]

Everyone, post pics of your cocoa P&Ls!

https://www.etfcentral.com/news/can-...ices-with-etfs

"While the UCITS ETF market in Europe offers pure-play cocoa ETFs from WisdomTree, U.S. investors don't have direct equivalents. The most similar product previously available was the now-delisted iPath Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex Total Return ETN (NIB)."

[Bunion 2020]

Did I strike a nerve? Sorry man.

At lease Cocoa makes something that has a use.

[J. Barron DeJong]

You have to acknowledge that saying "just holding Bitcoin has a negative expected return" and "where the fuck does the money come from so that every Bitcoin buyer comes out ahead on average?" are not the same things.

Sure, people who FOMO in during large upswings have potential to get rekt if they sell for short-term losses. But that's not really any different than what happens with stocks.

I do not acknowledge that they’re different things. It’s my whole fucking point!

You’re saying if you gamble well instead of poorly you’ll come out ahead. Like, yeah, no shit! But that doesn’t change the fact that there’s less money available to be pulled out than is put in - because miners - so the AVERAGE return is expected to be negative.

That’s fundamentally different than stocks or bonds, because stocks and bonds reflect an ecosystem where outside money is continually coming in - through revenues or taxes.

You’re fucking hopeless.

[stalefish3169]

I do not acknowledge that they’re different things. It’s my whole fucking point!

You’re saying if you gamble well instead of poorly you’ll come out ahead. Like, yeah, no shit! But that doesn’t change the fact that there’s less money available to be pulled out than is put in - because miners - so the AVERAGE return is expected to be negative.

That’s fundamentally different than stocks or bonds, because stocks and bonds reflect an ecosystem where outside money is continually coming in - through revenues or taxes.

You’re fucking hopeless.

There is risk in any sort of investing and the risk profile changes depending on length of investment. Look at GameStop...there have been many times on the chart when company revenue has not done anything to save the short-term speculators who bought at the top of mania periods.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Picture a game where each round you bet $1 on the flip of a coin. If the coin come up heads you win $1.80, but if it comes up tails you lose your dollar. In the long run you expect to lose $0.10 each round, or 10% of your money.

But if you don’t think through the math and you end up coming up heads on the first 8 of 10 flips you’ll think it’s a pretty good game.

stale seems to think we’ve hit the long term with Bitcoin, and it’s up. What I’m trying to get across is that what we’ve actually experienced is eight of the first 10 flips coming up heads, leading everyone to believe they’re playing a game they can win.

Thinking about how money flows into and out of Bitcoin tells you that the average purchaser of Bitcoin HAS to lose money, even if the current valuation makes almost all of them ahead on paper right now.

[J. Barron DeJong]

There is risk in any sort of investing and the risk profile changes depending on length of investment. Look at GameStop...there have been many times on the chart when company revenue has not done anything to save the short-term speculators who bought at the top of mania periods.

You are really fucking dense.

Yes, there is risk. But at least it’s mathematically possible for everyone who buys a stock or bond to come out ahead, and on average they do. BECAUSE THERE CAN BE MORE MONEY IN THE SYSTEM THAN JUST WHAT INVESTORS HAVE PAID FOR THE STOCK OR BOND!.

With Bitcoin THERE IS LESS MONEY IN THE SYSTEM THAN WHAT INVESTORS HAVE PUT IN BECAUSE MINERS TAKE SOME OUT AND THERE IS NO OTHER MONEY ENTERING! IT’S MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE AVERAGE PURCHASER TO COME OUT AHEAD!

[climberevan]

I haven't followed this thread super closely, so forgive me if this is an ignorant question

Does anyone, in 2025 and with a straight face, still claim that crypto is anything other than pure gambling?

[stalefish3169]

You are really fucking dense.

Yes, there is risk. But at least it’s mathematically possible for everyone who buys a stock or bond to come out ahead, and on average they do. BECAUSE THERE CAN BE MORE MONEY IN THE SYSTEM THAN JUST WHAT INVESTORS HAVE PAID FOR THE STOCK OR BOND!.

With Bitcoin THERE IS LESS MONEY IN THE SYSTEM THAN WHAT INVESTORS HAVE PUT IN BECAUSE MINERS TAKE SOME OUT AND THERE IS NO OTHER MONEY ENTERING! IT’S MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE AVERAGE PURCHASER TO COME OUT AHEAD!

It's funny that you keep calling me dense, when objectively speaking I've been very right on the big BTC picture for years now and you've been very wrong. Big facts.

Also, your understanding of BTC fundamentals is incorrect. BTC miners make money from transactions fees. So in fact, there is more money entering the system. While it may not be of value to most people in this thread who have immense financial privilege as North Americans, the ability to send money to anyone with an internet connection without centralized company or government is a major innovation, whether of not you choose to admit it.