Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[4matic]

MSTR is setup for a huge island top. It’s now the largest stock holding in Fidelity Multi Asset Income Fund and allocated to many others. That’s not a positive as momentum funds will be sellers, not buyers, on weakness.

[JimmyCarter]

What happens to BTC when Europe bans USDT in a few days?

[MakersTeleMark]

USDT has a year to become compliant. Not a problem. For instance, USDC already is. You might want to do some research.

[JimmyCarter]

[emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji639][emoji639]]USDT has a year to become compliant. Not a problem. For instance, USDC already is. You might want to do some research.

It’s already being delisted now though, so the question still stands. Im sure you’ll claim FUD but I’m just going off what cointelegraph and the other shitty crypto websites throw into my feed, so I’m not the one spreading it.
[ATTACH][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][/ATTACH]

[MakersTeleMark]

You aren't spreading it? No, you are just regurgitating shit in your "feed".

https://legalnodes.com/article/mica-...tion-explained

[JimmyCarter]

[emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]You aren't spreading it? No, you are just regurgitating shit in your "feed".

https://legalnodes.com/article/mica-...tion-explained

And you’re still not answering my question. For a bunch of people who hate the fed, you guys get awfully pissy when someone mentions your own fractional reserve system.

[bennymac]

Get a grip - regurgitating links without meaningful comment from cryptopump echo chambers and “Bitcoin Magazine” is the most celebrated behavior in here amongst culty BTC holders - at least Jimmy is taking the step of commenting on what he brings in here.

[LeeLau]

So… textbook Greater Fool Theory…. nice.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

That's the basis of the US stock market. A casino with lipstick, and options and leverage

[BCMtnHound]

Don't hear much lately about the why behind cryptocurrency…. I think a lot of people buying Bitcoin caught up in the hype have no idea what they are buying. There is a ton of positive feedback buying right now, value goes up so I should buy more, drives value up, etc... but within the current market there is a fundamental lack of understanding of where the true value of a cryptocurrency token is derived from. Maybe I have no idea what I am talking about.

I’m with you. Don’t understand the hype. Remember when they first came out, almost being given away to buy a pizza. Thought about grabbing a couple coins on a lark. Shame to have missed that opportunity. But it has moved so far beyond that initial intrinsic value.

That's the basis of the US stock market. A casino with lipstick, and options and leverage

And this. I leave this kind of play to my financial professionals. My talents lay elsewhere.

[LeeLau]

I’m with you. Don’t understand the hype. Remember when they first came out, almost being given away to buy a pizza. Thought about grabbing a couple coins on a lark. Shame to have missed that opportunity. But it has moved so far beyond that initial intrinsic value.



And this. I leave this kind of play to my financial professionals. My talents lay elsewhere.

Yup. It's all a gigantic game.

Any efforts to distinguish one financial vehicle from another and micro-parse "investing" vs " gambling" is quaint blovating. And this goes for both the bitcoin maxis and the bitcoin is tulip-mania side.

[J. Barron DeJong]

That's the basis of the US stock market. A casino with lipstick, and options and leverage

There are all kinds of people who trade stocks like it’s a casino. But it’s also possible to put your money in an S&P 500 index fund and then wait, and have every reason to believe it will be up decades from now.

That should not be your expectation when putting your money in Bitcoin. The average person will pull out less than they put in. That’s the simple accounting of how Bitcoin works.

[4matic]

That's the basis of the US stock market. A casino with lipstick, and options and leverage

Blackrock would have a cat eye marble etf if there was demand for it.

[MakersTeleMark]

There are all kinds of people who trade stocks like it’s a casino. But it’s also possible to put your money in an S&P 500 index fund and then wait, and have every reason to believe it will be up decades from now.

That should not be your expectation when putting your money in Bitcoin. The average person will pull out less than they put in. That’s the simple accounting of how Bitcoin works.

Sir Jong a Lot, simple serious question: Why do you let your emotions get in the way of making money? Do you think big firms give a shit?

[J. Barron DeJong]

Sir Jong a Lot, simple serious question: Why do you let your emotions get in the way of making money? Do you think big firms give a shit?

That’s not what I’m doing.

Let me try to explain it just considering stocks in the S&P 500 index:

You can invest in the index long term by buying an S&P 500 index fund and just holding it. In that case your returns are going to be the returns of the average of all stocks in the index, and over a long enough time you can be quite confident that the return will be positive, even if the returns can be volatile in a shorter time frame.

Another way to do it is to pick and choose individual stocks, and buy and sell frequently, trying to time when prices are heading up and heading down, because you aren’t happy accepting the average return of the S&P 500 index. It’s possible to beat the index returns through a combination of skill and/or luck (evidence strongly points to mostly luck), but the S&P 500 index is still the average, so if you’ve managed to beat it, someone else managed to underperform it. You’re gambling that you will be the one who over-performs, not underperforms the index.

I don’t call buying and selling short term, trying to find momentum swings investing. You’re not investing in a company, or a bond in that situation. You’re using that stock or bond as a means to place a bet that you can predict how the price will move short term better than the other people trying to do the same thing.

The difference between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin is that the stocks in the S&P 500 are actual companies, with actual profits, so the money in those stocks doesn’t solely represent the money stock buyers have put in, those companies have positive revenues as well, which is why the S&P 500 can be expected to go up over time. So you can gamble if you want, or you can invest long term if you want, and some gamblers will over-perform and some will underperform, but the average is still a long term gain.

With Bitcoin, however, there is no money in the system outside of the money Bitcoin buyers themselves have put in; there’s no revenue stream that holding a coin entitles you to. But there are the costs that miners extract. So in the long run the expected return of someone who buys and holds is negative, and while some short term traders trying to time price swings will be successful, the average return still has to be negative. It’s pure gambling. The average long term ‘investor’, if that’s what they consider themselves to be, will be a loser.

I have no idea how long ‘long term’ is in the case of Bitcoin.

[MultiVerse]

That’s not what I’m doing.

Let me try to explain it just considering stocks in the S&P 500 index:

You can invest in the index long term by buying an S&P 500 index fund and just holding it. In that case your returns are going to be the returns of the average of all stocks in the index, and over a long enough time you can be quite confident that the return will be positive, even if the returns can be volatile in a shorter time frame

Can we be confident future S&P returns will be positive? I certainly hope that's the case. But if Jong's policy agenda were ever fully enacted that would certainly not be the case.

We know Jong's preferred policy agenda would crush U.S. productivity because there are real world examples of where that's happened. UK politics & economic policy, for example, wrecked productivity growth starting in the mid-2000s. If we do the same things here we'll get the same result:



20% below trend productivity growth is a depression by economic standards

[bobz]

Sorry DeJong, it's not so black and white. SP500 is investing in stocks, and SP500 does have risk (though its algorithm certainly reduces risk, just as individual stock pickers reduce their overall risk by holding more than one stock). The mighty S&P has circled the drain, for decades, in the past, which could happen again. Also, there are at least some SP500 stocks whose valuations are based more on hypothetical business prospects (which I don't necessarily agree with) than anything else, and yet when such a stock goes way up for whatever reason and boosts my SP500 holdings, hey, I'll take it.

As for Bitcoin, well, you know where I'm at on that one. I'd be happy to jump into that particular invest/gamble gray zone if it wasn't (logarithmically speaking) so late in the game. And when it comes to Bitcoin's inherent valuation, I guess it's a matter of how you look at it, glass-entirely-full or glass-empty-and-bone-dry, ha ha, so hey, call me a pessimist on that one. Or whatever, I invest/gamble with shit I'm comfortable with, and that's worked decently well so far.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Sorry DeJong, it's not so black and white. SP500 is investing in stocks, and SP500 does have risk (though its algorithm certainly reduces risk, just as individual stock pickers reduce their overall risk by holding more than one stock). The mighty S&P has circled the drain, for decades, in the past, which could happen again. Also, there are at least some SP500 stocks whose valuations are based more on hypothetical business prospects (which I don't necessarily agree with) than anything else, and yet when such a stock goes way up for whatever reason and boosts my SP500 holdings, hey, I'll take it.

There is a fundamental difference between a stock and bitcoin. Same as there’s a fundamental difference between a stock and gold, or a stock and a dollar. That much is black and white.

It’s not 100% guaranteed that if you put your money in an S&P 500 index fund it will be up in 40 years, but you can be pretty confident that will be the case. Similarly, if you buy and hold 30 year treasuries you can be pretty confident, but not 100% certain, that they’ll pay out as promised. No investment is certain.

What is certain is that if everyone who’s put actual money into Bitcoin tried to pull it all out, on average they’d be losers. That’s the accounting of it, and that accounting is fundamentally different than that of a stock or bond.

Not sure what else to say if that’s still not clear at this point.

[4matic]

MSTR island top in place. Now look for breakaway gap.

[bobz]

There is a fundamental difference between a stock and bitcoin. Same as there’s a fundamental difference between a stock and gold, or a stock and a dollar. That much is black and white.

It’s not 100% guaranteed that if you put your money in an S&P 500 index fund it will be up in 40 years, but you can be pretty confident that will be the case. Similarly, if you buy and hold 30 year treasuries you can be pretty confident, but not 100% certain, that they’ll pay out as promised. No investment is certain.

Okay, that works. I'm not as hung up on the terminology as you are. I have no illusions about why I invest in the things that I invest in; I'm consciously taking risks to make money that I don't need to work for. Stocks and bitcoin are objectively different categories, but it's all one big game from where I sit. Quite often, my stock gains take advantage of someone else's loss and vice versa. I'm opting out of bitcoin not because it's not in a category to be considered a legit investment, but because it doesn't pass my own personal risk/reward test (for some of the exact reasons that you've mentioned).

[J. Barron DeJong]

Okay, that works. I'm not as hung up on the terminology as you are. I have no illusions about why I invest in the things that I invest in; I'm consciously taking risks to make money that I don't need to work for. Stocks and bitcoin are objectively different categories, but it's all one big game from where I sit. Quite often, my stock gains take advantage of someone else's loss and vice versa. I'm opting out of bitcoin not because it's not in a category to be considered a legit investment, but because it doesn't pass my own personal risk/reward test (for some of the exact reasons that you've mentioned).

I think it’s a pretty important distinction though!

Like you’re going to have a better odds making money in the stock market - even if you’re doing it in a way that I’d consider closer to gambling than investing - than you will by playing blackjack at a casino.

The stocks have an expected positive return, so even if you underperform the average you can still make money. Whereas with blackjack the expected return is negative so you have to substantially over-perform to come out ahead.

Investing in Bitcoin is like Blackjack in that the expected return is negative.

[stalefish3169]

And just holding Bitcoin has a negative expected return.

How long can Jong keep getting away with vomiting absurd BS before it becomes clear that he's the scammer here?

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/31/bitc...ecord%20levels.

[JimmyCarter]

How long can Jong keep getting away with vomiting absurd BS before it becomes clear that he's the scammer here?

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/31/bitc...ecord%20levels.

BTC is a single asset, not a class, so it’s disingenuous to compare it against diversified indices.

Some I ndividual stocks that did better than BTC in 2024:

Palantir- up 340%
Vistra- up 248%
NVDA- up 171%
United Airlines- up 135%
Axon - up 130%

[stalefish3169]

BTC is a single asset, not a class, so it’s disingenuous to compare it against diversified indices.

Some I ndividual stocks that did better than BTC in 2024:

Palantir- up 340%
Vistra- up 248%
NVDA- up 171%
United Airlines- up 135%
Axon - up 130%

Hello CNBC, the dead president would like to speak to the manager.

[JimmyCarter]

[emoji637][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]];[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji640][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]]]Hello CNBC, the dead president would like to speak to the manager.

I’d ask the generic [emoji638][emoji639] year old CNBC contributor to explain herself, but I doubt she understands it any better than you do

https://www.cnbc.com/samantha-subin/#:~:text=Samantha%[emoji638][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]Subin%[emoji638][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]is%[emoji638][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]a%[emoji638][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]reporter,multiplatform%[emoji638][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]journalism%[emoji638][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]and%[emoji638][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]general%[emoji638][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]business.

[bennymac]

Stalefish posting disingenuous arguments as the new year starts is the kind of dependable stability we need in this messed up world.