Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[JimmyCarter]

Some people are going to get absolutely ass raped when this ponzi falls apart. Saylor is either dumb as shit or one of the greatest con men in history.

[MakersTeleMark]

I really can't see who gets raped besides TradFi stockholders.

[JimmyCarter]

I really can't see who gets raped besides TradFi stockholders.

MSTR trades at over 2x the value of its BTC holdings. A $350 share only has a claim on $150 worth of BTC. As MSTR has no business operations, the end state for the multiple of NAV is somewhere between 0 and 1 (shares are worth value of holdings less MSTR’s expenses). MSTR adds no value beyond NAV. It’s a BTC holding co. The existence of this premium in the first place is mostly nonsensical but is driven by investor mania and an expectation that leveraged returns will consistently outpace actual BTC price increases. (See GBTC NAV premium for comparison).

Saylor is leveraging the current premium to buy more BTC, but the strategy only works if the premium over BTC grows over time instead of shrinking. Like a Ponzi scheme, Saylor’s strategy requires perpetual growth in BTC and a new supply of future investors dumber than the ones who already bought in- that is, it requires new people coming in who are willing to pay more per share to get a smaller BTC claim.

At the very least, it makes MSTR a stupid investment when you could just buy BTC instead.

At worst, you have a major BTCmarket mover who is destined to run into a wall, which will have disastrous results for the entire BTC ecosystem.

[LeeLau]

I've mulled shorting MSTR as a hedge against BTC holdings but the risk appetite ain't there

Now that BTC ETF options are liquid that's the hedge I'll probably use. Ie sell my Canuck BTC ETH etfs and rotate into something like IBIT.

Problem is the vol of BTC is so high something like a covered call options yield strategy is tough to figure out. The yield on a .20 delta call option for eg is 15%

If it's too good to be true...ya know what they say

[The Nuclear Option]

Good things from BTC ! Helping Evil Fascist countries evade sanctions!!!

Best use case yet!!!

[The Nuclear Option]

https://www.axios.com/2024/12/25/rus...nctions-crypto

[byates1]

MSTR trades at over 2x the value of its BTC holdings. A $350 share only has a claim on $150 worth of BTC. As MSTR has no business operations, the end state for the multiple of NAV is somewhere between 0 and 1 (shares are worth value of holdings less MSTR’s expenses). MSTR adds no value beyond NAV. It’s a BTC holding co. The existence of this premium in the first place is mostly nonsensical but is driven by investor mania and an expectation that leveraged returns will consistently outpace actual BTC price increases. (See GBTC NAV premium for comparison).

Saylor is leveraging the current premium to buy more BTC, but the strategy only works if the premium over BTC grows over time instead of shrinking. Like a Ponzi scheme, Saylor’s strategy requires perpetual growth in BTC and a new supply of future investors dumber than the ones who already bought in- that is, it requires new people coming in who are willing to pay more per share to get a smaller BTC claim.

At the very least, it makes MSTR a stupid investment when you could just buy BTC instead.

At worst, you have a major BTCmarket mover who is destined to run into a wall, which will have disastrous results for the entire BTC ecosystem.

Or you're wrong

[JimmyCarter]

Or you're wrong

I would love to hear you explain how, but you never seem to take people up on these offers

[byates1]

BTC is the new best base layer of money. All countries hold BTC. BTC in all tradfi already. BTC continues to dominate. BTC to 1M and beyond

Game over. You're wrong.
You're welcome.

[JimmyCarter]

;[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]]BTC is the new best base layer of money. All countries hold BTC. BTC in all tradfi already. BTC continues to dominate. BTC to [emoji637]M and beyond

Game over. You're wrong.
You're welcome.

and that has what to do with MSTR?

You know some of these concepts we talk about can actually be understood with a little bit of effort. I don’t have a TikTok to show you, but it might help you piece things together.

[byates1]

Of course I could be wrong, but looking around, sure doesn't seem like it.

BTC is the new baselayer. The better gold. It's going to 1M and we'll beyond. Do your grandkids a favor and leave them some.

[frorider]

and that has what to do with MSTR?

[JimmyCarter]

[emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]and that has what to do with MSTR?

Nothing, but he clearly got a new phrase from a YouTube video he saw, so let’s let him have his fun with it for a bit.

[byates1]

Hard to believe I have to type this but

Dude is rapidly aquiring the hardest money on the planet. He obviously believes BTC will explode to 13M. Seems a bit overzealous to me currently but he's all in bigly. So if he's correct mstr is 10T.

[byates1]

Nothing, but he clearly got a new phrase from a YouTube video he saw, so let’s let him have his fun with it for a bit.

You just slept on BTC and the best you have now is to continue to sound like a butthurt clown. Good news is your probably 70 plus and a miserable fuck. Good lesson here, don't end up like this guy.

[JimmyCarter]

;[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]Hard to believe I have to type this but

Dude is rapidly aquiring the hardest money on the planet. He obviously believes BTC will explode to [emoji637][emoji639]M. Seems a bit overzealous to me currently but he's all in bigly. So if he's correct mstr is [emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]T.

You say it’s hard money, and also that it will [emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]x (or more!) in value. Those are contradictory points.

[JimmyCarter]

;[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]You just slept on BTC and the best you have now is to continue to sound like a butthurt clown. Good news is your probably [emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]] plus and a miserable fuck. Good lesson here, don't end up like this guy.

You keep relying on the “line goes up” narrative to justify a bunch of claims you make that you clearly dont fully understand.

[byates1]

Everyone is and has literally watched it in the last 15 yrs. It's done nothing but go to 100.

It's new. We'll see. So far it's won.

[byates1]

You keep relying on the “line goes up” narrative to justify a bunch of claims you make that you clearly dont fully understand.

What happens when new money arrives. It goes up. What happened when computer came. Total dominance. Things happen

I understood BTC was worth a risk. It's not rocket science. Lee, stale etc, gets it. Buy. Hold. Win.

[JimmyCarter]

;[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji639]]Everyone is and has literally watched it in the last [emoji637][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]] yrs. It's done nothing but go to [emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]].

It's new. We'll see. So far it's won.

“Won” what?

If it’s hard money like you claim then what you’re saying means it lost.

If it’s a speculative asset that has had great returns that’s awesome, but that means it’s not currency.

[JimmyCarter]

;[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]What happens when new money arrives. It goes up. What happened when computer came. Total dominance. Things happen

I understood BTC was worth a risk. It's not rocket science. Lee, stale etc, gets it. Buy. Hold. Win.

You really don’t get it. And as I’ve explained in this thread (but like most things, you refuse to educate yourself on), I’ve probably been in crypto as long or longer than you. I’ve done very well with it. I’m just not a bullshit artist.

[byates1]

Neither am I. BTC is whatever you observe it to be. You're welcome to your opinion. As am I.

[frorider]

The judge ruled it is currency.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DDciC...c4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

[byates1]

Well that settles it

[bobz]

BTC is the new baselayer.

Tired: Merino
Wired: BTC

Seriously though, are you, like, saying something there, or are you confusing "base layer" (blockchain-specific term, not particularly relevant to general currency) with "base currency"? (Yeah yeah, chart goes up, peeps get rich, fans say woohoo, bobz sez happy for you; I get that part.)