Hurricane 2024

[bodywhomper]

John Morales, wx guru, is predicting that it’s not going to be a cake walk for those in the general Orlando area…

[Rideski]

Yeah I mean the last one went what 300-400 miles inland up hills?

[Gcooker]

What happens to an oil platform when it’s hit with 200 mph winds?


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[The AD]

Yeah I mean the last one went what 300-400 miles inland up hills?

Orography is what fucked North Carolina during Helene. At least there are no mountains to contend with in Orlando. They'll get rain and wind, but I can't imagine it will be anything like Asheville.

[stealurface831]

Orography is what fucked North Carolina during Helene.

that, and the fact that shit was flooded before the hurricane even got here.

[skiHOG]

Back to category 5 with 165mph winds. 905mb. A lot of models have shifted it a little south, with Sarasota area now getting the eye at landfall.

I leave the islands during hurricane season to avoid these storms, but here I am in Lakeland, FL with the gf trying to help her family. I already did my turn surviving Irma, so really not wanting to go through this again. Supposed to be at the Annapolis Boat Show this weekend, but I expect I'll be helping with cleanup now.

[Bunion 2020]

How many folks will call it quits on FL as a place to live after this season?

[gravitylover]

How many folks will call it quits on FL as a place to live after this season?

I'd still be ok with Key West (or even Marathon) but nothing north of there.

[Rideski]

Back to category 5 with 165mph winds. 905mb. A lot of models have shifted it a little south, with Sarasota area now getting the eye at landfall.

I leave the islands during hurricane season to avoid these storms, but here I am in Lakeland, FL with the gf trying to help her family. I already did my turn surviving Irma, so really not wanting to go through this again. Supposed to be at the Annapolis Boat Show this weekend, but I expect I'll be helping with cleanup now.

Good luck JT

[spanky]

Back to category 5 with 165mph winds. 905mb. A lot of models have shifted it a little south, with Sarasota area now getting the eye at landfall.

I leave the islands during hurricane season to avoid these storms, but here I am in Lakeland, FL with the gf trying to help her family. I already did my turn surviving Irma, so really not wanting to go through this again. Supposed to be at the Annapolis Boat Show this weekend, but I expect I'll be helping with cleanup now.

Latest model run has Tampa Bay to the north of the storm…

[BmillsSkier]

How many folks will call it quits on FL as a place to live after this season?

Some for sure (I think my in-laws may be among them) but it will be negligible. The US went a decade plus without a major named hurricane making landfall from 05-16 and plenty of people moved to Florida during that stretch thinking it would be the new normal.

My guess is you’d need a more sustained period of major storms hammering the state before you see any meaningful population shift. If anything I think insurers leaving the state will do more to accelerate that than any storm itself but that’s just my opinion.

[The SnowShow]

^^^ agree. But I keep hearing this may be the 1-2 punch of storms that sends insurers packing?

[fomofo]

Latest model run has Tampa Bay to the north of the storm…

I was watching CBS evening news earlier tonight and the weather guy was making the point the worst of the storm would be north of the eye.

I guess perhaps "how much north" is the question.

[neufox47]

^^^ agree. But I keep hearing this may be the 1-2 punch of storms that sends insurers packing?

Since Tampa appears to be missing the brunt and worst case scenario I think the insurance market survives but barely. Rates probably go up significantly from already the highest in the country.

[east or bust]

I was watching CBS evening news earlier tonight and the weather guy was making the point the worst of the storm would be north of the eye.

I guess perhaps "how much north" is the question.

Can anyone explain the reasoning behind this? I would have thought the worst would be south of the eye based on the rotation and it making landfall on a west facing coast.

[BmillsSkier]

Waffle House Hurricane Index:

https://apnews.com/article/waffle-ho...b50035a0da7819

[From_the_NEK]

How many folks will call it quits on FL as a place to live after this season?

After seeing how much new construction was taking place in the Port Charlotte area after Ian, I doubt people are going to stop moving to the area. So many northern boomers that want warm weather and seem to have money to burn.

[BmillsSkier]

So many northern boomers that want warm weather and seem to have money to burn.

It's why hockey exists in Florida.

[The SnowShow]

Tornadoes reported on the ground. Huge outbreak ahead of landfall.

[fomofo]

I was watching CBS evening news earlier tonight and the weather guy was making the point the worst of the storm would be north of the eye.

I guess perhaps "how much north" is the question.

Can anyone explain the reasoning behind this? I would have thought the worst would be south of the eye based on the rotation and it making landfall on a west facing coast.

Oops, he said more rain and freshwater flooding north, more storm surge south.

This is what was broadcast last night...

[doebedoe]

"Worst" depends on what metric you're discussing.

In the case of milton, winds look strongest on the N side of the storm. And its windfield is larger. And likely more total rain due to larger storm size on northern half.

But in case of surge, S side of the storm is far worse. The winds will be onshore for those on the south side of the storm which increase surge level and wind driven waves. North side of the storm will have offshore winds which will reduce surge height (compared to what it would be with direct hit or s side of storm).

If i live well outside of the surge but close to the coast, I'd rather be on the S. side of this storm. If I live in a surge area, I'd much rather be north of wherever the eye makes landfall.

I am not a forecaster; but lived in Ft. Myers a long time and have immediate family living in Cedar Key and Gainesville area.

[alias_rice]

I've got a house about 50 miles inland to the southeast of Tampa. I usually base my nervousness on how my neighbors react and for the first time since we've been there my neighbors are freaking out. In 2022 when Ian went directly over the top of us, no one really seemed to be too nervous, but now a bunch of our friends have gotten out of dodge. This one seems different. Nothing I can do here in Utah, but it's going to be a long night getting updates.

[The SnowShow]

Okeechobee County has two tornadoes on the ground in close proximity. Heading towards Yeehaw Junction.

Alligator Alley also has a tornado warning issued. Poor gators!

Lake Okeechobee has water spouts currently, that may become tornadoes.

You know is bad when seasoned meteorologists say this outbreak is prolific, historic and are shocked.

[halliday]

Waffle House Hurricane Index:

https://apnews.com/article/waffle-ho...b50035a0da7819

Say what you will about Waffle House but if information is king then they rule the roost. My wife, who is a retired reinsurance arbitrator/litigator in NYC and currently manages a newsletter for AIRROC, was on a conference call today and the Waffle House Index came up. Nobody was making jokes about Waffle House. This is a real thing.

[BmillsSkier]

Say what you will about Waffle House but if information is king then they rule the roost. My wife, who is a retired reinsurance arbitrator/litigator in NYC and currently manages a newsletter for AIRROC, was on a conference call today and the Waffle House Index came up. Nobody was making jokes about Waffle House. This is a real thing.

Oh it is absolutely a real thing. As Stealurface pointed out with Helene, he knew it was bad when the Waffle Houses in NC were shutting down.

These yellow and brown boxes are more than just purveyors of scattered, smothered and covered potatoes to drunks and tweakers at 4am, they're a community gathering site offering refuge when there is none at home - even more so in rural areas. A valuable thing to have if your life has been washed away by a storm.