Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[J. Barron DeJong]

ProfG's column today

The dot-com bubble of the late 90s was predicated on a thesis that proved out: The internet was the most transformative technology of this millennium, poised to create unprecedented value. That did happen, and several of the companies that appeared wildly overvalued turned out to have been bargains.

The housing market bubble of the 2000s was a function of low interest rates, financialization, and other external factors, but under all that was a correct thesis: Land is finite, houses are essential, and we don’t have enough of them. Nearly two decades later, we still don’t.

Crypto was a bubble largely fueled by psychological nonsense — the Bored Apes should have been called Bored Tulips. But blockchain technology made a case for providing real benefit, and the resilience of Bitcoin indicates it likely will endure as a store of value.

Housing bubble?

Better watch out, MV’s gonna get your ass.

[stalefish3169]

Me for the past few years:

"We're going to see more and more Bitcoin and green energy related investments over the coming years, especially in developing nations."

You guys for the past few years:

https://x.com/paulkrugman/status/959801709794078720

[J. Barron DeJong]

Me for the past few years:

"We're going to see more and more Bitcoin and green energy related investments over the coming years, especially in developing nations."

You guys for the past few years:

https://x.com/paulkrugman/status/959801709794078720

The only way that Bitcoin green energy investment becomes a net positive for the world is if Bitcoin collapses and that green energy infrastructure can then be used for something beneficial.

[dunfree]

ProfG's column today

The dot-com bubble of the late 90s was predicated on a thesis that proved out: The internet was the most transformative technology of this millennium, poised to create unprecedented value. That did happen, and several of the companies that appeared wildly overvalued turned out to have been bargains.

The housing market bubble of the 2000s was a function of low interest rates, financialization, and other external factors, but under all that was a correct thesis: Land is finite, houses are essential, and we don’t have enough of them. Nearly two decades later, we still don’t.

Crypto was a bubble largely fueled by psychological nonsense — the Bored Apes should have been called Bored Tulips. But blockchain technology made a case for providing real benefit, and the resilience of Bitcoin indicates it likely will endure as a store of value.

what .com company was a bargain from its pre-bust peak during the following decade? The closest is AMZN?

[MultiVerse]

Housing bubble?

Better watch out, MV’s gonna get your ass.

lol, Jong with a Micro Brain and Macro Head can't reconcile ProfG restating the same thesis, now backed by extensive research, that there was no housing bubble:

"but under all that was a correct thesis: Land is finite, houses are essential, and we don’t have enough of them. Nearly two decades later, we still don’t"

I mean, if the definition of a bubble is a "correct thesis" where housing prices look the same as they do in a world without bubbles then obviously there was no bubble. No nationwide housing bubble means ProfG is wrong about what caused the housing crash, too. The housing crash was caused by the recession due to people losing their jobs and not being able to pay their mortgages. The recession itself was caused by the Fed.

This is really basic stuff. A person can't be blamed for getting it wrong at the time, but still getting it wrong "Nearly two decades later" with updated info plus the benefit of hindsight is sloppy thinking.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Here he is now!

[MultiVerse]

I’m the guy in the boat watching you drown in that Phil Collins song

[J. Barron DeJong]

I assume totally normal stuff is going on around me.

[MultiVerse]

"whatever"
- Adrian Newey

[J. Barron DeJong]

Trump media stock didn’t flinch when Q1 report showed less than a million in revenue and over 300 million in losses.

Probably can be considered a store of value now, and is definitely not a scam.

[byates1]

Inverse jong FTW

Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[J. Barron DeJong]

Inverse jong FTW

Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

So does that mean you’re buying Trump stock?

[byates1]

As a meme play sure why not.

[J. Barron DeJong]

As a meme play sure why not.

The fact that it would be a ‘meme play’ should be reason enough not to.

[LeeLau]

what .com company was a bargain from its pre-bust peak during the following decade? The closest is AMZN?

GOOG post bust at one point traded at 1.5x sales, P/E 11. Not bad at all.

Thinking of some others in the same vein AKAM although arguably infrastructure. VRSN, CHKP ( security). RSAS too but they were bought. JNPR (network infra). Can keep racking brain to think of more. I don't have the exact numbers for them but I remember Mary Meeker of MS put together a good retrospective where she admitted she overhyped the space but highlighted the ones which survived and their resulting ratios.

Not many in the B2C e-commerce space I can think of as there simply weren't many survivors. I think there B2B did better but memory fails me on that space.

[LeeLau]

Dunfree. Interesting chart I found. It took longer than I recalled for the bubble to unwind at least on the downside and on a secular index level

I don't have specific valuations but it'd be interesting to also run numbers for INTC CSCO at that time

[MultiVerse]

The dotcom bubble didn't make sense unless you thought tech would push aside market leaders, at the time, like GE, GM, Ford, and Walmart. So there's two ways to look at LeeLau's chart: 1) It didn't makes sense to buy the Nasdaq at the short lived peak of 5000 in 2000, 2) it didn't make sense not to buy the Nasdaq at any time before or after 2000.

Robert Shiller still gets credit (Jong cites him) for predicting the housing "bubble" prior to 2008 but no criticism for saying stocks and houses were overpriced in 2011. Since then internet & tech jobs caused housing prices to rise even faster in cities, Apple created a revolution where even the developing world now has smart phones, and Amazon's market cap is more than three times Walmart's.

What happened is pessimists won the narrative and optimists won reality with housing & tech. Who wouldn't want to go back and buy Amazon in the 90s, or a house in the 2000s, or Bitcoin at $10? Nobody can say whether bitcoin is overpriced today, whether it's Worldcom or Amazon. But crypto is a human invented opt-in technology like the internet, and like the internet is growing into becoming a human built institution.

[LeeLau]

There's a really good primary research book called Triumph of the Optimists. It's influential and shaped a lot of my thinking. It's a long, involved read and avoids a lot of the macroeconomics babble so beloved by many. It's sort of a backstop gedanken experiment for practical finance

https://www.amazon.ca/Triumph-Optimi...b-4d4ca401a099

The authors of this book would see a reason for Gamestop or for crypto generally

[The Suit]

There's a really good primary research book called Triumph of the Optimists. It's influential and shaped a lot of my thinking. It's a long, involved read and avoids a lot of the macroeconomics babble so beloved by many. It's sort of a backstop gedanken experiment for practical finance

https://www.amazon.ca/Triumph-Optimi...b-4d4ca401a099

The authors of this book would see a reason for Gamestop or for crypto generally

Kinda pricey, Lee. It better be good

[LeeLau]

Kinda pricey, Lee. It better be good

Man... you're one of the few who'd remember these times. I looked up historicals for Intel and they only went back 20 years to 2004. We're old.

[The Suit]

Man... you're one of the few who'd remember these times. I looked up historicals for Intel and they only went back 20 years to 2004. We're old.

Too old to understand bitcoin!

[stalefish3169]

Probablemente nada.

https://x.com/CathieDWood/status/179...vCcMv6Vmg&s=19

[Vt-Freeheel]

Yep

/unsolved-mystery-how-much-power-is-crypto-using

[J. Barron DeJong]

Probablemente nada.

https://x.com/CathieDWood/status/179...vCcMv6Vmg&s=19

Bwahahah!!!

That’s way worse than nada.

Art-fucking-Laffer?

And weren’t we just taking about how Wood has the worst record of any fund in the past decade?

Sounds like El Salvador is going to be in a world of hurt.

[stalefish3169]

Bwahahah!!!

That’s way worse than nada.

Art-fucking-Laffer?

And weren’t we just taking about how Wood has the worst record of any fund in the past decade?

Sounds like El Salvador is going to be in a world of hurt.

Read the writing on the wall, Jong. Five years ago there weren't household names going down from the USA to invest in fucking El Salvador.

And for VT, lots of new mining coming online in El Salvador, and now Keyna, will be done using geothermal.