Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[stalefish3169]

What’s the inflation adjusted come of the typical Subway customer?

Asking for a friend.

You're giving off strong Krugman "the economy is doing great, why are the peasants complaining" vibes.

Face it, you've been totally wrong about BTC and your inflation is over call was incorrect too as evidenced by stonks dumping because JPOW isn't going to cut rates. Your credibility is close to zero. Remind me, who was saying for many months that inflation was not under control? Oh yeah, me.

Additionally you're an asshole for coming in here and actively rooting for Mag investments to fail. Choke on a fat bag of dicks.

[byates1]

^ jong is moving to a bay I heard. Can't resist bags of dicks.

[J. Barron DeJong]

You're giving off strong Krugman "the economy is doing great, why are the peasants complaining" vibes.

Face it, you've been totally wrong about BTC and your inflation is over call was incorrect too as evidenced by stonks dumping because JPOW isn't going to cut rates. Your credibility is close to zero. Remind me, who was saying for many months that inflation was not under control? Oh yeah, me.

Additionally you're an asshole for coming in here and actively rooting for Mag investments to fail. Choke on a fat bag of dicks.

What I hope is that fewer people, not more, lose money in a Ponzi.

And it’s just a straight up fact that the US economy has been doing better than any peer country economically. Everyone suffered inflation - so it wasn’t specific US policy that caused the bulk of it, and every income group save for the top quintile has seen their purchasing power increase since 2019, again with the lowest quintile having the biggest increase in purchasing power.

We came through a global pandemic and people are currently earning more - accounting for inflation - than the pre-pandemic forecast. That’s pretty amazing even if there’s plenty that could be better.

[byates1]

jong spend 10 hrs w saylor you will be a new jong

[stalefish3169]

What I hope is that fewer people, not more, lose money in a Ponzi.

And it’s just a straight up fact that the US economy has been doing better than any peer country economically. Everyone suffered inflation - so it wasn’t specific US policy that caused the bulk of it, and every income group save for the top quintile has seen their purchasing power increase since 2019, again with the lowest quintile having the biggest increase in purchasing power.

We came through a global pandemic and people are currently earning more - accounting for inflation - than the pre-pandemic forecast. That’s pretty amazing even if there’s plenty that could be better.

You act like fiat has been going to zero only because of covid, but that's far from the truth and it still doesn't absolve you from recently being wrong about BTC and inflation.

[JimmyCarter]

jong spend 10 hrs w saylor you will be a new jong

Spend 30 minutes with Saylor and you’re an idiot too.

The guy who openly admitted BTC was the only way to keep his second major business failure from happening after he couldn’t find anything productive to do with his stockholders money.

Now he’s stuck with a long bet on technology he doesn’t even understand and the only thing he can do as a CEO is shill the everlovingfuck out of it.

The bet may be working out in his favor so far, but don’t pretend it has anything to do with the nonsense he spews in these videos.

[J. Barron DeJong]

You act like fiat has been going to zero only because of covid, but that's far from the truth and it still doesn't absolve you from recently being wrong about BTC and inflation.

You have a very fundamental misunderstanding of inflation.

Does it ever seem weird to you that despite the dollars being on a steady march to zero the standard of living continuously improves?

[byates1]

Spend 30 minutes with Saylor and you’re an idiot too.

The guy who openly admitted BTC was the only way to keep his second major business failure from happening after he couldn’t find anything productive to do with his stockholders money.

Now he’s stuck with a long bet on technology he doesn’t even understand and the only thing he can do as a CEO is shill the everlovingfuck out of it.

The bet may be working out in his favor so far, but don’t pretend it has anything to do with the nonsense he spews in these videos.

That's like your opinion man

[J. Barron DeJong]

Additionally you're an asshole for coming in here and actively rooting for Mag investments to fail. Choke on a fat bag of dicks.

Gotta come back to this bullshit.

A big problem with Bitcoin is that it isn’t an ‘investment’, as has been pointed out repeatedly in here.

An investment has the possibility of making all involved better off.

Buy a stock and you have the chance of making money if the company is profitable. And if the company is profitable that hopefully means it’s hiring and paying workers, creating a product that the public finds valuable, etc.

Buy a bond and you expect to get paid back the initial amount plus guaranteed interest. And the borrowers get to use that money to do something they believe is a productive use.

Bitcoin isn’t that. It’s playing poker at a casino, where the house (miners) takes it’s cut, and any winnings for one person come from a loss by another.

So fuck off with your “why are you hoping my investment fails”. I’m hoping you don’t take money from someone else because neither of you understand the game you’re playing.

[byates1]

No. That's your take. We think it's not correct.

What you say is fine for you. Don't expect others to agree

Inverse jong ftw

[J. Barron DeJong]

No. That's your take. We think it's not correct.

What you say is fine for you. Don't expect others to agree

Inverse jong ftw

So where are your gains coming from?

It’s not that fucking complicated.

[stalefish3169]

So where are your gains coming from?

It’s not that fucking complicated.

How is buy low sell high for stonks any more magnanimous than why you're insinuating BTC is bad, especially when anyone can buy BTC while many people are restricted from buying stonks at at pre-IPO prices?

[byates1]

Jong on his high horse. BTC is a new element. Deal w it.

[JimmyCarter]

How is buy low sell high for stonks any more magnanimous than why you're insinuating BTC is bad, especially when anyone can buy BTC while many people are restricted from buying stonks at at pre-IPO prices?

That you don’t understand this concept speaks volumes.

[J. Barron DeJong]

How is buy low sell high for stonks any more magnanimous than why you're insinuating BTC is bad, especially when anyone can buy BTC while many people are restricted from buying stonks at at pre-IPO prices?

Jesus you’re dense.

Just because you can try to buy low/sell high to try to take advantage of price swings with stocks doesn’t mean you have to. In fact the generally accepted advice for someone investing is not to try and do that, because it’s a gambling strategy not an investment strategy.

But again, the difference is that stocks/bonds are actually capturing economic value being created, so holding them long term you can expect to capture a share of that value for yourself.

With Bitcoin, there is no economic value being created. It’s just pooling money, and the pool is smaller than what buyers have put in because miners are taking out. So over the long term there is a negative value. Thus the only way to make money is to time the price swings. Buying and holding doesn’t work in the long run.

Also, did anyone get hold of any Bitcoin before it was widely available to the public?

[stalefish3169]

Jesus you’re dense.

Just because you can try to buy low/sell high to try to take advantage of price swings with stocks doesn’t mean you have to. In fact the generally accepted advice for someone investing is not to try and do that, because it’s a gambling strategy not an investment strategy.

But again, the difference is that stocks/bonds are actually capturing economic value being created, so holding them long term you can expect to capture a share of that value for yourself.

With Bitcoin, there is no economic value being created. It’s just pooling money, and the pool is smaller than what buyers have put in because miners are taking out. So over the long term there is a negative value. Thus the only way to make money is to time the price swings. Buying and holding doesn’t work in the long run.

Also, did anyone get hold of any Bitcoin before it was widely available to the public?

First off you're calling me dense when you just got the two of the biggest issues in this thread MASSIVELY FUCKING WRONG! Do you have any self-awareness at all? I was in here claiming inflation was about to run hot months before it became a mainstream issue and you're still delusionally on Team Transitory. I was saying DCA at 4k in Jan 2019 and again at 17k in November 2022 and you just keep parroting the same vote Blue no matter who talking points over and over.

BTC has lots of economic value. It allows anyone to send money anywhere without permission and it works great. I've never had a single BTC transaction fail...not a single one. I've had many tradfi payments fail and get blocked. BTC trades 24/7 no matter what. When market makers are getting their asses handed to them they flip the circuit breaker and stop trading. Robinhood did it again just the other day even after they got a ton of shit doing it during the GME craziness. Why? Because the game is rigged and they know they can get away with it.

Lastly, BTC had an incredibly fair distribution. Look up Bitcoin faucets and report back. There was no pre-mine or insider handout. POW is fair. Hands down. Bitcoin is open source software, anyone can run it or use it.

[J. Barron DeJong]

First off you're calling me dense when you just got the two of the biggest issues in this thread MASSIVELY FUCKING WRONG! Do you have any self-awareness at all? I was in here claiming inflation was about to run hot months before it became a mainstream issue and you're still delusionally on Team Transitory. I was saying DCA at 4k in Jan 2019 and again at 17k in November 2022 and you just keep parroting the same vote Blue no matter who talking points over and over.

BTC has lots of economic value. It allows anyone to send money anywhere without permission and it works great. I've never had a single BTC transaction fail...not a single one. I've had many tradfi payments fail and get blocked. BTC trades 24/7 no matter what. When market makers are getting their asses handed to them they flip the circuit breaker and stop trading. Robinhood did it again just the other day even after they got a ton of shit doing it during the GME craziness. Why? Because the game is rigged and they know they can get away with it.

Lastly, BTC had an incredibly fair distribution. Look up Bitcoin faucets and report back. There was no pre-mine or insider handout. Bitcoin is open source software, anyone can run it or use it.

God-fucking-dammit!

Predicting what’s going to happen in the future is not the same thing as just understanding the fundamentals of how something works.

Ooh, inflation has only come down to 2.8 percent instead of the 2% target as of now. It’s still come down massively, right? It didn’t stay elevated?

Even granting that Bitcoin has some use, that doesn’t mean by holding it you should expect it to provide you positive returns, right?

Maybe this example will help you understand: The US dollar has a lot value. You can use them to do lots of beneficial things. But if you just hold on to dollars long term, you shouldn’t expect them to provide you a positive return. The value is what you can do with them.

Similarly, holding Bitcoin has a negative expected return. If you’re using them to do things that you find beneficial, great! Then that expected negative value may be worth it. But it’s not an investment, you should expect to lose by just holding it.

[stalefish3169]

God-fucking-dammit!

Predicting what’s going to happen in the future is not the same thing as just understanding the fundamentals of how something works.

Ooh, inflation has only come down to 2.8 percent instead of the 2% target as of now. It’s still come down massively, right? It didn’t stay elevated?

Even granting that Bitcoin has some use, that doesn’t mean by holding it you should expect it to provide you positive returns, right?

Maybe this example will help you understand: The US dollar has a lot value. You can use them to do lots of beneficial things. But if you just hold on to dollars long term, you shouldn’t expect them to provide you a positive return. The value is what you can do with them.

Similarly, holding Bitcoin has a negative expected return. If you’re using them to do things that you find beneficial, great! Then that expected negative value may be worth it. But it’s not an investment, you should expect to lose by just holding it.

Predictions are binary, son. They are right or wrong. You were wrong. Not only that, you had the audacity to come in here and actively cheer against us with skin in the game.

Additionally, the dollar has less and less value over time. Conversely, BTC is the best performing asset of recent history.

Just because the rate of recent inflation has come down doesn't mean that prices are going down, they are just going up more slowly than the rapid rate of the past few years.

Big facts.

[MultiVerse]

Additionally, the dollar has less and less value over time.

In long run nominal terms money is more or less neutral. That means price changes are proportional in nominal terms while real values equalize. If money arguments always and only depend on nominal values while ignoring real values and real demand then those arguments are more often than not wrong.

The dollar, for example, outperformed Bitcoin in real terms during the early 2020s inflation scare. It was only after inflation concerns started to subside that risk assets like Bitcoin began to once again experience tailwinds.

[stalefish3169]

In long run nominal terms money is more or less neutral. If money arguments always and only depend on nominal values while ignoring real values and real demand then those arguments are more often than not wrong.

The dollar, for example, outperformed Bitcoin in real terms during the early 2020s inflation scare. It was only after inflation concerns started to subside that risk assets like Bitcoin began to once again experience tailwinds.

MultiVerse posts are like the child of Rube Goldberg and Psycho Killer. Lots of words that don't say anything.

[shera]

It seems that the network is behaving a little differently after this halving. Since I turned machines off, with less than half the hashrate I have more than half the earnings and that's with the block reward cut in half. I know that's confusing, but I was expecting my earnings to be one quarter of what they were before and they are more than half.

On the halving block they started that new rune protocol that I don't know much about, but the fees are rolling in.

If this keeps up we won't need to worry about the block reward going to zero...

[stalefish3169]

It seems that the network is behaving a little differently after this halving. Since I turned machines off, with less than half the hashrate I have more than half the earnings and that's with the block reward cut in half. I know that's confusing, but I was expecting my earnings to be one quarter of what they were before and they are more than half.

On the halving block they started that new rune protocol that I don't know much about, but the fees are rolling in.

If this keeps up we won't need to worry about the block reward going to zero...

They Runes block fees are nuts! I think they will come down a lot once the initial dash to get the low mints phase passes. Anyway, glad you're making some extra Sats.

I almost tried to get an early Runestone but I didn't have the time to figure it all out. The process is crazy complex and it seems like a lot of the first wave of people got rekt from MEV and made some donations to the miners. Fuck around and find out!

Long-term I think the Runes are just a very early way to play with tech that will be utilized in other ways going forward. Same as the other NFTs.

[shera]

I gotta learn about utxo's I guess

[MultiVerse]

MultiVerse posts are like the child of Rube Goldberg and Psycho Killer. Lots of words that don't say anything.

When the money supply increases nominal wages, nominal prices of goods & services, etc. also increase proportionately over the long run. So nominal prices change, but real prices stay the same. Real wages, real prices, real interest rates, and real asset prices are not affected in the long run by monetary policy. So whether or not a person has made money investing in bitcoin depends on when they bought it, when they timed their purchase, not because bitcoin is per se an inflation hedge. In real terms, for example, bitcoin today 4/20/2024 at $64K is worth less than it was in 2021 at $64K.

[J. Barron DeJong]

I apologize. Next time I’ll be sure to include all waves of Covid, the Russian war in Ukraine, and the Oct. 7 attacks in my predictions.

Going forward, what global shocks should I be factoring for here?