Is the stock market going to tank?

[skaredshtles]

$LULU butts drive me nuts! <3

I think we can *all* find common ground here.

[MultiVerse]

The key to getting along with other people is to stop keeping score. So I'm not here to collect on a winning bet over whether the inflation rate would remain above 3-and-4% for 12 months or the fact that inflation would still decline nonetheless. For the record, that's 2-0 on mature things said today:

"I bet $37 core inflation is under 3% by Dec 1 2023" The annual core inflation rate for the 12 months of the bet was 4.0%. And the annual Consumer Price Index for the 12 months of the bet was 3.2%.

Meanwhile, this guy:

[schuss]

Srsly - the cognitive dissonance of most folks of a certain political bent is hilarious/sad/maddening.

You see, all this job growth is antifa. I mean crisis actors. Shit where's my script.

[skaredshtles]

The key to getting along with other people is to stop keeping score. So I'm not here to collect on a winning bet over whether the inflation rate would remain above 3-and-4% for 12 months or the fact that inflation would still decline nonetheless. For the record, that's 2-0 on mature things said today:

"I bet $37 core inflation is under 3% by Dec 1 2023" The annual core inflation rate for the 12 months of the bet was 4.0%. And the annual Consumer Price Index for the 12 months of the bet was 3.2%.

Meanwhile, this guy:

He'll be by any time now to double down.

[skaredshtles]

You see, all this job growth is antifa. I mean crisis actors. Shit where's my script.

Don't forget ISIS and MS-13! Perhaps throw in the FBI? And if you're feeling frisky, the CIA.

[RoooR]

The key to getting along with other people is to stop keeping score. So I'm not here to collect on a winning bet over whether the inflation rate would remain above 3-and-4% for 12 months or the fact that inflation would still decline nonetheless. For the record, that's 2-0 on mature things said today:

"I bet $37 core inflation is under 3% by Dec 1 2023" The annual core inflation rate for the 12 months of the bet was 4.0%. And the annual Consumer Price Index for the 12 months of the bet was 3.2%.

Meanwhile, this guy:

It's almost like farmers responded to higher pieces be growing more. I think I learned singing about that concept in school way back when.

[4matic]

10y printing 3.99%

[gravitylover]

What are the best S&P ETFs now?

[skaredshtles]

What are the best S&P ETFs now?

I'm in VOO - seems to track pretty well. Pretty low expenses.

[Toadman]

I think I will stick to Multiverse for stock market advice.

https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/stat...b061b3c92e223e

[ghosthop]

Besides squinting, is there a good way to start getting into reading charts? Something else to make decisions?

I bought 10k worth of VFIAX for ~384 and am looking to get my money back. Roth account so no concern with taxes but I think there are short term penalties. I planned to sell at 440 after the breakthrough at ~425, looks like one more good day should get me there. Are there any high level arguments for why I should hold onto it for longer? 440 was a fairly arbitrary number I made up in my head, I usually look at a 5 or 10 yr chart, do a back of napkin linear along the peaks, and buy when it's below and sell above. Has been working out but is not technical in any sense.

I started reading the Graham/Dodd book, am working through the first edition and then will reread the second. I may check out the fourth as well but want to read Random Walk and some more modern things as time allows.

[skaredshtles]

Besides squinting, is there a good way to start getting into reading charts? Something else to make decisions?

I bought 10k worth of VFIAX for ~384 and am looking to get my money back. Roth account so no concern with taxes but I think there are short term penalties. I planned to sell at 440 after the breakthrough at ~425, looks like one more good day should get me there. Are there any high level arguments for why I should hold onto it for longer? 440 was a fairly arbitrary number I made up in my head, I usually look at a 5 or 10 yr chart, do a back of napkin linear along the peaks, and buy when it's below and sell above. Has been working out but is not technical in any sense.

I started reading the Graham/Dodd book, am working through the first edition and then will reread the second. I may check out the fourth as well but want to read Random Walk and some more modern things as time allows.

I'm just curious what you're planning to do with the "money back" since this is a retirement account? Something with less risk?

[ghosthop]

I'm just curious what you're planning to do with the "money back" since this is a retirement account? Something with less risk?

Park it back at 5% and wait for things to go down again or rates to get cut, rinse and repeat. I did the same thing this past March - July with about the same results.

I honestly have no idea but ~15% seems like good enough. Otherwise it's just going to yoyo with the S&P.

ETA

Back of napkin, that 10k from March would be worth about 12k today. But if I sell at ~440 I will be up ~3k for the year. I have no strategy and am happy to be told I am being an idiot and let Bogle take the wheel.

[skaredshtles]

Park it back at 5% and wait for things to go down again or rates to get cut, rinse and repeat. I did the same thing this past March - July with about the same results.

I honestly have no idea but ~15% seems like good enough. Otherwise it's just going to yoyo with the S&P.

What you're doing is trying to time the market.

And it almost *never* works over the long term.

Seriously - just leave it there until you need to move it due to a change in your risk profile, or you need to rebalance your portfolio.

[goldenboy]

"Time in the market, not timing the market". Seriously, leave it alone...

[J. Barron DeJong]

What you're doing is trying to time the market.

And it almost *never* works over the long term.

Seriously - just leave it there until you need to move it due to a change in your risk profile, or you need to rebalance your portfolio.

This!!!!^^^

Read ‘Random Walk’ and then park your money in index funds. Rebalance every three months, or six months. If you’re youngish, probably about 90% should be in stocks, and you just live with the swings.

The stock market tends to have very sudden, large gains. If your money is parked, you’re likely to miss that.

Also, stock market goes up at a significantly higher rate, on average, than a savings account, or some other ‘safe’ asset. So just by the odds, you’re likely to lose here, not win.

The only ‘timing’ I’ve done is to increase my total retirement contributions when the stock market has dropped significant. But that’s just putting a bit of extra money in, I’m not moving it from one asset to another trying to beat the market.

[byates1]

Go to medellin, buy 100% pure. Come back, cut the f out of it. Bring it to Jackson and sell it for 100k+. Live laugh love.

[Brock Landers]

I have no strategy and am happy to be told I am being an idiot and let Bogle take the wheel.

It’s legit retirement money. Don’t fuck around.

In any event, your plan is too dependent and precise. The variables you’re planning around won’t happen in the order you’ve planned for.

Have a good strategy (not plan) that aligns your long term GOALS with your time horizon and risk tolerance. Blah blah blah boring shit. In other words, stick your money in the market and let it work.

Generally most people under 50…80% equities 10% govt bonds 10% high yield. Something like that. Call it a day. Annual rebalance. Or invest in one of those vanguard balanced funds. Call it a day.

[406]

I'll add on to the keep it in the s&p pile. Just buy more next big dip and/or regular buying. Don't waste time trying to time market twice.

[Danno]

I wouldn't listen to these guys. You're smarter than the market.

Alternatively, put it all on red?

[skaredshtles]

Hopefully ghosthop sold around 1:00pm EST today.



Maybe nakedshorts will finally be right.

[skaredshtles]

Hopefully ghosthop sold around 1:00pm EST today.



Maybe nakedshorts will finally be right.

Hopefully ghosthop bought back around 3:58pm EST yesterday.

[goldenboy]

Hopefully ghosthop bought back around 3:58pm EST yesterday.

Right? I was kind of hoping it would go down a bit before putting some more money in, even if I know better than trying to time anything.

[skaredshtles]

Right? I was kind of hoping it would go down a bit before putting some more money in, even if I know better than trying to time anything.

Dollar cost averaging, my good man... DCA.

[goldenboy]

Dollar cost averaging, my good man... DCA.

Harder to do when you income is all over the place... But yeah.

Edit to add. Studies have shown you're better off investing the money all at once rather than DCA if you do come into money from a commission check like me, or a bonus, or whatever. 75% of the time. /nerdout