Real Estate Crash thread

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

They know no shame. When push comes to shove, they'll come with all of the classist, fuck you I've got mine bullshit you can imagine. I've detailed it in this thread, but in my downvalley hood, the Super Karen's have nefariously wrangled control of the HOA to in essence block the construction of a low rise apartment complex which is compliant planning and zoning.

They didn't appreciate it when I told them in a public meeting that they were not rich enough to live in a gated community. The rich whites are running scared to the mountains. They are so delusional that they actually think their safety will be in jeopardy due to pitbulls and hispanics.

So I did some work with a client from New York recently at our local master planned golf community, and she was asking about adding a security system. I went over the options, with emphasis on home system, leak, and temp monitoring while she was away traveling. But she wanted a full home security system including motion activated exterior lights. I explained that there might be some HOA rules for motion lights and dark skies, etc.. I also made a comment that it wasn't exactly a high crime area, and she instantly shot back "It isn't right now!!". That's Fox news poisoning right there.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

I understand what it looks like, but OTOH I would not trust the Montana legislature to get anything right these days. Most of the laws they pass end up being challenged in court and losing.

It's crazy, elect a bunch of amateurs and outsiders and what do you get?

[TAFKALVS]

Thought exercise…

Given our current propensity to block development and obsession with “managing growth”, and hatred of density, is it possible to build a new city or town in this day and age? Or are we only capable of building suburbs and shopping centers?

[MagnificentUnicorn]

It’s supply and demand, people want large lots and convenient shopping. Developers want money. I don’t think it has much to do with managing growth, look around there’s development everywhere.


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[goldenboy]

Thought exercise…

Given our current propensity to block development and obsession with “managing growth”, and hatred of density, is it possible to build a new city or town in this day and age? Or are we only capable of building suburbs and shopping centers?

https://www.fastcompany.com/90949139...neur-behind-it

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[MiddleOfNight]

Thought exercise…

Given our current propensity to block development and obsession with “managing growth”, and hatred of density, is it possible to build a new city or town in this day and age? Or are we only capable of building suburbs and shopping centers?

absent any strategy, simply building more units doesn't necessarily make them affordable/attainable - just more richies or investment companies buy them and either rent for 3500/month, occupy part time, or VRBO. is the norm here. sure there's density, and more and more units all the time .. but at $3400 for 700 sq ft ... you'd haveta make what, 110/yr?!

same with ADU's - an in-town experiment showed folks VRBO them or hold them vacant for their chef when they all come to town over the holidays. so what do you do, deed restrict, build into land use/zoning, tax incentivize, other ideas? to the people who ride private planes, that won't convince them to affordably rent to the local liftie or lumberworker instead of their chef or hairdresser or personal assistant. what's 700/month to that guy and his plane?

the supply/demand thing is a little upside down surrounding some mountain ski towns. there are still so so so many rich people looking to park cash that it's hard to imagine a free-market supply of housing large enough to satisfy that demand - there's not enough land in the valley. it's still cheaper to make workers drive +90 minutes.

i guess my point is that deregulating land use / zoning to allow for more units, and allowing for ADU's by right doesn't solve the problem we're trying to solve in my area. it might work in denver, but it's not the same discussion here - it's why painting with a broad legislative policy stroke across an entire state is tricky.

the reality is you have to manage growth to some degree in a place where people have more money than god. it can't be a free-for-all. water, infrastructure, transportation, climate, wildlife, (etc) could never ever satisfy the demand. and like i said above, it wouldn't be you and i in all those units - it'd be the other jeffrey lebowskis - the millionaires.

i realize all that sounds cynical. but ime it's what happens here.

sorry.. to a new town question? heh. probably not here. maybe golden's billionaires could do it, but the 'seed money' req'd to acquire even enough land for a town hall, install all that infrastructure, go through incorporation, incorporate, and fund/bond major projects .. that'd be hard to 'grassroots' fund in a meaningful way, or convince existing owners to vote in. not unpossible, but wow. it's a fun thought experiment for sure

[Toadman]

Latest RE indicators from Redfin.

Daily average mortgage rates have fallen to 6.82%, their lowest level since May. This marks the first time daily rates have dipped below 7% since July. Rates dropped after the Fed brought good news to homebuyers at its December 13 meeting, indicating they’re on a path toward lowering interest rates more and sooner than expected. That’s another piece of evidence that mortgage rates are likely to drop into the mid-6% range in 2024, consistent with Redfin’s housing-market predictions.

Mortgage payments are at their lowest level in eight months. Even before the Fed meeting, mortgage rates had declined substantially from their peak, bringing homebuyers some relief. The median U.S. housing payment is $2,503 as of the four weeks ending December 10, down $233 from October’s record high and its lowest level since April.

Declining costs are bringing homebuyers off the sidelines. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 19% from the three-decade low they dropped to at the start of November. And Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents–is up 3% from a month ago.

Prices and new listings rise. The median U.S. home-sale price is up 4.5% year over year, the biggest increase since October 2022. Prices are rising because demand is outpacing supply. Even though new listings are up 8% year over year–the biggest increase since July 2021–the total number of homes for sale is still down 5%.

[SKIP IN7RO]

Thought exercise…

Given our current propensity to block development and obsession with “managing growth”, and hatred of density, is it possible to build a new city or town in this day and age? Or are we only capable of building suburbs and shopping centers?

Tafkalvs Gulch has a nice ring to it.

[TAFKALVS]

Tafkalvs Gulch has a nice ring to it.

Someone railroad grant me 10,000 acres in the mountains and I’ll build paradise.

[muted reborn]

Someone railroad grant me 10,000 acres in the mountains and I’ll build paradise.

Why do tech bros think they can solve everything?

https://gizmodo.com/michael-moritz-r...-bu-1850780238

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/25/b...smid=url-share

[Supermoon]

Why do tech bros think they can solve everything?

https://gizmodo.com/michael-moritz-r...-bu-1850780238

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/25/b...smid=url-share

No one is more confident than a mediocre white guy.

[rideit]

Someone railroad grant me 10,000 acres in the mountains and I’ll destroy paradise.

FTFY

[CarlMega]

Thought exercise…

Given our current propensity to block development and obsession with “managing growth”, and hatred of density, is it possible to build a new city or town in this day and age? Or are we only capable of building suburbs and shopping centers?

Feels like a good time to bring up the Strong Towns concept vs. endless resource draining sprawl.

[schuss]

Thought exercise…

Given our current propensity to block development and obsession with “managing growth”, and hatred of density, is it possible to build a new city or town in this day and age? Or are we only capable of building suburbs and shopping centers?

I mean, growth has always been restricted when it impacts the "wrong" people. Not like anyone's touched places like pac heights or old money havens. NIMBYism is a longstanding thing, just fewer politicians willing to stand in front of development and say "yes".

[californiagrown]

Why would someone want to build a new city from scratch unless they were a power hungry megalomaniac? There would be sooooo much legwork to do to get the public infrastructure up and running.

Towns wouldnt exist if they had to abide by today's code from the very beginning.

[RootSkier]

I understand what it looks like, but OTOH I would not trust the Montana legislature to get anything right these days. Most of the laws they pass end up being challenged in court and losing.

Jim Goetz has won a lot of very large cases in Montana but he has also turned his firm into a very expensive boutique for extremely rich people, and they have absolutely zero qualms about fucking over everyday people in service to that .0001%.

I really, really wish that the Free Press article included a copy of the complaint. Just absolute journalistic malpractice to not do so these days. Edit: I missed it, here is the actual complaint: https://montanafreepress.org/wp-cont...-Complaint.pdf

[J. Barron DeJong]

https://x.com/maxdubler/status/17371...sR_NcRK2VkCfkg

Need more Austin’s.

[Skistack]

Alot of the markets where rents went bonkers over the last 5 years are / will see rents declining as they struggle to absorb new units.

Real estate will always be a cyclical business.


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[XXX-er]

That ^^ will fuck up a lot of people who thot it would go on forever

I've had the tennant (good guy good tennnat) give me the rent, give notice and tell me BTW rents have gone down and now yours is high and he was right I had to drop 100$ but I wasn'r over extended so I could handle it

[Toadman]

Jim Goetz has won a lot of very large cases in Montana but he has also turned his firm into a very expensive boutique for extremely rich people, and they have absolutely zero qualms about fucking over everyday people in service to that .0001%.

I really, really wish that the Free Press article included a copy of the complaint. Just absolute journalistic malpractice to not do so these days. Edit: I missed it, here is the actual complaint: https://montanafreepress.org/wp-cont...-Complaint.pdf

Way Too F'ing long. Didn't read. But thanks for posting the complaint.

[LegoSkier]

Why do tech bros think they can solve everything?

https://gizmodo.com/michael-moritz-r...-bu-1850780238

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/25/b...smid=url-share

Could be fucked up due to tech bros delusions of grandeur or if they let people who know what they are doing actually be in charge, it could just end up being the Irvine of Northern California.

[yeahman]

Jim Goetz has won a lot of very large cases in Montana but he has also turned his firm into a very expensive boutique for extremely rich people, and they have absolutely zero qualms about fucking over everyday people in service to that .0001%.

I really, really wish that the Free Press article included a copy of the complaint. Just absolute journalistic malpractice to not do so these days. Edit: I missed it, here is the actual complaint: https://montanafreepress.org/wp-cont...-Complaint.pdf

Read a lot of it and agree wholeheartedly with how they slam the Legislature's heavy-handed attempts to control what have historically always been local issues. This has been a pattern with our MAGA legislators. Also like how they call out the morons on the governor's useless affordable housing "task force," which everybody knew was a sham to make it look like they were doing something when they weren't. I don't know these homeowners but I don't trust our state government's top-down approach to issues. The supermajority legislators and Republican administration simply aren't smart enough to tackle complex local issues.

ETA: this is pretty much the same thing I thought when they were passing these clumsy laws in the first place. This lawsuit comes as no surprise.

[RootSkier]

I don't disagree with you about the utter incompetence of the legislature (and the governor, and especially the AG) but I think the mandatory allowance of duplex and larger ADU laws are good, actually. And I say this as someone who owns a house and lives in one of Missoula's most desirable neighborhoods that is zoned almost entirely single-family.

Goetz's claim that single-family zoning is designed to protect the "financial viability" of a home is just a clever way of saying that the purpose of single-family zoning has always been to maintain racial and economic segregation. Personally, I think most "cities" in Montana should do away with single-family zoning entirely, and the fact that places like Missoula and Bozeman have only upzoned "poor" neighborhoods means they cannot be relied on to do the right thing.

I predict this lawsuit is a huge loser.

[yeahman]

Maybe if you couple the zoning change ADU laws with strictly enforced laws against turning the home and the ADU into STRs. If not, it's just another way for "investors" to exploit the real estate market and squeeze more money out of Montana at the expense of neighborhoods where locals actually live. In any case it's not a meaningful solution to the housing crisis IMO.

[mud]