Real Estate Crash thread

[rideit]

Unfortunately, due to land, labor, and building costs, that's what it costs to build almost anything in the county without an insane amount of public subsidy. Which, given the states lack of income tax, no municipality has without a huge transfer tax on wealthy homeowners. Even though it's a blue county, it's a red state, and that birds not gonna fly.
There are a crapload of below market rate units being built right now, we will see how those shake out.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Unfortunately, due to land, labor, and building costs, that's what it costs to build almost anything in the county without an insane amount of public subsidy

I bet if you put pen to paper you'd figure out that it doesn't. But hey, if you've got any contracts that are willing to pay $200/hr. to trimcarpenters on something like $50/sq. ft. me and my buddy from Driggs will be right over.

[byates1]

, where did all the fuckin' money go? A 2/1 for a $1million plus subsidies? That's gotta be over $1K per square foot! I don't think Kevo's painters are working on that project.

To the art trust bro. The art trust. It's incredibly important that the art trust be funded in the billions.

[ghosthop]

Trustafarian workforce housing

Not quite. My wife is too specialized to be looking for a job in Jackson but we could never afford something in a town without it being subsidized like that. 1 percenters in terms of income but it will take us years to break 90 percentile in terms of household wealth. And we have no intentions of that being a majority in real estate. We are working class kids who have done well and have worked hard to be where we are at.

There is entirely too much wealth sloshing around. We are doing our best so our kids aren’t beholden to a corporate fiefdom. I hope my boy can talk about his portfolio on satellites and the asteroid belt one day.

[rideit]

I bet if you put pen to paper you'd figure out that it doesn't. But hey, if you've got any contracts that are willing to pay $200/hr. to trimcarpenters on something like $50/sq. ft. me and my buddy from Driggs will be right over.

The key here with that is land costs.
I guess the actual construction could be cheaper.
But even if it were, the total price at the end of the day probably wouldn’t go down any.
I guarantee that they tried to reign in costs.

[Foggy_Goggles]

For sake of arguing, because it's TGR, $2million / 12 units is $166k per. Is that a fair guess? I mean I thought that affordable should be outside of town to make....ya know...affordable but I guess that's not where the Dr. and Lawyers want to live?

https://www.440wkelly.com/?_ga=2.177...870.1690656365

If you can't build that for $500/sq. you suck...but Shaw kinda does suck. Or look at it another way. Assuming their is no profit, that's a $12millon project. Or buy this place https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...=srp-list-card or is that not nice enough for the "Missing Middle"?

Or this place https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...=srp-list-card

How much is the subsidy? Who's paying? Is there a 24hr bus from Alpine yet?

[rideit]

You definitely know much more about costing than I do, but the fact is that’s it’s absurd here, every which way.
$755k for Virginian Lane Condo…awesome.

[Foggy_Goggles]

I agree with all of that. It's the same everywhere. My bitch is with the execution of "Affordable Housing". The devil is in the details and "So noble...at and cost" crowd gets involved and you end up with something that isn't affordable and provides little social benefit to anyone other than the keep on keepin on powers that be and a handful of residents of the projects.

[east or bust]

Contractors don’t price their builds including land costs. So at the end of the day yes, the land value does drive up the final sale price, but it’s really just a factor of labor prices and finish levels. $1000/sf is probably about average in Jackson given the clientele…. We had a project fall through the cracks with a client that was going to be more in the $1300-1500/sf, the finishes and amenities they were trying to pack in was insane.

For true workforce/affordable housing it can absolutely be done, even here in Jackson, at $500-750/sf. The problem is there’s no money to subsidize the land value. And you ain’t getting marble countertops at that price point.


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[zion zig zag]

$1500 a square foot?
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...=srp-list-card

[Foggy_Goggles]

Property overview
Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom homes, (house and a guest house) presents an incredible opportunity for those seeking a peaceful retreat on 1.21 sprawling acres. With an unfinished basement offering the potential for two additional bedrooms and another full bath in each home, this property is brimming with untapped potential. Short term rentals are allowed.

There is something about that listing that doesn't make sense but a bit nuts either way. Its crazy to me that I almost moved to Drictor circa 2000 for housing affordability and powder but the work prospects were bleak. I moved to Denver instead.

What are some ballpark wages/bid rates for trades in Jackson?

[Foggy_Goggles]

$1300-1500/sf, the finishes and amenities they were trying to pack in was insane.

Been there. It is defiantly an exercise in wasting money. Nice fancy, difficult ways to do everything. Everyone from the customer to the subs are trying to make everything more expensive. Its so stupid. I hate those projects.

[anotherVTskibum]

WFH turned that concept on its head though.

In a lot of places, yes. You still need good Internet for most WFH jobs, so until Starlink became widely available, that was still an issue. I don't know if coverage is universal in the US at this point or not.

[skaredshtles]

In a lot of places, yes. You still need good Internet for most WFH jobs, so until Starlink became widely available, that was still an issue. I don't know if coverage is universal in the US at this point or not.

It is not.

[neckdeep]

$1500 a square foot?
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...=srp-list-card

That's how we do here. Gouge out all you can during the good times and fuck the future.

Just 12 years ago the banks were auctioning off 3000sq.ft. golf course McMansions for $500k

[east or bust]

That's how we do here. Gouge out all you during the good times and fuck the future.

Just 12 years ago the banks were auctioning off 3000sq.ft. golf course McMansions for $500k

Hopefully history repeats.

[skaredshtles]

Hopefully history repeats.

History *always* repeats...

[neckdeep]

For sale: Tetonia, ID. Tiny home. $500,000.



Land not included...

[skaredshtles]

For sale: Tetonia, ID. Tiny home. $500,000.

"Excellent riverfront access."

[Foggy_Goggles]

So awesome. I solace in the fact that it's more fucked somewhere else. Unless you live in Jackson and Aspen then you are either just holding on or looking to be subsidized. But hey, you can be proud that everywhere else sees your model as the future.

[Harry]

https://www.440wkelly.com/?_ga=2.177...870.1690656365

That place has a very EZ commute to The Waxroom.

Just sayin….



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[4matic]

Rental vacancy rate at 5 yr high. Rents down .7% yoy.

[Kevo]

That's how we do here. Gouge out all you can during the good times and fuck the future.

Just 12 years ago the banks were auctioning off 3000sq.ft. golf course McMansions for $500k

Someone told me that there was once 52 foreclosures up for sale in Teton Springs at one time. I was told that at the time the houses were selling in the sub $400k range. Those houses today are all well over $1.2MM.

Meanwhile, the housing stock here is increasing faster than almost anywhere else in the US-

"Wasatch County, Utah, was the fastest-growing county; its housing stock increased by 7.7% between July 1, 2021, and July 1, 2022, followed by Rockwall County, Texas (7.4%), and St. Johns County, Florida (6.6%). Jasper County, South Carolina, and Teton County, Idaho were tied for fourth with 6.4%."

6.4% increase year over year 2021-2022 and I'd imagine it increased at least that much again in 2022-2023. My neighborhood, which was mostly stagnant from 2009 to 2020, has probably doubled it's housing stock since 2020.

I talked to a builder acquaintance recently- he's building 4-5 houses at the moment. He said not a single house is financed. Maybe things are a bit different this time?

[rideit]

We are in a strange era where cash is not actually cash, it's a loan by some other contrivance.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Wanna 'splain that? I'm familiar with cash offer financing. But cash is cash and leverage is leverage.

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