Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[jono]

https://blogs.cdc.gov/niosh-science-...APF)%20of%2010.

tldr/ I spent nearly 4 weeks on a Jury trial in Oct 2020 listening to no less than 4 Industrial Hygenists, 3 Particle Experts, Filtration experts (and 2 maritime ship experts) in an asbestos case against 3M and the precursor to the modern day N95. Many pictures of faces with coal dust streaks around the edge of the mask and much discussion of "pressure drop" that occurs as the mask filter begins to wet out over time spent in the mask and breathing gets more difficult.

Masks fall into general catogories depending on use, and while the fabric/weave of the face covering for an N95 must exceed 95% particle filtration, most of the filters will catch >99% of the particluates largely due to electrostatics, some nearing 99.9%. But the reality is it is the face seal that allows the majority of particles to be inhaled/exhaled, so the N95 type masks are assigned a Protection factor of 10, meaning a 90% reduction in particle inhalation. But at an individual level with many different faces to fit, this could be anywhere between a PF of 5-20+, so yes almost 10-100x less efficient for the mask overall vs the mask material's filtration potential. The chart authors were just using the filtration #'s with 2 people with idealized fit to get a more impressive 2500hrs.

Thanks for that link, that clarified it. They're saying 90% as an assigned estimate for real world use vs. 95% minimum to pass cert (fitted in a controlled environment, not moving around, chewing, etc) and obviously the media then has to be between 95 and 99.9+ since the seal will almost certainly have some leakage. Makes sense.

[jono]

Perhaps on an individual level, but I’m speaking out of line in terms of mask mandates. I guess in the end, the evidence for/against them remains anything but clear. Too many uncontrollable variables.

QFT. People who live data are going to be parsing this for three generations and still the partisan hacks will have opinions.

A couple of the confounders: if mandates work but are a pain and we went them minimized then we'd expect to only use them where/when necessary. If the data matches really well does that mean there's no difference or that they were used judiciously? It's just like masks vs. mandates--if masks work so well that mandates don't increase use then mandates can still be essentially useless.

Too often the abstract writer and the statistician are gonna disagree about what the data shows.

[Trackhead]

Where's this from? Seen it on social media but would like to find for myself.

Probably a damn hoax.....like everything else. Or a generated graph from CDC data page. Tedious to replicate.

Here's the problem with this discussion. Do vegans live longer because of diet, or because they exercise, don't smoke, and aren't fat pigs? Do bacon/egg eaters die early because they watch football, drink beer, smoke, and can't see their dick below their enormous pannus and walk around with a Hemoglobin A1c of 9.8? Is it the diet, or the lifestyle that goes with it?

In areas where mask mandates are in place, is the population more fearful, staying home, vaccinated? In areas where there is no mask mandate, are people going about their daily routine and not giving a fuck, unvaccinated, more symptomatic cases? Do these variables hold value in this discussion? I think they certainly do.

Perhaps the data leans towards a nominal change in cases with mask mandates. I can accept that for face value. What I can't accept is how other geographic/political/behavioral variables play in this discussion. We can't simply say that wearing masks decreases cases, we can only make an observation that in places with mask mandates, cases "might" have been lower for a period of time. What other independent variables are at play?

I believe in "science", but I also believe the answer remains unclear, at best.

[bodywhomper]

The mandates seems more of a social science experiment and place for hypotheses than anything else.

[Trackhead]

The mandates seems more of a social science experiment and place for hypotheses than anything else.

Yup. And instituted by politicians, under pressure from constituents.

Also, with increasing home tests, data will be muddy. In red states (where I live), plenty of my patients refuse covid testing. More muddy waters. This topic is tenuous and nuanced.

[SumJongGuy]

Yup. And instituted by politicians, under pressure from constituents.

Also, with increasing home tests, data will be muddy. In red states (where I live), plenty of my patients refuse covid testing. More muddy waters. This topic is tenuous and nuanced.

They can test them after they're dead then. Death certificate trumps their bullshit obstinance. Hospital capacity trends should be the main thing driving mandates. If the hospitals are keeping up and trends don't threaten that capacity, no more need for the masks. If it's a shitshow and they can't accept emergency patients due to being slammed with COVID patients again.. or about to be.. mask mandates needed again.

[Buzzworthy]

If it's a shitshow and they can't accept emergency patients due to being slammed with COVID patients again.. or about to be.. mask mandates needed again.

Never going to happen again in this country. Mask mandates are dead. Sorry, it’s reality.

[Tri-Ungulate]

Probably a damn hoax.....like everything else. Or a generated graph from CDC data page. Tedious to replicate.

Here's the problem with this discussion...
[…]
I believe in "science", but I also believe the answer remains unclear, at best.

This.

Trackhead is one of the smartest individuals I know and he’s encapsulated the entire thread in this one post.

[SumJongGuy]

Probably a damn hoax.....like everything else. Or a generated graph from CDC data page. Tedious to replicate.

This.

Trackhead is one of the smartest individuals I know and he’s encapsulated the entire thread in this one post.

You do realize they were jut talking about one graph and not the entire pandemic being a possible hoax right?

If not nevermind the 9,900,000+ dead, the hospitals being over run with ambulances stacked up outside ERs and sending critical trauma patients away, nevermind the fucking refrigerator trucks outside for all the additional bodies stacking up way beyond what normal death rates are locally and nationwide.

I sent my wife to one of those hospitals in December of 2020 with COVID My mom died of COVID in January of 2021 . I must have imagined all that.

Totally all a hoax LOL!

[Trackhead]

This.

Trackhead is one of the smartest individuals I know and he’s encapsulated the entire thread in this one post.

I miss you, too. I’ll be in SLC this winter at some point. Let’s go skiing.

[RoooR]

Probably a damn hoax.....like everything else. Or a generated graph from CDC data page. Tedious to replicate.
...
In areas where mask mandates are in place, is the population more fearful, staying home, vaccinated? In areas where there is no mask mandate, are people going about their daily routine and not giving a fuck, unvaccinated, more symptomatic cases? Do these variables hold value in this discussion? I think they certainly do.

Perhaps the data leans towards a nominal change in cases with mask mandates. I can accept that for face value. What I can't accept is how other geographic/political/behavioral variables play in this discussion. We can't simply say that wearing masks decreases cases, we can only make an observation that in places with mask mandates, cases "might" have been lower for a period of time. What other independent variables are at play?

I believe in "science", but I also believe the answer remains unclear, at best.

Well that's the rub with cross sectional analysis. Especially cross sectional with only one variable. I'm with you. Were the mandates effective? Maybe, maybe not. Confidence interval almost certainly includes the null. Were the vaccines effective? With almost 100% certainty.

[RoooR]

If not nevermind the 9,900,000+ dead,

Off by a factor of 10 there bud.

[CarlMega]

Off by a factor of 10 there bud.

I think world-wide 6.2MM is the count. But estimates are higher.

[skiskiskiskiski]

Probably a damn hoax.....like everything else. Or a generated graph from CDC data page. Tedious to replicate.

Here's the problem with this discussion. Do vegans live longer because of diet, or because they exercise, don't smoke, and aren't fat pigs? Do bacon/egg eaters die early because they watch football, drink beer, smoke, and can't see their dick below their enormous pannus and walk around with a Hemoglobin A1c of 9.8? Is it the diet, or the lifestyle that goes with it?

In areas where mask mandates are in place, is the population more fearful, staying home, vaccinated? In areas where there is no mask mandate, are people going about their daily routine and not giving a fuck, unvaccinated, more symptomatic cases? Do these variables hold value in this discussion? I think they certainly do.

Perhaps the data leans towards a nominal change in cases with mask mandates. I can accept that for face value. What I can't accept is how other geographic/political/behavioral variables play in this discussion. We can't simply say that wearing masks decreases cases, we can only make an observation that in places with mask mandates, cases "might" have been lower for a period of time. What other independent variables are at play?

I believe in "science", but I also believe the answer remains unclear, at best.

If masks work, they save lives. Wear a mask, prevent spread, save a life. Yay!

If masks work and you don't wear one potentially spread a deadly virus. Potentially take part in killing someone.

If masks don't work and you wore a mask anyways, you wore a mask.

[bodywhomper]

I thought that this current little conversation was about the effectiveness of mask mandates not the effectiveness of masks. An example, employees removing their masks to eat in a small indoor setting, which was an “allowable” activity under the county mask mandates by me back in Jan/Feb resulted in a majority of staff at one of my grocery stores getting infected.

Similar occurred in the patrol locker/break room at my ski hill from a lunch break.

[skiJ]

through April 21, 2022

> 280,000 new cases for the week

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...nds_dailycases

> 2,100 deaths for the week

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...ds_dailydeaths


' (please) be careful out there... '


skiJ

[SumJongGuy]

Never going to happen again in this country. Mask mandates are dead. Sorry, it’s reality.

Ebola??? Pfft Challenge accepted!! Murika!!!

[skiskiskiskiski]

I thought that this current little conversation was about the effectiveness of mask mandates not the effectiveness of masks. An example, employees removing their masks to eat in a small indoor setting, which was an “allowable” activity under the county mask mandates by me back in Jan/Feb resulted in a majority of staff at one of my grocery stores getting infected.

Similar occurred in the patrol locker/break room at my ski hill from a lunch break.

For me, its about what people can and cannot avoid. That happened at my work place, too as did the asshole that would go to a meeting set a cup of coffee in front of himself, take his mask off and take a sip of coffee every 5 minutes or so.

I never unmask and eat in a breakroom. Only rarely do I go out to eat, although with spring coming and the ability to eat outside I will more.

The thing about lifting the mask mandate is that a lot people who did a pretty good job masking now think they don't have to anyone and they dont understand that the CDC still wants them to, that the risk is going up, etc.

Also, any amount of covid we stop from getting into the air helps. Say you have a highly infectious person with a crappy mask that only cuts his germy spew in half. Its still less covid in the air. Probably 10 people get covid rather than 20.

Not perfect, but better than nothing.

[Trackhead]

Well that's the rub with cross sectional analysis. Especially cross sectional with only one variable. I'm with you. Were the mandates effective? Maybe, maybe not. Confidence interval almost certainly includes the null. Were the vaccines effective? With almost 100% certainty.

Yup.

Some not so surprising CDC data on efficacy of booster. Pretty damn durable protection for immunocompetent. Which makes me wonder why so many low risk are gunning for shot #4. Is it being driven by fear, covid zero, media? Good info in this one for those on the fence about a 4th shot. I’m not getting one….three shots, covid a few months ago. Unless the signal changes.


https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/me...Gelles-508.pdf

A 2% loss in protection for hospitalization in over 50 up to 6 months out.

[oldnew_guy]

Yup.

Some not so surprising CDC data on efficacy of booster. Pretty damn durable protection for immunocompetent. Which makes me wonder why so many low risk are gunning for shot #4. Is it being driven by fear, covid zero, media? Good info in this one for those on the fence about a 4th shot. I’m not getting one….three shots, covid a few months ago. Unless the signal changes.


https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/me...Gelles-508.pdf

A 2% loss in protection for hospitalization in over 50 up to 6 months out.

Personally I am a lot less concerned about being hospitalized versus long CoVID symptoms that impact my ability to work. Secondary to that would be my ability to play how I want.

No interest in getting shot 4 until they tell me I should get it.

[teletech]

Checking in. Still the same ten poster blah blah blahing about masks. Covid hypochondriacs now are on the same level of covid deniers of a year ago. Poor saps your glory days are ending, without masks do you people need a hero badge to show what good people you are. Carry on, always good for a chuckle

[SumJongGuy]

If you're curious about whether or not you're still protected by your last shot/boost go donate blood. Mine came back reactive/positive for antibodies recently. I think I'll just hold off and get the 2nd boost with a flu shot this fall.

[The SnowShow]

If you're curious about whether or not you're still protected by your last shot/boost go donate blood. Mine came back reactive/positive for antibodies recently. I think I'll just hold off and get the 2nd boost with a flu shot this fall.

I didn’t think a normal blood panel would test for antibodies. Did you ask for it?

[SumJongGuy]

I didn’t think a normal blood panel would test for antibodies. Did you ask for it?

Red Cross tests every blood donation for antibodies and sends the results to the donor.. 3rd time for me with that..

[skiJ]

I'm not sure how 84% effectiveness is 2% more effective than 60% effectiveness, but
I thought I could offer comment to the question of whether mask mandates "work" -

in my home region, mask mandates led to mixed results -
the headline in the local newspaper was that the local sheriff would not be enforcing the mask mandate.
People who were determined to not wear a mask did not - claiming a medical or religious exemption.

Whether or not masks helped reduce the spread of covid is a different question -

the graph on the previous page concerns me - and I believe illustrates how lucky we were that omicron was not more pathologic -
1.2M cases daily around January 11, 2022 -
If omicron had the pathology of delta or the original virus without immunity, ,,, ( I am sure those statistics are available ) --

More people wore masks because of the mandate, but compliance was not-great ( probably shadowed vaccination rates )...

as a matter of Policy, I would not claim that the mask mandate was a success.


Good luck. skiJ