Ukraine

[riser4]

I'm hoping the Rooskie convoy stalls and gets picked apart by local Ukrainians. That would be a fitting end. Trapped on a narrow road with no place to go except into the melting swampland. Never to be heard from again.

[ex-powderbroker]

Going full Benny, unless Nukes are in the air there’s no way we are putting a no fly zone in

there’s a video of lukashenko demonstrating his plans to invade ukraine in the next few days because “ukraine fired missiles at belarus that were luckily shot down by russia”. the plans include an incursion of moldova. if four countries are involved and it starts touching the border of the EU, it is easy to see other countries jumping in. can the eu enforce a no fly? anyway, if it’s the eu and russia, we are in.

[Cono Este]

Has he, though? Has he? As long as we're STILL giving the Russians untold millions of $$$ every day via petroleum imports, then I'm not buying it that we've done all we can. It's insane we haven't 100% halted ALL Russian imports already.

Another WTF with Europes pussy footing around is how there have been some convenient little carveouts from the sanctions so Italy can keep exporting Gucci and other luxury good, and Belgium can keep selling diamonds to Russia. Gotta keep them oligicarchs' super model wives happy you know!


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Hey, I’d prefer we make our own, but we can’t just shut off gas heating homes in Europe overnight. I suspect it’s not Biden preventing that. Next winter Putin is fucked.


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[riser4]

there’s a video of lukashenko demonstrating his plans to invade ukraine in the next few days because “ukraine fired missiles at belarus that were luckily shot down by russia”. the plans include an incursion of moldova. if four countries are involved and it starts touching the border of the EU, it is easy to see other countries jumping in. can the eu enforce a no fly? anyway, if it’s the eu and russia, we are in.

Moldova or breakaway Transnistria? And to get to either one you have to go through Ukraine or Romania.

[highangle]

Moldova or breakaway Transnistria? And to get to either one you have to go through Ukraine or Romania.

lol I don't guess Lukasucko mentioned his army is about 2mm away from mutiny and joining the Ukrainians?

[irul&ublo]

Moldova or breakaway Transnistria? And to get to either one you have to go through Ukraine or Romania.

Don’t see going through Romania, being member of NATO

[Falcon3]

I'm hoping the Rooskie convoy stalls and gets picked apart by local Ukrainians. That would be a fitting end. Trapped on a narrow road with no place to go except into the melting swampland. Never to be heard from again.

Indeed, shades of Teutoburg. I’d love to see Putin shouting in the Kremlin “give me back my tank columns!!”

[Mazderati]

Reports of Nord Stream 2 filing for bankruptcy.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...US%20sanctions.


And, RU shutting down the last independent (non-state-owned) media.

https://twitter.com/amanpour/status/...cd17b22a26%2F0

[Tri-Ungulate]

Tri Ungulate loves to play with his drones.
https://theintercept.com/2017/01/30/...ar-old-sister/

Heh. Was that supposed to be some kind of buuurn? LOL. I was answering Benny, you fool.

Or was it just Putin-wannabe whataboutism? What's your fucking point? That Obama is a baaad man?

Go lick the shit off more dictator boot whydoncha.

This. Russias airforce has been an utter failure so far. There is an excellent article floating around the interwebs, but basically it boils down to deconflicting; apparently the IFF systems between the air defence and aerial assets is in such a bad state that combined operations can not be performed safely. It is either or. Add to that the poor condition of the airframes, extremely limited number of PGMs (some intel suggest they have been all used up), poorly trained aircrews (sub.100hrs/yr) etc. Another factor is that Russians know that their infra is susceptible to EW/IT attacks, they dont want to risk (at the current stage) that their own SAM batteries would suddenly start to shoot down their own aircraft due hacking.
One has to realise that the gloves are off in the west; they are supporting Ukr with extraordinary means...that are not visible. Electronic & IT warfare, information shaping, intelligence, target designation etc. Ruskies thought they had the upper hand in this field, now they are shown a different kind of reality.
Well, in few cases they are not actually shown anything as they are jammed so badly.

[...]

This. The Russian Wunderwaffe has been shown to be a paper tiger; "modernised" tanks, SAMs, EW, Air assets.
But these shortcomings pale in comparison to their biggest problems: Logistics performing extremely badly, command is utter shit, intelligence integration is not suited for their (confused) operational strategies at all and finally, their high command has been kept in the dark of the real state of their military capabilities.

Thanks MH, do you think you could dredge up that article you mentioned? I'd be interested.

[dunfree]

The NHL has historically acted as a refuge for Russian players wishing to escape the mother land. It is not the same as it was a long time ago with the most recent player being Geno Malkin's situation, however, I am sure most Russian NHL players have US bank accounts.



This will certainly be the next breaking point. If the US has any involvement in enforcing a no fly zone, it will be the start of WW3.

NHL suspended all business relationships in Russia, and paused all Russian language media. Short of something stupid and counterproductive like evicting Russians ( we should welcome anyone who wants to gtfo) that’s a boycott

[riser4]

Don’t see going through Romania, being member of NATO

Exactly. Big swath of Ukraine to get through for any Belarusian attack on Moldova. I believe there's some Russian assets in Transnistria. But they're sort of isolated. The Russians could get there from the Black Sea. If they go around Odessa.

[Timberridge]

We have to have somewhere to go on sanctions when Russia escalates the situation.

I'm not sure. The Germans surrounded Stalingrad for almost 6 months and that didn't work and the Russians are already used to standing in line for a loaf of bread and potatoes.

You'd have to take away their vodka to make them notice.

[ex-powderbroker]

They'd be going through Ukraine. But since they don't seem to care much about what the world thinks, maybe they claim some sort of provocation against Ruscists in transnitria and may it a two-fer.

[Hood26]

The Kremlin enacted a genocide on Ukraine in 1932-33. The Kremlin is again at war with Ukraine and killing innocents. Is it fair to label this current war a genocide?

[Timberridge]

Yup, TX is absolutely first class. They’re definitely not pushing for O&G subsidies. And your energy grid is top notch, just look at last winter.

Its good on you for lowering your footprint. And I definitely didn’t realize the investment in wind production. But its a bit of a stretch not to pretend that TX govt and corporations aren’t heavily connected to Saudi, RU.

And a huge stretch to pretend that there wouldn’t be massive political upheaval in TX if gas hit $5 per gallon let alone $8 per gallon. Many of your neighbors suck Putin dick. But they don’t suck Benny dick because its too big, even for Texas.

Wow. You Prius drivers are prickly fucks.

What was your previous alias here before this one? Just so we can keep track.

[Mazderati]

Reddit AMA with a Reuters reporter in Kyiv.

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/c...tm_term=t4ebff


The Reddit live news feed is my news jump point for this situation. The info is curated but I still dig if I have any questions.

https://www.reddit.com/live/18hnzysb1elcs

[rideit]

Tiny victories

https://www.iflscience.com/technolog...khead-message/

[fool]

I have a recently retired SF buddy who just got to Poland. Plans to cross and make his way to Kyiv. He already has lots of contacts in the Ukrainian military from training Ukrainian SOF the last couple of years. He isn't a spring chicken (39) but I wouldn't want to line up against him in combat.

Know of a handful of others seriously thinking of following his lead.

Csprings, out of curiosity - and if you feel willing to share - how is he financing it? Just his own dime (and decent military retirement)? His actions are admirable, I'm just curious how it's all working, given there have been a few posts of ex-operators/SOF/etc., joining the fight. Wishing him luck.

[rideit]

Anyone know what Q is saying about all of this? I would love to hear their take for the lulz…

[LongShortLong]

I'm hoping the Rooskie convoy stalls and gets picked apart by local Ukrainians. That would be a fitting end. Trapped on a narrow road with no place to go except into the melting swampland. Never to be heard from again.

Putin's bombing of Kharkiv is likely to produce extreme pressure on democratic governments to do something. That convoy (and others) might discover there's a lot of "local Ukrainians." And the "local Ukrainians" throw "molotovs" from "Ukrainian" A10s and Apaches. Side question - how are the Finns and Swedes at "throwing molotovs"

Diplomatic pressure should be and remain extreme. That said, Putin's ideology needs to end. I'm unconvinced the world can have both Putin and peace.

[abraham]

Yes. And this is the lesson that the Europe forgot in the last 25 years.

The paper tiger has been outed and The Real Tiger (China) is licking its lips, and being clever, is not interrupting its enemy (Russia) making mistake after mistake.

Thanks, I've been watching to see if you'd post in here again. Helps with the signal:noise.

Some of the analysis here is providing the best context to the whole situation I have seen anywhere. Yours was amazing.

Back to dicks...

X2
Ignore Benny, I'd bet meathelmet is one of the more qualified people on here to talk about what's going on.

Unless Hawk wanted to post again[emoji867]

I came across this old article (from 2 weeks ago), while looking at what EW entailed.

They are talking about how the west and ukr are totally unprepared for the sophisticated modern and electronically savvy Russian force.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...raine-00008529

In light of what everyone can clearly see, and Meathead's assessment, it's incredible how far that turned out from reality. It's almost like the Russians got hustled.

This one's come up in previous discussion I've had, the story about prompting the mom to call her son so the Russians could shell him might be more story than fact? I looked for evidence from elsewhere but it's not completely clear to me.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...its-a-big-deal



Also: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ng-radio-virus

Trivial relative to the human toll but it sucks to lose historic architecture.

This very cool folding synagogue was finished recently to mark the 80th anniversary off Babyn yar massacre during the Holocaust. Russia hit the main memorial today with a rocket.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74z65DXdN2o

[BobMc]

Anyone know what Q is saying about all of this? I would love to hear their take for the lulz…

Putin is invading to fight the deep state entrenched in Ukraine, and to destroy the US run bio-labs that are trying to make the next covid variant. I'm not kidding, an idiot friend of mine is going on and on about it on FB.

[Thaleia]

Anyone know what Q is saying about all of this? I would love to hear their take for the lulz…

Tune in to fox to find out

[ex-powderbroker]

Putin is invading to fight the deep state entrenched in Ukraine, and to destroy the US run bio-labs that are trying to make the next covid variant. I'm not kidding, an idiot friend of mine is going on and on about it on FB.

“Ukraine was secretly manufacturing covid and Putin is marching in to end bio-terrorism and push back on the wef great reset.”

[Meathelmet]

Heh. Was that supposed to be some kind of buuurn? LOL. I was answering Benny, you fool.

Or was it just Putin-wannabe whataboutism? What's your fucking point? That Obama is a baaad man?

Go lick the shit off more dictator boot whydoncha.



Thanks MH, do you think you could dredge up that article you mentioned? I'd be interested.

Found only one, but I know there are two similar articles, will try to find them from the archives...

https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...sian-air-force

Another article about the logistics, with few links: https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/fe...rmy-logistics/
EW: https://www.bellingcat.com/resources...radar-systems/

There are a lot of stuff around in various forums/articles/publications, but translating from different languages takes its time and can be inaccurate so will not bother with that.