Ukraine

[toast2266]

There's a 17 mile long convoy of BMPs and self-propelled artillery pieces at the gates of Kyiv. What the fuck do you think he's going to do?

Yeah, I'm not really wondering about the short term. Pretty clearly the war will escalate and Kyiv will get hammered.

But in the mid to long(er) term, what does Putin do? So let's say a month from now, Russia has occupied substantial portions of Ukraine and the fighting has died down a bit. What then? The situation just seems untenable for Russia.

[highangle]

Yeah, Kyiv is about to be pounded.

It's fun to fantasize what that convoy would look like if they were fighting America.

[ötzi]

Chechens wish they stayed home like they should have: https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukrain...r-kyiv-report/

Turks just closed the straits to warships.

[SumJongGuy]

There's a 17 mile long convoy of BMPs and self-propelled artillery pieces at the gates of Kyiv. What the fuck do you think he's going to do?

Man if only there really were Jewish Space Lasers.. Blowing that shit up from space before they could launch them at Kyiv would be EPIC!

Mad respect for the people of Ukraine staying to fight Goliath knowing their odds are not great.

Hope the international community continues to fuck Putin every way possible

[Mazderati]

But in the mid to long(er) term, what does Putin do? So let's say a month from now, Russia has occupied substantial portions of Ukraine and the fighting has died down a bit. What then? The situation just seems untenable for Russia.

Yeah, that's why I am thinking UA is almost destined to become a military outpost for RU. Seems impossible for them to leave and maintain influence.

It's fun to fantasize what that convoy would look like if they were fighting America.

17 miles of molten slag?

[highangle]

Yeah, I'm not really wondering about the short term. Pretty clearly the war will escalate and Kyiv will get hammered.

But in the mid to long(er) term, what does Putin do? So let's say a month from now, Russia has occupied substantial portions of Ukraine and the fighting has died down a bit. What then? The situation just seems untenable for Russia.

About halfway through the levelling of Kyiv, Europe will have seen enough to put a stop to it, one way or another.

You keep threatening a guy who fights 3 weight classes above you, and you'll end up getting your ass beat.

[MTT]

There's a 17 mile long convoy of BMPs and self-propelled artillery pieces at the gates of Kyiv. What the fuck do you think he's going to do?

I saw the video of the vehicles lined up for miles. I’m sure the Ukrainians see them also. I sure would like to see the video of them blowing the shit out of them. Perfect time for some serious carnage

[ötzi]

One thing about convoys in urban areas is it doesn't take too much damage at the front to stop them in their tracks. And once they are stopped they are targets.

[highangle]

17 miles of molten slag?

Enough to make a statue of Hero Zelensky so gigantic the shadow would fall on Moscow every evening.

[The AD]

You'd think the Soviet's/Russian's experience in both Afghanistan and Chechnya would have influenced Putin's decision making, but I guess there's no stopping someone bent on domination. You can never have too much land or too much money.

[MTT]

One thing about convoys in urban areas is it doesn't take too much damage at the front to stop them in their tracks. And once they are stopped they are targets.

There not in an urban area when the photos were taken. You think they will stage and make it into the city unscathed?

It looks like a force designed to occupy a large metropolitan area not attack one under fire

[snapt]

Y’all got some short memories. It would look like this.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death

[rideit]

So what's Putin's move at this point?

If he caves and does some sort of measured pull back, it'll be seen as a defeat. And aside from him not seeming like the kind of guy that would willingly capitulate, it also seems like a defeat would effectively destroy his power in Russia (or maybe not? I dunno - I'm no Russia expert.).

But if he pushes onward and achieves some level of success that he can characterize as a victory, he's still cratered the Russian economy. And now with countries like Switzerland jumping on board with sanctions, it seems pretty clear that Russia will have a very tough time weathering the situation. Sure, once the immediate situation has blown over, countries like China will prop up their economy to some extent, but it seems like Putin miscalculated the level and the extent of the sanctions that would be imposed.

So what's Putin's play here? Seems like he's backed himself into a corner, and I can't imagine that bodes well for anyone. While the Ukraine situation is horrible, I'm wondering if Putin starts thrashing and turns a locally terrible situation into a globally terrible situation.

“He fucked around, and is finding out”

[highangle]

One thing about convoys in urban areas is it doesn't take too much damage at the front to stop them in their tracks. And once they are stopped they are targets.

They are child's play to an A-10 no matter what they do. Only thing that might protect them is a shitload of manpads and some sort of Phalanx-type cannons, which, as soon as they fired they'd be tagged by Rivet Joint and taken out with a JDAM from 20,000 feet. Same thing with any kind of radar-guided SAM that might be hanging around.

[The AD]

They are child's play to an A-10 no matter what they do.

Right, presumably Russia is pretty confident in their air superiority otherwise they're sitting ducks.

[dunfree]

[QUOTE=Mazderati;6557677]Yeah, that's why I am thinking UA is almost destined to become a military outpost for RU. Seems impossible for them to leave and maintain influence.[\QUOTE]

Russia couldn’t afford that before hand - Ukraine is 30million people to pacify and is less able too now between sanctions and shelling the shit out of their ostensible reason to be there.

[dunfree]

Right, presumably Russia is pretty confident in their air superiority otherwise they're sitting ducks.

Ukraine blew up a train with a drone, not sure if it’s an air superiority issue or why

[rideit]

Found elsewhere:


Gary Brecher
6 hrs ·
Michael Kofman, who's been good at predicting the course of the Ukraine war so far, says "Outside of the fighting NW of Kyiv we have a lot of smaller detachments, tanks, IFVs, often recon or VDV units pressing down roads & into cities. Often small formations outrunning logistics, without support, or letting support getting ambushed - its a mess."
Clearly, sending armor into hostile territory without support makes no sense now, especially against a force that has the best armed drones available. Every recent war has shown that armor is vulnerable to drone strikes. Sending thin-skinned APCs like the BTR series into unknown towns when you know the people have ATGMs and drone support is the kind of move you can only explain as inertia. Soviet forces specialized in APCs; the Bradley was part of the US's 1970s drive to reverse-engineer dreaded soviet weapons. It didn't work very well, but neither did those weapons, as ATGMs got cheaper and more portable. Maybe the notion of armored advance at speed, pushing into enemy territory before they can regroup, is too deep in the Russian military tradition to be stopped until a lot of losses have registered. Drones dominated in Nagorno-Karabakh 2, in Tigray/Ethiopia (especially the recent fighting.)
Comparing drones to APCs as recon/attack vehicles, there's a very basic difference. Fighting by drone is as natural to contemporary kids as fighting from horseback to a Mongol. The best part is, when you-the-player die, you come back to life, get a Coke, start another game. When you-the-player are driving an APC, you die and you're dead. And foolishly dead too, driving half-blind down streets you don't know when it all just goes black. This has to be a demoralizing war for the crews.
It doesn't make sense, has the feel of one of those wars meant to send a gesture. They never go well.“

[ex-powderbroker]

Yeah, that's why I am thinking UA is almost destined to become a military outpost for RU.

"it's hard to predict the future because it hasn't happened yet."

[summit]

That mechanized column is a convenient gun barrel leveled at Ukraine's temple as they negotiate with the Ruskies.

It's fun to fantasize what that convoy would look like if they were fighting America.

Like Kuwait Hwy 80 about 31 years ago today.

I wouldn't call it a fun fantasy, but it would be incredibly desirable to think of that Russ equipment smoldering instead of murdering the civ pop of Kyiv

[huckbucket]

They are child's play to an A-10 no matter what they do. Only thing that might protect them is a shitload of manpads and some sort of Phalanx-type cannons, which, as soon as they fired they'd be tagged by Rivet Joint and taken out with a JDAM from 20,000 feet. Same thing with any kind of radar-guided SAM that might be hanging around.

Can I get you some kleenex and lotion?

[::: :::]

Can I get you some kleenex and lotion?

maybe a new keyboard?
...seems like he's past climax

[summit]

Why Russia Will Lose - A fascinating analysis

"Why Russia will lose this war?

Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is?

I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals"

[highangle]

Can I get you some kleenex and lotion?

You can get me some ammo, if you want to do something. Those machines are sent there to kill and project the politics of someone who's looking very much like a madman lately.
I'd love to see every single one shredded and their dismounts decimated and sent home on foot.

Any more questions?

[hatchgreenchile]

^^Paging an AC-130 gunship to the white courtesy phone…