To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[altasnob]

The 1 out of 5 and 1 and out of 4 ratio Trevor Bedford uses was specific to Omicron. From his thread he says this:

"Historically, I have assumed that around 30% of infections in the US are reported as cases. This number was derived from seroprevalence and modeling estimates from sites like (no longer updated) https://covid19-projections.com"

"However, the single best study I'm aware of for estimating reporting rate is the ongoing @ONS study in the UK that mails swabs to a fraction of households regardless of symptom status (https://ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/methodologie/covid19infectionsurveypilotmethodsandfurtherinform ation)"

So for the entire pandemic, lets use 30% and say that only 30% of infections are actually recorded. We have 72 million confirmed today. That would mean, in reality, 240 million have had COVID, or about 73% of the US. Note that 72 million includes reinfections (not sure how many), so let's reduce that 73% a bit. I think it is completely plausible that with 23% of the US having confirmed COVID cases, when you add in all the asymptomatic, and the symptomatic that just didn't bother to get a test, 70% of the US has had COVID.

Everyone keeps saying I said COVID was over. I said over for six months. After that, no one knows. But I have read that when Delta was running rampant, scientist expected the next dominant variation of COVID to come from Delta. Omicron did not and came completely out of left field. It's unlikely that lighting strikes twice so while no guarantees, it is likely future variants will come from a variant society already has some immunity from (either natural infection or vaccine immunity).

[wooley12]

It's not trolling. The true number of COVID infections in the US is an incredibly important detail. And one that I believe mainstream media is ignoring, as is a lot of our government. I'd honestly love to hear from someone smart who thinks Trevor Beford is wrong and why.

"I'm not drunk" said every drunk I've ever met.

[Muggydude]

I’m a big data/statistics guy. For anyone interested at looking at actual transparent/raw numbers and data (CDC doesn’t really report stats like this, only adjusted ratios) the UK does a pretty good job with their weekly reports.

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...llance-reports

I’m not really sure what restrictions on unvaccinated people there are over there (don’t seem to be many from my understanding), but it is interesting that it appears that boosted, vaccinated people are more likely to catch Covid (2x) for pretty much every age group (anyone over 30). I’m looking at incidence rates of infection per 100,000 people (who are either vaccinated or unvaccinated). This is based on crude data alone.

For the week 2 reports and prior, anyone over age 18 who was vaccinated with 2 doses were 2x more likely to catch Covid. These numbers are pretty much Omicron exclusive it looks like.

Perhaps that can be chalked up to behavioral differences? At this point in time though I think most people who aren’t vaccinated likely don’t care too much about the risk and are not taking many (if any) extra precautions. Although travel to the EU being restricted for non vaccinated could explain some of it (people traveling more likely to catch Covid). The footnotes also give some other logical explanations - I.e. people who are high risk in the first place being more likely to have gotten vaccinated. Although I think for pure case numbers, unvaccinated people may be more likely to get tested? And vaccinated more likely to chalk symptoms up to a common cold, or be entirely asymptomatic and therefore not counted as a case. Or the fact that unvaccinated people are more likely to have had a prior infection and some natural immunity, which would drive rates lower.

It’s questions/confounding variables like those that make data interpretation very difficult and coming to conclusions ~impossible without more rigorous data information to cross compare.

The data does show that vaccination/boosted significantly reduces the chances of being hospitalized or dying from Covid (~3-6x less likely depending on age group) at the very least.

Page 34-38 of the Week 4 report has the best tables to look at. They switched from considering two doses as fully vaccinated in those tables for the week two report and prior, to three doses, from week 3 onwards.

There’s a lot of other interesting data in those reports about seroprevalence and other things too.

As an anecdotal report, I know a ton of friends (mostly in their 20s, but some older folks as well) who are vaccinated or vaccinated + boosted who have gotten Covid in the past two months. Everyone has been fine though, just a bad cold pretty much.

[LongShortLong]

It did take about 4 times as many infections to kill at the same rate as last year.

For the flu comparers, so far in 2022, covid is already 11x more deadly than a whole flu year and we have 11 months to go. Last summer when we tried to declare covid over, covid deaths were at a pandemic minimum. Even then, a single month of June/July covid topped 2019's flu. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/flu.htm

note: I did not dig into the data to verify flu and covid deaths are defined/measured equivalently. Won't be enough to make covid close to flu.

[bennymac]

Yeah but what if you’re tired and can’t travel to your vacation of choice - how does that adjust that flu comparison?

[k2skier112]

altasnob, single and childless...checks out

[TNKen]

Lost another of my pool-shooting friends yesterday. Found on the floor of her house in respiratory failure. Vaxxed and boosted. 43 years old. Pulled the plug yesterday.

So far, out of a crew of about 150, that makes number 5.

Was sitting around our patrol table early Sunday morning around 1:30 with 18 of us drinking brown water. Out of 18, all vaccinated and boosted. All but 5 of us had had it. Bourbon apparently does not enhance immunity or vaccines or boosters. Just an observation.

[The AD]

Damn, Ken, that's rough. Sorry to hear about your friend.

[ticketchecker]

Shingle shot #1 this morning, not awesome but not horrible. Snow tomorrow night so this better not linger


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[LongShortLong]

I’m a big data/statistics guy. For anyone interested at looking at actual transparent/raw numbers and data (CDC doesn’t really report stats like this, only adjusted ratios) the UK does a pretty good job with their weekly reports.

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...llance-reports

I’m not really sure what restrictions on unvaccinated people there are over there (don’t seem to be many from my understanding), but it is interesting that it appears that boosted, vaccinated people are more likely to catch Covid (2x) for pretty much every age group (anyone over 30). I’m looking at incidence rates of infection per 100,000 people (who are either vaccinated or unvaccinated). This is based on crude data alone.

For the week 2 reports and prior, anyone over age 18 who was vaccinated with 2 doses were 2x more likely to catch Covid. These numbers are pretty much Omicron exclusive it looks like.

Perhaps that can be chalked up to behavioral differences? At this point in time though I think most people who aren’t vaccinated likely don’t care too much about the risk and are not taking many (if any) extra precautions. Although travel to the EU being restricted for non vaccinated could explain some of it (people traveling more likely to catch Covid). The footnotes also give some other logical explanations - I.e. people who are high risk in the first place being more likely to have gotten vaccinated. Although I think for pure case numbers, unvaccinated people may be more likely to get tested? And vaccinated more likely to chalk symptoms up to a common cold, or be entirely asymptomatic and therefore not counted as a case. Or the fact that unvaccinated people are more likely to have had a prior infection and some natural immunity, which would drive rates lower.

It’s questions/confounding variables like those that make data interpretation very difficult and coming to conclusions ~impossible without more rigorous data information to cross compare.

Some (vague) answers are in the footnotes on Table 13 pg 47. There's also table 2 vaccine effectiveness where they control for those factors.

The tables showing high seroprevalence combined with high case rates do not seem promising for herd immunity.

[LongShortLong]

NZ just announced they’re popping their borders in a few weeks to vaccinated NZ citizens, followed by vaccinated intl students, skilled workers and backpackers from March onwards. Vaccinated Aussies will have to wait until July, and vaccinated tourists from the rest of the world are allowed in from Oct.

So if you want to get into NZ this coming winter, thems yer options.

Do skiers count as backpackers or tourists? And how does a backpacker differ from a tourist? Asking for Benny, he might like the Southern Alps.

[bennymac]

Latest video making its way through social media

[NakedShorts]

Only slightly related...

Did BLM actually accomplish all of their goals. I have not heard a peep since Trump lost?

They must have right....

[bennymac]

Only slightly related...

Did BLM actually accomplish all of their goals. I have not heard a peep since Trump lost?

They must have right....

“Speaking of whatever it was you guys were talking about…”

[SumJongGuy]

Only slightly related...

Did BLM actually accomplish all of their goals. I have not heard a peep since Trump lost?

They must have right....

There are at least four murdering cop/ex cop/wannabe cop crackers sitting in jail that probably would be free today without the awareness BLM brings to that kind of bullshit.

[old goat]

So you too are one of these people with their heads in the sand who refuses to believe over 40% of the US will have had COVID in 2 weeks? I'm repeating this claim because I am trying to bait you all to try to explain how I am wrong about that. So far, crickets.

While you're busy predicting the future why don't you tell me something I can use, like who's going to win the Super Bowl, so I can put some serious money on a sure thing?

[Kinnikinnick]

Bahh

I’m ignoring Altaslob

No, not that way. I just refuse to read his endless gibberish.


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[KQ]

Vaccines that keep you healthy aren't sexy - that must be where they went wrong. Need better marketing cuz people will do anything for looks:

Are Tanning Nasal Sprays Safe? Doctors Warn Against This TikTok Trend

For anyone whose goal is to maintain a year-round glow, winter has kickstarted a laser focus on self-tanning routines. The latest trend related to achieving a faux glow? Tanning nasal sprays — that is, spraying a tanning solution up the nose in order to get a “tan from within” (not just inside your nostrils).

Yes, you read that correctly.

Made popular by TikTok, the trend is garnering attention from beauty buffs and health experts alike — but not necessarily in a positive way. These formulas are made with unregulated substances and have experts questioning their legitimacy and health consequences.

[RootSkier]

I would be extremely curious to know, just from the people posting on this thread, how many of their households have had covid, as confirmed by rapid antigen tests, but they never bothered to report it to their doctor or local health dept.

I know that our house falls into that category. I also know a TON of other friends locally (MT) who are in the same boat. I also find it curious how I tested positive for 8+ days but nobody else in my fully vaxxed and boosted house ever tested positive, even though we were doing surveillance testing at that point. Either they didn't get it, or they were asymptomatic and I got it from one of them.

I am also guessing that the numbers of UNvaccinated people who had covid and never reported it is even higher, because at this point, those are mostly science deniers who wouldn't even take a home antigen test.

[altasnob]

While you're busy predicting the future why don't you tell me something I can use, like who's going to win the Super Bowl, so I can put some serious money on a sure thing?

Bengals. Matthew Stafford's wife complained about lock downs so Fauci and his goons will make sure he loses. You're welcome.

[oldnew_guy]

I would be extremely curious to know, just from the people posting on this thread, how many of their households have had covid, as confirmed by rapid antigen tests, but they never bothered to report it to their doctor or local health dept.

I know that our house falls into that category. I also know a TON of other friends locally (MT) who are in the same boat. I also find it curious how I tested positive for 8+ days but nobody else in my fully vaxxed and boosted house ever tested positive, even though we were doing surveillance testing at that point. Either they didn't get it, or they were asymptomatic and I got it from one of them.

I am also guessing that the numbers of UNvaccinated people who had covid and never reported it is even higher, because at this point, those are mostly science deniers who wouldn't even take a home antigen test.

I haven’t had a positive home rapid test, but since I grew up in the days of pre-existing conditions there is no way I’m volunteering to report data that can be used against me in the future.

[hutash]

Vaccines that keep you healthy aren't sexy - that must be where they went wrong. Need better marketing cuz people will do anything for looks:

Are Tanning Nasal Sprays Safe? Doctors Warn Against This TikTok Trend

For anyone whose goal is to maintain a year-round glow, winter has kickstarted a laser focus on self-tanning routines. The latest trend related to achieving a faux glow? Tanning nasal sprays — that is, spraying a tanning solution up the nose in order to get a “tan from within” (not just inside your nostrils).

Yes, you read that correctly.

Made popular by TikTok, the trend is garnering attention from beauty buffs and health experts alike — but not necessarily in a positive way. These formulas are made with unregulated substances and have experts questioning their legitimacy and health consequences.

It's not mandated, so it must be safe.

[bennymac]

Come to think of it I do remember a guy who is a fan of self tanning asking if there was a way to get UV light “inside the body” - he said he was gonna have his people look into that

[k2skier112]

State trooper who told off Inslee over vaccine mandate dies from COVID

Read more at: https://www.thenewstribune.com/news/...#storylink=cpy

gotta luv karma

[bennymac]