Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[stalefish3169]

It’s optics. None of these guys are getting rich off annual trades in index funds.

Speaking of optics, do you think there are any conflicts of interest in the crypto space?

Let's be real. FOMC members have been getting richer from printing cantillionaire cash and pumping their own assets, while the middle and lower class get devastated by inflation. Therefore the plebs have resorted to buying DOGE and SHIB lottery tickets as what they see as their only option.

Of course there are conflicts of interest in crypto. But in many respects, I think distributed ledgers are preferable to corrupt politicians and central bankers.

[LeeLau]

Polygon going for the ZKRollup so it can settle on Ethereum Layer 2. Finally

[LeeLau]

Good luck with that.

It's entirely possible. Crypto is binary outcome.

[MakersTeleMark]

Polygon going for the ZKRollup so it can settle on Ethereum Layer 2. Finally

Has optimism even rolled out on eth yet? Talk about a long time.

[LeeLau]

Has optimism even rolled out on eth yet? Talk about a long time.

Not that I know of. Sidecoins, rollups, siloed protocols.... it's things like this that constantly remind me that "Web 3.0" is so very much in its infancy. Tomorrow I have to fund Shakepay, send Eth to Binance, bridge to Polygon to buy Matic, then convert to USDT and fund Metamask, then buy KlimaDAO, then stake it.

ahhhh DeFi. It's like doing my first ever Redhat Linux install

[shroom]

Let's be real. FOMC members have been getting richer from printing cantillionaire cash and pumping their own assets, while the middle and lower class get devastated by inflation. Therefore the plebs have resorted to buying DOGE and SHIB lottery tickets as what they see as their only option.

Of course there are conflicts of interest in crypto. But in many respects, I think distributed ledgers are preferable to corrupt politicians and central bankers.

so let’s squeeze energy too! plebs don’t need that resource

they didn’t need the stock market either

[shera]

ahhhh DeFi. It's like doing my first ever Redhat Linux install

Except linux is free

In other news, Sergey has spoken! About staking! (link price not affected, so far)
https://twitter.com/SergeyNazarov/st...50397343522820

[Bunion 2020]

Bottom line is that they shouldn't even be trading in the first place. At least they are maybe taking a step in the right direction.

In this respect we agree. Neither they nor members of Congress should be able to trade using any information they happen across in the scope of their service.

But let's blame the kids, I guess.

That was a really odd and defensive comment since nowhere in that quote is there anything remotely akin to blaming anyone.

It's entirely possible. Crypto is binary outcome.

No doubt that there will be winners in this market, some in a big way. There will also be losers. Reality says more and bigger than the winners.

[jono]

No doubt that there will be winners in this market, some in a big way. There will also be losers. Reality says more and bigger than the winners.

It's almost like you think this is a negative sum game or something.

[LeeLau]

It's almost like you think this is a negative sum game or something.

Of course. It's a ponzi game. Not a Ponzi Scheme to be clear.

[Bunion 2020]

Of course. It's a ponzi game. Not a Ponzi Scheme to be clear.

That is one of the better explanations of speculative manias I have read. Kudos.

[shera]

Saifedean and PlanB, veritable titans, podcasting:
The resilience of stock-to-flow with PlanB - https://saifedean.com/podcast/93-the...ow-with-planb/

[365wp]

Not that I know of. Sidecoins, rollups, siloed protocols.... it's things like this that constantly remind me that "Web 3.0" is so very much in its infancy. Tomorrow I have to fund Shakepay, send Eth to Binance, bridge to Polygon to buy Matic, then convert to USDT and fund Metamask, then buy KlimaDAO, then stake it.

ahhhh DeFi. It's like doing my first ever Redhat Linux install

Truth…the first Ethernet card I bought came with source for a driver I had to compile to use the card. “Ahhh, that’s why it was cheaper than the brand names.” Have been looking at the source for BTC and last night the BitTorrent DHT and it feels familiar.

[LeeLau]

That is one of the better explanations of speculative manias I have read. Kudos.

I thought I'd expand on this. Early finance readings would say that Fed money printing was also a Ponzi Game but played over generations and the winners being the current and next generation but the lovers potentially being the future generation UNLESS one could (gradually) inflate money back so that future payments would) gradually become less and less meaningful. Obviously a dangerous macro game to play.

edit to add a classic article https://www.jstor.org/stable/2526789

If one is to extend that to crypto ( and I think its a stretch), then crypto and Web 3.0 and the various shifts it will trigger are more likely than other Ponzi games to persist over time and have more amplitude of money making (and conversely money destruction) potential. Viewed from the lens of Web 1.0 there are lots of lottery tickets. The payouts are bigger. The losses are distributed over a wider population because there are more participants.

Viewed in this context crypto YOLOs are logical

[jono]

Viewed in this context crypto YOLOs are logical

Does this context preclude:

There will also be losers. Reality says more and bigger than the winners.

? Or do you just mean it's logical that people will gamble even when the odds are against them?

[LeeLau]

Does this context preclude:



? Or do you just mean it's logical that people will gamble even when the odds are against them?

People will gamble even when the odds are against them. People think they'll be the winners and that others will lose. Sampling numbers is difficult due to survivorship bias.

Kahneman and Tversky won a deserved Nobel prize for outlining the reasons.

[jono]

Ok, so why gamble on BTC instead of something else? Does the fact that the biggest negatives are externalities make the odds seem better?

It sounds like there's a pretty strong sentiment that BTC will survive the longest because it was the first to solve all the blockchain problems, but it also created the environmental problem. Why shouldn't the first one to solve that get just as much legitimacy? Particularly among the younger folks who stand to inherit a bigger share of that particular externality?

[Bunion 2020]

People will gamble even when the odds are against them. People think they'll be the winners and that others will lose. Sampling numbers is difficult due to survivorship bias.

Powerball being a great example or just about any lottery or Casino games.

Speculating on Crypto or day trading stocks at least there is no House that has odds in their favor instead it will be the other participants that will take a loss, right? Cause for a seller to make money there has to be a buyer convinced what the seller is selling will move either up or down.

[LeeLau]

Ok, so why gamble on BTC instead of something else? Does the fact that the biggest negatives are externalities make the odds seem better?

It sounds like there's a pretty strong sentiment that BTC will survive the longest because it was the first to solve all the blockchain problems, but it also created the environmental problem. Why shouldn't the first one to solve that get just as much legitimacy? Particularly among the younger folks who stand to inherit a bigger share of that particular externality?

I already stated my reasons. Others have theirs

1st mover advantage. Debasement of USD/TIPS as my alternate. Laws of supply/demand in favour. Ability in Canada to hold it in registered plan Tax deferred thus massive capital gains advantage.

[LeeLau]

Speculating on Crypto or day trading stocks at least there is no House that has odds in their favor instead it will be the other participants that will take a loss, right? Cause for a seller to make money there has to be a buyer convinced what the seller is selling will move either up or down.

All correct. Plus with crypto there is the ability for nimble speculators to "yield farm" ie move from token to token to obtain yield thus offloading bags fairly quickly to latecomers who may or may not become bagholders depending on how the tokens do.

Ie better odds, low entry barriers, potential asymptotically large gains ( for crypto as opposed to stocks)

[MakersTeleMark]

Not that I know of. Sidecoins, rollups, siloed protocols.... it's things like this that constantly remind me that "Web 3.0" is so very much in its infancy. Tomorrow I have to fund Shakepay, send Eth to Binance, bridge to Polygon to buy Matic, then convert to USDT and fund Metamask, then buy KlimaDAO, then stake it.

ahhhh DeFi. It's like doing my first ever Redhat Linux install

Why not just by USDT directly on any fiat onramp?

You want some cray defi shit, this guy has it on lock:

https://www.youtube.com/c/DefiCryptoToday

[jono]

I already stated my reasons. Others have theirs

1st mover advantage. Debasement of USD/TIPS as my alternate. Laws of supply/demand in favour. Ability in Canada to hold it in registered plan Tax deferred thus massive capital gains advantage.

Yeah, I caught your reasons earlier, and the argument of lesser ponzi makes some sense, I'm just trying to understand why it stops at BTC specifically for so many people. Is that a rational argument for security at the cost of environmental disaster, or just sentiment?

ETA: ponzi game is my new vocab for the week

[shera]

I am grateful for bitcoin, truly. It has changed my life and I hope and expect it will do the same for people all around the world.

[shroom]

‘i got mine so i won’t critically examine the process’

america in a nutshell

i never bought bitcoin 10+ years ago because (i didn’t need drugs and) it was apparent it had become a fake tech advertising gold rush which just means those lagging in tech understanding/access would be the new plebs. the friction is still way too high

that’s a new version of the same, not a revolution

NFT self-flagellation highlights our current state of detractive tech development in a perfect way

[LeeLau]

Why not just by USDT directly on any fiat onramp?

TBH that was a bit of a ramble. There's more liquidity in the KLIMA/USDT pair than the KLIMA/Matic pair which I was looking to USDT. I'm inclined to buy and hodl MATIC (as opposed to USDT) so I may simply do the txn in MATIC and accept the slippage. I'd have to look at conversion fees and take that all into account.

Yeah, I caught your reasons earlier, and the argument of lesser ponzi makes some sense, I'm just trying to understand why it stops at BTC specifically for so many people. Is that a rational argument for security at the cost of environmental disaster, or just sentiment?

Again; for me, BTC was my first entry to crypto. It took me a while to get past my reservations which included the undeniable environmental impact. However because my cost base for BTC is so low there's substantial inertia in rotating to other cryptocurrencies. If/when I do liquidate my BTC I'd rotate to things that are more ESG - friendly; of which there are many choices. Partly that would be personal ethics, partly that would be because I feel that many consumers look askance at BTC's impact. However, I have no idea at what point I would liquidate.

I suspect many simply hold their nose and accept the stench. I know I do and reconcile it by biking everywhere possible, having no kids, recycling etc etc.