To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[riser4]

SkiJ appreciate you man. I signed my posts here when I first showed up because that is what I did at other forums. Someone pointed it out to me so I stopped.

Nothing wrong with it per say just kind of screws with the flow when scrolling posts. Kind of like bar up or bar down. At Chestnut it is usually bar up. Here nobody signs posts.

I think you'd get less of a ribbing about your formatting if you just stop signing your posts.

I also try to limit my endless run on sentences and epic paragraphs just to please these assholes.

Anyway carry on and please keep posting either way.

I hadn't thought about how significant signing or not signing a post is to the flow. What you said WRT.

[teletech]

On a small sample of my extended family. Working at dads house. 4 or us altogether. Each part of a separate household. Dad develops cough thursday, he smoked a tool thought he breathed in smoke. All of us develop symptoms 3 to 4 days later. Dad takes 1st test, positive. Rest of extended family takes test. The 4 working together all test positive. Rest of family negative. Within next week all develop symptom except for 4. Eventually 13 of 15 positive on pcr, 2 asymptomatic. The rest have symptoms ranging from fever, to scratchy throat, to puking all day. Kids are not vaccinated adults are. Didn’t seem to make a difference of vaccination status if you get it or not.

[TBS]

^^^well, who can argue with that insightful analysis…

[Adolf Allerbush]

On a small sample of my extended family. Working at dads house. 4 or us altogether. Each part of a separate household. Dad develops cough thursday, he smoked a tool thought he breathed in smoke. All of us develop symptoms 3 to 4 days later. Dad takes 1st test, positive. Rest of extended family takes test. The 4 working together all test positive. Rest of family negative. Within next week all develop symptom except for 4. Eventually 13 of 15 positive on pcr, 2 asymptomatic. The rest have symptoms ranging from fever, to scratchy throat, to puking all day. Kids are not vaccinated adults are. Didn’t seem to make a difference of vaccination status if you get it or not.

Didn't end up with long-haul, in a hospital, in the ICU on a vent, or dead, so I say the vaccine seems to be working in this example.

[skiJ]

teletech raises some interesting ideas -
when it was announced in July that the Delta variant was 40% (forty) more transmissible than Alpha, my thought was, ' this is going to change things '
now there are reports from the UK of a new variant - AY.4.2. - that is reported to be 10% - 15% more transmissible than Delta.

Hyderabad is a city of 6.5Million in India. I have not been there, but my understanding is conditions in the cities of India with huge populations are very different than North America.
the article makes some reference to it, but I believe it may be unclear to some.

The Guardian article states they are seeing waning immunity as early as three month after vaccination.
this is different than the information cited last month ( though it may actually have been in September ), which claimed immunity waned after six months, though as I reviewed that report, it sure looked like immunity was dropping after four months. However, even with the waning immunity, there was not evidence of "breakthrough" cases of 'severe covid resulting in hospitalization' .
The Guardian article also focused on the spread of covid to members of a household beginning with a "breakthrough" infection.
to me, this is very similar to recent posts citing family members working together in a business. indoor (recycled) air, close contact, lack of distancing; to me, it is the proximity of the people, far more than their residential address, that is important to transmission.

teletech states the Guardian article acknowledges that vaccinated people were found to shed virus for a shorter time.
as is noted above ( earlier post ) this is part of the role of vaccination in limiting the spread of covid.
I hate to think where we would be with the Delta variant if tens of millions of people were not vaccinated.

I share teletech's concern ( also stated weeks ago up-thread) that eventually everyone will be exposed to covid.
I will be getting the vaccination booster later this month.

Be well.
Please Be Safe... tj

[funkendrenchman]

So when COVID-related restrictions came back with the Delta wave, we no longer had an obvious off-ramp to return to normal—are we still trying to get a certain percentage of people vaccinated? Or are we waiting until all kids are eligible? Or for hospitalizations to fall and stay steady? The path ahead is not just unclear; it’s nonexistent. We are meandering around the woods because we don’t know where to go.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...al-now/620572/

[teletech]

I’m glad I got vaccinated and it seemed like I had mild symptoms because of it. The vaccine just isn’t stopping the spread and that is concerning to me.

[jono]

On a small sample of my extended family. Working at dads house. 4 or us altogether. Each part of a separate household. Dad develops cough thursday, he smoked a tool thought he breathed in smoke. All of us develop symptoms 3 to 4 days later. Dad takes 1st test, positive. Rest of extended family takes test. The 4 working together all test positive. Rest of family negative. Within next week all develop symptom except for 4. Eventually 13 of 15 positive on pcr, 2 asymptomatic. The rest have symptoms ranging from fever, to scratchy throat, to puking all day. Kids are not vaccinated adults are. Didn’t seem to make a difference of vaccination status if you get it or not.

If you get a high enough dose you'll test positive. Sounds like either your sample is small (as you describe, it's actually zero for unvaccinated adults, so effectiveness can't be determined) or the exposure was very high (or both). In the latter case a very protective vaccine can still allow lots of positives. It's possible to get a 95% effectiveness while allowing a lot of breakthroughs, it just means exposure is high such the unvaccinated in that same environment are 20x more likely to get it. At the extreme end of the spectrum you could probably test positive even without any infection, just from the invasion. Obviously that's unlikely, but you get the idea.

As noted above, if you had that many breakthroughs and no one died the vaccine may well have been the difference between life and death for someone.

[jono]

I’m glad I got vaccinated and it seemed like I had mild symptoms because of it. The vaccine just isn’t stopping the spread and that is concerning to me.

You're aware that the vaccines don't give good immunity in the sinuses, right? I believe it was Shane Crotty who described (on This Week in Virology, I think #802) that breakthrough infections should lead to both broader immunity and more location-specific immunity where it occurred. If that plays out we'll see the combo of vaccination plus a sinus "cold" leading to an uptick in sterilizing immunity and further slowing of transmission.

But places with very high vaccination rates (see Marin County) are seeing a decline in new cases and places with lower vax rates (see north Idaho) are the last to crest the latest wave (maybe still haven't). So there is every reason to believe that vaccines are slowing transmission, just not as much as they were doing before delta. Mofro's superbug is a bitch. Let's hope it never meets alpha.

[Percy Rideout]

So when COVID-related restrictions came back with the Delta wave, we no longer had an obvious off-ramp to return to normal—are we still trying to get a certain percentage of people vaccinated? Or are we waiting until all kids are eligible? Or for hospitalizations to fall and stay steady? The path ahead is not just unclear; it’s nonexistent. We are meandering around the woods because we don’t know where to go.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...al-now/620572/

Poor leadership at the top.
Muddled messaging from the CDC both early and more recently RE: boosters.
Ineffective global vaccine rollout.
No end goal.
New reservoirs identified.

Bonus points: The article highlights that our COVID path may be similar to how we manage the Flu. *GASP*

[bodywhomper]

Norway is starting to reinstitute restrictions as they’re getting another wave. I haven’t looked closely at the nature of the wave, ie unvaxed vs vaxed cases, severity of disease amongst new cases, etc.

Here’s an article published on Friday about the AY.4.2 variant in the UK: https://assets.publishing.service.go...riefing-27.pdf

[The AD]

Vaccines are slowing transmission over a short duration. 2-3 months after injection efficacy rates are plunging.

Data please.

[mseriesbitch]

****misinfo trolling****

[seano732]

There's a 99% survival rate without vaccination

Worse yet, long haul c19 is hitting the vaccinated quite hard.

Get those shots every three months if you want to keep your immunity topped up friends.

User name checks out……

[Thaleia]

Here we go again.. yawn.

[The AD]

Seriously. Could be my quickest ignore add yet.

[Adolf Allerbush]

yay, another troll!

[old goat]

So when COVID-related restrictions came back with the Delta wave, we no longer had an obvious off-ramp to return to normal—are we still trying to get a certain percentage of people vaccinated? Or are we waiting until all kids are eligible? Or for hospitalizations to fall and stay steady? The path ahead is not just unclear; it’s nonexistent. We are meandering around the woods because we don’t know where to go.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...al-now/620572/

The national strategy is pretty clear. Impose vaccine mandates in an escalating fashion to the extent that the federal govt has jurisdiction. Beyond that our Constitution leaves it up to the states to decide when life returns to "normal". As far as what the goal should be--no one knows yet what level of vaccination and natural immunity will be necessary to reduce transmission to less than one, but that seems to be a worthy endpoint . I'm not sure what the point of the article is, other than the usual hand-wringing when reporters encounter scientific uncertainty about a novel, evolving virus and the constant flow of new information, although the Atlantic seems to experience more than the usual degree of covid angst.

It is not surprising that vaccination doesn't prevent transmission to close household contacts. While the vaccinated clear the virus faster and are contagious for a shorter time, household contacts will be exposed during the period of maximum contagiousness and exposed to a high level of virus for a prolonged period of time. The failure of vaccine to prevent household spread doesn't mean it doesn't prevent spread in less concentrated settings like stores or the workplace.

Re waning immunity--waning antibody levels does not equate to waning immunity.

mseriesbitch appears to have joined the forum for the sole purpose of spreading covid disinformation, unless they are a previously banned member.

[Danno]

don't engage the jong trolls, report the jong trolls.

[old goat]

don't engage the jong trolls, report the jong trolls.

done

[The AD]

mseriesbitch appears to have joined the forum for the sole purpose of spreading covid disinformation, unless they are a previously banned member.

The name suggests this ain't their first rodeo here.

[funkendrenchman]

Bonus points: The article highlights that our COVID path may be similar to how we manage the Flu. *GASP*

Many experts have been saying this since the summer of 2020. The question is when we can transition to that, and how exactly. Obviously, there's a minority that thought going that route from the beginning was a good idea.

[teletech]

You're aware that the vaccines don't give good immunity in the sinuses, right? I believe it was Shane Crotty who described (on This Week in Virology, I think #802) that breakthrough infections should lead to both broader immunity and more location-specific immunity where it occurred. If that plays out we'll see the combo of vaccination plus a sinus "cold" leading to an uptick in sterilizing immunity and further slowing of transmission.

But places with very high vaccination rates (see Marin County) are seeing a decline in new cases and places with lower vax rates (see north Idaho) are the last to crest the latest wave (maybe still haven't). So there is every reason to believe that vaccines are slowing transmission, just not as much as they were doing before delta. Mofro's superbug is a bitch. Let's hope it never meets alpha.

I live in Maine one of highest vax rate in country. We finally got the surge. The neighboring parts of states are surging. Northern N.H., northern VT. The first paragraph you said breakthrough cases should lead to broader immunity. I completely agree with that but also think that everyone is going to get it if they haven’t already. Hence while northern New England is surging right now and it already burned through Florida.
Throughout the whole pandemic if one person in your house got it, everyone in your house got it. That hasn’t changed with vaccination. It just needs to burn itself out.

[Percy Rideout]

Many experts have been saying this since the summer of 2020. The question is when we can transition to that, and how exactly. Obviously, there's a minority that thought going that route from the beginning was a good idea.

Yep. I'll award myself that medal now. Thanks.

[funkendrenchman]

Yep. I'll award myself that medal now. Thanks.

The Presidential Medal of Freedumb... of course.