Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Benny Profane]

Whether to consider the pandemic over, whether to continue or discontinue precautions is not for each citizen to decide for themselves. It is for health authorities to decide--in conjunction with political authorities when it comes to businesses and public events. (Hopefully those health authorities will be mostly epidemiologists--Osterholm, et al, and less infectious disease physicians--Fauci, et al.) Some members of the public may disagree and decide to flaunt the recommendations or rules from experts but that's been true from day one.


It is true that when large numbers of people are exposed to an infectious disease in dense environments some will be exposed to low bacterial or viral loads and will develop a degree of immunity. When this happens over time-generations- enough people have immunity to slow the spread, but not eliminate it, and some people will die. When a lot of people are exposed all at once--say Indians given smallpox-contaminated blankets--the disease will spread rapidly because no one has immunity and more people will die. Telling people to "get out their and build immunities" is the second scenario, not the first. It is akin to the mistaken idea that immunizations weaken the immune system. "Getting out their" is telling people to contribute to the spread of the virus, the emergence of more variants, and possible getting sick and dying themselves.

If by September the authorities are telling us to throw away our masks and crowd into bars great. If they are telling us that the pandemic is still out of control then anyone who decides on their own that they've had enough and are going to do what they feel like doing is selfish and entitled and has the impulse control , ability to defer gratification, and maturity of a two year old.

You really have that much trust in "authorities" after the last fifteen months?

[MontuckyFried]

That was the one. It was yanked because it was garbage. I hope it was archived someplace because it actually was a great example of bad science that should have never made it to peer review as written. Their data was all over the map and they tried to ignore that by providing a speculative explanation for a totally unrepeatable average measurement. The kind of thing sophomore lab students try to get away with (which, to be fair, apart from their prof, they probably were).

When the experiment does not produce consistent results the people who designed it should either troubleshoot and start again or admit that they've proven that the technique doesn't work. There were other issues, too, of course, but the 95% confidence interval ranging from like 30% to 180% of the mean value should have been a red flag.

Oh damn. Interesting. And yet the media was all over that one when it came out. I saw it reported all over the place. And some of you wonder why some of us show some level of skepticism each time the media farts out a headline about whatever. The WHO, the CDC, Dr. Fauci. They all seem to flip flop about every two days over the course of the last 16 months.

[MontuckyFried]

You really have that much trust in "authorities" after the last fifteen months?

Seriously!

[bennymac]

healthy level of skepticism about today’s headlines is smart

cherry picking instances from a year ago (where experts didn’t get it right and have since corrected themselves) in order to justify shitty behavior is transparently self serving

[wooley12]

Scotchgard

I used brochures from the lodge to line the seat and thigh areas of my jeans for skiing under the lights. Worked to get in a couple extra runs before hypothermia set in. Back in the day.

[bodywhomper]

Lancet journal editorial about aerosol as the primary mode of infection that points to ineffective/inappropriate cdc guidance and the need for the cdc to update its guidance. looks like an ongoing debate: https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journ...21)00869-2.pdf

[CarlMega]

healthy level of skepticism about today’s headlines is smart

cherry picking instances from a year ago (where experts didn’t get it right and have since corrected themselves) in order to justify shitty behavior is transparently self serving

I seem to remember a lot of context "qualifiers" and cautions about rushing to judgment and interpretation of results right off.

The glib news sources and cherry picking people went as deep as the headline. Called it settled law if it served their purposes.

The adults in the media had experts who explained the study and put it in context.

A narrative of 'flip flopping' is ridiculous. Generally speaking, interpretation & recommendations are made using the best data at the time- typically framed very specifically and are always subject to be revised when more data is made available. It's not dogma which is hard for the belief trumps facts crowd.

[wooley12]

Lancet journal editorial about aerosol as the primary mode of infection that points to ineffective/inappropriate cdc guidance and the need for the cdc to update its guidance. looks like an ongoing debate: https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journ...21)00869-2.pdf

I was in the aerosol as a source camp from early on. What should the new CDC guidance be?

[XXX-er]

yeah I thot COVID was spread by aerosol for the most part if we are talking about picking it up being just out and about

Picking Covid up from surfaces in an ICU ward full of Covid sufferers is different & extreme

[bodywhomper]

I was in the aerosol as a source camp from early on. What should the new CDC guidance be?

i was also turned onto lindsay marr, aerosol SME, early on, too.

this group is stating that the cdc and who are (continually) pushing guidance (and policy) based on the theory that it's mostly spread through respiratory droplets, which the lancet op-ed authors argue is not based on the current science. The current science supports the theory that the inhalation of virus-containing aerosol is the primary mode of infection. For instance, air filtration is buried on cdc recommendations. In turn, it is also buried on many other government guidance documents.

"“This is not a virus transmitted by droplets at close range,” said Robert Schooley, an infectious disease expert at UC San Diego. “Or by touching things. It’s primarily transmitted when we breathe. If we breathe in air from someone who has the virus just breathed out, the virus gets into our lungs and the disease can start.”

The Lancet article examined 25 peer-reviewed studies that the authors say prove aerosol transmission is the primary pathway to infection.

“I think people who aren’t vaccinated should be very cautious about being indoors with other people in places where the masks come off. That would be places like restaurants and bars and gyms,” Schooley said.

The science does not support the idea that contamination from surfaces or coughing and sneezing are the major pathways the virus spreads.

“There is actually a shocking lack of evidence for the pathways that the CDC [Centers for Disease Control] and WHO [World Health Organization] say are major,” said Jose Jimenez, an atmospheric chemist at the University of Colorado.

Jimenez said the evidence shows the risk of infection rises dramatically indoors and that should be proof enough that the Centers for Disease Control needs to update its guidance.

“They are quite a bit behind the science,” Jimenez said. “And they need to update their recommendations because some of the things they are saying are not sufficient. The masks that people who are at high risk are wearing need to be improved.”"
https://www.kpbs.org/news/2021/apr/1...ads-faster-in/

[PB]

Yeah, and according to MF STDs and gingivitis are transmitted via aerosolization.
Fucking tool.

[bennymac]

A good friend of mine who is an ER doctor in a big city that has high rates of covid said they are still seeing lots of covid positive patients of all ages coming in sick even though they have had their first shot. And still seeing elderly people coming in sick despite having 2 shots. I’m not at all surprised but it sounds like some of you might be.

Yes the thinking is that these people are less sick than they would be without vaccines. But they are still sick enough to end up in the ER. Think about how often you get sick enough that you feel you need to go to the emergency room.

[old goat]

You really have that much trust in "authorities" after the last fifteen months?

I certainly trust the scientific authorities--Fauci and Osterholm etc etc. I don't expect them to be right all the time. Fauci was wrong about airborne transmission and admitted it long ago. There has never been a scientist that doesn't have a major mistake or three in their resume. Einstein went to his grave denying quantum mechanics. I base my level of trust on how willing someone is to admit mistakes.

Political authorities--depends. I do believe that political authorities need to have a voice in the kinds of restrictions that have major economic impacts. I judge my degree of trust by how much it appears that they have the best interest of the community at heart vs their political career. So should such and such a business be open and on what terms--politicians need a voice. Whether people should wear masks and distance--no significant economic impact so science should have the only voice and their rulings should have the force of law.

I happen to believe that Newsom has done a reasonable job of balancing the science and the economics--his obvious hypocrisy as displayed by his personal behavior is obviously a serious mistake. DeSantis is a self-serving idiot.

Do I trust authorities to make better decisions than you? I don't need to bother to answer that.
Besides it's pretty clear that you think anyone in a position of authority is wrong a;; the time and that you know better about any subject than people who are actually trained and experienced in the subject. It baffles me why I bother responding to your posts.

[KQ]

I certainly trust the scientific authorities--Fauci and Osterholm etc etc. I don't expect them to be right all the time. Fauci was wrong about airborne transmission and admitted it long ago. There has never been a scientist that doesn't have a major mistake or three in their resume. Einstein went to his grave denying quantum mechanics. I base my level of trust on how willing someone is to admit mistakes.

Political authorities--depends. I do believe that political authorities need to have a voice in the kinds of restrictions that have major economic impacts. I judge my degree of trust by how much it appears that they have the best interest of the community at heart vs their political career. So should such and such a business be open and on what terms--politicians need a voice. Whether people should wear masks and distance--no significant economic impact so science should have the only voice and their rulings should have the force of law.

I happen to believe that Newsom has done a reasonable job of balancing the science and the economics--his obvious hypocrisy as displayed by his personal behavior is obviously a serious mistake. DeSantis is a self-serving idiot.

Do I trust authorities to make better decisions than you? I don't need to bother to answer that.
Besides it's pretty clear that you think anyone in a position of authority is wrong a;; the time and that you know better about any subject than people who are actually trained and experienced in the subject. It baffles me why I bother responding to your posts.

Social contract

[Benny Profane]

I certainly trust the scientific authorities--Fauci and Osterholm etc etc. I don't expect them to be right all the time. Fauci was wrong about airborne transmission and admitted it long ago. There has never been a scientist that doesn't have a major mistake or three in their resume. Einstein went to his grave denying quantum mechanics. I base my level of trust on how willing someone is to admit mistakes.

Political authorities--depends. I do believe that political authorities need to have a voice in the kinds of restrictions that have major economic impacts. I judge my degree of trust by how much it appears that they have the best interest of the community at heart vs their political career. So should such and such a business be open and on what terms--politicians need a voice. Whether people should wear masks and distance--no significant economic impact so science should have the only voice and their rulings should have the force of law.

I happen to believe that Newsom has done a reasonable job of balancing the science and the economics--his obvious hypocrisy as displayed by his personal behavior is obviously a serious mistake. DeSantis is a self-serving idiot.

Do I trust authorities to make better decisions than you? I don't need to bother to answer that.
Besides it's pretty clear that you think anyone in a position of authority is wrong a;; the time and that you know better about any subject than people who are actually trained and experienced in the subject. It baffles me why I bother responding to your posts.

Yeah, but Fauci is a glorified PR man, and Desantis has real power.

[Benny Profane]

A good friend of mine who is an ER doctor in a big city that has high rates of covid said they are still seeing lots of covid positive patients of all ages coming in sick even though they have had their first shot. And still seeing elderly people coming in sick despite having 2 shots. I’m not at all surprised but it sounds like some of you might be.

Yes the thinking is that these people are less sick than they would be without vaccines. But they are still sick enough to end up in the ER. Think about how often you get sick enough that you feel you need to go to the emergency room.

This just does not pair up with the actual numbers, unless the "authorities " are lying to me, and that wouldn't be the first time. But, I'll trust the efficacy numbers and overall hospitalization and death numbers over your purely anecdotal tales and your my friend says stuff. To quote our granpop prez, C'mon, man!

Edit: You comment about emergency room usage is so clueless. You do know that the ER is the doctor's office in a lot of "big cities" for the poor and working poor, right?

[Meadow Skipper]

Yeah, but Fauci is a glorified PR man, and Desantis has real power.

LOL. That’s your response to og’s post?

OG, I’m gonna quote you here, because you’ll want to remember you wrote it.

… It baffles me why I bother responding to your posts.

[Benny Profane]

It's true. Fauci has no "authority" over anything important. Assholes like Desantis do. Where the fuck you been for over a year?

[MTT]

Lancet journal editorial about aerosol as the primary mode of infection that points to ineffective/inappropriate cdc guidance and the need for the cdc to update its guidance. looks like an ongoing debate: https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journ...21)00869-2.pdf

Given that they detect the virus in sewage and even in your stool. And how germs viruses history spread. You have to assume humans leave the virus on surfaces. Another human will contact the virus touching an infected surface. Common sense says take precautions to prevent that. Along with not breathing in an infected person's exhaust

[Benny Profane]

You're creepy.

[jono]

It's true. Fauci has no "authority" over anything important. Assholes like Desantis do. Where the fuck you been for over a year?

If you plan to wear a mask when they tell you you have to, then sure, those are the ones with "the power." You have the option to pay attention to other people, but that's on you.

[bennymac]

This just does not pair up with the actual numbers, unless the "authorities " are lying to me, and that wouldn't be the first time. But, I'll trust the efficacy numbers and overall hospitalization and death numbers over your purely anecdotal tales and your my friend says stuff. To quote our granpop prez, C'mon, man!

Edit: You comment about emergency room usage is so clueless. You do know that the ER is the doctor's office in a lot of "big cities" for the poor and working poor, right?

I didn't say these people were being hospitalized / are dying. C'mon man.

It's funny to watch you swing back from the "You really have that much trust in "authorities" after the last fifteen months?" quote from...let me check....8 hour ago.

But yes of course - you should trust stats more than any anecdotal stories.

And yes - I am fully aware of how an ER is a doctors office for a lot of people - both in big and small cities and even in small towns. These are people who are sitting waiting 6-8 hours to be seen and are doing that knowing that if they don't have covid they are placing themselves inside an area where they are at risk of contracting it (the city hospitals being overrun with covid patients is the daily news). They are showing up because they themselves are sick and unwell enough that they feel they need to be seen by a doctor - this isn't the mildly unwell with a runny nose or a dry cough. Outside of covid patients and those brought in by ambulance the census numbers in big city ERs is down dramatically - no one is coming to the ER like they normally would for their minor complaints.

[Benny Profane]

If you plan to wear a mask when they tell you you have to, then sure, those are the ones with "the power." You have the option to pay attention to other people, but that's on you.

i have a hard time understanding you. What did the last sentence mean?

[Benny Profane]

I didn't say these people were being hospitalized / are dying. C'mon man.

It's funny to watch you swing back from the "You really have that much trust in "authorities" after the last fifteen months?" quote from...let me check....8 hour ago.

But yes of course - you should trust stats more than any anecdotal stories.

And yes - I am fully aware of how an ER is a doctors office for a lot of people - both in big and small cities and even in small towns. These are people who are sitting waiting 6-8 hours to be seen and are doing that knowing that if they don't have covid they are placing themselves inside an area where they are at risk of contracting it (the city hospitals being overrun with covid patients is the daily news). They are showing up because they themselves are sick and unwell enough that they feel they need to be seen by a doctor - this isn't the mildly unwell with a runny nose or a dry cough.

Sometimes, from the anecdotes I have read, it is just that. They have a cold. Or pain.

[bennymac]

Based on anecdotal info shared with me: other than covid/potential covid patients the number of “non-urgent” people presenting to ERs is down dramatically in the last 12 months in cities with covid outbreaks