San Juans - the Nose

[John_B]

My biggest take away is what the hell prompted them to enter the gully?

That thing is terrifying and directly below the slope they decided not to ski. I’m at a loss.


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No answer on why the gully, but perhaps skiers 1-3 were anxious about the safety of the regroup point and wanted to continue to keep the group spread out. That has been my inclination in similar scenarios.

[cmsummit]

They were gonna have to at least cross the gully to get back to Opus hut at end of the day.

Not true.....they could have skinned uphill to the NW along the south/west side of the gully to the point where the dangerous terrain trap is non-existent and then back up to the hut. Take a look at Google Earth.

[doebedoe]

Not true.....they could have skinned uphill to the NW along the south/west side of the gully to the point where the dangerous terrain trap is non-existent and then back up to the hut. Take a look at Google Earth.

Oh yes, sorry. I meant if they were going to descend to the bottom of that area. Looking at the topo, you're totally right that they could've skinned up and around this area.

[cmsummit]

Oh yes, sorry. I meant if they were going to descend to the bottom of that area. Looking at the topo, you're totally right that they could've skinned up and around this area.

Of course, maybe they didn't feel comfortable skinning uphill under the area that slid sympathetically.....GE clearly shows old avy snow in the gully below this area. There really was no low-risk egress back to the hut from the bottom of the slope that they skied.

[I've seen black diamonds!]

[beaterdit]

What I can't get off my mind is it seems like an easy traverse across to the road area on the adjacent slope below the hut. I feel like that would have been obvious move but I wasn't there...

[cmsummit]

Absolutely and that was the route I was referring to above.

[BFD]

I have skied this. I was rolling solo so I avoided this terrain trap. Yes you can head back up hill and cross back over in the treed area. This is simply a case of yahoo, powder let's get some more turns. Personally I would not of wanted to break trail up that south facing slope at 4:00. But from the picture there is already a lot of tracks on it. They probably figured roll the gully catch the uptrack already in back to the hut. My thoughts to all those affected by this. Terrible tragedy.

[Tele 'til You're Smelly]

you can easily gain the road switchback on the other side of the gully, there is no cliff or other impediment. From the switchback, the uptrack to the hut leaves the road and goes up about through maybe the last "0" in the "11,400" mark on the map there, and makes a clockwise circle path up to the hut. But keep in mind you'd have to hang in the gully to skin up. Who knows why skier 1 went down the gully instead- wanting to get out fast could have been the reason (although it is gully all the way down until you'd stop, not really a safer spot below). Condolences to the families and friends.

[bodywhomper]

Thanks for posting this. Can somebody please draw a triangle of the large side and maybe something showing the sympathetic avis that were drawn on the photo? Would appreciate it.

[RonMexico]

I was struck by seeing ski tracks of the far side of the gully. I would have thought that there might be a big deposition/powder blast up the far side, but it seems like it really just funneled down the narrowest/deepest part of the gully. Maybe they didn't ride higher on the left side worrying that side could also slide due to steepness? Or maybe the snow was better down the middle and they wanted to ski pow? But from what I can tell, it seems like just skiing a few feet up on the left side could have led to a totally different outcome. Either way, something I will certainly think about if I ever find myself needing to navigate this type of terrain feature in the future.

[I've seen black diamonds!]

Can somebody please draw a triangle of the large side and maybe something showing the sympathetic avis that were drawn on the photo? Would appreciate it.

Very rough, but here you go.


IIRC the south east facing slide in the photo was the result of mitigation.

[BFD]

the line you want is that slight ridge between the mitigation and the skier triggered.

[bodywhomper]

Very rough, but here you go.


IIRC the south east facing slide in the photo was the result of mitigation.

Thanks!

[adrenalated]

Figure 4: An annotated image of the avalanche taken on February 2. The yellow line indicates the group’s second ski run down to the knob before descending into the gully.The group triggered and were buried by the avalanche outlined in red. Avalanches that ran sympathetically are outlined in green and brown. Blue circles indicate the approximate burial locations of Riders 1 through 4. The large avalanche to the looker’s left of the fatal avalanche was triggered by explosives to protect searchers.

From the above caption and image from CAIC, I believe both of the smaller slides outlined in the Caltopo image were triggered sympathetically by the fatal avalanche, and the slide triggered by mitigation would be just off the map to the south. The approximate outlines seem about right. Just posting this because I misread ISBD's post a couple times and thought it'd be worth having the caption here.

Edit: this image from a different angle is also worth posting



I notice that the smaller sympathetic slide on the more NE aspect overran some previous tracks. There's also a large slide on the north aspect that I don't think they indicated what the trigger was or when it ran.

[I've seen black diamonds!]

From the above caption and image from CAIC, I believe both of the smaller slides outlined in the Caltopo image were triggered sympathetically by the fatal avalanche, and the slide triggered by mitigation would be just off the map to the south. The approximate outlines seem about right.

Edit: this image from a different angle is also worth posting



I notice that the smaller sympathetic slide on the more NE aspect overran some previous tracks. There's also a very large slide on the north aspect that I don't think they indicated what the trigger was or when it ran.

That's my understanding and what I was trying to represent. The caltopo images are nothing more than my "drawings" based on the CAIC images.

[Woodsy]

Fuck.

Given the state of the snowpack, AND the conditions that we're currently living under (the stress, isolation, uncertainty, restrictions, unemployment, political insanity/hatred, etc.) we should consider that most of us are at an increased risk of dying in an avalanche this year.

Everything is harder right now. It's harder to get work done. Harder to be a husband and a father. Harder to be empathetic to people you disagree with. Harder to stay sober. Harder to give a fuck some days. I strongly suspect that we collectively have a diminished capacity to make good decisions, including decisions about where to ski and where not to ski.

It's easy (and tempting) to read these reports and think "I wouldn't make that mistake." But if I ask myself, "When have I let my guard down in avy terrain and gotten away with it" I have no trouble thinking of examples. Same if I ask, "when have my partners pointed out important details (snowpack, weather, terrain) that I overlooked?"

We are intermittently rational creatures with incomplete understandings of what drives our behavior. We are all capable of unwittingly acting against our best interests and better judgement. Especially now. Take it easy out there.

applicable in everything. Thank you

[quienes?]

Adam ... https://coloradosun.com/2021/02/08/a...alanche-death/
Andy ... https://coloradosun.com/2021/02/08/a...alanche-death/
Seth ... https://coloradosun.com/2021/02/08/s...alanche-death/

Such amazing guys.

[Danno]

Adam ... https://coloradosun.com/2021/02/08/a...alanche-death/
Andy ... https://coloradosun.com/2021/02/08/a...alanche-death/
Seth ... https://coloradosun.com/2021/02/08/s...alanche-death/

Such amazing guys.

oof

[warthog]

Adam ... https://coloradosun.com/2021/02/08/a...alanche-death/
Andy ... https://coloradosun.com/2021/02/08/a...alanche-death/
Seth ... https://coloradosun.com/2021/02/08/s...alanche-death/

Such amazing guys.

Thanks for that. Seth was the one I knew through Dave, who was part of the article, and the photog.
I know Dave is hurting this week. Wish I could do more to help. Maybe a quick phone call is in order.

Again, thanks for posting that.

[doebedoe]

Fuck.

Given the state of the snowpack, AND the conditions that we're currently living under (the stress, isolation, uncertainty, restrictions, unemployment, political insanity/hatred, etc.) we should consider that most of us are at an increased risk of dying in an avalanche this year.

Everything is harder right now. It's harder to get work done. Harder to be a husband and a father. Harder to be empathetic to people you disagree with. Harder to stay sober. Harder to give a fuck some days. I strongly suspect that we collectively have a diminished capacity to make good decisions, including decisions about where to ski and where not to ski.

It's easy (and tempting) to read these reports and think "I wouldn't make that mistake." But if I ask myself, "When have I let my guard down in avy terrain and gotten away with it" I have no trouble thinking of examples. Same if I ask, "when have my partners pointed out important details (snowpack, weather, terrain) that I overlooked?"

We are intermittently rational creatures with incomplete understandings of what drives our behavior. We are all capable of unwittingly acting against our best interests and better judgement. Especially now. Take it easy out there.

This could be applied to so many things. Good thinking.

[Yonder_River]

I've been reflecting on these guys. I hope my boys turn into men like this. Some standout gents it seems.

[DaHeel]

Or just slowed them down enough to let shit pass for a bit. Who knows.

The airbag was on skier 4. He was on the far side of the gulley.

[DaHeel]

Thanks for that. Seth was the one I knew through Dave, who was part of the article, and the photog.
I know Dave is hurting this week. Wish I could do more to help. Maybe a quick phone call is in order.

Again, thanks for posting that.

Give dave a call. He is so close to Adam and Seth but not in the valley to be here for everyone.

[warthog]

Give dave a call. He is so close to Adam and Seth but not in the valley to be here for everyone.

Figured you knew him. Great dude. I will reach out to see how the whole family is doing.