To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[riser4]

In our Tri-Cities, you get to the Bristol Motor Speedway about 5:00am to get a good spot in line, produce your driver's license and general explanation for why you are in Phase 1a1 or 1a2, get blasted. Lines have typically been 3-4 miles long, but move pretty quickly. Gates typically close about 11:00am when they run out of vaccine.

Apparently they only gave Moderna for 5 days back in December/January. I had to go to a different facility for my second dose.

That's funny and fitting that they are using the speedway.

[Adolf Allerbush]

I thought checking ID was racist. Register online have ID. Sounds like it might block out the community that is impacted the most?

I don't understand this post.

[Ted Striker]

It's when you start understanding his posts that you need to worry.

[wkd-rdr]

Moderna #2 this am. Arm is a little sore. Feel a little "different" but not real sure why. Might have been the vodka last night.

I'd highly recommend a double dose of the Vodkas tonight.

[jono]

It's when you start understanding his posts that you need to worry.

Damn it. I think I may have a problem. Thanks for the warning!

[Ted Striker]

Damn it. I think I may have a problem. Thanks for the warning!

Read two fastfred posts and call me in the morning.

[MTT]

It's when you start understanding his posts that you need to worry.

You knew exactly what I was saying. But your sarcasm meter is broken
I could not resist a chance to turn that stupid shit around

[huckbucket]

J&J and Biontech now recording some good results. Not a knock-out given the emerging variants, but more arrows in the quiver and blunting of the most severe cases.

JnJ breaking.
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_vide...Cjb.mp4?tag=13

Worth a read.
https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/s...45433899794433

[prsboogie]

Received an interesting result yesterday. I am a regular blood donor, have been for 10 years and I went on the 14th of this month. I had received my vaccines on 12/17 and 1/7. I received a letter from the blood bank notifying me that I have antibodies and they are wondering if I would donate convalescent plasma.

Now I have never tested positive or had symptoms and didn't think 1 week would be sufficient to produce antibodies. I'm waiting to bump into one of the ID docs at work to run this by them but a hospitalist friend of mine said its more likely my response from the first shot.

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[huckbucket]

Received an interesting result yesterday. I am a regular blood donor, have been for 10 years and I went on the 14th of this month. I had received my vaccines on 12/17 and 1/7. I received a letter from the blood bank notifying me that I have antibodies and they are wondering if I would donate convalescent plasma.

Now I have never tested positive or had symptoms and didn't think 1 week would be sufficient to produce antibodies. I'm waiting to bump into one of the ID docs at work to run this by them but a hospitalist friend of mine said its more likely my response from the first shot.

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Never tested positive or had symptoms obviously doesn't rule out prior infection. And yes one week seems a little fast to develop antibodies from the first shot, but not completely out of line. Plus they probably didn't tell you the titer, just that you're positive. So it could be low levels.

[ötzi]

I'm really disappointed in Washington State's response to the vaccination requirements....Incomprehensible.

Remember this when it's time to vote.

We're in a slightly odd position, we've been Mass. residents since last spring but the DMV has basically been closed except by appointment, plus we didn't think it was urgent to do anything about it, so we stil have Maryland licenses so we may have to drive to Maryland to get stuck. I'd do it if I had to but I'd sure rather not drive 8 hours each way for it. 1st world blah blah but still, waahh!

[Mofro261]

Never tested positive or had symptoms obviously doesn't rule out prior infection. And yes one week seems a little fast to develop antibodies from the first shot, but not completely out of line. Plus they probably didn't tell you the titer, just that you're positive. So it could be low levels.

4 weeks post first shot and one week post second shot will be tons of antibody present to the Spike.

If you have NP antibodies... you been infected.

[prsboogie]

I'm happy to have them, regardless of how. I just wasn't expecting the response yet.

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[prsboogie]

Remember this when it's time to vote.

We're in a slightly odd position, we've been Mass. residents since last spring but the DMV has basically been closed except by appointment, plus we didn't think it was urgent to do anything about it, so we stil have Maryland licenses so we may have to drive to Maryland to get stuck. I'd do it if I had to but I'd sure rather not drive 8 hours each way for it. 1st world blah blah but still, waahh!

Have you tried AAA? Not sure how it works with transfers though

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[DJSapp]

J&J and Biontech now recording some good results. Not a knock-out given the emerging variants, but more arrows in the quiver and blunting of the most severe cases.

JnJ breaking.
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_vide...Cjb.mp4?tag=13

Worth a read.
https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/s...45433899794433

What's the collectives take on J&J's being ~70% effective for a one-shot, refrigerator friendly, tried and true technology vaccine? Good enough to turn the tide? Get it and get a mRNA vaccine in a year or two after supply catches up?

[Ted Striker]

You knew exactly what I was saying. But your sarcasm meter is broken
I could not resist a chance to turn that stupid shit around

100% honest here... I never even saw your post. I just saw the opportunity for a joke.

[jono]

What's the collectives take on J&J's being ~70% effective for a one-shot, refrigerator friendly, tried and true technology vaccine? Good enough to turn the tide? Get it and get a mRNA vaccine in a year or two after supply catches up?

Actual experts can offer more than me, but FWIW the last tweet in the thread you quoted seems like it would impact on that: efficacy against severe disease of 85% through day 28 increasing to 100% after day 49 may indicate it could be moot by the time supply catches up. Or not, but there should be better data by the time mRNAs are fully available. (And of course there's also a chance the risk of exposure drops before then, too.)

https://mobile.twitter.com/HelenBran...65110831108097

[Ted Striker]

We're in a slightly odd position, we've been Mass. residents since last spring but the DMV has basically been closed except by appointment, plus we didn't think it was urgent to do anything about it, so we stil have Maryland licenses so we may have to drive to Maryland to get stuck. I'd do it if I had to but I'd sure rather not drive 8 hours each way for it. 1st world blah blah but still, waahh!

My bro just moved back to WA from CA, same deal. I'm thinking utility bill with your names on it might suffice?

[MultiVerse]

What's the collectives take on J&J's being ~70% effective for a one-shot, refrigerator friendly, tried and true technology vaccine? Good enough to turn the tide? Get it and get a mRNA vaccine in a year or two after supply catches up?

J&J is conducting an additional Phase III 30,000 volunteer trial with two shots 57 days apart. That trail didn't start until the middle of November so we won't see results for a while. Still, if the 2-shot efficacy numbers approach the mRNA vaccines then that's yet another arrow in the quiver.

[old goat]

J and J efficacy is 72% in the US, 57% is South Africa.
So who gets J and J and who gets mRNA?
And at this point we still don't know to what extent any of the vaccines prevent community spread from asymptomatic carriers. It's going to be hard to open things up if we have a lot of vaccinate people refusing to wear masks while there are still a lot of unvaccinated people running around.

Also, Novavax works in GB but not so well in South Africa.
https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases...acy-uk-phase-3

Given that the SA variant is widespread I'd expect it to become the dominant strain quickly, as the vaccine selects for it, at least until another mutation overtakes it. I think we are in for a long, hard slog, well past the end of this year.
Yeah, we can quickly make mRNA vaccines against the variants but until there is massive manufacturing capacity the need to make new versions of the vaccines slows down the overall effort to get herd immunity.

[MultiVerse]

1) And at this point we still don't know to what extent any of the vaccines prevent community spread from asymptomatic carriers.

2) It's going to be hard to open things up if we have a lot of vaccinate people refusing to wear masks while there are still a lot of unvaccinated people running around.

1) We need more than one data point, but an Israeli study suggests 98% have sterilizing immunity, meaning they won't spread the virus, after the second Pfizer dose.

2) Perhaps a bigger issue is we open things up thanks to a combination of acquired immunity, vaccinations, and seasonality just in time for the anti-vaxxers to have their say causing people to lose interest in getting the vaccine themselves. It's already happening in China where due to their successful effort in controlling the virus only 25% of the population is willing to be vaccinated.

It opens to door to more variants in the future.

[old goat]

1) We need more than one data point, but an Israeli study suggests 98% have sterilizing immunity, meaning they won't spread the virus, after the second Pfizer dose.

2) Perhaps a bigger issue is we open things up thanks to a combination of acquired immunity, vaccinations, and seasonality just in time for the anti-vaxxers to have their say causing people to lose interest in getting the vaccine themselves. It's already happening in China where due to their successful effort in controlling the virus only 25% of the population is willing to be vaccinated.

It opens to door to more variants in the future.

If that's the same study that was discussed a few days ago, my recollection is that the antibody levels were very high but that there wasn't virological proof that the subjects didn't have virus in their noses. Am I wrong on that?

If I were a speculator I'd be investing in whatever company makes whatever equipment is needed to make mRNA vaccines. Better bet than Gamestop. I think the only way we truly get ahead of this virus is if we can develop the capacity to make and administer huge amounts of vaccine quickly. I'd be investing in those freezers too.

The movies got it wrong. The ideal virus doesn't kill everybody or close to everybody. It kills enough people to completely disrupt society while leaving enough people alive to keep it spreading and mutating. In fact, from the viewpoint of a virus, the perfect virus doesn't kill anybody. It just makes people a little sick, not too sick to go to work or school, makes them spew virus everywhere they go, not sick enough for people to bother with a vaccine,

People who have had Covid and gotten over it without long term effects can't rest easy. They will be susceptible to the variants--more so than vaccinated people because their antibody levels are lower. They may not get off easy the next time.

[MultiVerse]

Yeah, the same study. They have fleshed out the preliminary data. Perhaps a key point is the "sterilizing immunity" percentage is based on a reduction in positive PCR tests presumably taken via nasal swabs.

WRT not resting easy: "Vaccines will always be the best way to prevent mutations"

[alpinevibes]

My wife and our upstairs neighbor, both mid-30's in healthcare, got Moderna #2 on Monday morning. Both felt like total shit monday night and tuesday. Wife was exhausted, bad body aches, fever+chills, all the fun stuff Monday evening/night. From Tuesday night-on, she has just had a bad headache, but has continued to feel better. She's happy to have it and be done with it, but that was teh sux.

Still waiting for the County to get more doses and finishing 70+ and getting to the rest of 1B. Very minimal doses delivered in the last 2weeks; hopefully Biden's "plan" can get supply to states/counties with demand ASAP.

[old goat]

Yeah, the same study. They have fleshed out the preliminary data. Perhaps a key point is the "sterilizing immunity" percentage is based on a reduction in positive PCR tests presumably taken via nasal swabs.

WRT not resting easy: "Vaccines will always be the best way to prevent mutations"

Thanks for updating me. Much easier than following the literature myself. (One reason I retired was that I was having a harder and harder time motivating myself to keep up with the literature. Another reason was to ski.)