Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Timberridge]

Short question for timber: couldn't we just put titty pictures on spray cans with pre 1987 cfc gas and solve the crisis that way? I mean EVERYBODY would use that hairspray. We could use the illegal production somewhere in Eastern China and solve the issue by going full circle!
Oh edit: and we would have to make poison, quiet riot and twisted Sister popular again. But that should be easy.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxgMGk9JPVA

This is an interesting idea. You're one of the few people here using your own brain, thinking out of the box and not just quoting and linking 'studies' and then picking fights based on political leanings.

Some time ago, a guy who worked for me came in late and I asked him what happened. Apparently his daughter was getting ready for a night on the town the previous night, and was smoking a cigarette and putting hairspray in her hair. Well, her hair caught on fire. They managed to put it out, but she ended up in the hospital that evening. I never met her but always assumed she must have been a real keeper.

[iceman]

Short question for timber: couldn't we just put titty pictures on spray cans with pre 1987 cfc gas and solve the crisis that way? I mean EVERYBODY would use that hairspray. We could use the illegal production somewhere in Eastern China and solve the issue by going full circle!
Oh edit: and we would have to make poison, quiet riot and twisted Sister popular again. But that should be easy.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxgMGk9JPVA

Just checking in to say you have won the covid-19 username sweepstakes. Subtle Plague indeed. Not quite subtle enough but hey.

I lived on Long Island for like the 6 months that Twisted Sister was at their peak. Huntington. Them and Gerry Cooney. Couldn't get away from there, them, and him fast enough, honestly. But Long Island girls do fuck, so there's that in its favor.

[Timberridge]

But Long Island girls do fuck, so there's that in its favor.

Best thing I ever saw on the LIE. HS age dude was driving and a girl was giving him a blowjob. We slow down our SUV to cheer and give them the thumbs up, the girl picks up her head, smiles, and gets back to work. Dude was driving 35 mph on the LIE for 3 miles. He probably felt like he was doing 90.

[DBdude]

This was probably discussed here so excuse me for stepping away from this thread long enough not to notice. Julia Mancuso pushing the Plandemic conspiracy and seems to be personal Twitter buddies with Judy Mikovits.

She was already annoying AF but whatever, I'm okay with people being cool with who they are as long as it is good harmless fun. But pushing garbage like this on followers who find her influential...no longer a fan of any sort. Too bad because at one time before I knew much about her I thought she was a cool bad ass. I like to hero worship these gals that rip but...unfollowed on all platforms. I'm sure she is crushed.

wow - julia mancuso - damn - oh well

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

that's disappointing.

[simple]

This just in ... Famous and talented people can be uneducated as well....

[ron johnson]

I don't have much of an opinion on masks, but this meta analysis of 10 RCT's found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of masks: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

Also, in clinical use masks are disposed after use. We are touching, adjusting, and re-using our masks - it could be counterproductive.

[iceman]

Thank you for caring about us. You moron.

[TG]

Texas.
obesity is a comorbidity
all gravy baby

[Boissal]

Texas.
obesity is a comorbidity
all gravy baby

I can fit my entire body in 1 leg of the pants of the smallest person in that video. And I can park my car in the bed of their giant trucks. WTF...

[bennymac]

Texas.
obesity is a comorbidity
due to an all gravy based diet

fixed

[Core Shot]

shirley you jest

hopefully you git help

Thx bro. I laughed it off and gave him a virtual hug.
But that one hurt a bit. It’s weird to hear a full on “Kill yourself” from someone you think shares your same love of pow and life lived.

This shit virus has some folks inside out and upside down.
I’m trying to keep the level
Knowing none of us gets out of here alive
But wishing everyone a good ride along the way

[Viva]

You're saying that low dose exposure without transmission produces immunity? Is there evidence of that? I would think that in order to produce antibodies the virus must be replicating to some degree--ie transmission. Is there evidence that the difference between symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers is the number of virons in the exposure, rather than differences in the host immune response or genetic susceptibility? Is their quantitative evidence of antibody titers between symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers?

d00d, I've been wondering a lot about this myself. This is especially important in the "Wear a mask lest you infect others" bitch slapping contest occurring nation-wide. Regrettably, I find that there is a paucity of published data to make any reasonable conclusions with respect to the asymptomatic crowd (understandable as this group is more difficult to identify) vs. "Full Blown Covid" group (the “Symptomats”).

Earlier today I read two reports (one non-peer reviewed) that shared clinical observations (i.e., they weren't hypothesis-driven studies). And while these observations seemed interesting (they report that the Symptomats have either 33 or 100-fold the viral capacity that the Asymptomats do, depending on the report, with the peak viral load occurring at either 4.1 or 2.7 days prior to the onset of symptoms, I had no idea if these are valid observations. No controls, don’t know if their methods were valid, didn’t recognize their statistical tests. Can't derive anything useful from this. I’m guessing that any report on Asymptomats will prove equally painful to figure out.

Maybe a bit simple-minded (I never did a clinical study), but in order to gain anything meaningful, you’d perhaps have to design a study in which a reasonably diverse cohort are exposed to Bat-Death Virus concurrently, in an infection-inducing dose, and then subsequently tested daily for virus and / or viron capacity, while observing for COVID-19 symptoms. This may provide a reasonable way to distinguish between the Symptomats and Asymptomats as far as their ability to infect. I doubt that such a study would ever be approved in the US for obvious reasons.

Simple-minded proposals aside, from the beginning of this 2020 Bat-Death Virus odyssey, and especially due to limitations in understanding certain aspects of the epidemic, my thinking has generally followed the tenet of Oscar Meyer's Razor; the simplest explanation is often best (Cause if I were a Oscar Mayer razor, Everyone would be in love, Oh everyone would be in love, Everyone would be in love with me). Under this supposition, folks not presenting symptoms or just mild symptoms have immune systems that are kicking virus ass, leaving little opportunity for repeated replication cycles. Their viral capacity will thus be significantly lower than any Symptomat. Of course this group can still theoretically infect others, with such likelihood being dependent on other (myriad) factors. But knowing what their capacity to infect would certainly aid in resolving the on-going arguments on masks as well as allow for informed government policy at all levels.

[Tippster]

d00d, I've been wondering a lot about this myself. This is especially important in the "Wear a mask lest you infect others" bitch slapping contest occurring nation-wide. Regrettably, I find that there is a paucity of published data to make any reasonable conclusions with respect to the asymptomatic crowd (understandable as this group is more difficult to identify) vs. "Full Blown Covid" group (the “Symptomats”).

Earlier today I read two reports (one non-peer reviewed) that shared clinical observations (i.e., they weren't hypothesis-driven studies). And while these observations seemed interesting (they report that the Symptomats have either 33 or 100-fold the viral capacity that the Asymptomats do, depending on the report, with the peak viral load occurring at either 4.1 or 2.7 days prior to the onset of symptoms, I had no idea if these are valid observations. No controls, don’t know if their methods were valid, didn’t recognize their statistical tests. Can't derive anything useful from this. I’m guessing that any report on Asymptomats will prove equally painful to figure out.

Maybe a bit simple-minded (I never did a clinical study), but in order to gain anything meaningful, you’d perhaps have to design a study in which a reasonably diverse cohort are exposed to Bat-Death Virus concurrently, in an infection-inducing dose, and then subsequently tested daily for virus and / or viron capacity, while observing for COVID-19 symptoms. This may provide a reasonable way to distinguish between the Symptomats and Asymptomats as far as their ability to infect. I doubt that such a study would ever be approved in the US for obvious reasons.

Simple-minded proposals aside, from the beginning of this 2020 Bat-Death Virus odyssey, and especially due to limitations in understanding certain aspects of the epidemic, my thinking has generally followed the tenet of Oscar Meyer's Razor; the simplest explanation is often best (Cause if I were a Oscar Mayer razor, Everyone would be in love, Oh everyone would be in love, Everyone would be in love with me). Under this supposition, folks not presenting symptoms or just mild symptoms have immune systems that are kicking virus ass, leaving little opportunity for repeated replication cycles. Their viral capacity will thus be significantly lower than any Symptomat. Of course this group can still theoretically infect others, with such likelihood being dependent on other (myriad) factors. But knowing what their capacity to infect would certainly aid in resolving the on-going arguments on masks as well as allow for informed government policy at all levels.

OK, how do you differentiate between those who are truly asymptomatic and those whose symptoms simply haven't fully manifested yet? It's Hay fever season here. I'd like to not have either sneeze on me or those I give a fuck about, thanks.

[Core Shot]

Fuck the mask. It’s a muzzle.

If you’re under 70. You’re more likely to die from lightning. Or a shark attack.

Get on with life for fucks sake.

Ps. I made up those stats. But they’re not far from distant probability.
I’m sure some nerd will come by to correct my orders of magnitude

[TG]

Fuck the mask. It’s a muzzle.

If you’re under 70. You’re more likely to die from lightning. Or a shark attack.

Glademaster was right

[The SnowShow]

Went to a short construction project meeting (inside) in Denver proper today. Out of 10 people, I was the only one with a mask (a KN95). Fucking awesome.

[CarlMega]

Txhicc

[Core Shot]

Glademaster was right

I’m going to die from a land shark attack?
Sweet.



Just remember to piss on my grave.

[jgb@etree]

Fuck the mask. It’s a muzzle.

If you’re under 70. You’re more likely to die from lightning. Or a shark attack.

Get on with life for fucks sake.

Ps. I made up those stats. But they’re not far from distant probability.
I’m sure some nerd will come by to correct my orders of magnitude

Close enough.

Various studies have now shown that there are somewhere between 50 and 90 asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases for every case that requires medical attention. Let's split the difference and call it 1 out of every 70 infections requires medical attention, or about 1.43% of all infections

Of the infections that require medical attention, between 3% and 5% are fatal. So let's split the difference again and call it 4%. So, the correct way to calculate the total mortality rate is to find out what percentage of TOTAL infections end in death. In other words, we need to find 4% of 1.43%. Which is 0.057% in the case of COVID-19. Which is right in line with the seasonal flu, and well below the mortality rate of just about any viral illness you can name.

If every single American got the virus, then just based on raw math, about 187,000 people will die. That's a LOT of people, but not really all that much worse than a bad flu season. Do you demand lockdowns for the flu every year? Mandate masks? Force millions of small businesses to close indefinitely? Force tens of millions to lose their livelihoods with minimal economic assistance? Do you demand everyone stay home indefinitely until it is "safe"? Do you strip everyone of their Constitutional rights because some people maybe just might get sick?

Now all of the math about is assuming deaths labeled COVID-19 are actually caused by COVID-19. Which they aren't. We know that because the CDC, WHO and other agencies around the world have all confirmed that they are labeling anyone who dies OF ANY CAUSE who is either tested positive or is "presumed" to have the virus as a COVID-19 death.

The Director of the Illinois Department of Public Health recently confirmed that already terminal patients in end-of-life hospice who then died of their illness but had COVID-19 at the time of death were being counted as COVID-19 deaths. In other words, if you have the virus or they even think you might, and then you die, you get labeled a COVID-19 death. You can literally get crushed by a steamroller and they'd still count you as a COVID-19 death if the puddle of remains left behind tested positive.

It gets even better. Various health agencies all over the world are stating that the average age of a COVID-19 death is 80 years old. And between 95% and 98% of those who die already have a serious or terminal illness. So virtually everyone dying of COVID-19 are already dying or are at high risk of dying of basically any illness they might contract.

It's a nothingburger. I understand that at the beginning, China was lying about everything. There was a novel virus on the loose an no one knew anything about it. Better safe than sorry, right? But now we know. Statistically, this is no worse than a flu season. And just like the flu, if you aren't very old, immunocompromised, or otherwise already terminal, you will be just fine. If you are concerned for your safety, stay at home yourself. If you are afraid grandma might get sick, tell her to stay home and don't go visit her. There is literally no reason at this point to keep everyone on lockdown indefinitely and deprive people of their rights and livelihoods. None whatsoever.

[old goat]

"Originally Posted by Core Shot

If you’re under 70. You’re more likely to die from lightning. Or a shark attack."

People get off the golf course when there's lightning. They get out of the water when they see a shark fin. Even the alt right.

[KQ]

Toilet paper on a roll: Georgia-Pacific ramps up TP production in Halsey

[Tippster]

"Originally Posted by Core Shot

If you’re under 70. You’re more likely to die from lightning. Or a shark attack."

People get off the golf course when there's lightning. They get out of the water when they see a shark fin. Even the alt right.

Thanks doc. This whole argument against wearing masks is simply ridiculous.

[evdog]

America goes opinion shopping...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...id=mailsignout

“The president’s going to get tagged by the fake news media as being irresponsible and not listening to doctors,” Matt Schlapp said on the call. “And so we have to gird his loins with a lot of other people.

Interesting choice of words there.....

[ex-powderbroker]

Close enough.

If every single American got the virus, then just based on raw math, about 187,000 people will die. That's a LOT of people, but not really all that much worse than a bad flu season.

not even in the most hopeful wishcasting of trumps new pr blonde could that be true.

even if the deaths are overstated a bit (maybe or maybe not) we have 90k dead of 1.5M cases after 60 days.

a typical flu season is 40k. is 90k in two months significantly higher than 40?

on the uss theodore they tested everyone aboard and the number of asymptomatic cases isn’t anywhere close to what you are suggesting and that is probably our best controlled study to date.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVI...dore_Roosevelt


4500 sailors
678 positive
400 of those asymptomatic

there are almost 20M people over 75 years old in the usa. if it went around the same way it destroyed old folks homes in new york it would be an unimaginable number of deaths.