Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[truckeelocal]

Disclaimer--all statistics, projections, and models are garbage at this point.

All statistics, projections, and models are getting constantly refined based on new information as it becomes available. While it's easy to bad mouth them and reflect on their poor performance when looking back they are the best tools available looking forward.

Or we could listen to Trump who would have opened up the country at Easter after he discovered that the virus wasn't magically going away which was an early observation of his.

[summit]

Isn't that what the CDC said over the weekend?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...05-01-2020.pdf

The CDC's weekly update on May 1, for the week ending April 25 compares the Covid to the Seasonal Flu.

Yup, you read that right.

Even though we've heard repeatedly (and some are still repeating it) over the past few months that, "it's not the Flu", that's just been contradicted by the CDC.




For the elderly, the over 65 crowd who is at the greatest risk, the CDC states the "hospitalization rates are similar".


The CDC death count for Covid, just released today, May 4, for results through May 2, is 38,576. It's slightly more than half the 68K reported just about everywhere else

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

So for 6-8 weeks COVID has killed and hospitalized what a bad flu season does in 6-8 months while infecting a fraction of the number of people that flu infects to achieve those outcomes. Long way to go

The "reduced number" of deaths is a mixture of parsing out categories and delayed reporting. If we counted flu deaths with the restrictions used to count COVID deaths, a flu season would probably "kill" 10K. But all those other people the flu actually killed? They'd still be dead. So are the people dead from COVID.

You can manipulate statistics until they make you feel better and also lose all meaning.

[Kevo]

Honestly this whole work from home thing is pretty awesome. Having spent the past 5+ years traveling nonstop for work I'm really enjoying not flying and not commuting. I was averaging 200 hours of flight time per year and probably another 80 hours of time spent at airports or on my way to airports. Add in a 40 minute each way commute for when I was at the office and I must have gained back 450 hours a year of time that was wasted previously.

I'd gladly do this WFH thing forever if it didn't mean the collapse of the global economy and hundreds of thousands of people being killed.

[KQ]

Forkin' A:

'COVID parties' hurt everyone


People who are intentionally flouting health recommendations by exposing themselves and others to COVID-19 are going to push reopening things here back, Walla Walla County health officials said today.

With today’s count, there are now 94 residents, including some Tyson Fresh Meats employees, who have been diagnosed with COVID-19.

The number includes 34 people who have recovered from and four people admitted to the hospital with the coronavirus, according to a news release.

Some of the county’s cases are stemming from people who have purposefully exposed themselves to the virus, said Meghan DeBolt, director of the county’s Department of Community Health.

Her investigative team has been told of local “COVID-19 parties,” where non-infected people mingle with an infected person in an effort to catch the virus, DeBolt said, calling the idea “terrible.”

When someone tests positive for the disease, he or she is asked to name who they’ve been in personal contact with. Those queries have revealed people here are grouping together for these parties, she said.

“We don’t know when it is happening. It’s after the fact that we hear from cases. We ask about contacts, and there are 25 people because: ‘We were at a COVID party.’”

New positive test results in the county have resulted from such gatherings, DeBolt said.

“It’s unacceptable. It’s irresponsible.”

At one time, chickenpox parties were popular among some families, she noted.

“But chickenpox is a well-understood virus. This virus is not. This virus is only 5 months old.”

There is documented evidence of cases of people who have recovered from the coronavirus, according to medical criterion, then tested positive for it once more, she said.

DeBolt said people touting a need to build herd immunity in the community by intentional exposure are ill informed.

“It’s a really poor excuse to be social,” she said.

Her agency will be reaching out to local law enforcement for help in breaking up COVID parties anytime it’s possible to stop such gatherings, DeBolt said, pointing out her staff can put people in involuntary quarantine to reduce risk to others.

“It is not an innocent endeavor, by any means. It really sets us back. In reopening the county, we look at not only total case count, but if our community is being diligent.”

Exposure parties are a picture of people not taking recommendations to stay apart seriously, she said.

“This will delay our community being able to reopen and get our economy operating. This is stupid … Walla Walla is better than that.”

Health experts don’t yet know if post-illness immunity is a sure thing, if reinfection is possible or if the virus can continue living inside the human body, DeBolt said.

What epidemiologists do know is that even children with COVID-19 might require hospitalization, survivors may suffer long-term damage and no case is “mild,” officials said.

The numbers of COVID-19 cases in Washington state reached 15,185 as of this morning, and 834 deaths have been attributed to the coronavirus.

The state’s virus map shows Yakima, Benton and Franklin counties among those just behind hardest-hit Snohomish and King counties in numbers of cases.

Umatilla County (OR) officials are today reporting 70 cases of the coronavirus, 11 of those newly confirmed.

One person is hospitalized from the disease; the county reported its first virus-affiliated death this weekend.

Oregon is reporting 2,759 cases and 109 deaths from the virus. Multnomah and Marion counties on the west side of the state have the highest number of Oregon cases so far, according to the Oregon Health Authority.

[huckbucket]

I'd gladly do this WFH thing forever if it didn't mean the collapse of the global economy and hundreds of thousands of people being killed.

It's the least we can do. Carry on.

[Core Shot]

Honestly this whole work from home thing is pretty awesome. Having spent the past 5+ years traveling nonstop for work I'm really enjoying not flying and not commuting. I was averaging 200 hours of flight time per year and probably another 80 hours of time spent at airports or on my way to airports. Add in a 40 minute each way commute for when I was at the office and I must have gained back 450 hours a year of time that was wasted previously.

I'd gladly do this WFH thing forever if it didn't mean the collapse of the global economy and hundreds of thousands of people being killed.

The crazy thing is. Did you need to fly there to be face to face to close the deal?

Human contact is a big part of sales.
But it also seems too easy to jet across the world for a chit chat.
Maybe the new normal is more eco friendly for sales

[ill-advised strategy]

Were u referring to the page count of this thread

[KenJongIll]

So for 6-8 weeks COVID has killed and hospitalized what a bad flu season does in 6-8 months while infecting a fraction of the number of people that flu infects to achieve those outcomes. Long way to go .

I like this. Stole it and used it somewhere else. This other forum has a contingent that the system is attributing many other causes of death to corona...just to get the “bonus”.

[Boissal]

Things are re-opening here in UT and Ms Boissal said she's never seen that many drunks rolled into the trauma bay. Apparently people felt the need to properly celebrate freedom after these incredibly constraining 3 weeks (heavy sarcasm here for those of you outside of UT who don't realize how little was actually done here as far as cooping people up). She said it's a nice change of pace from the increase in domestic violence victims they've been seeing during the "quarantine". She has this hilarious recording of a completely incoherent guy babbling on and on about his car (totaled). A nurse chimes in at some point to remind in that he's injured in the ER (easy to forget) and dude's response, after a perfectly-timed dramatic pause, is "that's cool man I don't give a fuck". I imagine the headache and the bill with change his mind fast... He's in a bertter position than the guy who threw all of his remaining $1 at the ambulance guys after he crashed his car driving away from the titty bar at least.

Our neighbors threw a party to celebrate things re-opening. Weather was nice, big BBQ in the yard, firepit going. They had cars parked all over the block and more than 50 people there. At first there was karaoke, then drunk karaoke, eventually hammered-as-shit karaoke, and finally get-in-a-fight-with-Bruce-over-the-mic karaoke. I was sitting on the back deck listening to these 2 dudes braying insults at each other over 80s hits and sure enough they got into it. Cops were called and eventually came to disperse the shitshow but not before Bruce ate shit in the firepit. Apparently he got some pretty gnarly burns on both hands. Neighbor's kids apologized to me the next morning, said there were a few unwanted friends who showed up late and created chaos. Nobody threw empties in our yard or puked over the fence and I got good entertainment out of it but the timeline for a huge rager and ER visit seemed a bit aggressive...

[Kevo]

The crazy thing is. Did you need to fly there to be face to face to close the deal?

Human contact is a big part of sales.
But it also seems too easy to jet across the world for a chit chat.
Maybe the new normal is more eco friendly for sales

A lot of my travel was spent opening up new offices and brining on our first clients in Asia and Europe. I did actually have to be there for that. For now I'm riding on the coattails of the face to face interactions that I've had over the years. At some point it would be nice to have a conference or something.

There was also a significant amount of posturing. There were several times where I flew across the world to be in person when something went sideways. Doing so showed commitment and saved a couple deals. For now at least there isn't an expectation of doing that. It's just not possible.

Maybe going forward the expectation to be in person won't be so strong. My company is definitely loving the 99% reduction in my expenses since the start of March.

[riser4]

Things are re-opening here in UT and Ms Boissal said she's never seen that many drunks rolled into the trauma bay. Apparently people felt the need to properly celebrate freedom after these incredibly constraining 3 weeks (heavy sarcasm here for those of you outside of UT who don't realize how little was actually done here as far as cooping people up). She said it's a nice change of pace from the increase in domestic violence victims they've been seeing during the "quarantine". She has this hilarious recording of a completely incoherent guy babbling on and on about his car (totaled). A nurse chimes in at some point to remind in that he's injured in the ER (easy to forget) and dude's response, after a perfectly-timed dramatic pause, is "that's cool man I don't give a fuck". I imagine the headache and the bill with change his mind fast... He's in a bertter position than the guy who threw all of his remaining $1 at the ambulance guys after he crashed his car driving away from the titty bar at least.

Our neighbors threw a party to celebrate things re-opening. Weather was nice, big BBQ in the yard, firepit going. They had cars parked all over the block and more than 50 people there. At first there was karaoke, then drunk karaoke, eventually hammered-as-shit karaoke, and finally get-in-a-fight-with-Bruce-over-the-mic karaoke. I was sitting on the back deck listening to these 2 dudes braying insults at each other over 80s hits and sure enough they got into it. Cops were called and eventually came to disperse the shitshow but not before Bruce ate shit in the firepit. Apparently he got some pretty gnarly burns on both hands. Neighbor's kids apologized to me the next morning, said there were a few unwanted friends who showed up late and created chaos. Nobody threw empties in our yard or puked over the fence and I got good entertainment out of it but the timeline for a huge rager and ER visit seemed a bit aggressive...

OMG. In stitches. You crack me up.

[DBdude]

I’m sorry, but when did Bill Gates become our leader?
He’s got an erection thinking about “contact tracing”....sorry bill. Im opting out.

Please do

A nice bunker perhaps


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[KQ]

This is my new theme song - sing it everyone!

[KenJongIll]

Forkin' A:

'COVID parties' hurt everyone


People who are intentionally flouting health recommendations by exposing themselves and others to COVID-19 are going to push reopening things here back, Walla Walla County health officials said today.

With today’s count, there are now 94 residents, including some Tyson Fresh Meats employees, who have been diagnosed with COVID-19.

The number includes 34 people who have recovered from and four people admitted to the hospital with the coronavirus, according to a news release.

Some of the county’s cases are stemming from people who have purposefully exposed themselves to the virus, said Meghan DeBolt, director of the county’s Department of Community Health.

Her investigative team has been told of local “COVID-19 parties,” where non-infected people mingle with an infected person in an effort to catch the virus, DeBolt said, calling the idea “terrible.”

When someone tests positive for the disease, he or she is asked to name who they’ve been in personal contact with. Those queries have revealed people here are grouping together for these parties, she said.

“We don’t know when it is happening. It’s after the fact that we hear from cases. We ask about contacts, and there are 25 people because: ‘We were at a COVID party.’”

New positive test results in the county have resulted from such gatherings, DeBolt said.

“It’s unacceptable. It’s irresponsible.”

At one time, chickenpox parties were popular among some families, she noted.

“But chickenpox is a well-understood virus. This virus is not. This virus is only 5 months old.”

There is documented evidence of cases of people who have recovered from the coronavirus, according to medical criterion, then tested positive for it once more, she said.

DeBolt said people touting a need to build herd immunity in the community by intentional exposure are ill informed.

“It’s a really poor excuse to be social,” she said.

Her agency will be reaching out to local law enforcement for help in breaking up COVID parties anytime it’s possible to stop such gatherings, DeBolt said, pointing out her staff can put people in involuntary quarantine to reduce risk to others.

“It is not an innocent endeavor, by any means. It really sets us back. In reopening the county, we look at not only total case count, but if our community is being diligent.”

Exposure parties are a picture of people not taking recommendations to stay apart seriously, she said.

“This will delay our community being able to reopen and get our economy operating. This is stupid … Walla Walla is better than that.”

Health experts don’t yet know if post-illness immunity is a sure thing, if reinfection is possible or if the virus can continue living inside the human body, DeBolt said.

What epidemiologists do know is that even children with COVID-19 might require hospitalization, survivors may suffer long-term damage and no case is “mild,” officials said.

The numbers of COVID-19 cases in Washington state reached 15,185 as of this morning, and 834 deaths have been attributed to the coronavirus.

The state’s virus map shows Yakima, Benton and Franklin counties among those just behind hardest-hit Snohomish and King counties in numbers of cases.

Umatilla County (OR) officials are today reporting 70 cases of the coronavirus, 11 of those newly confirmed.

One person is hospitalized from the disease; the county reported its first virus-affiliated death this weekend.

Oregon is reporting 2,759 cases and 109 deaths from the virus. Multnomah and Marion counties on the west side of the state have the highest number of Oregon cases so far, according to the Oregon Health Authority.

And you people look down on Southerners... (yeah I know, I’m sure it’s happening here too. I know a physician friend that suggested this for our kids back in March)

[Core Shot]

A lot of my travel was spent opening up new offices and brining on our first clients in Asia and Europe. I did actually have to be there for that. For now I'm riding on the coattails of the face to face interactions that I've had over the years. At some point it would be nice to have a conference or something.

There was also a significant amount of posturing. There were several times where I flew across the world to be in person when something went sideways. Doing so showed commitment and saved a couple deals. For now at least there isn't an expectation of doing that. It's just not possible.

Maybe going forward the expectation to be in person won't be so strong. My company is definitely loving the 99% reduction in my expenses since the start of March.

Cool. Good to hear real world experience.

My life experience is relationship sales.
But yeah, opening new markets requires contact.

[KenJongIll]

The crazy thing is. Did you need to fly there to be face to face to close the deal?

Human contact is a big part of sales.
But it also seems too easy to jet across the world for a chit chat.
Maybe the new normal is more eco friendly for sales

Inside sales becomes the new outside sales...not sure I’d like that (in the long run), and not sure it would even be possible in my industry.

[KenJongIll]

Please do

A nice bunker perhaps


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

I want to build a big nice bunker...but with the earth being flat and all, not sure there’s enough depth for my needs.

[muted]

Things are re-opening here in UT and Ms Boissal said she's never seen that many drunks rolled into the trauma bay. Apparently people felt the need to properly celebrate freedom after these incredibly constraining 3 weeks (heavy sarcasm here for those of you outside of UT who don't realize how little was actually done here as far as cooping people up). She said it's a nice change of pace from the increase in domestic violence victims they've been seeing during the "quarantine". She has this hilarious recording of a completely incoherent guy babbling on and on about his car (totaled). A nurse chimes in at some point to remind in that he's injured in the ER (easy to forget) and dude's response, after a perfectly-timed dramatic pause, is "that's cool man I don't give a fuck". I imagine the headache and the bill with change his mind fast... He's in a bertter position than the guy who threw all of his remaining $1 at the ambulance guys after he crashed his car driving away from the titty bar at least.

Our neighbors threw a party to celebrate things re-opening. Weather was nice, big BBQ in the yard, firepit going. They had cars parked all over the block and more than 50 people there. At first there was karaoke, then drunk karaoke, eventually hammered-as-shit karaoke, and finally get-in-a-fight-with-Bruce-over-the-mic karaoke. I was sitting on the back deck listening to these 2 dudes braying insults at each other over 80s hits and sure enough they got into it. Cops were called and eventually came to disperse the shitshow but not before Bruce ate shit in the firepit. Apparently he got some pretty gnarly burns on both hands. Neighbor's kids apologized to me the next morning, said there were a few unwanted friends who showed up late and created chaos. Nobody threw empties in our yard or puked over the fence and I got good entertainment out of it but the timeline for a huge rager and ER visit seemed a bit aggressive...

Ha! But I don't really understand how there were not more drunk accidents at home during quarantine. Liquor sales have been skyrocketing lately. (In no small part, thanks to me)

[Mustonen]

Fucking zombies.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/europ...ntl/index.html

[Boissal]

A lot of my travel was spent opening up new offices and brining on our first clients in Asia and Europe. I did actually have to be there for that. For now I'm riding on the coattails of the face to face interactions that I've had over the years. At some point it would be nice to have a conference or something.

There was also a significant amount of posturing. There were several times where I flew across the world to be in person when something went sideways. Doing so showed commitment and saved a couple deals. For now at least there isn't an expectation of doing that. It's just not possible.

Maybe going forward the expectation to be in person won't be so strong. My company is definitely loving the 99% reduction in my expenses since the start of March.

The startup I work for is struggling right now to close a series B and it's very much because of the lack of face to face interaction. We have the interested parties lined up, the scientific teams have done their due diligence, everything is good to go on paper, but the inability of sitting the C-level peeps down in the same room has slowed things down dramatically. Realistically at this stage of the conversation all that's left is for these guys to sniff each other's butt, assess the firmness of their respective grips when they shake hands, and get the right gut feeling. Nobody's willing to do that shit over a Zoom call.

Strangely enough all of the B&D and Sales people are more active now via email/telecon than they've ever been with their monthly or quarterly visits (which is basically about shooting the shit about new product and make vague commitments). They seem psyched not to have to travel, especially the international guys who come from India and roam their territory (10+ states) for 15 days straight before going back home and repeating the process a month later.

Ha! But I don't really understand how there were not more drunk accidents at home during quarantine. Liquor sales have been skyrocketing lately. (In no small part, thanks to me)

It is shocking for sure. I personally came close a couple of times when working on various home projects with the help of a few beers. I'm cool with shitty liquor store brews but Ms Boissal raided the liquor store before things got bad and brought home as much as wine as we bought for our wedding. I thought about getting a 6-pack of the good stuff a few times and gave up when seeing the mile-long line wrapped around the store each time. Gotta admire the dedication of standing in the pouring rain with 45 people in front of you got get that handle of Sailor Jerry...

[mall walker]

Ha! But I don't really understand how there were not more drunk accidents at home during quarantine. Liquor sales have been skyrocketing lately. (In no small part, thanks to me)

I prefer to think of it as “bolstering the economy”

[Benny Profane]

Honestly this whole work from home thing is pretty awesome. Having spent the past 5+ years traveling nonstop for work I'm really enjoying not flying and not commuting. I was averaging 200 hours of flight time per year and probably another 80 hours of time spent at airports or on my way to airports. Add in a 40 minute each way commute for when I was at the office and I must have gained back 450 hours a year of time that was wasted previously.

I'd gladly do this WFH thing forever if it didn't mean the collapse of the global economy and hundreds of thousands of people being killed.

I referenced this in the real estate crash thread. This is a sea change in the commercial and residential RE market, and the airline and hotel business. And I type this on the same day that asshole who started Wework, the most useless business idea at the moment, is sueing for his 2 billion buyout. What a joke.

[KenJongIll]

Fucking zombies.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/europ...ntl/index.html

What the fuck?

[Benny Profane]

Things are re-opening here in UT and Ms Boissal said she's never seen that many drunks rolled into the trauma bay. Apparently people felt the need to properly celebrate freedom after these incredibly constraining 3 weeks (heavy sarcasm here for those of you outside of UT who don't realize how little was actually done here as far as cooping people up). She said it's a nice change of pace from the increase in domestic violence victims they've been seeing during the "quarantine". She has this hilarious recording of a completely incoherent guy babbling on and on about his car (totaled). A nurse chimes in at some point to remind in that he's injured in the ER (easy to forget) and dude's response, after a perfectly-timed dramatic pause, is "that's cool man I don't give a fuck". I imagine the headache and the bill with change his mind fast... He's in a bertter position than the guy who threw all of his remaining $1 at the ambulance guys after he crashed his car driving away from the titty bar at least.

Our neighbors threw a party to celebrate things re-opening. Weather was nice, big BBQ in the yard, firepit going. They had cars parked all over the block and more than 50 people there. At first there was karaoke, then drunk karaoke, eventually hammered-as-shit karaoke, and finally get-in-a-fight-with-Bruce-over-the-mic karaoke. I was sitting on the back deck listening to these 2 dudes braying insults at each other over 80s hits and sure enough they got into it. Cops were called and eventually came to disperse the shitshow but not before Bruce ate shit in the firepit. Apparently he got some pretty gnarly burns on both hands. Neighbor's kids apologized to me the next morning, said there were a few unwanted friends who showed up late and created chaos. Nobody threw empties in our yard or puked over the fence and I got good entertainment out of it but the timeline for a huge rager and ER visit seemed a bit aggressive...

Move

[bodywhomper]

The new healthdata.org projections bums me out. my better half took an attitude of, maybe it'll be a viewed as a call to decisionmakers to tighen things up better,but i don't know.

fatality rate increases that caught my eye: CA, FL, and several other states doubled. NY from 24k to 32k, Pennsylvania from 2.4k to 8.6k AL went up ~7.5x.... and this isn't accounting for all the stupid fucks that are blatantly and intentionally disregarding mandates, nor places today or in the next few weeks that are opening things up more. Many that I speak to that are intelligent and critical thinkers seems to be forgetting that it will likely be several weeks before we see the effects of the shit that went down this weekend or the opening of restaurants this week or next weekend. :sigh: