Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[powpig]

'It's just the flu.'

Isn't that what the CDC said over the weekend?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...05-01-2020.pdf

The CDC's weekly update on May 1, for the week ending April 25 compares the Covid to the Seasonal Flu.

Yup, you read that right.

Even though we've heard repeatedly (and some are still repeating it) over the past few months that, "it's not the Flu", that's just been contradicted by the CDC.

The overall cumulative COVID-19 associated hospitalization rate is 40.4 per 100,000, with the highest rates in people 65 years and older (131.6 per 100,000) and 50-64 years (63.7 per 100,000).

o Hospitalization rates for COVID-19 in adults (18-64 years) are higher than hospitalization rates for influenza at comparable time points* during the past 5 influenza seasons.

o For people 65 years and older, current COVID-19 hospitalization rates are similar to those observed during comparable time points* during recent high severity influenza seasons.

o For children (0-17 years), COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than influenza hospitalization rates during recent influenza seasons.

For the elderly, the over 65 crowd who is at the greatest risk, the CDC states the "hospitalization rates are similar".


The CDC death count for Covid, just released today, May 4, for results through May 2, is 38,576. It's slightly more than half the 68K reported just about everywhere else

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

[AK47bp]

Surely, there was a better way to phrase that joke.

Of course there was, and don’t call him Surely.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Ted Striker]

61% if us did. And those of you who didn't don't count as citizens or human beings IMO. We all got what you deserved.

That was more of a quip than math, but six out of ten is still pretty thin.

I get pissed by the non-voters complaints as well - chief among them being "not participating in a system that doesn't represent me". Fucking irony much?

[Mazderati]

Isn't that what the CDC said over the weekend?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...05-01-2020.pdf

The CDC's weekly update on May 1, for the week ending April 25 compares the Covid to the Seasonal Flu.

Yup, you read that right.

Even though we've heard repeatedly (and some are still repeating it) over the past few months that, "it's not the Flu", that's just been contradicted by the CDC.




For the elderly, the over 65 crowd who is at the greatest risk, the CDC states the "hospitalization rates are similar".


The CDC death count for Covid, just released today, May 4, for results through May 2, is 38,576. It's slightly more than half the 68K reported just about everywhere else

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

[KQ]

Disney Is Making Adorable Character Face Masks—and Donating the Profits

Disney unveils new cloth face masks, to donate up to $1 million in profits to MedShare

[mall walker]

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/05/...ompany-claims/ contact tracing is of course all about the greater good right

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

I'll say it again.

This dystopia sucks.

[Tri-Ungulate]

Well, yeah, but, as I said, wouldn't it be interesting if cancer deaths only went up a little over the next few years, even if screenings, and therefore, treatment resulting from screenings dropped dramatically. It will something to watch. Ya have to wonder how many Porsches were bought with unecessary treatments.

Depends on what you mean by "a little". I suspect there will be a small but perhaps noticeable increase in cancer-related morbidity/mortality due to some being caught later than they could have, had appropriate screening been in place.

Current cancer screening guidelines are ostensibly based on the science we have available balancing risk of disease and benefits of early detection vs risks of the studies themselves in terms of cost, radiation (if using Xrays), or biopsy, as well as the risk of "unnecessary treatments" (which would generally be unlikely, as an oncologist treating a patient without confirmed disease could be grounds for malpractice - not to say it doesn't happen). But as you might imagine, cancer screening has its own plethora of sensitivity/specificity issues, just as we're discussing in re: SARS CoV 2 testing.

[muted]

'It's just the flu.'

And we all had it in January, so we good.

[bodywhomper]

I do know her--or did 35 years ago, when she was briefly our FP/OB before we switched insurance to Kaiser. She became the public health director in Sacramento County. Surprised to see her as a deputy in Nevada County--probably wanted to move to Oldhippyville and work part time. She's good people.

Problem is the word theory. To a scientist it means a concept that is supported by evidence. To a lay person it means what hypothesis means to a scientist--something yet to be supported by evidence. We should discuss the word proven as well. No theory is ever proven in science, only in math. In science a theory is assumed to be correct only until it is supplanted or modified by the next theory--Newton's theory of gravity replaced by Einstein's. Which is why you should pay no attention to anything I say--my medical knowledge gets older by the day.

I get it, and we’re on the same page. The manipulation and understanding of the term “theory,” especially when used in the context of science, is commonly manipulated by the anti-vax crowd to cause confusion and social distortion. This is a known strategy of the anti-vaxers (“it’s only a theory, man. That’s just an opinion.”) It’s happening here and now related to information about covid-19. I’m not sure if the good doctor is aware of this special problem in her population.

[The AD]

Meanwhile Trump said last night that the death count will be 75k-100k. Sheeeit, we'll be over 100k before Memorial Day. No way there will be less than 250k dead by Dec. 31 and 300k-500k by then seems plausible.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN22G1T3

The strategy will be to just keep moving the goalposts as we get closer to each new estimate. We've come a ways since “And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.” (Trump on 2/26)

[Benny Profane]

Depends on what you mean by "a little". I suspect there will be a small but perhaps noticeable increase in cancer-related morbidity/mortality due to some being caught later than they could have, had appropriate screening been in place.

Current cancer screening guidelines are ostensibly based on the science we have available balancing risk of disease and benefits of early detection vs risks of the studies themselves in terms of cost, radiation (if using Xrays), or biopsy, as well as the risk of "unnecessary treatments" (which would generally be unlikely, as an oncologist treating a patient without confirmed disease could be grounds for malpractice - not to say it doesn't happen). But as you might imagine, cancer screening has its own plethora of sensitivity/specificity issues, just as we're discussing in re: SARS CoV 2 testing.

I think our present medical system profits greatly off of hypochondria and bad lifestyle choices.

[Core Shot]

I’d say this wave is an overhead northern WA winter swell on a shit beach break with a 20-knot onshore wind and short 7 second gap before the next mush pile smashes into you.

Watch out for the beach logs.

Nice touch with the beach logs.
Fucking short period sandbar waves ain’t bad enough. Watch for logs. Lol.

[Tri-Ungulate]

I think our present medical system profits greatly off of hypochondria and bad lifestyle choices.

So is what you're saying that cancer screening is unnecessary and part of the great Cancer Conspiracy to line the pockets of the medical e$tablis$hment?

[Lone Star]

The CDC death count for Covid, just released today, May 4, for results through May 2, is 38,576. It's slightly more than half the 68K reported just about everywhere else

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

is 1-2 weeks a lot?

[wooley12]

CDC takes weekends off so I'm hearing. What's the rush? The Boss likes the numbers. They like to keep their jobs.

[Ottime]

Nice touch with the beach logs.
Fucking short period sandbar waves ain’t bad enough. Watch for logs. Lol.

Most sandbars prefer shorter periods. Not 7 seconds, but not 15 seconds either. 10-12 is the magic period for most sandbar waves. Of course, there are some that can rock out on the long period, but not sure how many hellmen here are paddling out at Puerto.

Curious, are you dissing on sandbars? Myself, I prefer ledges, but sandbars produce some of the best fucking waves in the world.

What is this thread about? Oh, yeah, I read somewhere that COVID floats on top of salt water and gets aerosolized when the waves break. Worse in long period waves. On reefs. It was just a hypothesis, not a theory.

[old goat]

Isn't that what the CDC said over the weekend?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...05-01-2020.pdf

The CDC's weekly update on May 1, for the week ending April 25 compares the Covid to the Seasonal Flu.

Yup, you read that right.

Even though we've heard repeatedly (and some are still repeating it) over the past few months that, "it's not the Flu", that's just been contradicted by the CDC.




For the elderly, the over 65 crowd who is at the greatest risk, the CDC states the "hospitalization rates are similar".


The CDC death count for Covid, just released today, May 4, for results through May 2, is 38,576. It's slightly more than half the 68K reported just about everywhere else

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

total for covid and covid+pneumonia is 55,000.
38,500 covid deaths vs 5900 influenza deaths hardly seems comparable. the problem with the CDC stats, besides the time lag, is how they are counting death diagnoses--the influenza number seems very low. there is no category for influenza + pneumonia, but there is one for covid, or pneumonia or influenza. Some of the missing influenza deaths are in there.
as far as hospitalization hard to make much out of that, since there is a concerted effort to keep people out of the hospital unless absolutely necessary. Hospitalizations could increase if remdesivir and other intravenous agents are used routinely early in the course for people who are not currently being admitted--the daily IV dose could be given at home, but there probably aren't enough visiting nurses to do it.
then there are the excess deaths in the CDC link--66,000, compared to expected. the expected would include flu. And the excess is lowered by the reduced trauma deaths which is due to mitigation efforts.

the best way to assess the impact of covid 19 is to talk to the people taking care of the patients.

[truckeelocal]

IMHE just doubled their estimated deaths. And they're showing that we're not on the downslope. Yay !

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

"Based on our updated model and latest available data, a projected 134,475 cumulative COVID-19 deaths (estimate range of 95,092 to 242,890) could occur in the US through August. These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies into transmission dynamics."

Oh, and 538 says IMHE is conservative on their estimates. It's going to be a long hot summer (if the scientists are to be believed)

[KenJongIll]

The IMHE model has been confusing. I know they just tweaked it, so let’s see if it more consistent now.

Oh, and can you point to the 538 article? The one I found came out prior to the IMHE update.

[iceman]

wasn't their projected deaths before the update around 68K? Pretty radical jump from that. They changed their presentation all around too, it seems more confusing at first look.

[truckeelocal]

Oh, and can you point to the 538 article? The one I found came out prior to the IMHE update.

I'm guessing we're looking at the same article ... https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo
and their new estimates have not been reflected in the article (which has been updated today)
"The IHME model is the most optimistic"

[huckbucket]

JHU didn't want that 3K/day rate used as a prediction.

[old goat]

Someone at the CDC doesn't think it's just the flu
https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...691_story.html
"A draft government report projects covid-19 cases will surge to about 200,000 per day by June 1, a staggering jump that would be accompanied by more than 3,000 deaths each day."
Someone at the CDC will be out of a job soon.

Disclaimer--all statistics, projections, and models are garbage at this point.

[Rideski]

YOU CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH

.