Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[garyfromterrace]

I'm giving up drinking until this is over.

Edit: bad punctuation

I'm giving up. Drinking until this is over.

In. Well played buddy. Good luck down there!

[huckbucket]

Mainstream news report. Doctors in Bakersfield area calling bullshit on quarantines and how deaths are being reported. Wake up sheep and take off that ridiculous mask.

What they did was simple: they looked at the fraction of patients who tested positive for #COVID19 at the clinics they own. They found 340 out of 5213 tests were postive, about 6.6%. Then they assume the same fraction of the whole population are infected.

From there, they scale up to the state level and claim 12% incidence statewide. The news story says it is using the same calculation, but it can't be—how did they get from 6.6% to 12%? Perhaps they estimating infected *ever* versus infected *currently*. It's not clear.

Using that 12% infected figure, and a known 1400 deaths in California, they assume 1400 out of 4.7 million have died. That gives them an infection fatality rate of 0.03%. That is, they think that if 10,000 are infected, 3 will die on average.

The problem with this approach is that during a pandemic, the people who come into an urgent care clinic are not a random sample of the population. A large fraction of them are coming in precisely because they suspect that they have the disease. This generates sampling bias.

Estimating that fraction infected from patients at an urgent care facility is a bit like estimating the average height of Americans from the players on an NBA court. It's not a random sample, and it gives a highly biased estimate. Moreover the estimate does not pass even a basic plausibility check. In New York City, 12,067 people are known to have died from the virus, out of a population of 8.4 million. This is a rate of 0.14% of all people. Not just infected people. All people. That gives us a lower bound on the death rate in New York. Not an estimate, a lower bound. The death rate for infected people is obviously higher than 0.14%, because not everyone in New York has been infected. And yet that 0.14% lower bound is nearly *five times as high* as the 0.03% that the Bakerfield duo are claiming. They've used absurd methodology to arrive at an implausible number.

[twat]

What they did was simple: they looked at the fraction of patients who tested positive for #COVID19 at the clinics they own. They found 340 out of 5213 tests were postive, about 6.6%. Then they assume the same fraction of the whole population are infected.

From there, they scale up to the state level and claim 12% incidence statewide. The news story says it is using the same calculation, but it can't be—how did they get from 6.6% to 12%? Perhaps they estimating infected *ever* versus infected *currently*. It's not clear.

Using that 12% infected figure, and a known 1400 deaths in California, they assume 1400 out of 4.7 million have died. That gives them an infection fatality rate of 0.03%. That is, they think that if 10,000 are infected, 3 will die on average.

The problem with this approach is that during a pandemic, the people who come into an urgent care clinic are not a random sample of the population. A large fraction of them are coming in precisely because they suspect that they have the disease. This generates sampling bias.

Estimating that fraction infected from patients at an urgent care facility is a bit like estimating the average height of Americans from the players on an NBA court. It's not a random sample, and it gives a highly biased estimate. Moreover the estimate does not pass even a basic plausibility check. In New York City, 12,067 people are known to have died from the virus, out of a population of 8.4 million. This is a rate of 0.14% of all people. Not just infected people. All people. That gives us a lower bound on the death rate in New York. Not an estimate, a lower bound. The death rate for infected people is obviously higher than 0.14%, because not everyone in New York has been infected. And yet that 0.14% lower bound is nearly *five times as high* as the 0.03% that the Bakerfield duo are claiming. They've used absurd methodology to arrive at an implausible number.

that´s some interesting numbers but the bulletproof argument of healthcare workers.
will they be affected in the same percentage??? is the virus as lethal to hcw then to the rest of the population???

[donutlynx]

Damnit! Funny still

Sent from my SPH-L710 using TGR Forums mobile app

Yeah I got a good chuckle out of that.

[Rideski]

that´s some interesting numbers but the bulletproof argument of healthcare workers.
will they be affected in the same percentage??? is the virus as lethal to hcw then to the rest of the population???

I heard, "Son, do you know why I'm stopping you for?"
'Cause I'm young and I'm black and my hat's real low?
Do I look like a mind reader, sir? I don't know
Am I under arrest or should I guess some more?
"Well, you was doing 55 in a 54“

[huckbucket]

Hmmm ... looks like the reported death counts may be on the low side.

[The SnowShow]

Based on the adventures people are posting on my social media today, looks like most everyone who’s not in the northeast has moved on. People are over this. Social distancing? What’s that?

[MakersTeleMark]

Based on the adventures people are posting on my social media today, looks like most everyone who’s not in the northeast has moved on. People are over this. Social distancing? What’s that?

This is my observation here locally as well. We are well into the fuck it it's over phase. General consensus is if you haven't got it by now you are good to go. Or, you already did.

Full on old normal. Not judging either way, but thems the facts.

[bennymac]

Show me on the doll where the Covid hurt you.
Stay scared bitch.

Hey BG - I want you to know it was me that got you banned

[Lone Star]

Based on the adventures people are posting on my social media today, looks like most everyone who’s not in the northeast has moved on. People are over this. Social distancing? What’s that?

Basketball games? Gyms? Churches and bars? Or photos where you see hundreds of acres of wild land in the background but no people?

[wooley12]

Locally we're having pick up truck freedom parades.

[Benny Profane]

Locally we're having pick up truck freedom parades.

I predict a million deaths worldwide pretty soon, with America leading the developed world. It may get so bad that many countries will close us off from entry.

[Lone Star]

end of next month or.... december?

[Benny Profane]

Before 2021.

A ton of the dead will never be counted.

[rideit]

Like we didn’t know that scarf-lady was a sycophantic boot-licker before this...

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavi...6aq-story.html

[Benny Profane]

Mark Cuban just said on CNN that we have a "moral obligation" to continue NBA competition somehow. He used the phrase twice. Second time for emphasis.
This is why I'm so happy that this whole sports and entertainment adoring culture has been shut down. Shut the fuck up.

[gravitylover]

It was a mix of masked and unmasked today. The restaurant we got bkfst from nobody was masked and when the owner brought the order to the car he wasn't either 😳 Lowes was mixed also but more with masks than without. Those were both in Danbury where there was more traffic on the local streets than I expected but the Interstate was empty.

Here in NY everyone has a mask but more than half are just letting it hang so their nose is open and when they talk their mouths are exposed. Fkn scary...

I was pretty relaxed about that until I checked the websites of the two Massachusetts stores I use, and found out that .... There's no rec sales! Right now. Uh oh.

He don't sell no cheeba chews. Benny don't smoke.

Yeah well ya might have to. If you know anyone with a CT medical card they have good edibles and it's less than Mass recreational prices by a lot. If you are willing to go back to smoking the Sativa the Danbury dispensary has is fuckin good and relatively cheap, I think a half ounce is under $100. My med card connection is too busy with work right now so I'm not bothering her but a guy I know over here is getting overflow production from Massachusetts commercial growers. It's really good and only a wee bit more than CT med prices.

[54-46]

This is my observation here locally as well. We are well into the fuck it it's over phase. General consensus is if you haven't got it by now you are good to go. Or, you already did.

Full on old normal. Not judging either way, but thems the facts.

Yep; went on MTB ride today and people didn’t GAF.

But... where’s the testing?

[mall walker]

Mark Cuban just said on CNN that we have a "moral obligation" to continue NBA competition somehow. He used the phrase twice. Second time for emphasis.
This is why I'm so happy that this whole sports and entertainment adoring culture has been shut down. Shut the fuck up.

lol relax

[SuperGaper]

Like we didn’t know that scarf-lady was a sycophantic boot-licker before this...

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavi...6aq-story.html

Pretty unfair. Would you prefer she say Trump is an idiot, get fired and one less expert to deal with this?

There is no way she likes or respects Trump, she is doing this out of a sense of duty to her country.

Imagine the stress of dealing with this job and the frustration that your boss is a fool.

[Benny Profane]

It was a mix of masked and unmasked today. The restaurant we got bkfst from nobody was masked and when the owner brought the order to the car he wasn't either [emoji15] Lowes was mixed also but more with masks than without. Those were both in Danbury where there was more traffic on the local streets than I expected but the Interstate was empty.

Here in NY everyone has a mask but more than half are just letting it hang so their nose is open and when they talk their mouths are exposed. Fkn scary...





Yeah well ya might have to. If you know anyone with a CT medical card they have good edibles and it's less than Mass recreational prices by a lot. If you are willing to go back to smoking the Sativa the Danbury dispensary has is fuckin good and relatively cheap, I think a half ounce is under $100. My med card connection is too busy with work right now so I'm not bothering her but a guy I know over here is getting overflow production from Massachusetts commercial growers. It's really good and only a wee bit more than CT med prices.

Whoa. I did not know CT. Has med stores.


My back really hurts.

[Benny Profane]

Pretty unfair. Would you prefer she say Trump is an idiot, get fired and one less expert to deal with this?

There is no way she likes or respects Trump, she is doing this out of a sense of duty to her country.

Imagine the stress of dealing with this job and the frustration that your boss is a fool.

This.

I trust her. For some reason.

[huckbucket]

Pretty unfair. Would you prefer she say Trump is an idiot, get fired and one less expert to deal with this?

There is no way she likes or respects Trump, she is doing this out of a sense of duty to her country.

Imagine the stress of dealing with this job and the frustration that your boss is a fool.

Agreed although I'd like to see her push back more even if it makes her a martyr.

[The SnowShow]

Basketball games? Gyms? Churches and bars? Or photos where you see hundreds of acres of wild land in the background but no people?

Kayakers, bikers and some on the beach in SoCal.

[wooley12]

I agree that the MSM should STFU about day old buffoonery.