Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Rideski]

[iceman]

See what I mean about the Italians?

[Benny Profane]

Somewhere a Kennedy nods.

[SkiCougar]

Really hoping that Inslee doesn't allow construction to resume prior to May 4.

you have no construction.

that's the one thing I see in Houston working daily myself, road and housing construction; no sure how road construction is exempt, you cannot exactly social distance working with concrete and you have the public passing you all day long, many with windows down.

[Boissal]

The Ingraham Guiliani combo is something to behold. Two of the dumbest cunts to ever walk this earth combining their brain powers on-air to out-stupid even the ginger waffle himself. If there was a fucking god you know he'd have smitten these 2 twats already. Good thing idiocy doesn't kill or the population of this country would drop to 150MM real fast.

[bennymac]

I said it back 300 pages or so ago - our “vaccine” is gonna be drinking a less virulent form of covid (or butt chugging it) - thereby inducing a hopefully mild infection and then at least some length of time with “immunity”. Drive-up enema stations could be an option. Get a free car wash and detailing coupon can be a loss leader.

[glademaster]

you have no construction.

Uh, what?

I think construction work is a great breeding/point of transmission for the virus. I also don't think there is anything even remotely essential about Toll Brothers building a bunch of $900,000 McMansions on 1/6 of an acre lots. That shit can fucking wait.

There's minimal sanitation, you have large numbers of people sharing vehicles, and you have subs from a wide geographic area driving all over the region to various job sites, where they interact with a bunch of people, shit in a port-a-can that doesn't have any hand sani in it and gets used by 100 people a week, then go out to the grocery store to grab lunch and a dart, back to the jobsite, then into a dirty truck with 3 other dudes, repeat.

[Bozo T. Clown]

Fred Hutch scientist Trevor Bedford, who is cited a lot for his genetic mapping of the virus, says a lack of genetic diversity suggests an emergence in Wuhan, China sometime in Nov 2019. If it was earlier than that, we would see more mutations and more genetic diversity.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?c...:B1&r=division

The error built into the early assessments gave a range October 7 to Dec 15, with a likelihood of Nov17. Some studies push this back 2 to 3 more weeks into early November with a range Sept 15-23 to Dec 1 for the earliest likelihood.

Thanks guys, makes sense.
I won't sweat them finding a genome sample from before December 10, or refining their estimates of circulation before the first sample.

I also like his FAQs,
https://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/ce...r-bedford.html





70 vaccines in development, in all categories. Wow.
My main takeaway is that the human immune system is really, really complicated.
Maybe an antibody only vaccine will work.
Maybe some of them will turn out to give protection to people who would have little to mild symptoms.
At around 18:38 this guy replies that, "... a lot of us think that having a T cell response is really critical to have along with the antibody response."
https://medicine.uiowa.edu/microbiol...tanley-perlman
https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-602/
Seems like a reasonable guess that it'd be important given immunosenescence,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunosenescence
Immunosenescence and human vaccine immune responses
https://immunityageing.biomedcentral...979-019-0164-9


I'll be watching the race between,
antivirals + masks + testing + contact tracing + some population immunity
and
a safe and effective vaccine

[SkiCougar]

The Ingraham Guiliani combo is something to behold. Two of the dumbest cunts to ever walk this earth combining their brain powers on-air to out-stupid even the ginger waffle himself. If there was a fucking god you know he'd have smitten these 2 twats already. Good thing idiocy doesn't kill or the population of this country would drop to 150MM real fast.

and where did you go to school ? laura went to Dartmouth and Virginia law, two of the best in the nation; and I'm pretty sure she got into both on her own merit, I do not know about rudy.

I realize you have personal bents against her, but not dumb. I have bents against maddow, but I do not deny she's wicked smart.

[SorryBro]

Uh, what?

I think construction work is a great breeding/point of transmission for the virus. I also don't think there is anything even remotely essential about Toll Brothers building a bunch of $900,000 McMansions on 1/6 of an acre lots. That shit can fucking wait.

There's minimal sanitation, you have large numbers of people sharing vehicles, and you have subs from a wide geographic area driving all over the region to various job sites, where they interact with a bunch of people, shit in a port-a-can that doesn't have any hand sani in it and gets used by 100 people a week, then go out to the grocery store to grab lunch and a dart, back to the jobsite, then into a dirty truck with 3 other dudes, repeat.

My bet is he opens it up Monday, May 4th with restrictions like hot water washing stations, hand sanitizer, and mandatory masks. A few of my projects were considered "essential" and have continued through the shutdown with these provisions in place. Also limited number of crews on site.

Who knows what he will say, but owners are losing money and we know that means pressure on people making these decisions. My life won't change as I'm going to remote work as long as possible to keep danger to my family low.

[mall walker]

what is everyone making of these antibody studies in NY / CA suggesting a real fatality rate of more like 0.1-0.5%?

[glademaster]

My bet is he opens it up Monday, May 4th with restrictions like hot water washing stations, hand sanitizer, and mandatory masks. A few of my projects were considered "essential" and have continued through the shutdown with these provisions in place. Also limited number of crews on site.

Who knows what he will say, but owners are losing money and we know that means pressure on people making these decisions. My life won't change as I'm going to remote work as long as possible to keep danger to my family low.

That would be reasonable, given the pressure I'm sure he's under. I just hope he doesn't waver and say that things can resume 4/27, which is what everyone in office is assuming is going to happen. My boss already asked me to prepare to resume normal field and office work as of that date, so we'll see.

Damn near everyone is losing money right now, I have zero sympathy for anyone working in any construction related field who is clamoring to get back to work instead of doing what is in the best interest of public safety. Those folks can lose every cent they have and drop dead.

[Benny Profane]

and where did you go to school ? laura went to Dartmouth and Virginia law, two of the best in the nation; and I'm pretty sure she got into both on her own merit, I do not know about rudy.

I realize you have personal bents against her, but not dumb. I have bents against maddow, but I do not deny she's wicked smart.

Did you bang your head on your crib headboard a lot as an infant? Or were you just dropped daily?

[BmillsSkier]

Was thinking similar. Wonder how long until the used car market gets flooded? Have been looking for a 911 but nothing has changed much over the past month as far as pricing and inventory.

I usually take a look at BaT; ebay motors and the like once or twice a week just to see what things are going for in the Pcar world. I have noticed zero drop in price since this started.

Will that change? I don't know, but I bet Bobby Stainless could tell us.

[Benny Profane]

Too early. Denial is the first stage of grief.

[KQ]

People figuring that it's just a matter of time before a vaccine eliminates the problem should consider that--
There are a number of viral diseases where the immune system is not able to clear the virus--HIV, Hepatitis C, varicella/zoster (chickenpox/shingles) are examples. Despite decades of work there is no vaccine for the first two. (Hepatitis C can be cleared by an antiviral drug in most cases. Zoster can be prevented from causing clinical shingles by a vaccine). The point being that the immune system is not all-powerful and that we cannot assume there will be a vaccine. Making a vaccine is easy, making one that works isn't.

Newscasters, including on PBS, interviewing scientists frequently allude to the "fact" that it will take a year to 18 months to develop a vaccine, when in truth that is the minimum time it will take, if the effort is ever successful. Lies and false assurances, assuming the public can't handle the truth harms credibility in the long run and leads to widespread backlash when the promised breakthrough fails to materialize. If we had been told the truth about masks from the beginning we wouldn't have airplanes with half the people not wearing masks. If we had told from the beginning that stay at home might need to last for months and had Congress begun providing relief to business and the unemployed from the beginning we would not be having the protests and premature reopenings now. I remember thinking when schools were closed "for two weeks" that the people in charge had to know that 2 weeks would not be nearly enough. Even now, stay at home orders are extended for short periods of time when they should be indefinite.

Cuomo, on The Daily Show the other night, made the point that he was honest about how bad the pandemic would be from the beginning so that New Yorkers would comply with stay-at-home, since he knew that the order couldn't be enforced without voluntary compliance. Now New York has declining cases while other places with less severe outbreaks have still-growing cases.

This old town is filled with sin it'll swallow you in
If you've got some money to burn
Take it home right away, you've got three years to pay
But Satan is waiting his turn

This old earthquake's gonna leave me in the poorhouse
It seems like this whole town's insane
On the thirty-first floor a gold-plated door
Won't keep out the Lord's burning rain

The scientists say it'll all wash away
But we don't believe anymore
'Cause we've got our recruits and our green mohair suits
So please show your I.D. at the door

This old earthquake's gonna leave me in the poorhouse
It seems like this whole town's insane
On the thirty-first floor a gold-plated door
Won't keep out the Lord's burning rain

A fool came around tried to clean up this town
His ideas made some people mad
He trusted his crowd so he spoke right out loud
And they lost the best friend they had

On the thirty-first floor your gold-plated door
Won't keep out the Lord's burning rain

[altasnob]

what is everyone making of these antibody studies in NY / CA suggesting a real fatality rate of more like 0.1-0.5%?

Where are you getting those fatality rates from? Trevor Bedford estimates the NY study showing an infection fatality rate between .5 to 1% (25 to 80 times that of seasonal flu).

[Buster Highmen]

Where are you getting those fatality rates from? Trevor Bedford estimates the NY study showing an infection fatality rate of 1% (greater than 80 times that of seasonal flu).

Cuomo yesterday said the NY fatality rate appears to be more around .5% IF THE TESTS ARE ACCURATE.

That's still 5x conventional flu death rate.

[mall walker]

^ the santa clara study was the low end, on mobile so cant find it atm. will look later. either way - just curious if these studies are generally considered BS or not, they seem v different than what I've been hearing prior to recently

Cuomo yesterday said the NY fatality rate appears to be more around .5% IF THE TESTS ARE ACCURATE.

That's still 5x conventional flu death rate.

ya this was kinda what I was wondering. how much stock are people putting in these tests

IF the death rate is 5x conventional flu, it seems like a much different thing than the 5% fatality rate that we've been operating under the assumption of yeah?

[Boissal]

and where did you go to school ? laura went to Dartmouth and Virginia law, two of the best in the nation; and I'm pretty sure she got into both on her own merit, I do not know about rudy.

I realize you have personal bents against her, but not dumb. I have bents against maddow, but I do not deny she's wicked smart.

Bitch please. If you want to play the education/degree card I'm pretty fucking sure a PhD + postdoc in medicinal chemistry from top-tier US schools trumps a JD when it comes to understanding things such as "tracers". At the very least I'd have done a better job of USING WORDS THAT MEAN SOMETHING, unlike these two fucking idiots. And more to the point you don't hear me rambling incoherently about legal matters because that's not my domain of expertise. If I had to discuss that on national TV I'd invite an expert, ask questions, nod, and keep my ignorant mouth shut.
And BTW, I can tell you that as a foreigner there's no other way to get into a US school than on your own fucking merit...

Ingraham may not be dumb but she certainly isn't smart. She illustrates that fact ever time she opens her fucking mouth about topics she knows nothing about. Which is pretty much every fucking times she opens her mouth about anything. Rudy hasn't been able to articulate a thought in months, I don't think there's any doubt about the state of his mushy brain.

Did you go to school? At all? There's gotta be a reason you're consistently showing yourself to be one of the stupidest fucks on here...

[Buster Highmen]

Also, I give a shit that Tri-U feels that the thread title is inappropriate.

For one, Tri-U is an upstanding guy.
For two, alienating him and other AZ folks occludes valuable and pertinent information regarding COVID.
For three, c'mon people, if we're the best nation on Earth, we can be better than that.

[muted]

At the time, USAMRIID was conducting work with Ebola and the agents known to cause Tularemia, the plague and Venezuelan equine encephalitis.

Full Disclosure. We have been contracted by BARDA, DTRA, and DOD over the last 5+ years to work on diagnostic assays for Anthrax, Plague, Dengue, Zika, Ebola, Chikungunya, AMD,and VEEV/EEEV/WEEV. Our office actually received a blank shipment we weren't expecting and sent back to sender from gov't BSL3/4 labs that contained live Bacillus anthracis, 2014-5 ish.

Mistakes certainly happen. 2003/4 when I was just starting work on TB vaccines we had 3 people where I worked incorrectly using a nebulizer in BSL3 for aerosol infection exp's in mice, and all became infected.

But implying SARS-2 is a lab breakout is categorically incorrect.

I just think it's funny the breach mentioned in the article was caused by a door propped open.

[KQ]

Imagine if somebody in, oh, 2014 wrote a screenplay about all this. It would have been laughed at, right?


"The makers of Lysol and state officials repeated warnings Thursday and Friday about the dangers of ingesting disinfectants or cleaning products as a way to treat or prevent illnesses caused by the coronavirus.
The remarks came after President Trump in a briefing on Thursday theorized about the possible medical benefits of sunlight, ultraviolet light and household disinfectants against the coronavirus.
Reckitt Benckiser, the British company that makes Lysol and Dettol, warned customers on Friday against using disinfectants as treatments, saying that “due to recent speculation and social media activity,” it had been asked about the “internal administration” of disinfectants.
“As a global leader in health and hygiene products, we must be clear that under no circumstance should our disinfectant products be administered into the human body (through injection, ingestion or any other route),” it said in a statement, advising people to use the products in line with guidelines."

When Women Used Lysol as Birth Control

[Buster Highmen]

^ the santa clara study was the low end, on mobile so cant find it atm. will look later. either way - just curious if these studies are generally considered BS or not, they seem v different than what I've been hearing prior to recently



ya this was kinda what I was wondering. how much stock are people putting in these tests

IF the death rate is 5x conventional flu, it seems like a much different thing than the 5% fatality rate that we've been operating under the assumption of yeah?

I've been honking the test reliability issue since this thing started.

It gives way too much ability to misconstrue whatever is going on.

Best case, 5x the normal death rate of conventional flu is still enough to take serious measures, especially in light iof the indeterminacy.

[Core Shot]

You used to be an uplifting, glass half full kind of guy Benny. I fear this lockdown has destroyed that.

Daydrinking will do that. Your glass is always headed towards empty.