Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Fritz]

Fucking Bernie is butthurt from getting his ass kicked in the primaries so taking his ball and going home. Meanwhile my clients are wondering how the fuck they are going to get by and not fire all of their employees: https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattper.../#29452beb4b11

[Mr. Mike]

you are probably correct on that point. Lots of dumb asses for sure. SC actually has a fairly high number as well. All anecdotal of course. They are not that stupid though, nor do I think people in NYC were dumb either. I just think certain behaviors lend themselves to shit hitting the fan quicker like NYC or those dumbasses on spring break. I do think people are starting to see NYC on the news and take it seriously though. Whether its too late or not is another question.

I read it as gonna be bad in the South because you have generally higher rates of obesity and smoking. As I posted a few pages back, however, that's not really a geography thing. Rather it's a rural/educational thing, and the south is more rural and less educated in general, than much of the country. My prediction, outside of the urban areas, the rate of contagion in the south will be lower because of low population density and no one goes there to visit (flyover country), but the fatality rate will be higher because the population is generally less healthy and access to quality healthcare is lacking.

It's 60 degrees and sunny now in Nashville, so I'm going to take my skinny, overeducated ass out for a jog and think about it some more.

[Rideski]

Although it’s easy to imagine a science fiction plot where China did it on purpose, interesting to consider they just wiped out a gigantic swath of their customers. Not just dead, but supply chains etc. would be curious to hear from some of the several people here that have China based manufacturing employers. Is this ever going back to square one? Tangent, any chance Chinese people are so fed up they overthrow CCP? On the twitter feed I posted earlier, they were showing a busload of young and the narrative was they might be headed on a one way trip to slaveville. not sure about credibility though.

https://twitter.com/erkinsidick/stat...682477060?s=21

[XXX-er]

No plague is any good unless you got an antidote as well ?

[Adolf Allerbush]

Where do you get the "deathrate looks like it's in the 0.1% to 0.15% range?" Today, WHO says 9,137 total cases in SK with 126 deaths (so 1.3% death rate there). Germany has 31,554 total with 149 deaths (0.5% death rate there). And unlike the flu, anywhere between 30% to 90% of the US population will get this thing when it is all said and done (this is up for debate). So lets use 0.5% death rate. If only 30% of US gets it that is still 490,500 Americans dying from this. That is best case scenario.

I believe the answer is that many people who had COVID-19 in SK weren't tested. Here's this if you haven't seen it: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Also, fuck if I know man...just trying to wade through the data and see if there is anything positive to glean from it. Hard to be doom and gloom all the time.

[Rideski]

No plague is any good unless you got an antidote as well ?

Well they did flatten out their curve with super minimal deaths if the rest of the world loses a few million. #sciencefiction

[Adolf Allerbush]

This must be so they can be home for Easter? https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news...er-coronavirus

[Deebased]

I believe the answer is that many people who had COVID-19 in SK weren't tested. Here's this if you haven't seen it: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Also, fuck if I know man...just trying to wade through the data and see if there is anything positive to glean from it. Hard to be doom and gloom all the time.

There's lots of positive to glean from it.

330M x 60% (expected infection rate) x 20% (symptomatic rate) x 15% (hospitalization rate) x 20% (ventilator rate). x 50% (fatality rate)

= slightly under 1% of the pop or as the UK (based on the Imperial College Report) said 0.5 to 1%. Cross-reference that across age and health and unless you have coronary heart disease, diabetes or kidney issues and are over 60 your chance of dying is slightly higher than dying from falling on steps.

[The AD]

Attachment 322219

This is the ranting of a dangerously unhinged individual.

Of course he has said and done so many things where I've said "That's it. No one can possibly support him now!" and I've been wrong every time so far.

[mcski]

He always reverts back to his main occupation as a 7th grade troll

[Bunion 2020]

Had an odd conversation today with a buddy.

He is 65, healthy for the south but not so much Bozeman. Anyway, he was sick last week, headache, low grade fever/chills (99/100) range, cough, felt shitty. Went to his Doctor and they said "no test, fever isn't high enough", "you have the flu most likely."

Most Likely?

[mcski]

There's lots of positive to glean from it.

330M x 60% (expected infection rate) x 20% (symptomatic rate) x 15% (hospitalization rate) x 20% (ventilator rate). x 50% (fatality rate)

= slightly under 1% of the pop or as the UK (based on the Imperial College Report) said 0.5 to 1%. Cross-reference that across age and health and unless you have coronary heart disease, diabetes or kidney issues and are over 60 your chance of dying is slightly higher than dying from falling on steps.

Or conversely, infuriating because that math is still 10x the flu deaths at minimum. I don’t thing there is another national leader that has fucked up their response anywhere near this badly.

[Deebased]

Or conversely, infuriating because that math is still 10x the flu deaths at minimum. I don’t thing there is another national leader that has fucked up their response anywhere near this badly.

How bad do you think Flu deaths were before we evolved to the herd immunity stage?

[riser4]

Had an odd conversation today with a buddy.

He is 65, healthy for the south but not so much Bozeman. Anyway, he was sick last week, headache, low grade fever/chills (99/100) range, cough, felt shitty. Went to his Doctor and they said "no test, fever isn't high enough", "you have the flu most likely."

Most Likely?

Pretty much what I had. Except I didn't get a headache., they wouldn't test me, and they wouldn't let me visit their office. Nobody else in my house has had it.

[iceman]

There's lots of positive to glean from it.

330M x 60% (expected infection rate) x 20% (symptomatic rate) x 15% (hospitalization rate) x 20% (ventilator rate). x 50% (fatality rate)

= slightly under 1% of the pop.

That math come out at .5% on the nose for the record. 1.65M dead if it's right.

Not sure I buy the rest of your math, considering.

[PB]

Or conversely, infuriating because that math is still 10x the flu deaths at minimum. I don’t thing there is another national leader that has fucked up their response anywhere near this badly.

And yet ...... Mexico, Brazil and India may be sneaking up on the inside.

[Rideski]

Or conversely, infuriating because that math is still 10x the flu deaths at minimum. I don’t thing there is another national leader that has fucked up their response anywhere near this badly.

Tragically the writing is on the wall for a bunch of third world countries.
I posted a couple hundred pages ago about the million refugees outside Turkey. Then there’s Africa, South America, etc. not as much travel there so they will lag behind Europe and US with less influx. But when it hits it will be calamity.

[Boissal]

Tragically the writing is on the wall for a bunch of third world countries.
I posted a couple hundred pages ago about the million refugees outside Turkey. Then there’s Africa, South America, etc. not as much travel there so they will lag behind Europe and US with less influx. But when it hits it will be calamity.

The Syrian refugees are going to get decimated. As if they weren't already drowning in a bottomless pool of shit...

India will be interesting. They're being very pro-active and aggressive. I work with a lot of people there who are considered part of essential industries and they got shut down just like everyone else despite their hope that they could continue to operate. The only projects that can continue with a very restricted staff are "essential research projects of global significance". This is in the biopharma field so you can imagine what the focus is.
Of note, most have expressed serious worries about the US trajectory and feel better about how their country is handling it. It's not misplaced nationalism either, all of these guys spent 10+ years getting educated in the US, they know how things work around here, and they all are happy not to be here with us.

[alias_rice]

There's lots of positive to glean from it.

330M x 60% (expected infection rate) x 20% (symptomatic rate) x 15% (hospitalization rate) x 20% (ventilator rate). x 50% (fatality rate)

= slightly under 1% of the pop or as the UK (based on the Imperial College Report) said 0.5 to 1%. Cross-reference that across age and health and unless you have coronary heart disease, diabetes or kidney issues and are over 60 your chance of dying is slightly higher than dying from falling on steps.

Where are you getting 20% symptomatic rate?

[grinch]

This is was cool little animation on LinkedIn, couldn’t figure out how to embed here, just a screen shot. The one match moves out of the way and it stopped the line of ignition.


Attachment 322234

I was going to post that last week but then i thought , its too simple, everyone understands how it works. Boy was i wrong

Sent from my SM-G950W using TGR Forums mobile app

[LeeLau]

The Syrian refugees are going to get decimated. As if they weren't already drowning in a bottomless pool of shit...

India will be interesting. They're being very pro-active and aggressive. I work with a lot of people there who are considered part of essential industries and they got shut down just like everyone else despite their hope that they could continue to operate. The only projects that can continue with a very restricted staff are "essential research projects of global significance". This is in the biopharma field so you can imagine what the focus is.
Of note, most have expressed serious worries about the US trajectory and feel better about how their country is handling it. It's not misplaced nationalism either, all of these guys spent 10+ years getting educated in the US, they know how things work around here, and they all are happy not to be here with us.

The Norwegians, Swiss, Canadians I know are all really concerned about the US. Not flinging poo but just stepping back and looking at it clinically (well as clinically as one can given the circumstances), you Americans are going to be a real-time laboratory experiment for a new way to deal with this particular pandemic by dramatically departing from the path taken by the three countries who've been (so far) successful in dealing with COVID 19.

It's a hell of a roll of the dice.

[iceman]

Where are you getting 20% symptomatic rate?

That and the 60% infected rate are made-up numbers. They might end up being true, or not.

[Rideski]

The Norwegians, Swiss, Canadians I know are all really concerned about the US. Not flinging poo but just stepping back and looking at it clinically (well as clinically as one can given the circumstances), you Americans are going to be a real-time laboratory experiment for a new way to deal with this particular pandemic by dramatically departing from the path taken by the three countries who've been (so far) successful in dealing with COVID 19.

It's a hell of a roll of the dice.

We’ve been trying to take his dice away, because he clearly lost all his marbles.

[mcski]

Tragically the writing is on the wall for a bunch of third world countries.
I posted a couple hundred pages ago about the million refugees outside Turkey. Then there’s Africa, South America, etc. not as much travel there so they will lag behind Europe and US with less influx. But when it hits it will be calamity.

Absolutely, but we have all the kids sitting in cages not to mention >1% of our population locked up in close quarters, many of them on bullshit drug and other charges that they haven’t even been convicted of but can’t get out of jail only because they can’t afford it. Inside tip: short your prison industrial complex stock

[huckbucket]

Daily dose of sunshine ...