Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Dantheman]

So that's his plan. Blame China and the media. Might work.

It's a bold strategy. US deaths are doubling every 3 days, which puts the body count at >50,000 by Easter.

[bennymac]

Attachment 322219

There it is. Blame the media for needing to keep the country on lockdown (if Trump is so powerful can't he just go against what the evil media is suggesting?). There will be blame directed at the Dems. Regardless of the damage this does to society (illness/deaths/bankruptcies etc) Trump will be blameless in the eyes of his devoted cultists. It was all a hoax, flu kills more, this was just done to damage re-election, China is to blame etc.

[MultiVerse]

I thought advil was not recommended

I personally wouldn't take any NSAIDs but the evidence is inconclusive and physicians opinions are split.

[huckbucket]

If your kids are in school, then you might as well learn something too. From 10 days ago.

[Ottime]

you are probably correct on that point. Lots of dumb asses for sure. SC actually has a fairly high number as well. All anecdotal of course. They are not that stupid though, nor do I think people in NYC were dumb either. I just think certain behaviors lend themselves to shit hitting the fan quicker like NYC or those dumbasses on spring break. I do think people are starting to see NYC on the news and take it seriously though. Whether its too late or not is another question.

Or that see it on the news and apply their usually prejudice of Cities and Yankees and then get on the bus to go to the mega church anyway. Like they did last Sunday and will do the next.

[Ottime]

So I guess what I'm asking, is it a death sentence to be vented at this point in America. I feel like for some reason in Italy if you hit the vent you were done

As some point I read 50% recovery. But not sure where or when I read that.

[bennymac]

[Benny Profane]

It's a bold strategy. US deaths are doubling every 3 days, which puts the body count at >50,000 by Easter.

Still close to the annual toll of the flu.

[The Tortoise]

But people aren't going to magically stop dying after Easter so the flu numbers are completely irrelevant. (Again)

[GeezerSteve]

Absent an unforeseen miracle drug, sure seems U.S. is heading to hundreds of thousands of Covid-19 deaths. Or maybe it tapers to a trickle in late spring/early summer, comes roaring back in fall and kills >1,000,000. Cf., 1918.

[Dantheman]

But people aren't going to magically stop dying after Easter so the flu numbers are completely irrelevant. (Again)

Yeah, the actual death toll likely will be far, far higher than 50,000. Even if deaths magically stopped on Easter you're talking about as many deaths in one month as the flu kills all year.

[ncskier]

Or that see it on the news and apply their usually prejudice of Cities and Yankees and then get on the bus to go to the mega church anyway. Like they did last Sunday and will do the next.

Well anyone doing that is in the dumbass category as well.


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[XXX-er]

Well anyone doing that is in the dumbass category as well.


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people going to church, believeing the world is 6000 yrs old, god will taake care of it ... part of the natural selction process ?

[ncskier]

people going to church, believeing the world is 6000 yrs old, god will taake care of it ... part of the natural selction process ?

Just spray silver in your mouth is what I was told. Cures VS also.


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[altasnob]

It may have been said already but one of my MD buddies was saying the only data we should be looking at is from SK and Germany because those are the only two places with widespread testing and that are unlikely to be manipulating the numbers in their favor, such as China. He pointed out that the deathrate looks like it's in the 0.1% to 0.15% range, similar to flu, but the obvious difference with COVID-19 is that it's easily transmissible. I guess that's sort of old news, but it was somewhat reassuring that its not as dire as some of the media outlets are painting it...not sure if that's just them being cautious, trying to get ratings, inability to focus their reporting, or some combination of those and other factors.

Where do you get the "deathrate looks like it's in the 0.1% to 0.15% range?" Today, WHO says 9,137 total cases in SK with 126 deaths (so 1.3% death rate there). Germany has 31,554 total with 149 deaths (0.5% death rate there). And unlike the flu, anywhere between 30% to 90% of the US population will get this thing when it is all said and done (this is up for debate). So lets use 0.5% death rate. If only 30% of US gets it that is still 490,500 Americans dying from this. That is best case scenario.

[gretch6364]

Where do you get the "deathrate looks like it's in the 0.1% to 0.15% range?" Today, WHO says 9,137 total cases in SK with 126 deaths (so 1.3% death rate there). Germany has 31,554 total with 149 deaths (0.5% death rate there). And unlike the flu, anywhere between 30% to 90% of the US population will get this thing when it is all said and done (this is up for debate). So lets use 0.5% death rate. If only 30% of US gets it that is still 490,500 Americans dying from this. That is best case scenario.

Where do you get "30% to 90% of the US population will get this thing"?

He may have pulled some assumptions of individuals that have contracted it and not been tested/included in the WHO count? Just a guess though.

[LeeLau]

It's a bold strategy. US deaths are doubling every 3 days, which puts the body count at >50,000 by Easter.

If I got this right US will go into light mitigation for approx 2 weeks meaning some regions will be in suppression/essential services only and some regions will be in light mitigation ie non-mandatory social distancing. So for the next 2 weeks or so the rate per day increase will stay at about 32% all things being equal

Then after Easter the social distancing leg of mitigation is dropped. Economy goes back to working as per normal.

What is the strategy to increase the other legs of mitigation? Ie (i) to keep good health care habits; and (ii) increase testing + contact-tracing post Easter?

Is there also a strategy to insulate the more subsceptible parts of society from COVID post-Easter?

This potentially that the world gets data from a large country with a large population which has decided to abandon the social distancing leg of mitigation. Hopefully it works.

[mcski]

Fatality risk is just one metric. Every year somewhere between 5% to 20% of the U.S. population gets the flu. The percentages aren't higher because some people are vaccinated and there's also some herd immunity unless it's a novel strain. Setting aside uncertain fatality rates, other factors come into play like population susceptibility. Unfortunately, nearly everyone is susceptible to COVID-19.

Thx for this. Covid is clearly much much worse than the flu, but the flu is not a happy day in the park for at least 50k. Many years many more dead than. That number getting brushed off annoys me.

If we didn’t have vaccines and some herd immunity Like you said, the flu would kill many more. I’ve seen more than enough otherwise healthy people end up w pneumonia and sepsis because of the flu than I would like. It’s not a pleasant way to go. I can’t imagine a ward filled w covid patients on vents.

I guess my point is next time someone tells you any vaccine is bullshit, just kick them in the nuts or their girly nuts.

[liv2ski]

Just hoping Dumps great plan doesn't kill a third of the country and get me locked out from visiting my sister in Kelowna for her birthday in July

[2FUNKY]

[iceman]

What is the strategy to increase the other legs of mitigation?

The strategy is to deny, blame, and get re-elected and then maybe do something. Even implementing any major plan is an admission that there is a problem, and the goal is to pretend that there is no problem. No problem but the left and the media that is.

[Toadman]

https://twitter.com/pattonoswalt/sta...212830504.html

[Rideski]

This is was cool little animation on LinkedIn, couldn’t figure out how to embed here, just a screen shot. The one match moves out of the way and it stopped the line of ignition.

[altasnob]

Where do you get "30% to 90% of the US population will get this thing"?

I am basing the statement that 30% to 90% of the US (and world) will get this virus on the Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand, a study conducted by the Imperial College of London, which is the main study that is dictating policy in the US and UK at the moment. No one know how many in the US (or World) will get this, but you do understand that if a country does nothing, it is extremely likely that at least more than half of the population will contract the virus. You only reduce that number by engaging in extensive mitigation and suppression techniques as outlined in that study. Germany's Chancellor says up to 70% of Germany will contract the virus.

[Danno]

The strategy is to deny, blame, and get re-elected and then maybe do something.

By "do something", I assume you mean continue to tear it all down while lining his pockets, right? Winning re-election would not get him to "do something", it would simply be validation of whatever he had done to date.