Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[4matic]

Stocks rarely fall significantly when earnings are accelerating regardless of valuation. Bank earnings were rolling over a year before the financial crisis.

Too early to predict earnings with tax changes but comparisons will be difficult next year. Yields over 3% in USD treasury will be compelling for geezers who have big profit in stocks.

That sentiment bell curve is backward looking. No way to predict. Elliott wave tries to predict but it’s too esoteric for me.

Markets might challenge the new fed chair as he tries to unwind QE and has little experience as a central banker.

I’m still bearish dollar which is good for US equity and more so for emerging markets. I’d be interested in buying a leg. down in emerging if China has an equity stumble.

I’ll be watching currency and interest rates as the new year rolls in. Important moves in rates and currency can happen in thin trade next week.

[4matic]

The Bitcoin having a nice bounce. It could get a boost with short covering in the futures when they open back up. Futures closed at 13900 and could be lock limit higher when they reopen. It would be first limit up where it stands right now.

[Bunion 2020]

What are crypto currencies worth? ONLY what the next guy will pay you for them. And if that’s $0, then that is what they’re worth.

Oh yeah but they are unsinkable like the titanic.

My take as well. I don't invest in things I don't understand and I do not understand the Crypto market.

[mall walker]

^ well that’s very true but in fairness the next guy has been paying an awful lot lately

[summit]

The thing is that even if in bubbles these other classes of asset actually have some underlying value and when they crash they will bounce back to that true value eventually. Stocks are worth some multiple of the profits the company can generate, Houses are worth what they can generate in rent, Gold is worth the jewelry and industrial uses can generate.

What are crypto currencies worth? ONLY what the next guy will pay you for them. And if that’s $0, then that is what they’re worth.

Oh yeah but they are unsinkable like the titanic.

Kinnikinnick lays it out PERFECTLY.

There is a difference between price and value.

Currency is supposed to have value as a store of wealth and a medium of exchange. Too much inflation and they suck as stores of wealth. Too much deflation and they suck as mediums of exchange. Too much volatility and they suck at both. Crypto is a volatile/deflating at an extreme much worse than Zimbabwe's inflation. It has a price supported by speculation. Its utility for exchange is highest in oppressive monetarily unstable countries (Venezuela) or for illegal activities (money laundering). None of that bodes well for long term value/stability even without considering infinite substitution undermining perceived scarcity.

[summit]

That sentiment bell curve is backward looking. No way to predict. Elliott wave tries to predict but it’s too esoteric for me.

Agreed here... the entrance of institutions into the market and futures availability does suggest we are somewhere in the majority upswing... so the top is coming. But is it at 10% above current values? 100%? Unknown....

In the chart I put up, we are somewhere in the public/institutional range... so does another huge upswing await?

Per Minsky's 5 stage bubble theory,
https://www.investopedia.com/article...f-a-bubble.asp

We are somewhere between euphoria and profit taking...

The clue for me to not engage is that I can say "fuck I wish I bought BTC back at price X... but I'm super uncomfortable buying right now because at some point it goes to the floor." My strategy is always long term investment. I should probably short BTC... if there was an efficient vehicle for that, I'd do it.

[splat]

Here's a coin anchored in euphoria....

https://www.camusomedia.com/client-s...abis-industry/

[Bobby Stainless]

Id say we are in the phase of "media attention".

[4matic]

Experienced hall of fame trader been banging in BTC for a long time. Lots of wisdom here.

@PeterLBrandt

[liv2ski]

Experienced hall of fame trader been banging in BTC for a long time. Lots of wisdom here.

@PeterLBrandt

Sure, maybe with money you don't care about losing or just go to the casino and put it all on Red????

[Bunion 2020]

Sure, maybe with money you don't care about losing or just go to the casino and put it all on Red????

Pretty much. This isn't investing as much as rolling the bones.

[jono]

Id say we are in the phase of "media attention".

Curious what makes you think so. Based on the shape of the curve and the fact that media attention should always be expected to continue through Despair (because the chart slope is interesting enough to report on) I'm thinking "media attention" marks the beginning of the media taking notice. If so, what's to argue we aren't crossing the Bull Trap?

[Bobby Stainless]

That would be the other choice. Which would suck.

I want it to be the "Media Attention" phase and it kind of fits in there.

[jono]

That would be the other choice. Which would suck.

I want it to be the "Media Attention" phase and it kind of fits in there.

So you're a buyer or just feeling hopeful?

If we're on the way to a new paradigm, it does seem reasonable to recognize that scarcity of BTC means it hasn't come close to the value it would need to achieve a market cap necessary to provide adequate value to replace "money supply" for all the black money in the world plus some large fraction of those wishing to step around problems with particular fiats (China, Venezuela and ?). Either simply increasing the value of a coin that can be split into ever smaller pieces solves that, or Summit already provided the alternative and all non-physical currency will eventually revert to its inherent value.

Swissiphic needs to create a crypto engine to crank out more currencies according to some predefined formula so that we can have faith that replacements for FKNACoin will only appear at known intervals. This would be superior to BTC.

[summit]

Curious what makes you think so. Based on the shape of the curve and the fact that media attention should always be expected to continue through Despair (because the chart slope is interesting enough to report on) I'm thinking "media attention" marks the beginning of the media taking notice. If so, what's to argue we aren't crossing the Bull Trap?

Your post is precisely what I was thinking

[Bobby Stainless]

So you're a buyer or just feeling hopeful?

I've got 6k in it. Hopeful I guess.

Would suck to lose 6k but that's gambling.

[JimmyCarter]

Your post is precisely what I was thinking

This plus dro's chart has me expecting another massive selloff soon. Thinking of taking my winnings and heading over to the steakhouse in this here casino instead.

[Bobby Stainless]

Most of mine is on a Nano S and fairly inaccessible. Id miss any sell off and only be able to buy the dip.

[JimmyCarter]

Dont want to pay ST cap gains but cant see myself holding out long enough to get them LT.

[summit]

I am still interested in making a gamble on a short position but am still not sure of a good way to do it

[jono]

Sell to Beerdrinker?

[twodogs]

I've got 6k in it. Hopeful I guess.

Would suck to lose 6k but that's gambling.

So glad I'm not a rich douche.

What a lifestyle. [emoji40]

[Bunion 2020]

So glad I'm not a rich douche.

What a lifestyle. [emoji40]

Yeah because being a poor douche is so much more Core. Brah.

[Skidog]

Yeah because being a poor douche is so much more Core. Brah.

Maybe when you're poor you actually have something to be douchey about? Just noodling here

Sent from my XT1650 using TGR Forums mobile app

[Bobby Stainless]

So glad I'm not a rich douche.

What a lifestyle. [emoji40]

Funny you think 6k is a lot of money.