Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[huckbucket]

Attachment 219501

Instant promotion to Head of Marketing ... congrats!

[365wp]

Trade 'em one for one for GNAR points with visual evidence signed with your private key

[swissiphic]

Fuck yeah to FKNA Coin!

[reckless toboggan]

FKNA
PoW = vertical feet logged
Mining = skiing
10k ft = one coin

That's just silly. People on this site don't actually ski...they just talk about it. Duh.

[365wp]

Use it to reward those epic TR posters
Uphill vert gets you 2x the coinage
Ponder the fun(gibility) and (f)utility

[Bobby Stainless]

Bout to cross 15k. Wild ride today.

[reckless toboggan]

Use it to reward those epic TR posters
Uphill vert gets you 2x the coinage
Ponder the fun(gibility) and (f)utility

I'd buy the short on that. The dentists here wouldn't do it, and the posts that do are fake news.

Obvs.

[swissiphic]

Bout to cross 15k. Wild ride today.

continue to be long bitcoin but leery of other alts right now in short short term...nice rebound in bitshares though.

[Bobby Stainless]

Im not cashing any of this stuff in for a year at least. Just buying the dips.

[365wp]

Hodl or hodl not, there is no sodl

[Dexter Rutecki]

So, if BTC recovers and hits $20k, are the guys who spent today gloating going to come back in here and admit their error? (Don't worry, it's a rhetorical question).

Only when it doesn't drop to near zero when the market corrects. There is simply no reason aside from tulips for this to have the value it currently does. Smart money is still short.

[4matic]

Bout to cross 15k. Wild ride today.

CME futures closed at 5pm eastern.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Hodl!!

[wakefield]

Well, that was exciting...I just didn't touch anything.

Anyone ever try running a trading bot? https://github.com/carlos8f/zenbot

I'm wondering how big a project it'd be to get that thing up and running just to play around with.

[Swine]

I own a little NEO & BTG now, alongside some POWR & ZRX. Cut most of BTG around 300, then bought again & cut again. Not really any clean way to own the last few days, so I'm about half cash waiting for momentum to heal & press again. Just playing with a bit of my brother's btc funds. This is what I'm thinking about BTG... as long as you buy wisely on the next setup, this week's carnage should be washed away. Trying to assume little & just respect how it has behaved in the past - major breaks in momentum need time to allow sentiment to recover.

Yeah, I didn't do anything knee jerk today. I don't have enough in to be too terribly concerned, but I should have trusted the charts a couple days ago and cut out with some. I'm long ADA, XLM, and IOTA. Holding BTG until it rebounds, I don't love BTC or any of it's forks though in comparison to the utility of ETH or speed of some others. Got a couple ICO's that a group of us are throwing some dollars at soon too. Most alts are pure ponzi-scheme spec at this point. Doesn't mean someone can't make money but I'm not willing to ride the dopamine wave that hard. I believe in the tech, but only up to a point, and something has to have good folks behind it.

You've been in this space a lot longer than I have. Any thoughts on this?

[summit]

SCARCITY

Cryptocurrency is valuable because of scarcity – cryptocurrency units (coins) will be harder to get as mining depletes the unmined coin supply… just like gold mines drying up… so the value should get higher forever vs eternally diluted like printable paper money (fiat currency)! After all, this explains why gold’s utilitarian value is but a fraction of its fiat currency value.

Crypto vs Fiat vs Gold?

Isn’t fiat currency valuation determined by economic value of a national system which also supply limits the currency based on monetary policy? Yep

Isn’t gold supply limited by finite concentrations of economically viable recoverable deposits vs current value? Yea

Can’t any mildly competent computer programmer create an infinite number of cryptocurrencies with very little effort? Uh… yes indeedy.

What is crypto?

Is bitcoin a digital commodity designed as a financial instrument? Cryptocurrency units are a commodity of secured solutions to an arbitrary mathematical problem set (say the bitcoin problemset) that utilize secured transactions of the solutions so they can serve as financial instruments. There are limited solutions (coins) to a problem set (cryptocurrency), but infinite potential problem sets. Individual solution sets are supply limited, but given that is the only independent variable for a given cryptocurrency’s value, speculative demand is the true value driver. This valuation equation explains crypto valuation swings in excess of any stable financial instrument (or even penny stock).

Is the Tulip Comparison Fair? NO…

Many compare crypto value spikes to a the bubble known as the Dutch Tulip panic. Tulips weren’t secured by blockchains, but tulip markets were a futures driven commodity market. Actual tulips had more utilitarian value than actual bitcoin, but not by much. Tulips were a commodity… but were limited by seed supply and arable land, but that’s a soft limit which is only stable at a given value. Supply limits were redefined as value skyrocketed. The supply limit was continuously relaxed due to ever-rising value. Tulip futures were sold and used to fund more Tulip cultivation and more future sales, until the reality check of virtually unlimited realized supply disconnected from utilitarian value caused the futures market to collapse down to the utilitarian value of a mere minor decorative luxury available in excess, near zero relative to the bubble peak.

Unless…

Cryptocurrency is merely a secure digital commodity with features to enable it to function as a financial instrument (as were tulip futures). The Tulip bubble equivalent in cryptocurrency is that wild value speculations will drive creation and utilization of more and more efficient and user friendly alternative problem sets to be solved (cryptocurrencies to be mined). As ever more tulips can be grown, ever more cryptocurrencies can be created. Realization of infinite alternatives diluting value will burst the illusions than there is value stability in a given cryptocurrency’s coin supply limit. This will inevitably lead to a total collapse (bubble burst) down to the utilitarian value of a solved arbitrary equations… my guess is that value is less than the average solution cost across all problem sets (eg less than all the kilowatt hours and equipment opportunity cost across all cryptocurrencies).

So is it a bubble?

This reminds me of 2007 and some folks were screaming about the mortgage market but nobody would listen... there were tons of people winning in 2007. There are tons of people winning now. Whether you win depends on when you get in... and out. This is a the theoretical model of the stages of a bubble:

Where do you think we are?


Well, here are a couple of bubbles superimposed:


Now just the tulips and BTC:

[Flyoverland Captive]

SCARCITY

Cryptocurrency is valuable because of scarcity ...

Scarcity is just a small piece of the valuation pie.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost....n-crashed/amp/

[Dexter Rutecki]

UBS's chief global economist on bitcoin:

"I dislike bubbles because bubbles sucker in large numbers of people and take their money and give it to a small number of people. And that's very destructive in the long term. And I think this is one of the problems that we've got."

I know the dentist-trader crowd disagrees, I just can't figure out why.

[Flyoverland Captive]

Good articles about crypto, Bitcoin, blockchain, etc. in the latest SciAm. Worth a read.

[JimmyCarter]

UBS's chief global economist on bitcoin:

"I dislike bubbles because bubbles sucker in large numbers of people and take their money and give it to a small number of people. And that's very destructive in the long term. And I think this is one of the problems that we've got."

I know the dentist-trader crowd disagrees, I just can't figure out why.

I dont think people disagree with it, just that its still early.

"I think this [crypto] is going to be the biggest bubble of our lifetimes by a longshot," former Fortress hedge fund manager Michael Novogratz said at the CoinDesk Consensus: Invest conference in New York on Nov. 28.

"Bitcoin could be at $40,000 at the end of 2018. It easily could," he said on CNBC's "Fast Money" last month. "There's a big wave of money coming, not just here but all around the world."

[Bobby Stainless]

Just wondering who here thinks the stock market isn't on a bubble?

It's all the same. Just varying degrees of volatility. Kind of like different blind limits at poker tables.

"I don't care if you're Warren Buffet or Jimmy Buffet"

[Bunion 2020]

^^^ the Stock Market is certainly in Bubble territory.

2 things.

Every time in the past the bubble has popped, if you held on, eventually it recovered and went higher as a whole. Is there going to be a time when that doesn't happen?

With the current leadership, who can accurately say when the Bubble will pop?

[Bromontana]

^^^ the Stock Market is certainly in Bubble territory.

2 things.

Every time in the past the bubble has popped, if you held on, eventually it recovered and went higher as a whole. Is there going to be a time when that doesn't happen?

With the current leadership, who can accurately say when the Bubble will pop?

Secular bull # bubble

In 2007, the stock market in general wasn't a bubble, just the creatively engineered mortgage bonds & securities heavily influenced by them like Bear Stearns & Countrywide. Microsoft went down to the teens in 09 before quickly resuming its march to the 50s, 60s and higher.

@swine - the disconnect that gives me pause is the implementation that speculation (referred to as adoption in white papers) is supposed to magically produce. Where are the orgs that will actually drive execution of these concepts? Because I don't believe speculators will hang around for a decade to see things through.

[Kinnikinnick]

The thing is that even if in bubbles these other classes of asset actually have some underlying value and when they crash they will bounce back to that true value eventually. Stocks are worth some multiple of the profits the company can generate, Houses are worth what they can generate in rent, Gold is worth the jewelry and industrial uses can generate.

What are crypto currencies worth? ONLY what the next guy will pay you for them. And if that’s $0, then that is what they’re worth.

Oh yeah but they are unsinkable like the titanic.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[swissiphic]

Speaking of charts....where are cryptos on this timeline if it's applicable? What's the potential viable demographic buy in out of the 7.5 billion people on the planet? How big can the bubble blow, if it is such? What are the unknown unknown potential black swan events on the horizon beyond the obvious like hacks, gov regs, limitations due to energy/computing power?

Out of my depth/wheelhouse and willing to learn. Thanks for your comments regarding bubbles, Summit.