Is the stock market going to tank?

**neufox47** · 01-25-2017, 05:27 PM

Fkna, mdr breaks 52 week high.

Odds the dj is below 20k on 11.1.20?

**Benny Profane** · 01-25-2017, 06:46 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

I believe it's irony in the "thanks Donald" comments. Not like the deplorables own jack. 40% of Trump supporters think stock prices were down under Obama.

Thanks Donald! Lol.

Yup. What a joke.

Thanks, Donald.

**Bromontana** · 01-25-2017, 07:07 PM

Originally Posted by Toadman

Buy rubles. What could go wrong?

I'm balls deep in the mexican peso right now. EWW

**4matic** · 01-25-2017, 07:13 PM

Fresh lows dollar index a few minutes ago. Back to September high.

**Benny Profane** · 01-25-2017, 07:20 PM

Originally Posted by Bromontana

I'm balls deep in the mexican peso right now. EWW

If I could drink the water down there, I'd be planning a long trip. But then again, I'm thinking that won't look too kindly on old gringos throwing their money around these days.

**Bromontana** · 01-25-2017, 07:23 PM

I work with Mexicans just about every day. No animosity towards us, but DJT on the other hand.. i promised a client he wouldn't win, the public wouldn't do it. Oops

Just booked a trip to the tip of baja next month, excited to go back.

Water there hasnt bothered me but was in Santa Fe, which may be nicer than Utah.

**406** · 01-26-2017, 10:40 AM

Seems odd to me that the rally continues given that we are told the market doesn't like uncertainty? Does seem like a good time to sell it all.

**Mazderati** · 01-30-2017, 10:24 AM

**Bromontana** · 01-30-2017, 10:51 AM

Originally Posted by Mazderati

Whipsaw in the Russell but it hasn't left its current range on the daily chart (nothing of consequence-yet)

Looking at some foreign stuff that's sold off like Malaysia. Good demographics generally, about 60% off prior cycle highs. Anyone have any related analysis? Planning to sit on Mexico for a bit as well.

EWM chart

**406** · 01-30-2017, 12:54 PM

Strongly considering selling everything in my personal brokerage account and locking in 70-80% gain (although should have done it on Friday...). Other than the 8% gain on LYG and 56% gain on BCS, tax would be long term capital gains.

**El Chupacabra** · 01-30-2017, 01:03 PM

Beginning of the end, or buying opportunity?

I have been shifting our investments into somewhat more conservative mutual funds, in an attempt to hedge our bets. They're still heavily US-weighted though.

**4matic** · 01-30-2017, 03:03 PM

Sold more EWA and out of EWC. Treasury acting very poorly. Rates look higher.

**4matic** · 01-30-2017, 03:49 PM

Originally Posted by Mazderati

Volatility is a record low so not really. Been dead sidewise for almost two months.

**Bromontana** · 01-30-2017, 05:38 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Volatility is a record low so not really. Been dead sidewise for almost two months.

A function of risk or a function of the short vix trade being more profitable than indexes?

**4matic** · 01-30-2017, 07:15 PM

Originally Posted by Bromontana

A function of risk or a function of the short vix trade being more profitable than indexes?

Combination of that is probably true. There will be a few days of win but sell premium has been the winning trade for a decade. It's why days like today have no follow through.

I have to say that liquidity is excellent. I'm selling the ask on relatively thin ETF's and getting filled easily.

**4matic** · 01-30-2017, 09:41 PM

Fascinating. The smartest guys in the room.

Bill Gates and Warren Buffett: Charlie Rose
http://bloom.bg/2kKSkQZ

**406** · 01-31-2017, 10:45 AM

Kai's final words at the end of market place yesterday pushed me off the fence and I just sold everything that was "green." Tough to let go of all those dividends from free money, but might need the cash next year and figure the next 4 years are going to be a big enough roller coaster (401k, housing, alt-right empire, etc..).
Attachment 198775

Likely hold on to some of the losers for awhile.

**Bromontana** · 01-31-2017, 12:08 PM

Friendly reminder

I came of age amid two fairly ugly market selloffs (dotcom & gfc), so it's not easy for me to accept at face value. But if you look at developed market bond valuations, there is no question where allocations will go going forward. Just a question of how bumpy the new bull market will be. 1987 redux could certainly happen, but even that would be a blip on the radar. Gl-

**Sluff** · 01-31-2017, 12:12 PM

Been building a position in BMY at these levels it's at now. 48-50 range. Historical support here. Health care out of favor too. Hoping some rotation out of recent high flyers find its way into some beaten down value plays.

**JimmyCarter** · 01-31-2017, 12:48 PM

Originally Posted by 406

Kai's final words at the end of market place yesterday pushed me off the fence and I just sold everything that was "green." Tough to let go of all those dividends from free money, but might need the cash next year and figure the next 4 years are going to be a big enough roller coaster (401k, housing, alt-right empire, etc..).

http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/s...80#post4760580

**4matic** · 01-31-2017, 01:05 PM

Island top on $SPX daily.

**grapedrink** · 01-31-2017, 01:14 PM

So, with all the time, energy and mumbo jumbo you guys talk, what is your 1yr/5yr/10yr annualized roi after fees?

If you're not beating the indices, then what in the fuck is the point?

If you're doing the same as the indices +/- an insigificant amount, then what in the fuck is the point?

And if you're beating the indices year after year by a not so insignificant margin, then why in the world aren't you investing other peoples money and so fucking rich you wouldn't dream of wasting a minute on an online ski forum sub thread about investing?

**4matic** · 01-31-2017, 01:45 PM

Deferred 01/31/2014 01/31/2017 +13.18% annualized that's all I've got for now. I've been selling a lot of stock in this account lately.
Taxable 04/01/2016 01/31/2017 +9% This is a trading account that yields $900 mo tax free and currently holds:

PCQ: 7600 shares
PCK: 4100 shares
OAK: 405 shares

During the previous 10 months I have owned: JPM, BRK.B, T, VZ, VOD (been selling these in the last 60 days)

I try to keep my beta under the SPY and lean towards yield vs growth. For example: The largest position in my deferred, by far, is PFF. It has a beta of .34.

What's the point? I enjoy daily market fluctuation and charting. Long term hobby and my career really. News and information. I love this stuff an have learned A LOT from my many mistakes.

I've managed money. No thanks. I don't like being responsible for other people. I get it. It's boring but I'm in control of my own destiny and know what to do. I've had to take a lot of above average risk to get it done. For example, going into this year I was 150% long in my taxable count. Now I'm 105% long in tax free investments.

**Art Shirk** · 01-31-2017, 01:52 PM

This has been awesome to watch evolve and the livestream should be hilarious.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetb...ill_begin_the/

TL/DR - Dude inherits 2.5M, blows all but 300K daytrading like an idiot. Lives with mom and rather than getting the hell out of her house and paying off some debts that would be fully covered by the 300K, he decides to lay the entire 300K on the line based on the assumption that AAPL tanks to 100 bucks a share or some such ridiculousness. He's livestreaming the whole thing at 3:30 EST.

**4matic** · 01-31-2017, 01:53 PM

I'm no CTA. I read charts the way I read them. It's not science. With regard to an Island reversal. Like any chart pattern it helps to define risk. There is a good chance we've seen the short term low. Anytime the index gets back in the gap (short term) is a chance to short with stop at new high.