MAKE TAHOE DEEP AGAIN ~ 2016/17 OFISHUL SNOW/FOOD/WHINE & STOKE THREAD

[MagnificentUnicorn]

+1. Marin where I live in gets 54 inches of average annual rainfall sustaining green, fern filled coniferous forest. Old growth red wood forests in deep canyons. Reservoirs used for our water here were officially 99.99% full before this storm hit. No drought here and hasn't been but water rates still went up.

Drought has become a politicized term used for a variety of reasons. I do believe the condition is more severe in parts of central and southern Cal that pipe from the mountains and sustain a lot of agriculture

The average rainfall for Marin county is much lower than 54". Where exactly do you live. Bolinas only get 20-25" a year.

[Driver]

The average rainfall for Marin county is much lower than 54". Where exactly do you live. Bolinas only get 20-25" a year.

Sorry, 52.65".

https://marinwater.org/300/Water-Watch

Edit: I should add that Bolinas is coastal and this data is from Lake Lagunitas. The 'big mountain' in between affects things significantly.

[snapt]

Not saying it always ran but it definitely ran more than it does now. In 2010 / 11 (the last year under JMA) I probably rode ABC more days than I have in the 5 years since then. It's also much more crowded now (does anyone deny that?) so it's a more egregious decision to leave it sitting there. You're comparing apples and oranges.

I can count the number of times on one hand that ABC ran in the years I skied there, granted 10/11 I spent the first half of the season in Japan, I didn't ride it once that year, though it legit might have gotten buried and not seen till spring, or was that lakeview? It was open a handful of times the next few seasons from my recollection, and yes the crowds got shitty, made worse by the fact that hoards of people with no clue how to traverse/hike were doing so.

Back to SB, I bumped into Jeremy Jones a ton there back in the day for the same reasons as Rhalves. Plenty of pros there, epecially early season when they had more terrain open than Squaw.

[hercule33]

Surprisingly it got better as the day wore on. From 2 - 4 it snowed 2-3 inches, the wnd blew, the buff was Good!! Ended up with a 6 hour day and wanted more. Unexpected fun for sure.

To the whiners to the west.

The Chutes never opened and no one complained. We just accepted the fact that with the wet snow this morning, 35- 60 MPH gusts that patrol knows what thier doing and made the right decison.

From the whiners from the west, I hope Lakeview at Alpine finally opened today. Those runs are more steep than the chutes right?

[LightRanger]

Last time I saw Jones on the hill, he snaked my line on High Yellow. It was an honor.

[BFD]

Well I did say semi arid desert and desert. The entirety of the Bay area with the exception of a few places right on the coast are classed a semi arid desert. The Central Valley is a semi arid desert. Nearly every thing south of Sacramento with the exception of a few small micro climes is semi arid desert or desert. CA is dry. WA is too, the precip here is more like 9-10".

I am going to disagree on the bay area. Csb Mediterranean not semi arid.

[old goat]

Sorry, 52.65".

https://marinwater.org/300/Water-Watch

Edit: I should add that Bolinas is coastal and this data is from Lake Lagunitas. The 'big mountain' in between affects things significantly.

San Rafael gets 35 inches. Mill Valley 38, Novato 27.
The problem with the wet coastal communities is that many of them rely entirely on local rainfall and small reservoirs. While 34 or 62 inches of rain a year sounds like a lot, it all falls in the winter, most of it can't be stored, and it's not as much as the 60-80 inches of water a year that falls in most of the Sierra Nevada, much of it hopefully in the form of snow. In drought years it's those wet coastal towns that are usually hurting the worst. Meanwhile the dry south and central valley have access to snow-fed major water systems as well as a groundwater to get them by when the Sierra doesn't deliver. (Here in Truckee--despite having Donner Lake and abundant precipitation we use only groundwater.)
If you happen to be in Tucson during the monsoon about 5 in the afternoon and look at the normally dry Rillito River you might not understand that Tucson is in a desert. It's not just how much it precipitates but the pattern of precipitation throughout the year and what infrastructure there is to manage the water.
The aridity of the west is of course an old issue and has always been controversial--see Stegner's "Beyond the 100th Meridian" about John Wesley Powell who made a career of trying to counteract the propaganda of development interests that the west is a garden of Eden. The west is dry. A lot of western homesteaders went quickly bust or even starved to death ignoring that fact.

[bodywhomper]

You kids want get off topic about drought, anybody noticed those fallowed fields in the San Joaquin? Or better almost on topic, with prop 64 passage, where will the water come from for all the grows, large scale or small indoor operations?

[reid]

Yes, I know what drought means but the most populous state being largely desert leads to water shortages being the norm. Even in normal or above normal years water shortages are the norm.

I don't disagree, but I thought we were talking about drought, which has a real meaning, and a generally-accepted definition. When you look at a drought map they're talking about shortages of rainfall, not "water shortages" which of course can be about the snowpack going away early and leaving us without water, or overusage, or misdirection, or whatever.

Some would consider the CA "drought" from 900-1200 to have been an example of "climate change" and not just a "drought" or "mega-drought".

In our current world, "drought" in California is often a regulatory thing....

No, the "regulatory thing" would be a water shortage.

Drought has become a politicized term used for a variety of reasons. I do believe the condition is more severe in parts of central and southern Cal that pipe from the mountains and sustain a lot of agriculture

You kids want get off topic about drought, anybody noticed those fallowed fields in the San Joaquin? Or better almost on topic, with prop 64 passage, where will the water come from for all the grows, large scale or small indoor operations?

These are both about water shortages, not drought.

[bodywhomper]

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures...ghtPublic2.pdf

[old goat]

I don't disagree, but I thought we were talking about drought, which has a real meaning, and a generally-accepted definition. When you look at a drought map they're talking about shortages of rainfall, not "water shortages" which of course can be about the snowpack going away early and leaving us without water, or overusage, or misdirection, or whatever.



No, the "regulatory thing" would be a water shortage.





These are both about water shortages, not drought.

drought

noun
noun: drought; plural noun: droughts
a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall; a shortage of water resulting from this.

[parkmeister]

one minute of meadowskipping at boreal on thursday, 5 january 2017
tunes: suffocation by crystal castles

[Ottime]

^^^Is that stoke?

We were discussing the definition of "drought."

[Eastern Sierra Skier]

Add Rose to the list of area's that have announced they will not be opening tomorrow. I was at Rose today also as the boy does the Saturday program. After Fridays blower pow runs in the chutes, today was a bit of a soggy letdown. It snowed a couple of inches quickly this morning, but turned to the snain before noon. If you could find some some snow it was kinda fun, but with my rain covered goggles and 40 something eyes I couldn't see shit. Oh well, one the bright side I skied with my kid Monday-Saturday last week, minus the Wednesday closure of MR HWY. In anything but the steepest terrain or deepest pow he's right behind me, and I hardly have to wait at all. He was stoked late this afternoon when his school sent out the word that school was cancelled on Monday. Guess what? He wants to go skiing. Hope the snow levels drop.

So no skiing tomorow, and that ok with me as I need the rest. Might go down and check out the rising flood waters. Wingfield park is predicted to be 6 ft under wateer by late Sunday.

[neufox47]

^^^Is that stoke?

We were discussing the definition of "drought."

I lol'd.

I thought the ecrc was unique in its ability to turn into a bitch fest.

Its a weird feeling to be hoping for a letup in the snow before going to resorts.

[SchralphMacchio]

Relevant to BC skiing discussions, not drought ...

Many of you are my friends, really good friends, and I really enjoy skiing with you and your kids - so if I'm asking about terrain choices it's because I'd like to openly discuss experiences in the hope that we can all keep skiing with each other for years to come. I'm not looking to piss on anyone for the sake of ego or pissing contests, just wanted to share something worth thinking about when it comes to acceptable consequences vs. certainty, for all of our personal terrain decisions.

This SAC ob didn't seem to get much airplay earlier this week, at least not as much as a 15' crown from Kirkwood did.

There was a natural slide on Jakes, on the raincrust this week, 5' crown, 8600' elevation, so well well below the ridgeline or treeline. NE face, so in an area where the DPS problem is believed to exist. 35 degree slope angle.
http://www.sierraavalanchecenter.org...hes-jakes-peak


Most of us have skied this line several times. I'd say that getting caught below a 5' crown in this terrain, in most cases, would be unsurvivable - airbag or not.

Let's talk about signs of instability on a tour before coming up to an area just like the one in the video. Here's a pic looking at the bed of the Jakes slide. This terrain looks relatively innocent, right? (other than the younger, smaller trees, hmmm)

The track is even scarier, as it looks JUST like a lot of Powderhouse.


If we had whoomphing on the up or down, I'd hope that most of us would just really watch our asses and flat out avoid anywhere it's wide or steep enough to make fast turns, like in this pic.

What if we don't have whoomphing? As strength improves and the weak layer adjusts to the snow load, whoomphing becomes less common. It may very well be that the first "sign of instability" for a PS or DPS problem might be a slab popping out, just like the one in the video above. Not likely, but possible.

Everyone is free to make their own choices about acceptable consequences, risk, terrain, etc ... I can also appreciate the micro terrain management involved and how everything is very situational. Sometimes I'm not quite as neutral with my comments, especially when I think there's even a slim chance someone could get themselves killed.

I would just ask those of you on skins or popping out of gates to consider this, when choosing and navigating your terrain: What's the certainty you have that this kind of thing (above) won't happen after the storms are done, on the terrain you're skiing, vs. the consequences if you're wrong?


This is just a summary: a deeper discussion, if you care to participate, is ongoing in the Slide Zone subforum.

edited: removed CP ob to confirm location

[SchralphMacchio]

Forecast still on track (this is for above 8000'):
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.....CLOUDY. HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW.
CHC RAIN/SNOW...100%.
LIGHTNING.......NONE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURE.....37 TO 42.
WIND............SOUTHWEST 45 TO 65 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 105 MPH
INCREASING TO 115 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW............70% PROBABILITY...15 TO 30 INCHES MAINLY ABOVE
9000 FEET.
30% PROBABILITY...6 TO 14 INCHES MAINLY BELOW
9000 FEET.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.....CLOUDY. HEAVY SNOW.
CHC RAIN/SNOW...100%.
LIGHTNING.......NONE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURE.....24 TO 29.
WIND............SOUTHWEST 45 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 115 MPH
DECREASING TO 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW............80% PROBABILITY...18 TO 28 INCHES.
20% PROBABILITY...10 TO 18 INCHES.

[TahoeJ]

From the whiners from the west, I hope Lakeview at Alpine finally opened today. Those runs are more steep than the chutes right?

I traversed and hiked over that way from Scott in the middle of last week and found several sweet thigh deep pow turns near the trees, but anything at all exposed was completely wind fucked and my exit wasn't exactly enjoyable. I didn't go back for more. So we haven't been missing much.

Its a weird feeling to be hoping for a letup in the snow before going to resorts.

+1 - I was happy to see a break in the forecast for next weekend when I'll be doing my avy 1. It feels wrong hoping for the snow to stop, albeit temporarily.

[powdrhound]

+1 - I was happy to see a break in the forecast for next weekend when I'll be doing my avy 1. It feels wrong hoping for the snow to stop, albeit temporarily.

The Saturday morning of my Avi 1 weekend, walking into the classroom at 8 am with knee deep fresh on the ground was one of my more difficult decisions.
But it was a fine day to skin out and dig our pits below Sentinel Rock.
Still one of my better weekends.

[~mikey b]

Avalanche Warning in effect. Natural and human caused avalanches likely in all aspects and elevations.



You don't see an all black avalanche rose very often.

[stanmarsh]

Wow danger rating of 6 out of 5 does seem extreme.

[4matic]

Hasn't rained that much east bay.

[roverdoc]

Great post. I am amazed that it seems many people who enjoy the backcountry simply don't look at the forecast. Hoping this next few weeks does not claim any victims. Thank you for the friendly reminder. Be safe out there!

Relevant to BC skiing discussions, not drought ...

Many of you are my friends, really good friends, and I really enjoy skiing with you and your kids - so if I'm asking about terrain choices it's because I'd like to openly discuss experiences in the hope that we can all keep skiing with each other for years to come. I'm not looking to piss on anyone for the sake of ego or pissing contests, just wanted to share something worth thinking about when it comes to acceptable consequences vs. certainty, for all of our personal terrain decisions.

This SAC ob didn't seem to get much airplay earlier this week, at least not as much as a 15' crown from Kirkwood did.

There was a natural slide on Jakes, on the raincrust this week, 5' crown, 8600' elevation, so well well below the ridgeline or treeline. NE face, so in an area where the DPS problem is believed to exist. 35 degree slope angle.
http://www.sierraavalanchecenter.org...hes-jakes-peak


Most of us have skied this line several times. I'd say that getting caught below a 5' crown in this terrain, in most cases, would be unsurvivable - airbag or not.

Let's talk about signs of instability on a tour before coming up to an area just like the one in the video. Here's a pic looking at the bed of the Jakes slide. This terrain looks relatively innocent, right? (other than the younger, smaller trees, hmmm)

The track is even scarier, as it looks JUST like a lot of Powderhouse.


If we had whoomphing on the up or down, I'd hope that most of us would just really watch our asses and flat out avoid anywhere it's wide or steep enough to make fast turns, like in this pic.

What if we don't have whoomphing? As strength improves and the weak layer adjusts to the snow load, whoomphing becomes less common. It may very well be that the first "sign of instability" for a PS or DPS problem might be a slab popping out, just like the one in the video above. Not likely, but possible.

Everyone is free to make their own choices about acceptable consequences, risk, terrain, etc ... I can also appreciate the micro terrain management involved and how everything is very situational. Sometimes I'm not quite as neutral with my comments, especially when I think there's even a slim chance someone could get themselves killed.

I would just ask those of you on skins or popping out of gates to consider this, when choosing and navigating your terrain: What's the certainty you have that this kind of thing (above) won't happen after the storms are done, on the terrain you're skiing, vs. the consequences if you're wrong?


This is just a summary: a deeper discussion, if you care to participate, is ongoing in the Slide Zone subforum.

edited: removed CP ob to confirm location

[SkiBall]

Has Kirkwood been under-reporting lately?

[TahoeJ]

Does anyone have any extra tech soles for pre 2016 Tecnica Cochise boots they're not using currently?