Is the stock market going to tank?

[Bromontana]

Just meant in general, not pharma specific

[4matic]

If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to broad and wall.

[4matic]

This is about as much optimism I have seen in a long while. The effects of monetary policy take a long time to trickle down. It makes sense that consumer sentiment and housing are strong at the tail end of easing. Consumer sentiment tracks stock prices so I suspect it stays strong for a while.

Machines are trying to reach 20k but reality is peak in futures was December 13. If I were waiting to sell cap gains in January I would be selling futures to lock in the gain.

[4matic]

2250 $SPX needs to hold. Below 2248 we go to 2200, possibly in a hurry. Big rally in Treasury today.

[Bromontana]

I put on a large-for-me, unlevered short of the Russell 2k yesterday. First time I've shorted a major index in some time. Thinking 2 to 10 points of downside there, see how it goes. Also bought some bio stuff in case money just rotates.

[Bromontana]

Rotation it is!

[4matic]

Yield plays having a nice run the last two weeks.

[Brock Landers]

Sorry Bro, forgot about this, lot of good reading ill get it together tonight.

Broadly right now, still long dollar short yen and euro. In fact, even longer USD. Wage inflation has picked up fairly drastically the last 5 months. Employment is full. Inflation is going to be ticking way up (I like TIPS) and the Fed is going to have to raise rates fairly quickly. Having a strong growth mandate from Trump, tax cuts, immigration "shit"- all inflationary. All inflationary...at a time when wage inflation is ALREADY ramping up (even before the election) and employment is full...for that reason, I think the Fed is going to be fairly quick on the rate hikes in 2017. Good for USD. All the while Europe still needs to ease, Japan is going to launch another round of QE.

I also would be short CNY. The more and more China tries to break away from the USD peg (even toward a basket which they've already done) the lower it goes.

I like GBP from a valuation perspective. The currency was hit like Brexit is happening tomorrow. IF Brexit even happens it will be years and years and the UK economy can use a cheap currency in the very short term.

I like long US TSY- 30Y is at 3%, good portfolio ballast, and a great fucking yield versus the Bund. Spreads at historical highs (they generally fall into a tight range). Combine this with really no other source of safe (as a TSY) yield at 3% globally, pension funds and other sov buyers out there...and you're good. Especially with the threat of rate hikes coming pretty quick on the front end which could lead to some recessionary forces 2018.

Finally...nat gas. I love it. Getting smoked right now because its 50 degrees out in Boston but the supply demand dynamic is starting to turn and get out of sync. The last 3+ years there has been a supply glut. Capped off with a warm winter last year. Firms have already cut down capex (they did this starting over 2 years ago), drilling in non-Marcellus and Utica has slowed considerably (so capex falling off AND the wells are slowing in non Marcellus/Utica), theres a strong bid from the Power/electric utility industry- coal is dead. Dead. I have some more numbers on this but I'm thinking closer to $4/mmbtu by end March. Of course its weather dependent but even a "normal" winter gets us up over 3.75.

What else...I have a great breakdown of passive versus active management showing active > passive even after fees that's interesting (if anyone has interest let me know)

EDIT- as I typed this, Fed minutes came out saying they may need to be quicker on hiking rates in the near future.

[Bromontana]

Thanks, appreciate the breakdown.

I've struggled to open anything non US because of the relative growth and currency weakness out there.

Currently long in energy utilities, biotech, retail, & domestic energy. Some nice movement in utilities of late & bio is in discouragement phase it seems.

[4matic]

Regarding growth. Macy's getting hammered. Kohls too. Sears is on the verge of bankruptcy. If Sears goes down that's a big deal. 200k employees not to mention the affect on REITS.

I'd watch residential real estate closely the next couple months against higher rates. HD chart could easily roll over.

20k $INDU will happen. At some point we test the breakout on the monthly chart $SPX. That could be days weeks or months but it will happen

http://www.businessinsider.com/list-...closing-2017-1

[4matic]

I like long US TSY- 30Y is at 3%, e.

TY futures starting to wake up and act inverse to stock futures. There are some gaps on the daily and weekly chart too. Sitting right at a three week high.

Mexican peso hitting all time lows today and bitcoin all time highs. Not sure what to make of that but I own a global bond fund thats is loaded with Mexican Treasury and it's doing pretty well.

Edit: If you look at a daily chart of the dollar index vs TY treasury its significant. The spike in the dollar from two days ago looks like a short term top. A move and close below 102 tomorrow on the dollar index puts in a pretty good top.

[Brock Landers]

Mexican peso hitting all time lows today and bitcoin all time highs. Not sure what to make of that but I own a global bond fund thats is loaded with Mexican Treasury and it's doing pretty well.

Templeton? Love the peso now despite usd strength. Similar parallels with sterling.

No idea on bitcoin.

[4matic]

Templeton? Love the peso now despite usd strength. Similar parallels with sterling.

No idea on bitcoin.

Yeah. It's in my plan and was underperforming for years. I finished selling Junk in September and swapped into it on the election sell off. It's a quant fund run by phd's and is hedged long the dollar (down today) so I hope they adjust. It also has a huge cash position which I like at this time. 14% stake. I figured they had to turn it around eventually like OAKIX.

My self directed has to be force liquidated in the next few months. My biggest position PFF looks like it will bail me out in time. EWA and EWC been doing well too.

I also took a 20% stake in PTTRX after selling Emerging and Real Estate in November. I still like Emerging but my timeframe has changed.

[Brock Landers]

Is it templeton global/ run by hasenstab?

Love oakix too. Herro is one of the best value guys out there. Blows it away without dipping into EM. When he has a bad year...automatic buy time. Pimco is decent, if core bond is your thing (I thought you were pulling more triggers yourself vs putting it in an agg fund)? More of why core bond than why pimco

[Benny Profane]

Regarding growth. Macy's getting hammered. Kohls too. Sears is on the verge of bankruptcy. If Sears goes down that's a big deal. 200k employees not to mention the affect on REITS.

I'd watch residential real estate closely the next couple months against higher rates. HD chart could easily roll over.

20k $INDU will happen. At some point we test the breakout on the monthly chart $SPX. That could be days weeks or months but it will happen

http://www.businessinsider.com/list-...closing-2017-1

I was in a Sears on Xmas eve to buy a vacuum cleaner, and it was ghostly empty. And it was right next door to some very busy stores.

[BmillsSkier]

I was in a Sears on Xmas eve to buy a vacuum cleaner, and it was ghostly empty. And it was right next door to some very busy stores.

I've seen Macy's legal department put up a rotating 'help wanted' sign from basically the GC down for more than a year now. Seems no one wants part of that sinking ship.

[abraham]

I was in a Sears on Xmas eve to buy a vacuum cleaner, and it was ghostly empty. And it was right next door to some very busy stores.

There's one near me that's looked that way for at least 5 years. Maybe more. Though the stores nearby weren't always busy

[4matic]

Is it templeton global/ run by hasenstab?

Love oakix too. Herro is one of the best value guys out there. Blows it away without dipping into EM. When he has a bad year...automatic buy time. Pimco is decent, if core bond is your thing (I thought you were pulling more triggers yourself vs putting it in an agg fund)? More of why core bond than why pimco

Pimco was a place to park money at low risk when I thought Treasury was bottoming a month or so ago.
I like using some mutual funds in my deferred account. It promotes long term holding.

I have taxable and tax deferred accounts. I don't trade a lot but I do make fast aggressive Changes now and then. My taxable is 40% margined. In that I own PCQ, OAK, T, and VZ. I sold BRK and JPM.

I have a job change coming in June and the company is restructuring so I need to get ready to liquidate my current deferred.

Treasury moving sharply higher and the dollar is getting smacked tonight

Tgbax is my global bond fund. I probably need to sell it soon. Nice gain was a gift and I can't afford to hold it long term with time risk.

[Benny Profane]

Speaking of Sears:

"Sears Holdings Corp. said it reached a deal to sell its iconic Craftsman brand to Stanley Black & Decker Inc. for about $900 million, as the cash-strapped retailer continues to seek ways to whittle down its debt.

Sears will continue to offer Craftsman-branded products through a perpetual license from Stanley Black & Decker, which will be royalty free for the first 15 years after closing. The deal gives Stanley the rights to develop, manufacture and sell Craftsman-branded products outside of Sears."

My father spins in his grave. That's like the Yankees selling DiMaggio at his career best.

[JimmyCarter]

Speaking of Sears:

"Sears Holdings Corp. said it reached a deal to sell its iconic Craftsman brand to Stanley Black & Decker Inc. for about $900 million, as the cash-strapped retailer continues to seek ways to whittle down its debt.

Sears will continue to offer Craftsman-branded products through a perpetual license from Stanley Black & Decker, which will be royalty free for the first 15 years after closing. The deal gives Stanley the rights to develop, manufacture and sell Craftsman-branded products outside of Sears."

My father spins in his grave. That's like the Yankees selling DiMaggio at his career best.

Actually a smart move for them, though it reeks of "the writing is on the wall".
Why wait until liquidation to dump assets when you can have someone pay you higher value for them until you go out of business? Eddie needs to get some cash flow on his investment.

[4matic]

19999.63. I'd guess the risk is gap and go on Monday with another 5% higher without looking back. It will take an external event for a big down day. Troubling (for me) that treasury couldn't hold gains against weakish data. That's bearish treasury.

[Benny Profane]

Trump makes a reasonable man look bad. http://www.wsj.com/articles/investor...out-1483876837

If Buffet post tech crash is any indication, don't give up on this guy.

[Brock Landers]

Way to play nat gas- range resources and rice energy. There's some small company risk w rice but I love the supply demand of gas and these 2 (along w consol) are in the best rock in the best areas of the Marcellus.
That's all. Rates down again today, will start legging into gold companies (I like usd vs yen/euro and I like gold companies somehow)

[4matic]

Today could be the day. Ticking like it wants to blow out.

[Benny Profane]

The day for what?