Is the stock market going to tank?

**digitaldeath** · 11-15-2016, 01:32 PM

http://www.kitco.com/market/

**4matic** · 11-15-2016, 03:20 PM

Yield plays has nice move despite weak bond futures.

**4matic** · 11-15-2016, 08:55 PM

If the Nikkei can stay above 17,700 on Friday it will be the highest weekly close in 2016.

**Bromontana** · 11-16-2016, 12:24 AM

Hopium stage confirmed

Final stage of bull market in motion. 1 month or 10, or more?

Few weeks ago angel investors were rubbing out to colonizing Mars. Elon a fraud yo.

Ok

**smitchell333** · 11-17-2016, 09:18 AM

Crazy stuff market going up up up

I guess that I get what some of the possible Dynamics are: tax cuts (esp high income levels), Inflationary fiscal infrastructure and defense spending, etc

On the other hand so much of it is speculative whether or not or what details of these changes would be. Couple that with possible negatives such as trade war over possible protectionist actions and I'm not sure how I see justification for maintaining these heights.

What think you?

**406** · 11-17-2016, 09:45 AM

running it up so they can have a big drop when Yellen ups the rate, getting more headlines. Or to have a bigger drop if DJT does something they don't like.

**Bromontana** · 11-17-2016, 09:52 AM

We are collectively "they". A friend of mine thinks Donald is the Fed's fall guy, but I don't buy into that complex a narrative.

Just a final phase in a nother bull market / expansionary phase. Someone on twitter noted the election bond selloff as a preshock, which seems appropriate for a few reasons. Decline in USTs following a few decades of appreciation, reaching peak supply side governance, etc.

**smitchell333** · 11-17-2016, 10:04 AM

Originally Posted by Bromontana

We are collectively "they". A friend of mine thinks Donald is the Fed's fall guy, but I don't buy into that complex a narrative.

Just a final phase in a nother bull market / expansionary phase. Someone on twitter noted the election bond selloff as a preshock, which seems appropriate for a few reasons. Decline in USTs following a few decades of appreciation, reaching peak supply side governance, etc.

Although the bond selloff would just line up with inflationary expectations, right?
Future rates going up = your lower rate bonds down in value.

**Bromontana** · 11-17-2016, 10:44 AM

Sure, the idea is a flood from bonds into equity, pushing equities up before eventual downturn. So final stage in bull equities market aided by flight from bonds.

Not trying to fear monger, just trying to understand the high level move in perspective. Nothing new under the sun.

**smitchell333** · 11-17-2016, 10:57 AM

Originally Posted by Bromontana

Sure, the idea is a flood from bonds into equity, pushing equities up before eventual downturn. So final stage in bull equities market aided by flight from bonds.

Not trying to fear monger, just trying to understand the high level move in perspective. Nothing new under the sun.

Yeah the markets are just a balance between greed and fear so I hear you.

Not that I believe entirely in it but the argument would be re equities if the inflationary pressure is greater than deflationary then prices go up along with the inflation. Another way of saying it might be if nominal earnings go up then price goes up without P/E getting inflated to bubble levels.

What makes you think that it's at final bull stage beyond the flight from bonds (my gut is that you're right but looking for the reasoning)?

**4matic** · 11-17-2016, 02:26 PM

3% on the 30 year. I'd almost take that and walk away.

**iceman** · 11-17-2016, 02:53 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

3% on the 30 year. I'd almost take that and walk away.

What would it have to be before you'd definitely do it?

**Benny Profane** · 11-17-2016, 03:29 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

3% on the 30 year. I'd almost take that and walk away.

At this point I may be dreaming, but, 5. 5 for the rest of my life? OK.

**406** · 11-17-2016, 05:18 PM

At the quarterly 401k meeting, my company provided finance advisor said big uptick in stocks is from many expecting the Congress to actually get to work and pass corporate tax reform first part of next year and there would be lots of money moving back into USA. Evidently, there isn't much difference in the Rep & Dem plan, the Rep just wanted to make sure Obama didn't get any credit.

**Cono Este** · 11-17-2016, 05:29 PM

Originally Posted by 406

At the quarterly 401k meeting, my company provided finance advisor said big uptick in stocks is from many expecting the Congress to actually get to work and pass corporate tax reform first part of next year and there would be lots of money moving back into USA. Evidently, there isn't much difference in the Rep & Dem plan, the Rep just wanted to make sure Obama didn't get any credit.

You should just send your moneynto Haiti.

**406** · 11-17-2016, 05:33 PM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

You should just send your moneynto Haiti.

Via Clinton Foundation :-)

**Brock Landers** · 11-17-2016, 06:23 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

At this point I may be dreaming, but, 5. 5 for the rest of my life? OK.

If you're holding to maturity- or at least a long time- you can get 5 fairly easily without taking a tremendous amount of credit risk (interest rate risk doesn't exist if you are set w 5% and holding to maturity)

**Cono Este** · 11-17-2016, 06:45 PM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

If you're holding to maturity- or at least a long time- you can get 5 fairly easily without taking a tremendous amount of credit risk (interest rate risk doesn't exist if you are set w 5% and holding to maturity)

On what?

**4matic** · 11-17-2016, 06:52 PM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

On what?

The HYG only yields 5.5 and that is b rated and below. The LQD is 3.2. Not sure where you get a 30 year not callable guaranteed yield higher than US treasury.

**4matic** · 11-17-2016, 06:53 PM

Dollar index is roaring ahead. That used to be a negative for stocks. Higher yields and strong dollar.

**Cono Este** · 11-17-2016, 07:04 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

The HYG only yields 5.5 and that is b rated and below. The LQD is 3.2. Not sure where you get a 30 year not callable guaranteed yield higher than US treasury.

Yep

Hyg traded from a high of 105 in march 2007 to a low of 65 in Oct 2008.

Id rather have the Clinton foundation send my money to Haiti.

**4matic** · 11-17-2016, 07:21 PM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

Yep

Hyg traded from a high of 105 in march 2007 to a low of 65 in Oct 2008.

Id rather have the Clinton foundation send my money to Haiti.

I was using those yields as a surrogate for individual bonds. The problem with individual HY bonds is they are shorter duration and often get called away leaving you without income. It's difficult to plan long term income if your source gets called away.

Peso bonds look interesting about now.

**Cono Este** · 11-17-2016, 07:34 PM

I hear ya.

People are chasing yield, or being sold it, without understanding the risks.

I think you buy stocks if you're going to take risk. Im sure you agree.

**Brock Landers** · 11-17-2016, 07:37 PM

Have to go out the yield curve, hy bonds are too short, so you're getting the yield via credit risk. If you're holding to maturity anyway, a lot of muni, ig credit, longer term high grade structured can get that yield.

**Cono Este** · 11-17-2016, 07:46 PM

Treausries have tanked since the election. Interesting. I guess less regulations/pro growth admin will spook the fed. 90% chance of rate hike.

I wouldnt touch anything past 2 yrs.