Is the stock market going to tank?

[Bromontana]

Define your timeframe-define your risk.

words to trade/invest by, seems pedantic or banal until you lose a few paychecks ignoring it.

here's my framework on TWTR. bought early june anticipating a breakout, held through a test of the lower bound of the range (the 14 figure 4M notes), buyers responded well to pull it up and eventually breakout to a new, higher value area. So I added in the low 16s. Now time for patience in most cases as the auction digests new value and prepares for the next move up or down. I trimmed the portion that was added in the 16s in the 17s because I'm a scurred.

the higher you buy in any given value area the more risk you must take on to truly test your thesis. In my case I held 15.3s through 13.8s in the hopes of 20s. So far so good. My risk can stay at the sub 14 level or I can profit take, all a matter of personal preference.



larger version :: http://tos.mx/4xxOLa?image

[shafty85]

words to trade/invest by, seems pedantic or banal until you lose a few paychecks ignoring it.

here's my framework on TWTR. bought early june anticipating a breakout, held through a test of the lower bound of the range (the 14 figure 4M notes), buyers responded well to pull it up and eventually breakout to a new, higher value area. So I added in the low 16s. Now time for patience in most cases as the auction digests new value and prepares for the next move up or down. I trimmed the portion that was added in the 16s in the 17s because I'm a scurred.

the higher you buy in any given value area the more risk you must take on to truly test your thesis. In my case I held 15.3s through 13.8s in the hopes of 20s. So far so good. My risk can stay at the sub 14 level or I can profit take, all a matter of personal preference.



larger version :: http://tos.mx/4xxOLa?image

I have no clue what was just said here...

[digitaldeath]

i have no set timeframe

this is long term play


please explain it to me as if i was a golden retriever


many thanks

[digitaldeath]

please explain it to me as if i was a golden retriever

[Bromontana]

which words don't make sense? I'll clarify anything but you have to try to learn .

Or you can go to the horse's mouth. This guy's primary mentor is a billionaire. I figure he's a good one to learn to understand. Get that far and the pieces start to fit. Fwiw I've had to read and reread his blogs many times to absorb the material. It's dense, but there's no purer way to study market behavior in my opinion. 4M's guidance helped reinforce this earlier this year.

http://www.tradeonthefly.com/2015/07...to-my-trading/

[digitaldeath]

your boy says either you are a rookie or retired


so is twtr in high volume node?

trend mode?




i see walls and windows but no doors

[shafty85]

I believe the TWTR is the stock you bought? The 'test through the lower bound' was the stock losing value? Then, for some reason, people bought and the price rose higher? Not sure what's meant by 'higher value area'. Auction digests new value? Trimmed the portion that was added in the 16s in the 17s? And then the last paragraph about testing thesis, etc?

[Bromontana]

the moment you stop learning is the moment your ego has taken priority over growth.

TWTR is oscillating around within a new HVN (high volume node). Conviction (trend) is up on lower timeframes, consistent with the thesis of a bullish reversal.

It's easier to establish a position before trend starts than during, lower volatility and less emotion in the instrument to distract you from the important things. Managing a trade during trend is very hard, so personally I'm a bit lost now to be honest.

I believe the TWTR is the stock you bought? The 'test through the lower bound' was the stock losing value? Then, for some reason, people bought and the price rose higher? Not sure what's meant by 'higher value area'. Auction digests new value? Trimmed the portion that was added in the 16s in the 17s? And then the last paragraph about testing thesis, etc?

Yes, I bought some in early June, then after it broke up into the 16s.

Test the lower bound... yes, losing value. A zone of value, or high volume node, is a structural and objective aspect of an instrument (equity, futures, bonds, doesn't matter - nearly all operate by the same auction process). So during what's called 'rotation' or 'channelling' or 'consolidation' or 'finding balance / maturing balance' you have rotation. Rotation is movement up and down that isn't trend, but just oscillation devoid of any real meaning aside from price movement.

It's never a guarantee that any value area will stand up to selling pressure, or yield to buying pressure. They are simply attributes you can monitor... position relative to the value range.

Higher value area = simple means a new range (16-19 now for twtr imo, where the auction is steadily adding volume and validating the market's move higher. The move is validated because people are willing to buy and sell at a given price, it's self reinforcing behavior. Everyone has a different goal and timeframe and risk tolerance and that's why some people are willing to sell even in uptrend.

Auction digests new value = when an instrument pushes into a new price range that price will be either rejected (reversal) or accepted (consolidation / channelling). Rejection can be to the upside or the downside, so trend can blow through value nodes all day long if the market rejects sequential value areas. With TWTR now, value is being explored within the new range. I consider it consolidation but it could reject current price next hour or next trading session and go up or down to a different value region.

I bought in the 15s, waited for the breakout, then added once the price held above the prior value area's upper boundary of mid 15s. I did this on the anticipation of TWTR establishing new value between 16-19. And then sold the portion of my position that was added in the 16s in the 17s because I wanted to capture profits and reduce my exposure in anticipation of rotation around the new value area.

Thesis = your trade plan, summarized by your entry, plans for exiting, risk definition (where will I cut if I lose on the trade?) and timeframe (how long is my window for this trade? days, weeks, months, years, decades?)

[digitaldeath]

it is coincidence that i am looking to buy during the trend / high node

[Bromontana]

it is coincidence that i am looking to buy during the trend / high node

I believe it is not coincidence . That is the nature of the human animal.

TWTR could go to zero tomorrow for all I know. The most I can do is understand the structure of the auction and behave in a rational and methodical way. Failure is guaranteed; it's the way you manage failure that determines if you succeed in aggregate.

[digitaldeath]

http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/s...ock?highlight=

[Bromontana]

http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/s...ock?highlight=

[digitaldeath]

im about to buy 50 shares at 17.7

my roof is 18$ as i can secure 50 shares for 900$


tell me why i should wait

or why i should put it all on the line this afternoon

is today a good day in general or will friday be better time to buy - regardless of stock choice

[Bromontana]

That I don't know. The best I can do is help you understand what you're doing - the why. Entries are hard for multi-decade traders. Maybe 4m can give his perspective on the overall market. Right now I see a nascent breakout in some indices that is in motion. Kind of jumping on the train between stations, you don't know when it will stop or how far it will go before stopping.

I've sold into this rally and am waiting for more information before buying anything.

[Timberridge]

You'll be fine until Italy goes DD.

[4matic]

Rotation back to defensive quality today which has been the theme for a while. My Muni CEF funds are getting crushed. That's ok because the income is safe but anything levered is down today and that includes growth stocks like TWTR, TSLA, AMZN, etc. Happy with My BRK.B. Sold 25% of my Junk yesterday and looking to sell more.

[digitaldeath]

No cleared funds. Please allow for 3 business days from the date of a personal check and/or ACH deposit for the funds to be considered cleared and available for trading.

[4matic]

TWTR has earnings on Tuesday. Hold your breath. I suspect it will not run a lot higher into earnings after a 20% move. Be aware that you face that risk as the stock can easily move 20% either way on the news.

[PNWbrit]

im about to buy 50 shares at 17.7

my roof is 18$ as i can secure 50 shares for 900$


tell me why i should wait

or why i should put it all on the line this afternoon

is today a good day in general or will friday be better time to buy - regardless of stock choice

No cleared funds. Please allow for 3 business days from the date of a personal check and/or ACH deposit for the funds to be considered cleared and available for trading.

[digitaldeath]

not my fault the way its listed is deceptive

[4matic]

not my fault the way its listed is deceptive

100% your fault. You are already making excuses for failure. Better to just stay out.

[El Chupacabra]

not my fault the way its listed is deceptive

Buy! Buy! Buy!

Or..... maybe.....

Sell! Sell! Sell!

[digitaldeath]

you stupid bootlickers


send me verified funds if i fucked up so badly


the fucking brokerage house shows available credit to trade and then tells me check hasnt cleared after i expose my position

[digitaldeath]

im just going to tell them to send my money back with 10% interest

[PNWbrit]

my position

Head stuck up ass?